Every sector finished in the green except for energy. Yields pushed higher so is the market giving an all clear when it comes to getting some Election Night clarity . What do you say . All clear, definitely not i think a lot of people are trying to gauge what basically the last week and a half ment. Half of that move last week we got back over the last couple trading days i will tell you flat out i have no idea. I can make a case for both candidates based on the sector maybe the president will be reelected but the counter is maybe the bond move helped and the crude went higher, perhaps that is suggestive of biden winning. If you have a candidate either one with a concession speak tonight or in the wee hours of the morning when you are on melissa lee, that will take what it closed at today down to the high 20s if thats the case, i think you buy the vix once again do you think the markets are saying anything about the election maybe not who will win, but the fact we might have a winner sooner than we all think part and parcel the specifics around who will win, i think the market will be hardpressed to be an indicator of that when i see all of these move in tandem, with the exception of energy, you have seen moves higher in the ev space i think there is a more of a contained predetermined path i will point out that at 35 the vix is still indicating there will be some height and volatility this is even lower than we saw last week in the selloff. Tim, how do you read the markets and how are you bracing yourself overnight . Democracy at work this is very exciting. I think this is my fourth fast money president ial election. The vix at 35, i think the presumption is uncertainty there is certain uncertainty i think it is impossible to divorce itself from the political polls and then there are the betting polls. The betting polls are tighter than the political polls, but the signals are that the market likes the concept of a blue sweep. Again, not my political views, but the market needs to think about that what the market should want is a Biden White House and a gop senate i think those are dynamics we can get into morales more or less. But if you think about what could pap with Capital Gains taxes and Corporate Taxes and banks and whats to come the short run of higher fiscal stimulus, conciliatory tones with our trading partners might do something, but i think it is more offset in terms of tax selling and people concerned about higher taxes, especially some of those people in corporations 71 or 72 basis points, yes, we spiked there briefly in march, but this is about as steep as we have been. That is signaling a democratic controlled government will be fiscal spending and that would be leading rights higher how do you think about a blue wave on financials which we have seen rally sharply as bonawyn, it could be on the back but if we are thinking about a blue wave and regulatory, the Regulatory Environment as well as congress wanting to get in on how Financial Products are accessed, how they are priced to the public, these are things that are i am packmpacked by bu. Stimulus is mainly the only thing a blue wave would focus on in the shortterm i think we would see bonds move again we havent been hearing about a twotenths spreads, not that that is this wide, 73 basis points i think regulation would be a little down the road last night we had tom lee on he was saying in any scenario the market goes up maybe thats what was happening today. People were on the sidelines he said there was a lot of cash on the sidelines waiting for clarity and today thinking all right, we are not necessarily going to have to decide time to get in if either side makes the market goes higher you can paint a scenario if trump was going to win or biden would win and the market was reacting that way. I dont know what it means we are saying we dont know what the market is saying as far as trying to reacted to and project winners. Guy, lets say you decided to join me at 1 00 a. M. Or 3 or 3 45 a. M. , would you be able to tell me how the markets would react . There is some implicit indication for me to approve in the middle of the night with you, which i am willing to do, not with standing the pajamas. Remember when we had the results at 3 30 in the morning i said you will see a relief rally and it will level off in the next few weeks i was 100 wrong and i knew the results. I think it will take a lot of the volatility out of the market that suggests that the market is going higher i dont think thats necessarily the case i think this is one of the situations where you could see the market trade sideways for a while. Voting is underway across the country. We have already seen a Record Number of ballots passed lets go to washington the latest tally puts the number of early and absentee votes at 100 million that is double last yethe last election how each state processes these votes will be different. Arizona, georgia, minnesota and nevada all start counting ballots when they are received other swing states like florida and North Carolina, they start processing them on a set day before election. And two states, paf aennsylvanin wisconsin. And in fact, seven pennsylvania counties say they are not going to start counting until tomorrow ohio says they are on track to surpass 6 million votes for the first time but he said he expected the lines to be shorter because it was so front loaded. He said even the weather was cooperating. I think it was 60s in the twin city we were talking about the markets believing, by the bond move, that there will be a winner declared sooner than later, you are saying because of the delayed vote counting, we might not know thats right. We may not know who the winner is tonight, both in terms of the president ial race and the balance of power in the senate which is critical. Not only is there the ballot counting that needs to take place, but there are also lawsuits around how some of these ballots are processed. We heard from the michigan secretary of state today who