Message in the market that we need to Pay Attention to i think its interesting because last weeks the markets were so weak and everyone felt so despondent that this week was going to be just a replay of last week. I think that as the election is here today, people are settled, i think, into the fact that we will have a result i thisnk the market thinks we will have a result in the next 24 hours i think we all have fatigue from this election and i this i just havi i think just having a decision is what the market is pricing in now and after the decision, well go from there. I think the market is positive for clarity. It may not be clear but well see tomorrow what actually happens. Unless the market is getting ahead of itself. If you go by our cnbc states of play poll, only one in five think youre going to have an answer tonight on election night. The market seems to be acting over the next couple of days like were going to go to bed knowing who the next president will be or donald trump will get a second term. I dont any special insight in like the polls. I do think theres some overstating of the things that went on in 2016 and now people expect that to be the case this time because of the bias i do think a lot of holes in the ways questions were asked and polls were taken have been closed and so probably the polling weve seen this time will be more close to reality, although its never going to be perfect. But i do think the market is beginning to price in biden and i think you can say that based on one very simple thing you can look at, which is the tens and twos so we are now at 71 basis points in that spread this is very important because we are at the highest level since we were in january of 2018 and if january 18 sounds meaningful to you or rings a bell, that was the onset of the trade war, which by the way has been a much bigger tax on the economy, on the consumer and business businesses, an invisibility tax through the Manufacturing Sector last year, invert of the yield curve. That was a way big ager problem than whatever you think joe biden may or may not do to the Corporate Tax rate i think the market is saying its okay for that yield to widen and if we get a vaccine and an end to the trade war, that is good enough for economic expanse in 2021. I think thats why youre looking at the financials ripping, regionals beaks up 3. 5 , highest level since june, take a look at macys, j. W. Order . Str nordstorm, i. W. N. , triple cues thats been bottom being for six months and is now breaking out to the up side i think that is the message of the market it could change but that is the expectation being put into place in each of these very economically sensitive areas you really went through the reasons why i said at the top you had the best breadth in the market since april steph, you buy it . Do you buy what josh is selling there . Well, i think you have to think about longterm versus short term, right . So long term, according to capital group, who put out a great report a couple of weeks ago, it doesnt matter long term it doesnt matter who gets in, who wins. 18 of the last 19 president ial recollectio elections if you put a hypothetical into the market, would you have gained value ten years later, no matter who won if youre a longterm investor, you ignore the volatili volatil. Short term, if you look at the sectors outperforming, its from a frar infrastructure, and i e the market is pricing it in. Well have to see whatever happens. I think the market would be happiest if you had a biden win and a mixed congress because we like gridlock, we dont like surprises. You do have a probusiness president , you have lower taxes, lower deregulation or regulation rather, but you also are going to get a lower fiscal dollar amount thats going to offset it a little bit the blue wave you get higher taxes but also a higher fiscal amount theres a lot of different outcomes you can conjure up, if you will im not trading my portfolio on the short term, im investing for the long term and thats not changing so your vote, if you will, on which man is better for the stock market, is doesnt matter . Doesnt matter. You have to look at congress because can they get anything done investors, we like gridlock because you get one or two things done and then can you go back and focus on fundamentals if you get status quo, we already know what were going to get. We already have that play book blue wave you see the most change steph, i think the only i think youre dead right on the markets preferring gridlock. I think the only couple of exceptions there, theres a really big one, which is stimulus i think the market would say gridlock would be nice but 3 trillion raining down on states, cities, people with less than 100,000 in income, people on food stamps, like that actually would be preferably to gridlock and thats literally on the docket for february in a blue wave scenario. So i think that is an exception to the preference. But, josh, im not saying i think gridlock for most of the thi things that biden wants to get through. But they all agree that stimulus has to happen. It just a matt its just a matter of the dolla size also where it goes is different, too well, thats true but youre going to get it. You have to get it you cant have 9 Million People unemployed you cant have small medium businesses closing every day were going to get it. Its the amount were going to get. Thats going to depend on the mix of congress. Its a big reason why the notes guys, jim, that have come out most recently from wall street, some of them at least, say it really doesnt matter because of all the reasons that steph and josh have laid out but especially steph with this idea that youre going to get stimulus, the only question is to what degree are you going to get it and maybe to a lesser degree exactly where it goes, but youre going to get a sizable number, if its a blue wave, jim, you are likely to get a mountain of a number well, thats i think absolutely true, scott and the other factor here that we havent mentioned is jay powell and the fed, barons of course last weekend wrote a cover article saying hes the most important person in the room thats to a large extent true because the effect he has on