Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712

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That michigan will go to biden that brings bidens electoral votes to 253 but there are still six uncalled races too close to call. Pennsylvania, georgia, North Carolina, arizona. Joe biden issued a speech. Diana . He issued a speech last night about being patient. But now he is on the offensive he said respect and he talked about achievements, talking about garnering more votes than any other president in history then he used his fighting people we the people will not be silenced we the people will not be bullied. We the people will not surrender. My friends, i am confident we will emerge victorious part of that was the launch of a new campaign that bide enl tweeted he was starting a fight fund because donald trump doesnt get to decide the outcome of the election, the American People do it made the point. And then he left presumably to start the fight. Thank you, diana. As the Trump Campaign launches a Legal Campaign they have indicated they will fight this let me run you through exactly what they were talking about in terms of the argument for the path forward for the Trump Campaign they said they are declaring victory in pennsylvania although vote counting is going on. They say there is too much trump voting in butler, and blair county which they call trump county we will see if thats right. The biden people say they have a chance there they are saying that arizona call for biden should be retracted. They are also saying they are confident trump will win North Carolina and georgia they said they expect an election win friday. We saw a rushed press conference by Rudy Giuliani alleging all kinds of wrongdoing and conspiracy against the Trump Campaign this is a campaign spoiling for a fight. We will see how much further they take that given that the michigan decision gives joe biden quite a few paths to 270 just to underscore this, the Trump Campaign has only offered allegations so far and no hard evidence and at the same time they are saying they are declaring victory in pennsylvania, but thats not the way it works. It is not declared by the campaign, but by the state itself lets go to the Market Reaction the market is surging. Big tech leading the gain. Shares of apple, microsoft and amazon jumping 4 or more. Bank stops and materials were all down what does this tell us about yesterdays vote guy, your take tim spoke about this, i know dan has as well. It is more important what happened in the senate than the president ial election. That is extraordinarily important, but the fact that the democrats didnt have the weight they were hoping for situation some of the concerns twofold probably, the potential maybe the situation with china, maybe whatever tensions the market perceives them to be with President Trump are somehow alleviated under a potential President Biden administration thats why you saw tech move the way it has today nasc nasdaq, you are back to levels we saw two weeks ago the september high is still in the cross hairs, but i dont think we will get there. I think what we will see now is some of the vitriol coming from the other side of this it will take volatility at 40. Here we are. I think the trade is probably this is the biggest volatility index decline in months we saw gains in big tech, 8 for face Bach Facebook 6 higher for alphabet what do you do with the backdrop, tim . We all try to be accountable and stay consistent. I said i thought the triple qs would hit 245, 250 before he would hit 300. Thats in a world where i thought we would see more of a change out of the gop into the blues in congress. Tax base selling and certainly possible increases in corporate taxes that are at least off the table. The other part of that is you seemingly have you buy the names that is are conservative big Balance Sheets the only growth you have is in tech i think thats the other side of the tech the market got what they wanted if the status quo stays where they are i will let the political folks go at it i think you have a case where volatility has come down you have had such a great rally, 7. 5 off the lows friday 6. 5 off the lows of the s p the market, as always, seems to be the one place getting the overall dynamics of the politics right. The market got some sense that, okay, he would probably wont know we will have a good sense as we come in, but i do think it will get a little wilder ahead. After a big rally, is dont think you need to chase this i also dont think there is anything in terms of macrothat will change the market in the short to medium term i have a question about what we have seen in technology and some of the other sectors. If this is the goldilocks scenario with a president that will be tough and a democratic strong hold in the house, why wouldnt it be more broadbased unless you think we are going to get a smaller stimulus, Economic Growth will be slower and you want to be in sectors that have more Economic Growth i think thats a big part of it we will jet Jerome Powell tomorrow and i think he will be disappointed i think he was looking for help, trying to pass the baton to treasury and congress. I think a boyd enadministration with a Blue Senate Majority was willing and able to accept that baton and go forward to me, when you see rates, the tenyear treasury reverse the way it did today in front of that