Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240711 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 11, 2024

Moderna says its vaccine is nearly 95 effective moderna up 9 , 10 right now while the other vaccine stocks are actually dipping we are awaiting president elect bide wren to give remarks about state of the economy after meeting with top Business Leaders and ceos today well get you there when it happens as power lunch starts right now. Thank you, ty. The dow was soaring to alltime highs, just shy of 30,000 today. All signs pointing to a continued rally except for one, a very important one lets go to bob pisani for more on that. Bob . We are seeing that moderna is helping the market overall and continuing a trend that we saw for the last really week and a half lets take a look at the sectors here the story is valuelike banks and Energy Stocks has been outperforming growth areas Like Technology for example nen weve seen cyclical sectors like industrials, for example. Generally outperforming defensive sectors like consumer staples. Generally small caps have been outperforming big caps in is this is a big, big move that weve seen a lot of money is sloshing around between these different categories you can just see whats going on in november. Ill give you a quick overview of whats been happening here. American express up 30 , chevron up 26 , jpmorgan up 18 , caterpillar. These are all cyclicals value stocks that are all rallying on the hopes that were going to be able to see over the covid Winter Valley that we have here in the next few months and into what i call the reopening spring of 2021. Thats what thats been all about for the last several days pee here weve seen big moves up in some of these reits recently. Simon Property Group was 62, 78 today. Last week we saw an astonishing rally in all of the refiners its like everyone decided to take a vacation in the spring of 2021 theres holly, a big refiner this is in six or seven trading sessions its up 30 take a look at some of the other groups a little bit of weakness might be surprised to see some of the big pharma names, all a bit on the weak side overall quite a rally and still continuing back to you. Thank you, bob pisani todays market rally brought to you by moderna it says its covid19 vaccine is 95 effective. Meg . That met a very big high rate last week. The way they get the efficacy figure, they look at how many cases they saw in the trial. 95 people had covid, five received placebos. They also looked at severe cases of covid19 and saw 11 in the trial, none of which were among the people who got the vaccine it suggests the vaccine is effective against the really bad cases. They said they saw no significant safety concerns. They wont be easy vaccines to take there are two shots and did property levels of fatigue, muscle and joint pain after the second shot. And the question will turn to supply moderna said it should have 20 million bostodoses in the unite states by the end of 2020 and 500 million to a billion available next wreeyear this is a twoshot vaccine we talked about why they could affect capacity. The reason we are not able to make a billion dollars right away is this is our first commercial product we did not have the older it technologies, manufacturing capacity already built we had to build everything this year the good news is that we will be ready with manufacturing capacity and also want to engage with governments to see how we can do more work to get prepared i dont know if you caught there, he said the next outbreak because there will be more thats scary to think about. Still Unanswered Questions about these vaccines, including do they protect against infection completely or just symptom atic Decemb Decemb disease . How long does the protection last how long do the vaccines maintain their ability to inoculate you from the disease is there anything in the data weve seen so far that even goe to those things . I sure didnt see it on friesfriese Pfizer Biontech would that mean that this, like the flu virus, would be something youd have to get a vaccine for every year potentially . Possibly. If the vaccine protection is wears off after about a year you are might have to greta booster shot every year. Its not the same reason we have to get a flu shot every year thats because the strains change it could be a similar situation where we have to get a booster or if it becomes so subdued it not a risk, maybe you wouldnt have to get a booster either the dow on track for its first record closing high since, drum roll, february 12th on these vaccine hopes that continue to drive the market for more on where we go next, lets bring in greg branch and larry adam, chief investment at raymond james. Greg, bob pisani was just outlining what he i think was saying was a rotation in the market away from big tech or tech and towards some of the more unloved sector do you thin thats a trend, an indicator of whats coming into 2021 . I do see that 2021 is likely to look a lot like 2010 to 2012 looks, where we saw cyclicals value go faster off of a bottom than tech looks. Sure enough, consensus next year expects tech to grow around 15 while it expects the broader s p minus tech to grow at 35 . Its hard to maintain a premium multiple when other sectors are growing much faster than tech or typical growth is. Now is a great time to go value shopping, look to things that are on sale that have driple dig digit. Were talking banks, were talking energy and some of those unloved ones, but, larry, you are say tech is no wreck and is a good place to put some money, even at todays valuations and youre not persuaded that the value play is ready to roll. No, i still prefer the stayathome names as opposed to the reopening trade. First of all, this economy is going to struggle over the next couple of months i think thats going to be more hurtful to those more economically sensitive sectors i think fiscal stimulus is going to happen at the beginning of next year. If you look at the history of what happened with the first stimulus, what was it spent on technology and health care im not in agreement when it comes to valuations. When you look at some of the valuations of