Interest Rates, look, housing is such an important part of the economy thats recovering right now, the federal is not going to let, i dont think the tenyear go above 1 . You know, theyre going to keep Interest Rates low, theyll keep quantitative easing going and increasing if they need to if they need to. And that category of if they need to comes down to the virus and whats thats doing. We still dont know when theres going to be a vaccine, how effective it will be or when it will be distributed. Now, im saying all of this to say, yes, president ial policies matter, but they are far from being the only factor in play. Theyre important today because its election day but there are far more important factors than just the president and who his policies are wheres your vote going if i asked you the same question i asked everybody else, who is better for the stock market, who do you write in, your vote yeah. Heres the thing and i dont like my answer but, you know, in the narrow view of whos likely to make the stock market go up, its probably trump. Heres why i dont like the answer, is because the volatility, as weve already seen in the last four years and when i say volatility, i dont mean just the standard deviation of s p 500 returns, i mean volatility in society as well. Its so breathtakingly high, if the narrow question is whos better for the stock market, id save trump if the question is who is better for the world including the stock market, i would say biden. Its interesting, josh, your answer to that question when we asked was biden. Jim says trump id like you to the only reason its biden the only reason its biden is because its a kill switch on the madness of the last five years. Exactly and im not saying that as a democrat im just saying the last five years cannot be repeated the country cannot live with this level of acrimony between both sides i dont think biden is going to be on mt. Rushmore, okay and i voted for republicans before, okay dont hate me. I just very much feel like we have to get this trade war finished and we have to get the virus under control. And only one of the two candidates is serious about ending the trade war and ending the spread of the virus. The other one is pretending that the trade war is good and is helping people and that the virus is going to disappear or is barely affecting anyone, and were breaking new records of infections and the death count is rising and were going into the coldest months we havent even had them yet so if you ask me what is the stock market want . Of course it wants stimulus, of course it wants powell to stay on vacation, but what it really needs, what it really needs is a deceleration in the rate of infection of the virus, and its not going to happen under President Donald Trump because he doesnt think its his problem or his responsibility. Dont get mad. Dont write letters. Im just saying what hes saying okay. At his rallies to a maskless audience thats fine there are some who are going to, and many, who are going to say, okay, i hear you, i hear everything you just said but the madness, thats the word you use the madness, you used that word madness in the last five years, four years, whatever, has turned into an s p 500 thats up 58 since donald trump was elected president of the United States its like a hundred stocks. Its like a hundred stocks, scott. They just happen to be really big market caps. I mean, the numbers are the numbers, right if you bought the s p on election day thats not a great gauge. Its not a great gauge . Its not a great gauge. No, go look at an equal weight index. Im looking at the russells up a 34 the nasdaqs up 115 so there are some who say you may be right but i dont really care about any of those things because the stock market has done well under President Donald Trump and its likely to do well again under President Donald Trump with similar policies. And you want to throw jay powell in, thats fine because jay powell may not be going anywhere either yeah. Its jay powell and the feds ultra inflate ultra relationry policies in 2018 that rescued us from having a recession, that the market started to forecast. But those are the same policies but you could make the same argument and say that under president obama, then ben bernanke but then he gets all the credit because of the same reflationry policies after the crisis caused the boom in the stock market that we saw over that period of time. Scott obama gets way too much credit for the fact he took over at dow 7,000 he gets way too much credit for what the stock market and what the jobs market had done you pretty much could have had any normal president in that slot and the combination of the stock market being 50 lower where they took over with what the fed was doing would have led to a great stock market and a great job market so i think president s in general, both parties, get too much credit when things go well, too much blame when things go poorly i think was that bryn pardon me. No, it was me steph, lets do this. We finally got johns shot working steph, make your comment, please, and then well introduce john and well let john speak because i want to ask him the same question and invite him into the conversation, too please make the point that you wanted to. Thank you i just want to say from an investor point of view and from a Company Point of view in talking to ceos and i talk to dozens and dozens of them on a regular basis, they do like trumps probusiness policies, lower taxes, lower regulation. Obviously the twitter antics are the offset, right . We dont necessarily want that but from an investment point of view, youre asking us about the stock market, right, that is what stocks and thats what Companies Want they want lower taxes. They dont want regulation and that is his policy like it or not, that is his policy and that is why corporate profits have done so well over the last four years. And, look, its a good point to raise, too, speaking of corporate profits, you know, if a President Biden takes the corporate rate, if hes able to take the corporate rate up to 28 like he says, youre obviously going to have an impact on corporate profits. These are all things we as a investor need to be thinking about. John