has set friday as a timeline of getting some of those results. She said they have made progress on counting those results, so we may know something sooner, but she is hedging her bets and saying it may be a couple of days tim, you mention the certainty of uncertainty is this priced in, do you think . I dont know how anyone could be expecting a result from pennsylvania i will leave it to our colleagues this is the super bowl for people prognostication. Markets are ahead of us most of the time it is not good news, but i think the expectation of not knowing on election morning of a day after. Have we had that i dont think thats been the expectation going into the elections before i think the market recognizes the importance of the covid factor, the importance of fiscal, when that will come and who is in power, whether that may come sooner. The fed report is out and i think we will get some answers thursday, although not a lot these are issues and dynamics we have never dealt with on the night of an election or electioneve we are dealing with more uncertainty than 8 years ago or 12 years ago julian, great to have you with us. You are saying that the bestCase Scenario in your view is much longer than just a few days you are talking weeks and maybe months here. Melissa, i think we have a volume problem on your end can you hear me now yeah. I got you. As i was saying, your bestCase Scenario is beyond a couple of days, more like weeks or maybe a month got no volume we will try and iron that out. We will get to you when we get to you but this best case sheeve scenas thanksgiving or december i think we would start to see some unrest in that scenario in which case you could see having curfews and some kind of dampeningeffect on the economy also, people are exhausted they just want this to be over already. That to me is a bad Case Scenario i dont think we will end up there, but if i knew that for sure, then i would be buying bonawyn the more protracted and disputed this is, thats the downside that the market isnt accounting for i think you will see vix around the 45 or 50 level if we dont work it out until the holidays i do think the market is getting more comfortable with either scenario first and foremost is the economy, how we attack that and i think the other things are secondary and tertiary i think julian is good to go now. He is on the phone now i was asked about your bestCase Scenario being thanksgiving or even into the new year which we have a ripple he effeeffect, bu perceived stimulus coming. You have the twin concerns. The president ial race which could go days or weeks, but the one thats looked like it is poised to go into thanksgiving or further is the senate in reality, given the fact you are in the middle of a trading range, you had a bad october not only because of the election uncertainty, but the acceleration of the virus and that we wouldnt get the results of the election. That is a recipe of training down to perhaps the 200day moving average of 3130 for the s p 500. But ultimately when you look at these circumstances, the fact you will likely get substantial stimulus in all political configurations bodes well for a strong rebound once we get through the uncertainty. It doesnt matter to you when that stimulus comes . I guess what i am getting at, if there is some sort of a blue wave, stimulus is not likely to be passed after this election. You will likely have to wait until early next year . That doesnt matter to you in the form of the recovery, the shape and trajectory of it a blue wave or perhaps where the president wins reelection and the democrats are in control of the house and take the senate over, both of those imply stimulus would be larger than what the market looks at i would say it would be in the case of next year and around 2 trillion we think that gives the market the ability to look through the fact that the virus accelerated is likely to dampen activities in the Fourth Quarter and first quarter, but then you get this big dollar that hopefully carries you through to the spring when the economy starts to reopen more normally. Julian, thanks for joining us and bearing with us for those technical glitches at what point does the market look past the immediacy i think the market is myopparticular in terms of how it has been trading. It is hard for me to even consider looking that far out. Earnings aside and pe ratios. Until we get through, i dont see it trading through f fragility. We are breaking out your election playbook. One key market to watch. But first, out of china, making one of our traders consid consider hitting the sell button our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. They help us with achievable steps along the way. So we can spend a bit now, knowing were prepared for the future. Surprise we renovated the guest room, so you can live with us. Oooh, well. Im good at my condo. Oh. I love her condo. Nana throws the best parties. Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. Youre choosing whento get connected to xfinity mobile, to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Thats simple, easy, awesome. Visit your local xfinity store today to ask, shop, discover the latest on xfinity mobile. Welcome back to fast money. We are following a story shares plummeting out of china dierdra . Still developing so far. T just days before the biggest ipo ever, the brakes were slammed. And changes to the regulatory landscape that could not just disqualify it, but change the Business Model there were some inflammatory comments about the chinese Banking System to an audience of ch chinese banking regulators it ruffled some feathers at the top. The draft rules on regulation which has surpassed it as the largest revenue driver alibaba has a 35 stake and earnings thursday morning will be an interesting earnings call. Thank you some of the requirements that may be required could impact how it operates as a business. Karen, increasing the Capital Requirements and micro lending units, that changes the story a