Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240711 : c

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240711

The dow coming off its first close ever above 30,000. Still down 180 a lot of focus continues to be on the socalled cyclical trade, energy, banks, airlines all pacing for their best month ever rob, its good to see you again. I come to you first because your note to our producer today really piqued my interest. The last three weeks, you say, were transformational. How so i think going into this, scott, we did not have a prospect for a stimulus plan it pivoted focus to the virus and the virus count really, really increasing. Since then youve had three months of very, very positive news on the virus front. Youve had an election outcome that appears to be more and more benign with the actions of the with the actions of our president elect. Specifically nominating janet yellen it looks like it was an outcome that was squarely middle of the fairway that was not too far left, not too far right. Really goldilocks like from my perspective. Now youre at a place where when you look at major pivot points historically, whether it be coming out of the Gold Standard or volcker in raising Interest Rates in the 80s, the tech bubble, the financial crisis, those have been major pivot points for markets and youve seen major shifts in terms of how investors are allocated. And i think this latest move could be the beginning of such a shift. Im not saying tech needs to underperform im saying i think the whole market can go up, and i think where investors want to be is in the catchup trade i dont think thats sorry. I dont think thats a straight line, though and i think you can pick your spots. But certainly looking out into mid21 as they accelerate and news trickles, i think its going to be positive you and others agree, clearly for what the landscape holds moving forward. Carrie, lets set the scene, if you will i look to come out with these lists and have us debate sort of where we are and what the state of play is we know that stocks have run a lot. Dow, 30k, thats a milestone s p, new record. The vaccine, i wonder if its baked in at this point, at least some people are wonder whether the markets tired or it needs a breather yes, you have the transition under way. Key nominees are known, as rob said janet yellen got the market all excited yesterday. What, though, the catalyst now to take stocks higher, lets say, over the next couple of months is there a catalyst left well, i think one of the best catalysts we could come up with is the market is broadened remember, for the first nine months of the year it was really a tech and platform communication kind of market the number of s p names that had beaten the s p as of the beginning of this quarter was about 38 or less. And now its 60 of stocks are beating the s p. That had to happen in order for the whole market to move higher. It was getting too narrow. In addition, if you look at earnings estimates, those numbers are also starting to inch upward. Even if we look at first and Second Quarter earnings for 2021, when well still have covid through the country. Everyones not going to be vaccinated those numbers are moving up. Third and Fourth Quarter 21 numbers are moving higher. Most companies in the s p beat their estimates on revenue and for earnings in the third quarter. That wasnt that difficult. That wasnt that difficult, right . Of course, of course. And you could have beat the estimate, right . Absolutely. Lets temper the enthusiasm a little bit based on where expectations were. My question, steve weiss, now, is okay, a lot of stocks focused around the reopen have already moved a lot. The boeing at 50 . The airlines, the cruise lines, some of the retailers. We went through the list yesterday. Nordstrom right now, monthtodate is up 139 in this month. Hotel stocks im looking at, more retailers like kohls up 50 . Is there room left in the near term for them . In my view, i dont think they should be where they are. I think theyve gotten ahead of themselves, clearly ahead of the fundamentals its not just that things arent going to return to normal for a while. Particularly with the airlines and Business Travel thats going to be, i think, permanently impacted its that these stocks are trading as if covid never happened no matter that youre closed, a lot of them, and taken capacity out of a lot of them in terms of store closings, et cetera, now you expect those stocks to do better than they were doing better before where you still have the same issues affecting those industries so i think thats purely been momentum trades. Momentum trades go until they dont go, but theyre not trading up on any type of reasonable fundamentals. They should not explode when a vaccine is actually in the market theyve exploded already but does that mean i cant buy any if im watching today . Im sorry to interrupt you if im watching, i cant buy any of the socalled reopen or epicenter stocks i mean, how do you make the differentiation of ones that shouldnt be where they are versus ones that still have a lot of room to run well, i think you can buy some the ones you can buy have been ones that have changed their Business Model a little bit. That have responded to that are seeing increased interest in what they do and what they bring to the market versus before. So, to me, that includes some of the Technology Names to me, that includes, if you take a you know, a salesforce they look at slack as we may talk about. But thats not an epicenter stock. Come on, thats not a reenter stock. Lets talk about honeywell, a stocky recently bought honeywell is look, theyre doing more and more both on the esg side theyre doing more in the automation side. So, theyre positioning themselves better for the work from home, the stay at home, the work anywhere type environment the autos, youre going to see less people taking Mass Transportation so, you can still buy those. So, yeah, there are some you can buy. Can you still buy zoom here . Zoom is staying with us forever. But is the valuation staying with us forever . I dont think i think so i think much of the inroads have already been made. Joe, maybe the socalled reopen or epicenter stocks are getting harder to fine, ones that are okay to buy after the kind of gains that i laid out for you. However, leave it to tom