the reopening trades, airlines and hotels dont have earnings projected for next year. Restaurants in the 80th percentile you get much better valuation still because those earnings have kept pace with some of the price action that youve seen. Greg, you want to respond to larry . I do actually so stock picking and sector picking is important i am not arguing for any whole sale by volume there are certain consumer discretionaries trading at half their historical average in terms of valuation stock picking is important he brings up a good point. Airlines is not something investigated, but there are Business Models with we can see what their business will look like next year, where theyll swing from a loss to earnings and dividend on the low end of the spectrum next year money. Larry, you point to go ahead, larry let he finish it up with you we just showed some airlines, some cruise lines, et cetera they must be moving up purely, i would say, purely on the vaccine hopes and will the vaccine plus stimulus equal a very nice 2021 for stocks im optimistic longer term on stocks i think you will have an earnings rebound i think once we get through that First Quarter and we do have access to the vaccine, i think that will help with the recover moe are bro more broadly i think were setting up for a pretty good 2021 i would think theres still some other catalyst out there dont forget, you got 5g, e commerce growing for health care, were going to be fighting this disease for a while. The good news is that theyre some of the biggest sectors within the s p 500 so it should tib to drive it higherin im getting frustrated with my 5g i have the phone for a long time but i dont seen to have the service why. Airline stocks among the beneficiaries of todays news. Phil theyre all up between 3, 4, 5, 6 . Its been a nice day for the airlines how nice is today . Compare this over the last six months and you can see because of the optimism that a vaccine may be coming soon, all of the Airline Stocks are nearing where they were back in june remember, there was that push in june where you saw them all come back, have a nice little snap back theyre still far from where they were prepandemic, but we are seeing these stocks close to where they are in june down 65 for the month of november so far. Thats a modest improvement compared to where they are the first half of october. This is sort of this period here where the holidays, they have to do a little bit better because we know what the air travel situation is like in january, february and early marchby the way, International Demand because of of the resurgence of covid cases, especially in europe, youre seeing Airlines Starting to cancel some of those flights between new york and europe or other destinations in the u. S. And europe. But the airline index, it is also near that june high so there is optimism out there that perhaps this is the, you know, the good news. Did southwest i think give some commentary about that today, phil, about demand softening . That was last week. That was last week last week they said that last week they indicated they are noticing a deceleration. Not a reversal but a deceleration in bookings when you look at lets say between thanksgiving and thats not a surprise given what weve seen with covid19 resuck ebd and some might say im just not comfortable taking a the trip. Totally we seal if if it gets any worse before it gets much better phil lebeau on the airlines today. Ty coming up next are energy is and moderna rallying on a what theyve been saying is more than 95 effective. More power lunch coming right up todays ways of working may work differently tomorrow. But you can work out anything with comcast business. Get fast, reliable, and secure internet on the nations largest gig speed network. Flexible tools like wifi you control. Voice solutions that connect you from anywhere. And expert advice here, here, or even here. Be fast. Be flexible. Bounce forward with comcast business. Get started with a powerful internet and voice solution for just 64. 90 a month. Plus, for a limited time, ask how to get a 500 prepaid card when you upgrade. Switch today. I bet price target might need adjusting or your stance on the company. This is a company that raised a lot of eyebrows with some of the ceo stock sales and other things this is their first commercially viable drug. The deck was stacked against them is that why you say this is a home run great to be here with you, kelly. One thing is the platform had never been proven out before and there was enormous amounts of skepticism about modernas technology, so the fact that these two guys both came out with spectacular data and huge studies i think really says something about the platform and is way above anyones expectations so now if youre a moderna investor, they had always said that financially speaking a company like pfizer had less to benefit from a vaccine than one look moderna because its their only horse now does it suggest to you that the platform should bear fruit for drugs in other comings years and if thats the case, is this a stock you can buy in anticipation of that i think there are going to be two interesting thing to play out in the long term, one is what do the other vaccines that are n what are the efficacy levels what is the thinking around how those will be used certainly well have a view on the overall potential for this vaccine and the second is whether that implies the robust efficacy levels that this technology can do for other vaccines or other therapies i think is hugely important. Both of those themes coming together tells you there should be other drugs in the pipeline and could those drugs and therapies be much better than other technologies yeah. Would you be a seller of pfizer and especially biontech . I this both of those companies and efficacy levels are similar. I think both will take a leadership and large market share. I do think that the other vaccines that are coming, astrazeneca, j j, the antibody levels are lower than some of the other technologies if they are meaningfully lower, what does the market share mean for the other guys thats going to be the big move on the stock lets see how the