little bit and there was some particular regulation about crossprovince regulation two things, it may unlock value by is not a bad thing. What you are focusing on is what does it do to the business, these regulations. As an alibaba shareholder, i hate this news it was a severe rebuke of jack ma, kind of shocking, but all right, i hate bad news like that but how much of a hit should alibaba going to take . They own a third it was going to be about 300 billion. So thats 1700 billion lets say it was 90. The market cap was decreased by 60 someodd billion. I dont know where it closed that seems to me a pretty egregious discount that seems like its discounting a lot of penalties remember, there are so many great businesses there, the underlying business, clouds, grocery, logistics, a lot to like there tim, does this change your view of baba and does it have ramifications for other chinese techs getting in there basically alibaba is a myriad of five Different Companies from this country somebody investing in emerging markets, especially when a state gets involved in marketing, ownership of assets. China is also very concerned about the perception of how they govern and how they govern in their Business World in creating Market Centers i think there is going to be a slap or more than that on the risk here. But karen did a little bit of the math on what this has meant to the valuation of alibaba. Essentially we are back to the driver of unlocking was carried out in the market over the last three weeks. I think at this point you have reconciled it unless you feel this is a broader attack on alibaba. The company has been through that before and i think they have separated themselves. I think jack would not do that on a global scale. I am an alibaba shareholder. I am not buying on this news, but i am not selling either. If we are to view baba as a national treasure, it is not going to let it go down too much no. Jack has been down similar roads before each time it has proven to be a buying opportunity if you go back to the march low which i think was 169, even with todays move that trend is still intact i would be very concerned on a close below 275. But the trend of higher highs and lower lows continues you closed almost six times norm normal volume. If you want to play the deep end much the pool, i think you are good with alibaba. Markets trying to digest what a Biden Administration would look like. There may be reason to believe there wont be as big of a crackdown as one might fear. And lar,te some are fleeing the greenback. But did the currency market have it right we have that and more when fast money returns keeping your oysters growing while keeping your business growing has you swamped. you need to hire i need indeed indeed you do. The moment you sponsor a job on indeed you get a shortlist of quality candidates from a resume data base so you can start hiring right away. Claim your seventyfivedollar credit when you post your first job at indeed. Com promo welcome back to fast money. Americans head to the polls. Our next guest says hopes could be built on a biden win. Jim, great to see you. An article over the weekend caught myeye i wonder if this is part of the reason markets have been rallying, the notion that perhaps no senators will be named to a biden cabinet, therefore no treasury secretary sanders or warren. Elizabeth warren would love to have that spot. Bernie sanders would love to be named to labor when biden came in under obama, he inherited a lot of economic trouble and his take away was we are opening the economy only and you have to pump more money in than you think you do. There is no consequence for overdoing it, but there is a consequence for underdoing it because you dont have a Strong Enough economy and workers dont feel content i think i would look for joe biden to, one, move fast i have never seen more people spending time on the transition prepresidency than they have and i would look for him to focus on coronavirus, coronavirus and coronavirus. It allows him time to do what he wants and holds off liberals he will be appointing a cabinet and the focus is on some sort after stimulus plan to get us out of the pandemic they will be looking to treasury and labor and how moderate or liberal that might be. Are we to assume he is locking to a more moderate appointment to posts there are activists to have liberals in the cabinet. I think they will do that, but at the lower level positions who is his chief of staff, who is his treasury secretary. It will be comfort food. Like ron mcclain who has been around him forever who are might be Robert Ferguson or janet yellen, because he understands you cant waste a minute that if he comes in, he would have all Democratic Power and wants to move on these things. He wants people around him who he trusts. I cant express enough how he delights in comfort foods, people who have known him 30 or 40 years it will be a conventional inner circle if he were to win still a big asterisk, and he picks up the senate, you could do a lot with an all party move. Remember donald trump had wasted several months because he didnt have a government in place and couldnt fill his cabinet quick enough to get a lot done when he had an all party rules biden has seen the mistake others have made and will try not to replicate that. Once you take that coronavirus banner, which is real and the only thing that matters. Can you get rid of this virus, get a vaccine distributed to allow us to move past it once you do that, you can do a lot of tinkering you can do a lot around infrastructure because then it becomes about jobs and those sectors hurt by the virus. Jim, in 2005 it was written about a team of rivals, is it that joe biden would do some sort of tone of rivals to take a more conciliatory tone and try to heal a fractured nation i dont think he would. I would be surprised if there is more than a token republican in his cabinet. If he starts putting john k kasicks in his cabinet, there would be backlash. He spends more time than the