Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240712 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2024

First lets go right to bob pisani for more on the market selloff today. We are off the lows but just barely 3366 was the low today, 3381 right now. Lets not quibble about a few points the damage is pretty widespread, but the general theme is cyclical stocks and stocks most associated with reopening stories are having a tough time of it. Energy, oil down about 3 at 1 , banks, which had a good time last week not starting off the week well, industrials, another cyclical group and defenses will sectors like utilities and staples all down sap dropped as much as 21 over in europe here they cut their revenue forecast for the full year they expect a fresh wave of lockdowns to hurt demand through the first half of 2021 first off, first half is alarming but just the idea that general airically t general ai generically, people are betting its a broader more than stock specific so we have no stimulus right now of any term, near term, long term, any term we have a reopening story thats going rather story, particularly over in europe and now the sap comments are making people think, oh my heavens, the q4 and q1 and 2 earning situation is in danger the q4 earning had been better they had been down about 13. 6 going into the quarter today only down 12. 2 . Thats an improvement and people were saying thats a pattern we like to see, markets are going to hold up but this, guys, may now be threatened by things like that sap announcement back to you. Absolutely, bob thank you, bob pisani. Markets are hitting a roadblock today, in part on concerns about a doubledip recession in the u. S. And globally. The recovery is not going to be smooth. Its going to have lots of bumps and there is a material risk in some countries of going back into recession, which, you know, last summer we thought thats it, weve gotten out of recession, we wont go back down again. Steve liesman is looking at the bumps in the road back for us steve. Welly, kelly, on the road have some highways repaired and a lot of potholes. Take a look at some of our High Frequency gauges we have a rebound in inperson schooling. Thats a good number the High Frequency working data that we get that we use to forecast job growth, 0. 7 , thats okay. It may be equivalent to the 600,000 or better that we saw in the prior month. And the new covid cases spiking 69,000, that kind of trumps them all in a way lets go to the improvement in the inperson schooling. Were going to start with september. The light areas is virtual schooling, the more purple areas are hybrid and dark areas in person watch the south of texas and the south of florida how thats changed. You can see more inperson schooling, also through mississippi, also through alabama and tennessee when we go to the next map here and i dont know if we can do that perhaps we are, perhaps not. There we go, thank you very. Can you see the darkening in those areas. Thats more inperson schooling but its probably capped from here moving on well take a look at the covid cases. A lot of the country is red, greater than 100,000 cases and a lot of it is orange as well. Only a bit of it is yellow its hard to stay right now what that means for the economy perhaps renewed lockdowns and renewed reluctance on the part of americans to go out and participate in inperson economic activities. What we know about the schooling is that the more of that that happens in person, the more people can go to work. 1. 1 million more women are either unemployed or lef the workforce than men in a very unusual turn about for this recession. Steve, italy said it going to send High School Students become to virtual learning. The concern is just as were making the strides you mentioned, are people going to start backtracking so the executives i talked to said once a cool makes that inperson decision, it kind of stays with some movement on the other side but very few now are going to go back in the middle of this semester to go back to inperson schooling that are now virtual. So it kind of frozen at that 36 through january and then well have to reassess and see if more inperson happens. The way the covid cases are going, you would think perhaps not. Yeah, i know of at least one college that sent students back as well. Thank you, as always, for the update, steve liesman. So rising virus case counts have created a fresh set of economic challenges for the u. S. Todays broad market selloff, a warning sign for more to come. Thank you both for coming. Larry, let me start with you perhaps because of the sap warning today, perhaps because of what youve seen in the price action of tech, you say big techs days are numbered, if not over, the party is over. Why . Thats right, tyler this market has a problem. You can see it in todays Market Action that problem isnt just rising ko covid cases, but its also stimulus fatigue thats something were seeing play out tyler, this is a big week for big tech earnings. Big tech may be in big trouble not even blowout earnings and blowout gdp can say big tech. Regulatory scrutiny is just around the corner. Im in boston, this is Elizabeth Warren country, shes coming for big tech, bernie sanders, hes coming for big tech, ironically giving wave way to the next level of innovation. Targeted stimulus may mean more innovation but dont count on the old leadership