Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : comparemela.com

Later, a Bed Bath Beyond stock handing in one of its best days ever one of our traders says it could be headed even higher from here. We start with a developing story out of washington. The next round of coronavirus aid apparently hanging in the balance. Lets get right to it with ylan mui. Reporter the house has begun debate on democrats 2. 2 trillion relief package with a vote expected later on this evening. Five Straight Days of negotiations between the treasury secretary and the speaker of the house nancy pelosi have failed so far to produce a compromise the white house has propose aes 1. 6 trillion bill but those numbers are still far below what democrats are willing to accept. Pelosi also pointed to business and child tax credits as another major Sticking Point in a statement her office said that the two sides discussed further clarifications but distance on key areas remains. Chuck schumer put it even more bluntly. He said, they are not in agreement yet and there are lots of areas of disagreement democrats say that they can still negotiate with the white house even as they move to take this vote. But the reality here is that lawmakers are going home once this is over and that is going to make it much harder for a deal to get done before the election stocks gave back some early gains today on renewed worried over the stimulus aid. Guy adami, is d. C. Going to come to the rescue of the market . Im thinking back to where we were basically a year ago where the narrative was, are we going to get a trade deal, are we not going to get a trade deal. Here it looks like the market narrative that were all talking about, whether its critical or not, is whether were going to get a stimulus deal or whether were not. First of all, i know we dont work for a monoarchymonarchy, be cnbc royalty its an honor to have you with us tonight with that said, to try and game out whats going on in washington is difficult to do. You have a jobs number tomorrow, you have this in terms of the stimulus package a lot hangs in the balance the market had a tremendous run off those lows that we made. Todays high in the s p was effectively a 50 retracement of the september 2nd high vix was a little bit higher today. Its been trending that way. I think the dangerous move is to the downside given the things we just talked about, in my opinion. Dan, jump in here i wonder how critical you think a stimulus or a second aid package is, not just to the economy, but to the stock market is it the principal part of the narrative we should be following, or is it really more importantly how the economy is coming back and whats going on with covid i think its a lot. You know, all of the above how o hows that, tyler . The market is acting as if there is no potential for a second wave at a time that were starting to see spikes all over the country as we see schools and a lot of businesses reopening. The potential for a second wave and disruptions from that are pretty good. I think we can all agree there will not be the sort of lockdown we saw in the spring as it relates the timulus, fed chairman powell told us a couple of times in september that monetary stimulus can only do so much we need more fiscal stimulus heres the thing we have a Trading Market we have 1. 6 trillion and 2. 2 trillion i think the white house really wants to get something done for political reasons. I think the democrats really want to get aid to the people who need it. Hopefully theyll find something in the middle before the election if you look at the downward volatility in september, it had to do with obviously a bit of an overshoot in august. But then the likelihood that we are not going to see expanded Unemployment Benefits and a new stimulus package in september really rattled some investors. I would say all of the above i would say all of the above are not particularly priced into the equity market. Really big technical resistance in the s p 500 with 3200 the most recent support it bounced off of karen, i know everybody on this show is crazy about music in between breaks, lots of references to old songs. Im going to think of that song why dont you just meet me in the middle i think it was marren morris. Stuck in the middle with you. Karen, would you do anything different in your portfolio tomorrow if there was a stimulus deal tonight yes i think i would. I think that you have to be in more cyclical stuff. I think the banks would do well. They seem to be resistant to do well in any scenario but i would be more bullish for sure i would be long in the market, probably take back protection. I would think the vix would come down i agree with everything said, particularly dan i find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with everything dan said about the stimulus, about the likelihood of the stimulus, why it weighed on the market in september and what it would do in the shortterm i think even more than positive vaccine data, a stimulus deal is much more immediate. Really . Even more than a vaccine, it would have more tonic effect tim, wrap up the conversation here what do you think . The royal wave to you, sir. Hello. The outperformance of transports and industrials as we got to the Third Quarter i think is a trend youre absolutely going to see later on were going to talk about a resurgence in autos. If you look at machinery, whether its a cummings, whether its whirlpool, something thats supporting the construction boom the numbers were extraordinary i think those trends continue. Dan is talking about the overshoot of august. I think tech will continue to play ball, but i dont think theyll outperform i think the trade into value from growth and not extreme value, because extreme value usually means things like bombedout industries or places like energy, which we can also talk about but i like the trade into value names like some of these industrials that have very good Balance Sheets. Lets move on to our next topic. It is the first day of a new quarter, the Fourth Quarter. The second and Third Quarters were doggone good. We polled dozens of wall street strategists and asked which sectors will lead the way as we close out this tumultuous year overwhelmingly tech was the favorite, followed by industrials and consumer discretionary. There you see the numbers. Flip side, energy and utilities expected to be the worst performers in the Fourth Quarter with real estate rounding out the bottom of the pack thats what the strategists are saying the question is, what are the charts saying . Will tech really lead the way into 2021 . Lets get to the chart master carter worth with more carter, what do the charts tell you about what may lead us and what may lag sure. Its important to say that in many ways it would almost have to be tech in the sense that when tech is up, the market is up 82 of the time when tech is down, the market is down that consensurrent selloff thate just lived through in tech, in the market, how many times has the tech sector dropped more than 10 from an alltime high it happened 24 times in the history of the data. Interestingly, this selloff, down 14. 