najarian, welcome to the party. Good to have you here. On this election day, i dont know if you heard the crux of the conversation we were having before you joined but the question i asked everybody, whos better for the stock market well, a split congress, i agree that a split congress is actually whats going to be better for the market, except youll get a very big sugar rush if its a blue wave. The sugar rush, as we all know, would come from an increased stimulus package that has been on hold since july, since it expired, which is a damn shame because, you know, they rolled the dice on that, played politics with it well see if it works or not i think that was a big mistake in terms of it will push the recovery, not the stock market, the stock market will do fine, but it will push the economic recovery out all the way through 2021 with the delay of not getting these stimulus to the folks that needed it but, scott, id point to like last week we saw the vix trade through 41 and hold it for a couple days. Now, was that because polls tightened perhaps and the people really want that blue wave that, sugar rush that josh was talking about . Im sure that had something to do with it the vix has come down. Obviously its become down to 3480 when we started the show, thats the spot vix. The futures traded up to 37 in the front are now down to 32 so were seeing a rapid shrinkage, if you will, love that seinfeld word, shrinkage of volatility because people believe that even if, as weve heard from a number of the panlt i panelists, which ever president is there, if it was a split congress, that is somewhat basically be something people would feel a little safer about what the stimulus and lack of stimulus would be because it would more likely be directed toward people rather than just towards throwing money and having a party if its a blue wave the other issue i wanted to bring up with all of you for your votes, again today, is related, bryn, to what sector is going to do the best over the next handful of years. Overwhelmingly it was technology over the past four that has done the four tech was up 150 since President Donald Trump was elected in november of 2016, and, bryn, you think that technology continues to be the outperformer well, sure. I think that any industry well, technology is such a big catch all approximately i dont think intel is going to do great and thats technology. Lets be clear, theres specific names, the big difference between intel and tesla or intel and nvidia but any time you have an industry where youre going to get growth, 15, 20 , you have Companies Inside of Technology Like paypal or square, which have huge addressable markets, absolutely thats where youre going to see growth. I think over the next year you could see linear growth and things like industrials or airlines or lots of Different Industries which are still down 30 to 50 year to date. If youre asking me over the next four years, if you have to make an investment today, i actually would buy if i could buy one investment, i would buy mtum, the momentum index, because thats going to do all the heavy lifting for me and buy the stocks that are going higher ultimately thats what we all on this panel want to buy stocks that go higher that would be my best bet if i could just do one trade is buy nomomentum josh, what would your one big trade be with what you delivered with your answer on the presidency travel. Anything thats not an airline thats at all connected to travel and leisure, just buy them now because the comps are going to be ludicrous. Youre going to think youre looking a thet a video game youre going to have hotels reporting 100 occupancy by next spring and summer versus this spring and summer. The market are going to respond the way they always respond, ha pavlovian and enthusiastically under biden it works better because the virus gets under control faster you want to be in travel for the 20 21 versus the 2020 comps. Just dont buy the planes. You think youre going to get a massive stimulus thing through, it seems like small caps and industrials more si cyclically focused small caps are still laboring under the last two and a half years, but then with regards to cyclicals, not all cyclicals are equal and i think the industrials are the place to be. Yes, youre already seeing a bid there in the last two months, but its like to to continue when the infrastructure is going to have a lot of construction of new energy projects, youre also going to have continued onshore of the supply chain. This all bodes well for earth moving equipment like cat pilller, honeywell, dover, et cetera, transportation stocks, they are all do well under that scenario steph, to the tech idea, though, since Donald Trumps inauguration, its so tech focused in terms of the better performing individual names. Amd is up almost 700 , nvidia is up just about 400 , paypal, 350, amazon 279, apple 270, netflix 255, microsoft 233, sales force 217. Do you think at all about the idea of more regulation, no matter who wins . Laura martin, the analyst, was on in the last hour or so and said of big tech related to regulation and some of the changes that may come down the road, quote, i dont think there theyre going to be able to able to buy anybody can you take m a off was table for some of the big technical nails. Thats one aspect that could be overhanging the stocks what do you think . I think the companies that you just mentioned and many others have very strong end market growth, like what weve talked about the last several weeks and months as these stocks continue to elevate higher and higher so they have the growth and they dont need the m a because, again, they are in is it a. I. , cloud, retail, ecommercial. There are a lot of differemarke do dont need m a you dont need to chase them but you make your laundry list and you do want to have some of the cyclical names, some of the reopen names no matter who wins, were going to reopen at some point, were going to get a vaccine at some point. You want exposure. I totally agree with josh on travel and leisure thats why i bought marriott two weeks ago and own wynn resorts i do want to have exposure to the secular Growth Technology names, a lot of great Free Cas