other guys play out so for people who go, okay, i missed the pfizer pop, i missed the moderna pop, whats the next pop thats coming . We talk about earnings, whats the whisper nulmber whats the whisper in the community about what were expected to see . Look, astrazeneca and others are around 89, 90 i think we believe thats very close good enough. If these are at 80, 85 , the question is who would use one at 80 , 85 versus 95 . If ten more people get covid, thats would be terrible and whats the price difference, 10, 20 we can debate what the numbers look like. If theres something south of 85 , theres going to be a lot of questions about how to use it i had people saying why would i use pfizer if i could get moderna. But would you agree that people arent going to have a choice of what they take it going to be if you have one thats at all effective, you just take it i agree in general with that. Just to be clear, we had some numbers around the capacity. Theres hundreds of hundreds of millions that would be available. If you only had moderna and pfizer, theyre plenty enough for the United States and most countries astrazeneca, there are areas where that could be used and certainly areas and regions where that would be amenable i appreciate what scott says i definitely think thats true you can find the large majority of it, if those others are material especially once the capacity is fully on board. Michael, thanks, really appreciate it today. Still ahead, Retail Stocks jumping today on those vaccine hopes. Check out the Department Stores. Macys, nordstrom, kohls all higher w when was the last time you saw them in that green, that much higher more power lunch is next well have you tried thinkorswim . This is totally customizable, so you focus only on what you want. Okay, its got screeners and watchlists. And you can even see how your predictions might affect the value of the stocks youre interested in. Now this is what im talking about. Yeah, itll free up more time for your. Uh, true crime shows . British baking competitions. Hm. Didnt peg you for a crumpet guy. Focus on what matters to you with thinkorswim. Its different because i have to talk to a computer. I get like 6 emails a day. Olivia please turn your screen on. Okay, lift the. There you go. Mondays remote, tuesdays at school. Its the other way around. We might not be able to solve everything. But we can help make sure students and teachers can stay connected to learning. Its why at t has connected more than 200 Million Students to brighter futures. This was the theater i came to quite often. The support weve had over the last few months has been amazing. Its not just a work environment. Everyone here is family. If you are ready to open your heart and your home, check us out. We thought for sure that we were done. And this town said not today. Its the complementary nature of those markets to what we do. On what this deal could mean for your portfolio, lets bring in the trading nation team galilea gina, it comes after shares of black rock have been unloaded in may. While theyre giving up massive margins which come with black rock, theyre still buying into a highmargin business. It opens up texas, alabama, florida, colorado, new mexico and arizona. So this is a really interesting buy for them and your thoughts on the performance of regional banks versus larger ones this year i think the regionals and the large banks are emblematic of the bear market and key risk areas that was suffered between 2018 and 2020 and are now reversing higher so i think for the market as a whole, this is very bullish, it represents a market now firing on all cylinders the train has definitely left the station on this one, dealing with near term overbought conditions we have a market weight position on the industry and think it can continue to rally with this broad market breakaway speaking in terms of some levels for this etf, there was a gap in the chart created last week at 44 when it moved to the up side i think thats the new floor as far as the up side is concerned, we see runway to 55, which is more or less where the stock the etf started to break down ahead of the covid collapse understood. Ari and gina, thank you. For more, follow us on twitter seema, thank you very still ahead, well continue to monitor this market rally. The dow was up about 460 points at the highs, hanging on to a 350point game the s p up 28, the nasdaq up 60. And joe biden is expected to speak any moment now and retail is up 20 . And look at energy, the whole sector surging, oil up 3 , stocks are up 6 more in a minute stay with us im dominic chu. Here is your cnbc update at this hour philadelphia is banning all indoor gatherings, public and private, to slow the spread of covid19 and gyms and museums must close. Following the citys announcement, the Philadelphia Eagles of the nfl said no fans will be allowed at home games. Texas a ms Football Team will not play due to the oncoming quarantine of some of the program. They could see their game against ole miss rescheduled for december 19th. New york citys Tourism Industry could take four years or more to fully recover from the pandemic the citys tourism board says International Travelers will be the slowest to return. And playing video games, yes, can be good for your Mental Health researchers at oxford looked at two games and found a small but significant benefit. That is your cnbc news update for this hour. Tyler, i would say the games are animal crossing and plants versus zombies i dont play either of them. I dont know that my son plays either of them, but if it generally applies, his Mental Fitness is way up there thanks to the games you got it. If its nba2k, its great lets look at the industrials, up, s p 500 about 4 5 of a and 57 points higher, modernas vaccine news the cat lialyst th, oil closing and up 11 since the start of last week on the pfizer and Moderna Vaccine news that may suggest that people may get out, travel more, fly more, increasing demand for crude. Kelly. Tyler, its a big week for retail earnings among the many names well hear from, Department Stores try to replace instore sales for eco

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