lee, our buddy tom lee to find more because hes added now 14 names to his, quote unquote, epicenter trifecta list. They include a number of energy stocks, discretionary names, hasbro, polaris, financials, mgic, jb hunt, energy, helmerichip and national oil well, pioneer, hollyfrontier, marathon petroleum, phillips 66, sonoco, vornado. Maybe hes searching far and wide to find new names do these make sense to you toms done an excellent job identifying stocks that are highly heaviered to the announcement of a vaccine and the expectation for a quick reopening. Two names stand out here for me. Number one would be j. B. Hunt. That is a name that youre purchasing not just specifically on reopening but also the quality of its Balance Sheet vornado, that is directly related to a reopening here in new york city. They have a lot of real estate assets that are tethered to new york city. So i think what tom is doing is answering your uestion, scott. I think youre trying to identify whats the difference between an epicenter reopening stock and then a stock that really is a falling knife that seems to be rallying here in the last five to ten days. Let me just give you a quick illustration on that if i go back from when the Pfizer Vaccine was announced on monday the 9th, the s p is up about 3. 5 if i look at the Top Performing 100 stocks in the s p 500, since that moment, do you know, scott, only five of those stocks are actually higher yeartodate so, that tells you what weve kind of transitioned towards here this is really about the falling knives beginning to participate, in addition to a lot of the epicenter stocks that had already been participating toms done a great job identifying those already. Yeah. Jon najarian, what do you make of these additions are we trying too hard to find other reopen or epicenter stocks that are worthy of buying right now . It is getting harder. And i think to everybodys point, when you have some of these stocks, even the vegas stocks, scott, and we know how its been impacted, whether its vegas sands, whether its winn, mgm, cesars, a lot have come back to, within, 75 or 80 of where they were prior. And yet the business is nowhere near that level. To steves point so, one of them that i talked about yesterday for unusual, sabre is less than half of where it was back in januaryfebruary time frame where we got this hammering. So, i think that is what youre looking for. Youre looking for stocks, scott, that are somewhere in that 50 or less even, if you can find them, range of their january and february numbers not necessarily chasing the ones that are already up there 75 or 80 of it. Yes, there is still alpha in some of those names, but i think theres far more in a stock like sabre that, you know, we all know if youre booking hotels and airfares and moving onto things like that, if people are starting to get rolling again in that space, these guys are right at the epicenter of that, to borrow from tom lee. So, thats what im looking for, scott. Those are the ones that im still adding to. The others are the ones that im lightening up on am i exiting completely . No but am i lightening up or selling at the money against it . Yes. Youre still going to have this debate. Its not going to go anywhere. Its going to continue into next year over growth versus value, what is deemed to be cheap, still cheap or a willingness to continue to pay up for growth. You know, as you look at the stocks that have had great runs. That leads me to the salesforce and slack news that the wall street journal has broken steve weiss mentioned salesforce, in talks and has been in talks, apparently, to buy slack. I want to welcome in josh brown, whos called in on the brown he used to own slack, if you recall so i wanted his take on this from somebody who knows that Company Better than most josh, thanks for calling in. Yeah, so, scott, this was the deal that i always thought made the most sense and that i thought would some day happen and we dont know if it will definitely happen, but this is such a nobrainer. Its such a home run for salesforce its a great exit for slack shareholders, assuming no activist comes along and tries to stop it and for users, its going to be incredible because im a huge salesforce customer. Salesforce has a service full of chatter built into it. And my employees sometimes use it but prefer slack. I can see salesforce removing chatter, having slack be that inhouse employee dialogue engine, and then employees could assign each other salesforce tasks directly in slack. It would just be a phenomenal combination. And the other thing i would tell you about this, this pits salesforce against microsoft this is going to be absolutely epic microsoft has up to 75 million teams users. Slack is at 12 million users which is impressive. They were at 6 million when microsoft invented teams but theyre so far behind that i almost feel like they need to do this deal. And then salesforce on day one, once this closes, could zoom that number up salesforce has 150,000 paying customer companies, about 83 of the fortune 500 companies, using salesforce those are all potential slack users. So a couple of questions off that, if you were optimistic about slack for so long, when you owned it, why did you ever get out of it . I just felt the pressure being put on the company, and Stewart Butterfield has been quoted saying microsoft is killing slack, there were easier trades to make i bought slack the day it ipod. I added to it, i added it to in april when markets were crushed and i got out at 29 on august 24th i had to look back i probably left some money on the table but there were too many other trades that i felt were easier. The other interesting point, i think, is it speaks to the overall conversation, josh, that were having, and we have every day about the willingness to pay up for growth. Not only as were now learning from investors themselves, but from companies that want to do deals with these companies that no one had heard of a year ago now youre willing to pay up if youre a salesforce for the kind of growth that a slack would deliver for you that would enable you to better compete with microsoft in certain areas. Now, salesforce is up 56 yeartodate our dom chu points out on twitter, thats a lot of capital to work with if youre salesforce, and the journal talks no price he with dont know