stocks to ride you into the recovery larry likes financials. You dont like financials. You like industrials and infrastructure plays, among others id like you to go into the financials the financials is a big neighborhood youve got banks, youve got the big Money Management companies and more tell me why youre so in favor of industrials and infrastructure plays ahead of, say, financials and small caps well, i think the point just made that we could see some rotation out of large cap tech is one that id agree with its a question a little bit of where is that money going to go . If we have an environment next year where there is more fiscal spending and there is more regulatory scrutiny, we would argue that is going to be more help for the industrials and that the financials we can look to europe as play book as to what happens to banks in an environment of bank slower for longer Bank Valuations are coralrelate. Lets just spin the clock forward for eight days and for the purposes of argument assume that the election result is not known on november 3rd, not known on november 4th and leads to a period of uncertainty. Greg, you go first is this going to be water torture for the markets if it goes on and on and gets litigated . Absolutely. I think that the worst possible outcome for the markets is uncertainty. From a risk perspective and weve seen this priced in the options market, its uncertainty that the market is most concerned about. You know, the market has been priced in this elevated period of volatility thats gone far beyond the actual event date itself and weakness is a reflection of concerns people have, looking to try and hedge the uncertain outcome, the risk of constitutional crisis we think it only a tail risk but one that is difficult to ignore. Tyler, ill take it one step further. Go ahead. If we dont know the winner of the election on the lection every day is going to feel like an eternity and were going to see a market rotation into the defensive names, the dividend paying stocks described on the cover of the wall street journal today that markets have walked away from investors will rotate back into the safety of those names, the predictability of those names, the comfort and the yield. Those will be the beneficiaries. However, if you do have a decisive victory and we can move forward, immediately the tables turn toward stimulus, infrastructure, tax policy, some really significant issues, which will also bring a sigh of relief ironically to the market because we can move forward with policy. This is a very interesting time. Just ahead of halloween, high ironic that it is a witchs brew of volatility, the same spike bringing you a 17 spike in the volatility index today could bring the best Investment Opportunities in the last six months for investors as we have the highest volatility in the last six months over the few days ahead all eyes of relief are welcome. Weve really enjoyed your time today. Coming up, well have more on the sectors. Take a look at the travel stocks they, too, are under pressure, if we can show those from delta to jet blue it the cruise lines to expedia as covid cases are on the rise well have more on all the big market mover right after this. Lets pause and take a look at the market, down earlier today more than 3 , now down 2 if at any time2. 75 . A lot of real carnage in the market today carnage is probably too strong a word weve gotten a little used to these 900point drops, havent we there you see the travel stocks all off, 4 for expedia and more for some others. Meantime coronavirus cases are spiking across the country and the world, especially in europe. The u. S. Setting a new record on friday with more than 80,000 fresh cases. Take a look at the states seeing the biggest spiegkes. Wisconsin, almost doubled, in vermont 97 increase and 74 in rhode island as the weather gets colder were not going to meg, were going to dr. Jeremy faust, emergency physician at brigham and Womens Hospital in boston and instructor at Harvard Medical School dr. Faust, im delighted to have you with us today. Kelly and i have questions for you. Lets talk about this rise in cases. Is it a real rise in cases or is it, as the president said on 60 minutes as the president said last night, a rise in testing . The thing that gives us those answers is hospitalizations and mortality. We are seeing a spike in hospitalizations and rises in mortality in various places and the country. So its unfortunate that hes wrong, that this is real and that were going into november now with pretty much the night sna nightmare scenario, which is rising cases and nothing to stem that tied. We have those comments from Anthony Fauci if were weeks only from a vaccines are then shutting down Certain Industries could be a stopgap i think, im sorry, this is your opinion, then we should do shutdowns to bridge to that vaccine but we were just talking about an expert last hour who is not so sure. If its not weeks or if its months until its wide lie available, can we really afford shutdowns between now and then its a great question and i think it really depends on how fast things come online. And theres further delays you have a vaccine and you have to have it scaled and rolled out. I take this point very seriously that you cant just wave a magic wand with a vaccine and it all goes away. The one thing that we need to do is be very targeted in what we do we