fed meeting and then surging the way it did, this may be a tough slog. We may have a consumer really stretched heading into the Holiday Season with not a lot of help right as this virus is surging again. What do the mitigation efforts look like and what do they do to the economy . You go back into the big tech. I am key on what powell says tomorrow and if that will cause volatility in the market i dont like the way we closed here off the highs. I think we are probably ready after a low on friday, up 7 at the height this morning and just three trading days, i think we could probably come back into 3400 there is tons of uncertainty this election will be contested and that uncertainty, i dont think investors will like, especially after a sharp rally remember back bush v gore, it took a month i am not saying it is a completely parallel situation, but it could be a month before we get resolution. James, you were skeptical about the tech trade, but here it looks like Tech Technology is the place to be. It is important to put our thinking caps ton. Look at history to teach us something. Tech is going to come down 73 have come since march. The average earnings ratio in the nasdaq is at 35. The top ten are 134. We are at all time highs of gdp of tech market we have unprecedented risk, Political Risk, tax risks, dpge Political Risk things that lead us up the fastest come down the fastest. All of my predecessors have mentioned volatility we want to protect the profits from this sector james, you mentioned regulatory and taxes, dont those concerns abate with the power structure it looks like we will have in washington now . Even though the power structure is less unfriendly to china. We will not hear the china virus any more but we had stale mates coming into 2020. China has something called the fiveyear plan we know about it when fiveyear plan emphasize a 150 lift on average in if industrial and investment. Their plan involves energy and 5g they are at the center point at what will be the hottest commodity. I dont think the risk is lower with biden i think it increases because there is more at stake tony joins us great to have you with us. What is your interpretation of this rally into i think it is a reversal of the prior two days before we came on i was looking at btx, it closed exactly where it was on friday there was kind of an inappropriate anticipation of this blue wave and that was reversed with todays decision or lack of decision. To me the reason the market went up more than anything was it took out the extreme tail risks because the house lost some dem votes and it looks like the senate keeps its status. It also takes away the massive stimulus the market was anticipating so to me it just neutralized what was going on before what does that mean for the markets trajectory . I am bullish. I have proven i am not the greatest trader of all time. If you have taken out the tail risk, what are you left with inflation, excess liquidity to a historic degree and the beginning of a synchronized recovery our view, pause you have taken out some of the tail risk, i think you want to take out any of the risk meaning get into risk based on Global Growth rather than fear tony, its tim. Help us with the macrobecause the presumption was the dollar would go lower and rates would go higher. What do you expect that even before we started pricing in blue wave, it was showing it was running out of some steam. These industrial trades, resource trades i think are very much in play absolutely. You had an inappropriate runup two days before an election that was tote lit uncertain the time to risk wasnt monday it was after the rally the vix spiked above 40 last wednesday. I dont think there is any change in our outlook. We are in a weaker framework over the next three to six months which means emerging cyclical cap and commodities i dont see any change there we are going to be a little more volatile until he would figure out who will be the president , but ultimately as i wrote today, the most powerful person in washington, d. C. , it was ben ber nc bernake and then janet yellen we see europe shutting down see that we might take more aggressive mitigation. You look back to 2019, s p had no Earnings Growth but went up this year we have significant earnings, down 20 and a market up 7 . What does that leave for 2021 without a major fiscal stimulus . Great question. I think you will get fiscal stimulus, but lets look at the difference you didnt know what covid19 was, what it would do to the economy. We shut it down. Not slowed it dpoown, not open t up for outdoor dining. Shut it down we didnt know how fed would react. Since then companies have extended maturities. Everybody is borrowing money at his tore commit low rates. That is what has driven the excess liquidity that could get us there in that previous instance we didnt know about that liquidity and what kwould push the shutdown thank you the notion that liquidity, low rate, smaller than we need, et cetera and there is a pandemic going on, by the way the only time the market has had a hiccup is when the fed has signaled they want to pass the baton from monetary to fiscal. I think this is worth pointing out. Tony mentioned a runup in industrial names karen spoke to that, if you remember, with uri she was questioning why uri had rallied to the magnitude it had. And then you see a name like that down 24 or 25 dollars on a day like today there were a lot of weird things leading up to this you want to talk about tail risk, the president has been outspoken if joe biden was elected, the 401ks would be devastated, you pull out the other recessiondepression type thing. If the market would rally when it becomes clear there is going to be a new administration, there is serious tail risk associated with that if you start to do the calculus in your head that is very concerning to me. Coming up, a ballot box bonanza. Initiative that sent these stocks soaring welcome back to fast money. Believe it or not there is news outside the election shares of qualcomm are surging after a big earnings report. Guy, where do you go with this one . You stay with qualcomm. 