2 , its exactly in line with the median of this other almost right on schedule the magnitude, when the sector dropped 10 plus, the typical duration is 27 days or thereabouts. This ones been quicker, 12. So that begs the question. We did it very quickly, which often means we got it out of the way, but it also means we didnt quite expunge the excess that we might needed to have in terms of the duration, how long does it take if history is any guide once you drop more than 10 to recover the losses and get back to a new alltime high you can see the data on your screen 39 days is the median duration to recoup the loss this is only eight days in the making wed be in line with the median to literally take us to election week, which is ironic. Heres a chart of the s p. Its a textbook trend line and a textbook break in trend. How significant is a break in trend . Well, take a look at the next chart. The other selloffs, weve had six in total from the march low, were all confined to 5, 6, 7 . This one being down 14 is an issue. Its the first one that broke trend. At a minimum, it takes two months to recover all the ground lost and then theres the possibility its not going to be in line with the median, that its going to be worse. If one wants to have a judgment about the s p and equities, one needs to figure out tech, because when tech is down, the market is down and this is going back to the early 1990s. When tech is up, the market is up the market is tech, tech is the market. The man who dubbed me royalty, guy adami, has a question for you. You are royalty since we have carter on, he is on the Mount Rushmore of technicians. Carter knows that. When the s p 500 made an alltime high back earlier this year, 3398, the six was 14 were effectively at the same s p level. The vix is twice that. Is that telling you something . I know im leading you here, but is that concerning in any way . Well, it is, because what it is saying is that theres a certain trepidation among market participants, whether it is because of an election, good or bad, whatever that means, or a vaccine, good or bad so the elevated vix is a tell that its not quite the same as it was before and, therefore, theres inherent risk in being long carter, thank you very much lets stick with tech. We have a market flash on twilio. It is surging in the after hours. The news here in a filing says it expects more Third Quarter revenue than previously projected back in august remember, that was between 401 and 406 million. Stocks moving higher here. Twilio is up about 160 in 2020. Its software that allows App Developers to embed tech, voice, video and messaging into their products tomorrow im speaking with jeff lawson on squawk alley. Tune in for that one. Dan interesting announcement today. The stock, i think, caught a little bit of a headwind from a Strategic Partnership with microsoft. So these guys coming out flexing a little bit this kind of plays into the stuff thats really working in technology i mean, i think these are the sorts of names that are catching a lot of attention now from the mega cap tech. These are the names that are going to continue to work, because i think a lot of investors at this point of the year are far more interested with going with the unknowable, the things that dont have a lot of earnings but have tremendous Revenue Growth thats what i think will continue to work into the year especially as the mega complex are going to be faced with no matter whos in the white house and who has the senate next year, theyre going to be faced with a lot of regulatory hurdles and i think that probably weighs on the category of tech stocks. Tim i would echo what dans saying i would further it and say cloud companies, think of schools, think of corporations, they are allowing people to incorporate both video technology, website technology, how they can communicate, how they can cohabitate and as we get into whatever this is going to be at least through the next six months, the question is what do you want to pay for these companies . Thats really what this is going to come down to. I know the stock market is going to like twilio and zoom in terms of the concept but the valuations are very tough. Think of the move the stock has had and be careful. I will say, tyler, if memory serves, monday, august 3rd, the stock made an alltime high, i think, around 289. Were probably close to that now. If you enjoyed this name, my sense is you take profits, look to fight another day dan, i know youre going to say it after i do. It potentially could be the mother of all double tops. Were going to take a quick break. Coming up, Oil Prices Plunging today. Hear from one Legendary Oil analyst who says now is the time to bet on this beatendown d ctor anwhy this stock could be a winner in both the stayathome surge and the backtowork boom. Welcome back Oil Prices Plunging to start the quarter, crude down more than 4 , hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks a few factors at play, demand concerns as coronavirus cases continue to rise world wide and opec upping its output last month. The xle falling 3 today that is after shedding a fifth of its value in the Third Quarter. Karen, what do you think of crudes collapse and is this a time to hold your breath and get in or just sort of watch it . Something about the car wreck aspect of it makes it sort of interesting to me. I mean, earlier in the year crude was well lower than here its popped a lot from then. Its retraced somewhat i feel like were in a secular decline over time, but i could see if the economy reopens that demand would