what kind of premium were talking about, but slack has been no slouch when it comes to its own stock gain. Those are all kind of things to consider in the context of this potential deal yeah. So, heres whats important. Its like a chicken and egg thing. People say, oh, facebook stole instagram. They got it for 1 billion instagram would never have grown to the size that it did had they not been bought by facebook. And facebook mapped its entire social graph over to instagram and tens of millions of new users within the first few months started using the app so, its salesforce takes slack, they can use slack as almost like a premium way for people to start slowly coming into the salesforce ecosystem, who could then be upsold that Enterprise Software so, slack has more potential as being part of salesforce than it does on a standalone basis because of the might that salesforce has and its inroads into the fortune 500. Thats really what the potential look, its transformative for salesforce, i think. It will be the biggest acquisition theyve ever done. Enterprise value right now is assuming this is the premium already. Youre talking like 20, 21 billion. The only ordeal theyve done close was tableau and that was probably transfirmtive i think benioff is the guy that could really build slack so, if youre a salesforce shareholder, i think that thats how you win. Yeah. Thats exactly why i wanted you to call in i so much appreciate your insight. Thank you, josh. Well see you later on closing bell. Happy thanksgiving. Love you guys. Happy thanksgiving. You can catch josh on closing bell. Jon najarian, i dont think you own slack but everybody owns microsoft so you can address it from that angle, if youd like yeah. Well, number one, scott, there was huge buying on slack calls today just ahead of this announcement somebodys going to take a hard look at that and just as we were coming on air, the volume in the calls was up over 67,000 to 14,000 puts. Thats way above normal. And now its right now at 119,000 calls. So, its almost doubled while weve been on air, the number of volume traded in the calls, upside calls of slack, scott i got to believe this deal, if a deal indeed does happen, and it certainly seems like it, happens north of 40, probably 41, 42 the june high was right around 40 and even though weve gone nearly parabolic here, scott, breaking to 38 or thereabouts just moments ago, i think it goes north of 40 on a deal that doesnt mean we go there today. To your point about microsoft, this is still the killer microsoft embeds this with everything thats part of that ecosystem, scott, which means you subscribe to microsoft 360 youre getting all of the goods with that, and then they just keep making things like teams better google has meet. Again, zoom. Both of those guys going after zoom and now youve got microsoft obviously with a real focus on slack. And you dont think that focus gets even more so if this goes over to crm salesforce i think benioff has a real im not saying theres only going to be one. This isnt highlander. But i do think youre going to see microsoft really go after crm in a big way here. So, another microsoft holder, carrie, your thoughts . Well, we own a lot of crm, more crm than microsoft. I think this is a great deal for them if it happens remember, in the middle of august, crm was 60 billion lower in market value than it is now. So, this deal can cost them 20, 25 billion. Its not going to touch the gain weve had in appreciation on the salesforce stock itself. And remember that during all of covid, what youve this is an acceleration of adoption, of various crm systems across the world as people have been able to integrate their entire enterprise thats been remote in a way that it would have taken years for that to happen for salesforce so, i think this is a perfect time to do it. And i think they would welcome the competition from microsoft i love microsoft, but a huge fan of salesforce. I also like to its rate what you said about the growth side of things. It just shows that where theres growth in sales and earnings, its worth something and its you have to Pay Attention to that relative to the valuation that weve now given to, you know, some of these reopen plays, the value side, the cyclical side. They do not have that type of upside and just if you could put that chart up, theres a little table that vin made for me today crm is a pretty expensive stock, but still the Growth Potential in deals like this is much more than what youre going to get out of the reopening trade some of those stocks, as you said, are getting pretty expensive and trade pretty close, very close to where some of the Big Growth Companies are trading right now. Weiss, youve got to pay up if you want some of the action, right . Thats what weve learned, if nothing else, throughout the pandemic yeah. And youre paying up for quality. And i dont want to pay up look, heres how i look at it. Youve got to be youre either a stock investor or a fundamental investor if youre a stock investor and when im investing in honeywell, i think its a little elevated in valuation, its because i think it will go higher. As a fundamental investor and a stock investor, im getting that in some of my other names. Those are my longterm plays so, thats whether its qualcomm or whether its jamia, also a stock and fundamental play, thats where i get that. So, you have to know what youre doing and why youre doing it. In terms of salesforce, if theyre using stock for this acquisition, then they should go do it. The stocks gotten not cheap its expensive i think it will continue to be expensive, because it always has been, but you should use it as a currency its a phenomenal currency to use. But i dont mind paying up, taking a longterm view, a year, two years, three years, five years for a core position if i think its going to eventually exceed what i paid for it. But, i mean, im looking at some of the moves youre making. It strikes me that youre trimming from areas that have had big growth, particularly in the last few months. You know, apple notwithstanding. Thats had great growth all year long youve tripped apple, you trimmed qualcomm, you trimmed qorvo. Does that tell me youre rethinking the runway thats ahead or at least the power play in these stocks moving for

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