132 was a prior high a couple weeks or two ago we are through that. If you look at the quarter they just posted, not only did they have a ridiculous Fourth Quarter in terms of eps, they gave guidance for the First Quarter it was spectacular people will say it is still expensive. That is true maybe you have to do it back to that previous 132, but qualcomm happens to be one of those chip names we havent talked about for a long time on fast money. Thats right. Thats big in todays environment. We already saw chip gain even in the wee hours of the morning based on the Election Results we got at that point. Listen, these guys are going to benefit right now just as a cyclical play. They probably have good visibility as relates to the smartphone, probably more things going on in cyclical areas of tech that they sell into apple a 10 customer, samsung a 10 customer i mention valuation, intel cant get out of its own way two horrible quarters in a row there is one ripe for activist activity to me that is really cheap in the mid 40s. And another alert shares jumping and the company said sales jumped over 150 . James, this was your fast pitch. Here we are up 2 1 2 . What do you think now . I think the best is yet to come this company is doing everything right, have incredible power opportunity. You can compare them they are analogous to amazon in the u. S. Ten years ago. If you can get half of latin america paying the rent, the stock would be up ten times from here a crosssection of tech and en perfect place. Try saying analogous and mercadolibre in the same sentence tim you broke through what are essentially 2 1 2 year highs you broke through last years resistance of all of the charts that had a run, this was the one that was most emphatic. Maybe a more conciliatory tone from china, but whether it is alibaba or samsung, at the top today on the charts, the others are not breaking out, em is we have a lot more ahead on fast money. Here is what is coming up next the president ial race may still be undecided, but there were a trio of big Ballot Initiatives that have stocks on the move we will break that down. Later, even as votes are currently being counted, there are a couple of sectors locking well beyond the election what option markets are expecting in big tech. Plans available to anyone with medicare. 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We may not know who will be the next president of the united states, but we have clarity on a few other market measures. C cannabis, casinos, cars. D bo has the information this puts a focus back on profitability which continues to be a slog. Not having to reclassify drivers helps their Business Model they promise some benefits in a wage war in exchange for support. Morgan stanley puts numbers on it they anticipate a 1 impact in ebitda a much bigger impact on lyft regulatory challenges are not over massachusetts is doing the company over driver dispute. And even with this weak surge, uber and lyft remain below why is there such an impact 4 impact on uber versus a 56 impact on lyft. Because uber is present in other countries like europe and south and latin america much where lyft is in the u. S. And canada that it was all u. S. , one business, didnt have the regulatory of other countries and here we are, the impact could be much greater on lyft. That was a great last question i still like the pure play aspect of it i hike the fact it is a 7 billion enterprise value, but they are losing a lot of money, so that impact will be felt 50 from last weeks high. That tells you, with all of that impact there is a lot of leverage in this name. If they can get some things right, this pandemic can end and they can move towards profitability, this thing is probably a good buy in the 20s, especially if you can hold that down trend i will keep an eye on it you are not boig becauuying becy will be profitable this year or next you are buying because they have this market share they are building here in north america one of these ev fleets or whatever, someone who might want to own this asset. The pop was still enormous on this stock you liked lyft because it was more pure play i still do. Currently i have been wrong. It was a 70 stock in 2019 and you have been in a down trend. They reported november 10, close above 31 i expect to see a huge rally when i say huge, i mean up to the low 40s. You know those cnbc stores, they are going to start issuing d bo nose shirts, small to extra yard, i think they will be available thanksgiving to christmas. A perfect hanukkah gift every state that had Marijuana Legalization on the ballot won tim, what is your take we said you didnt have to have a blue wave