come back but i dont have very much Energy Exposure at all think about march 6th this was a sunday, i believe certainly when opec, saudi and russia decided to play a game of chicken. In terms of the overall markets and risk, that was the first pain that sent the markets down. That was just one ingredient think of where weve come since that time. I actually believe that wti, the price action hasnt been that awful. Its been volatile, but holding this level is very important i think, more importantly, a lot of the equities are going through a painful restructuring process. There were some good things that happened this week, whether you look at the restructuring across the board, theres consolidation thats not bad for the sector. I think its ultimately good. Lets talk more about that with our next guest, who says there is big opportunity in the oil sector lets bring in longtime oil analyst paul sankey. Why dont we start where tim left off making the case that for some of the companies that are in this business, they are being forced or have chosen to make some important moves that could position them for greater profitability and Greater Health in the future. Do you see that taking place and, if so, where . Exactly hi and thanks. As tim said, were seeing consolidations we also had a couple of extra bankruptcies, unfortunately, this week. Essentially the sector is restructuring. The big problem here is just the demand side is not there and youre still in a really disastrous demand environment. Seasonally, the demand almost always falls after labor day because the refiners begin to go into turnaround and you have the end of summer driving. Its not unusual, but its extremely unfortunate that summer high this s this year we0 a value. Theres definitely consolidation and we are definitely taking out the weakest, unfortunately. People are staying home more and maybe not commuting or taking long road trips as much if in this country you go across state borders, youre supposed to quarantine in many cases. Where does, both for seasonal reasons and habits changing reasons, where does the price of oil settle in, say, december, january, march we think the low will be february, actually, of next year, which is the typical seasonal patterns. Weve said that all through summer but i think its important to highlight a couple of things first, we talked about the whale, you know, buying upside options in tech stocks, the softbank whale my example is we have the china whale. China was buying a lot of oil at the lows and the concern today has been that china is weakening and has a lot of oil stored, actually, in floating storage offshore so the problem that our whale has been beached, if you want. Secondly, airlines, its not so much people driving. Thats actually bullish. Its that no one is flying there was a survey which found that 50 of people surveyed said they have no plans to travel by air in 2020. Theres a long way still to go thats really the problem in the sector without air travel, you obviously lose jet fuel demand, which is going to stay well oriented for the next 20 years without that jet travel, were in a tough cyclical downside. Last time you were with us, i think, exxonmobil, you know, we were talking about the stock you said theres going to be an opportunity to buy this at some point. I think exxon closed around 33 today. I think the march low was 30 is this it im not asking you to play stock market, but these names have been awful for the last few months. Wait a second, i thought we were playing stock market. Theres two problems with exxon. Firstly, as i mentioned, february 21 is when i think the low will be. If you remember last time i said buy exxon, sell apple, i actually havent been run over in that trade. Apples down about 8 . Exxon is down about 15 . I said it was a fiveyear trade. But the oil price is a problem as you know, exxon is enormously exposed to global refining and thats also just a disaster until people start flying by plane. Its too early you have to wait until we get through this covid weve got to get people back in the air. Then refining will recover summer 21 could be a great year for refining, because everybodys driving, nobodys taking mass transit. As people start getting back in the air, we could have too much crude. Exxon could be back strong next summer, but this is going to be a very tough winter. They had a profit warning this morning just for q3. Paul, thank you very much its great to have you with us tim, im going to give you the final word, but i kind of want to echo something that paul said that is the importance of air twra travel in all of this. Last time i was on a plane was late february. I have no plans to get on between now and tehe end of the year that level of demand has just been taken out of the market. Or sitting in rush hour traffic. I mean, there are a lot of places in the world where people were drivine ing both they just are not in the shortterm follow the best Balance Sheet. If you can find a company thats cash flow positive in this environment, i do think the wpx deal is a merger of equals i think it an interesting deal to now look at that combined entity we are just Getting Started right here on fast money. Heres whats coming up next announcer were counting down to the last jobs report before the president ial election but just how strong is the economy and the consumer well get some answers later, streaming higher. The callhago tt t shares of roku on the move today. Weve got that and a lot more when fast money returns. I cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Bed Bath Beyond<\/a> stock handing in one of its best days ever one of our traders says it could be headed even higher from here. We start with a developing story out of washington. The next round of coronavirus aid apparently hanging in the balance. Lets get right to it with ylan mui. Reporter the house has begun debate on democrats 2. 2 trillion relief package with a vote expected later on this evening. Five Straight Days<\/a> of negotiations between the treasury secretary and the speaker of the house nancy pelosi have failed so far to produce a compromise the white house has propose aes 1. 