shut down in the spring and did things that necessary and we did things that were not necessary and we didnt know at the time because we were learning about this virus. I dont think it ever made any sense to shut down parks i dont think it makes sense to tell people that theres five people on a track, you have to wear a mask. Those things make people let likely to adhere to policy and shrug them off at nonsense you need to increase indoor gatherings where there arent masks. If you can say were going to try decreasing by this number, and if we dont get to x cases, well go further set out a plan and saying this is what were doing and if you do it and it works, well all be better off the worst Case Scenario is were in a lockdown. We dont want that but if thats where were at, at some point you have to think about it but, as you said, so lets talk about what your version of a, quote unquote, lockdown would look like if youre saying there are some gatherings that should be discouraged or avoided or whatever, im curious what your version of a lockdown would look like and where you think it would be justified the justification in the spring was to preserve the heck and Hospital System to make sure it wasnt overrun theres parts of the country that high case count but dont necessarily have a high hospitalization or death counts and there are other parts where there are problems with hospital capaci capacity correct i think its a really important point you bring up, to actually point out there is a difference between how the lockdown fwas marketed in march, april and may and what were thinking about today. Back then we knew very little and knew very little by Hospital Capacity and we succeeded in making sure people didnt die because of lack of a hospital bed or ventilator. Now you have that issue in hot spots. You also simultaneously have the possibility which i dont think was seriously on the table in march and april that a vaccine or therapeutics are coming online soon enough that every day that you have a lower spread translates down the road a couple weeks or months to lives. So if we didnt have those things coming, i would say its unfortunate you have to live with it and try to flatten a curve. When you actually believe therapeutic and vaccines will save lives, you stop things. In certain hot zones it makes no sense to me were prioritizing things the way we are we have schools closing down but bars are open that makes no sense. The reason were doing that, quite frankly, is politics you dont want your policy to be driven by essentially who has the Stronger Union you want it to be driven by the Safety Program tarameters. When schools are closed and bars are open, youre doing it wrong. You want to look at the prevalence and what your reproduction is, how contagious things are, whats the mask uptake, all of those things can cause a Public Health team to prescribe something. Id like to see a more nuanced approach now that we know more and have more data i was with a pulmonologist over the weekend who spent 30 years in the icus and was on the front line when is we went through the teeth of this epidemic in new york and i asked him are we Getting Better at treating this disease and he sort of shook his head and said, well, maybe a little bit but really why, really why mortality has come down is that more young people are getting it and they survive at a much higher rate than old people. Id like your comment on that. Well, hes right. The fact that young people order of magnitude is more likely to survive is why you see a high case count but lower mortality we is learned, unfortunately, that young people are dying from this in a serious way. Whats really important to recognize is in the spring, people who are 65, 75, 85 saw what happened and their death counts and case counts came down a lot more but over the summer young and slightly middle age americans, their case counts kept rising and rising because we were saying its okay for you. In comparison its true. But were seeing now if you left this thing roam free enough, that it rifvals the opiate epidemic in those areas. Yes, its much worse for the old people but it not a nonissue for the young. He also points out that the old are people to the extent case counts have come down, they are scared and they are really paying attention to the need to socially distance, wear masks and stay home. Dr. Jeremy faust, thank you as always good to see you, sir thank you still ahead, as we move on with power lunch, the stocks are really off the session the dow on track for its worst day of september 8th it been than june 11th and shares of caterpillar at all time highs as it gets set to report earnings as traders tell what you to expect from the g ti ca u look for when you trade . I want free access to research. Yep, td ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Mhm, yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. Now offering zero commissions on online trades. We charge you less so you have more to invest. Some things are good to know. 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Lets get to Contessa Brewer for more theyre really taking it on the chin today, slammed on covid fears, the rising infection rates raise the risk of being closed back down again or just discouraging players from coming back into casinos and gambling if these co

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