to have a big night for cannabis some states voted for recreation Recreational Use of marijuana. One in three people live in a cannabis state 8 republican senators come from cannabis states. It tells you where legislation may go even without a full wave. U. S. Cannabis names rallied. The canadian ones sold off on the expectation they would have more access to the u. S. But also because they are proxy plays and institutional names. Some people have been trying to get that exposure from canada when a lot of those are giving you exposure to the biggest market in the world. They are up today. A lot of people thought that would be a big disappointment. The sector traded great on what could have been a disappointment tonight cramer sits down and talks about cannabis growth. Voting yes to Sports Betting were three states. Does that tempt you . Heck yeah it is going to be a billion dollar a month Growth Market 100 billion by 2024. Draftkings is a great company. They own a ton of stock. Huge upsaid. This company will keep winning guy, are you as excited as james about anything he is all fire. I love that and you need that energy i have to bring something positive no, you do it i love it. Draftkings you guys went with uber wow. I will apologize on the draftkings because that secondary offering in the beginning of october i think 32 million shares at 52, i didnt see it coming and i didnt think the stock would react as poorly as it has in the wake of it. That said, i am with james i think people are underestimating the Growth Potential of these names, specifically draftkings and despite it had a horrible run of late, i think you try to get back in the name or stay with the name coming up, Battle Ground showdown what that does to the market with six stateyes t to be called and dimming hopes for Solar Revolution by making it more affordable, thats why were keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. I knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. I ran to my husband with my computer and i said, look, we can do this. [narrator] take advantage of some of the lowest online tuition rates in the nation. Find your degree at snhu. Edu. Heart monitors that let your doctor watch over you, just like you watch over your best friend. Another lifechanging technology from abbott, so you dont wait for life. You live it. Welcome back to fast money. Hope that a blue wave turning into a wash. In that could have an impact on a stimulus mike, great to have you on a day like today there is a lot that is unknown, but an argument could be made that the democrats power in congress is weakened, they didnt take the senate how does this influence the fight for a stimulus package if you get a biden presidency, and we are headed there. As you know we are not there, but the Vice President is on route to 270 electoral votes his style is crimped by this, including a stimulus package you are right were people surprised . It would be hard to find somebody in washington who thought that republicans would keep the senate. It would be harder to find someone in washington who would say that the republicans were going to gain seats in the house. It will be hard for him to go as ambitious. Joe biden wants to go big. He wants to show the government can work he wants to do a lot gop senators look very smart in terms of the chess game they played down the stretch of this election and pulling back. What do you expect in fiscal stimulus where can we be in the Fourth Quarter with much of the same crew coming back in the new year tim, i think they will be w reluctant to do a lot. The incentives to act just arent here. Vice President Biden out there will want to get credit for a big package. I think what you will start to see is the lines form for january. I think the one thing he would need to look at in addition to the fact that republicans had a big night. He would talked about how their power changed, but there are a few other things that in q 4, q 1 will make a big difference people vastly underestimated the durability of President Trumps appeal even if you wind up with president elect buys en, much narrower everything last night was tighter than we thought. That will constrain him. For your viewers it makes a difference in understanding the country. We are much more 5050ish i think we were thinking based on Media Coverage that we were towards the edge anybody trying to do business, like that mattered mike, its dan. Nobody breaks more stories out of the white house than you, jonathan, jim. What is the word on how far trump will take these lawsuits to try to overturn the results of this election i am asking it in the context our viewers care about that. How far are you got i just got a text from somebody who is going to nevada for a court fight. You saw a flurry of legal ballot actions filed today by the Trump Campaign last night the president throwing out the Supreme Court and my newsletter which is about to pop, our lead story is we talked to a lot of legal experts. It doesnt look like there are grounds for that, but that will not stop the president your viewers know that just because there isnt ground for a suit doesnt mean you cant be sued and this is the political version of that. The president said he was going to do this time and again the president has this, whether on trade or posture with china and now how he is going against ballots, the president not only signals what he is going to do, he says it. So they are going to fight even in places where it doesnt look close, the former governor of wisconsin warning them the recap difficult with the gap they have, but they are plunging ahead. Mike, thank you always good. Mike allen of axios. His newsletter will hit soon it sounds like we should embrace for a smaller stimulus with the assumption there is a biden presidency does that mean we are in for a smaller growth environment and smaller market gains if he would study the notes, a stimulus is a must to keep us from going off the cliff just as there are guard rails on canyon roads, there must be a stimulus regardless of who is in the white house. It may not be enough every sign point today recovery in q4 and things are getting worse for covid and the i implications still arent known. I think the markets have to come down to reflect the slow growth of the economy and the potential damage to the economy from the covid that he would havent seen the full bredth of its very important for investors to be defensive. If things arent as bad as we have seen, we would have seen contraction based on the 12 or 13 year bull market. We are puzzled why investors arent taking the fed seriously. Coming up, stocks on shaky ground later a big bet. New highs for trade tofhe year . All of that and more when fast money returns welcome back infrastructure in solar stocks these two stocks rallied i think you have a dynamic with the infrastructure with e the with the argument you need infrastructure either way they are near 2 1 2 year highs if you look at metals and mining and resource stocks, they have adjusted over the last five years. Thats part of the rally we saw even before what stimulus might be required. Expectation for weaker dollar and yield is going higher. I am not running from this i think we have to have infrastructure spending. I think a lot of these companies have good fundamentals martin mayrietta, and others i do think you get back into caterpillar. I dont think the resource trade is over. What is worth mentioning is first solar. There was a tremendous power pitch on first solar the stock went up to 94. And you asked what was the right thing to do and it was to take some money off the table thats why you watch fast money for these genius power pitches yeah. I do think that we played tony braxton for both of them as i recall, but they worked out. Yes, tony is good coming up, betting the tech is headed back to an all time high sure, anything. We searched you online and maybe you can explain this . I cant believe that garbage is still coming in. That is so false frustrated with your Online Search results . Call reputation defender today to join tens of thousands whove improved their online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. If youre concerned about the environment and climate change, how do you find companies that are driving the right outcomes . If you care about economic equality and social justice, which firms are addressing it in their workplaces and their communities . For nearly 40 years, calvert has delivered competitive returns by investing in Companies Making a difference because we see value in doing good. Talk to your Financial Advisor about investing responsibly with calvert. For skin as alive as you are. Dont settle for silver gold bond champion your skin you can go your own way gold bond go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save hundreds on your wireless bill. Plus, get 300 off when you buy the Samsung Galaxy note20 ultra 5g. Learn more at your local xfinity store today. Welcome back to fast money. Big text surging today we did see above average volumes in the qqq today and right now the market is still implying a 10 move higher or lower in the nasdaq index by the end of the year. December 290 calls at 10. Betting that it will get above 300 in the next few weeks. That is a way to hedge that bet. Thanks for that up next, we have your final trades shaped by technology chand human ingenuity,s. We can make it work for you and your business. Todays action was an extraordinary day. After election day, despite the fact we are still to declare a president , nasdaq higher by almost 4 , s p up by 2. 25 and do you up by 74 google and face book and alphabet up. Time to go around the horn we will start with guy what is that thing when it is not astronomy with the stars astrology astrology scorpion they lay in the weeds, but they strike those people always scare me it turns out that you are a scorpio and today is your birthday, so from all of us here on cnbc, happy birthday, mel, enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you if you listen to mike allen, he said buckle up. Guy doesnt shut up about vix. Spy put went up today. I think you buy spy put. I have a great Birthday Gift for you. Nothing like it, even 2020 pandemic couldnt bring it down, but 74, out with the vix every girl wants for her birthday tim . Mel, happy birthday i hope your babies bak my mission is simple to make you money. I am here to level the plain field for all investors there is always a bull market some where and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, i am cramer welcome to mad money, welcome to cramer america. I am trying to make you some money. My job is to educate and teach call me at 1800743cnbc or tweet me ji

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