6 trillion bill but those numbers are still far below what democrats are willing to accept. Pelosi also pointed to business and child tax credits as another major Sticking Point<\/a> in a statement her office said that the two sides discussed further clarifications but distance on key areas remains. Chuck schumer put it even more bluntly. He said, they are not in agreement yet and there are lots of areas of disagreement democrats say that they can still negotiate with the white house even as they move to take this vote. But the reality here is that lawmakers are going home once this is over and that is going to make it much harder for a deal to get done before the election stocks gave back some early gains today on renewed worried over the stimulus aid. Guy adami, is d. C. Going to come to the rescue of the market . Im thinking back to where we were basically a year ago where the narrative was, are we going to get a trade deal, are we not going to get a trade deal. Here it looks like the market narrative that were all talking about, whether its critical or not, is whether were going to get a stimulus deal or whether were not. First of all, i know we dont work for a monoarchymonarchy, be cnbc royalty its an honor to have you with us tonight with that said, to try and game out whats going on in washington is difficult to do. You have a jobs number tomorrow, you have this in terms of the stimulus package a lot hangs in the balance the market had a tremendous run off those lows that we made. Todays high in the s p was effectively a 50 retracement of the september 2nd high vix was a little bit higher today. Its been trending that way. I think the dangerous move is to the downside given the things we just talked about, in my opinion. Dan, jump in here i wonder how critical you think a stimulus or a second aid package is, not just to the economy, but to the stock market is it the principal part of the narrative we should be following, or is it really more importantly how the economy is coming back and whats going on with covid i think its a lot. You know, all of the above how o hows that, tyler . The market is acting as if there is no potential for a second wave at a time that were starting to see spikes all over the country as we see schools and a lot of businesses reopening. The potential for a second wave and disruptions from that are pretty good. I think we can all agree there will not be the sort of lockdown we saw in the spring as it relates the timulus, fed chairman powell told us a couple of times in september that monetary stimulus can only do so much we need more fiscal stimulus heres the thing we have a Trading Market<\/a> we have 1. 6 trillion and 2. 2 trillion i think the white house really wants to get something done for political reasons. I think the democrats really want to get aid to the people who need it. Hopefully theyll find something in the middle before the election if you look at the downward volatility in september, it had to do with obviously a bit of an overshoot in august. But then the likelihood that we are not going to see expanded Unemployment Benefits<\/a> and a new stimulus package in september really rattled some investors. I would say all of the above i would say all of the above are not particularly priced into the equity market. Really big technical resistance in the s p 500 with 3200 the most recent support it bounced off of karen, i know everybody on this show is crazy about music in between breaks, lots of references to old songs. Im going to think of that song why dont you just meet me in the middle i think it was marren morris. Stuck in the middle with you. Karen, would you do anything different in your portfolio tomorrow if there was a stimulus deal tonight yes i think i would. I think that you have to be in more cyclical stuff. I think the banks would do well. They seem to be resistant to do well in any scenario but i would be more bullish for sure i would be long in the market, probably take back protection. I would think the vix would come down i agree with everything said, particularly dan i find myself in the unusual position of agreeing with everything dan said about the stimulus, about the likelihood of the stimulus, why it weighed on the market in september and what it would do in the shortterm i think even more than positive vaccine data, a stimulus deal is much more immediate. Really . Even more than a vaccine, it would have more tonic effect tim, wrap up the conversation here what do you think . The royal wave to you, sir. Hello. The outperformance of transports and industrials as we got to the Third Quarter<\/a> i think is a trend youre absolutely going to see later on were going to talk about a resurgence in autos. If you look at machinery, whether its a cummings, whether its whirlpool, something thats supporting the construction boom the numbers were extraordinary i think those trends continue. Dan is talking about the overshoot of august. I think tech will continue to play ball, but i dont think theyll outperform i think the trade into value from growth and not extreme value, because extreme value usually means things like bombedout industries or places like energy, which we can also talk about but i like the trade into value names like some of these industrials that have very good Balance Sheet<\/a>s. Lets move on to our next topic. It is the first day of a new quarter, the Fourth Quarter<\/a>. The second and Third Quarter<\/a>s were doggone good. We polled dozens of wall street strategists and asked which sectors will lead the way as we close out this tumultuous year overwhelmingly tech was the favorite, followed by industrials and consumer discretionary. There you see the numbers. Flip side, energy and utilities expected to be the worst performers in the Fourth Quarter<\/a> with real estate rounding out the bottom of the pack thats what the strategists are saying the question is, what are the charts saying . Will tech really lead the way into 2021 . Lets get to the chart master carter worth with more carter, what do the charts tell you about what may lead us and what may lag sure. Its important to say that in many ways it would almost have to be tech in the sense that when tech is up, the market is up 82 of the time when tech is down, the market is down that consensurrent selloff thate just lived through in tech, in the market, how many times has the tech sector dropped more than 10 from an alltime high it happened 24 times in the history of the data. Interestingly, this selloff, down 14. 2 , its exactly in line with the median of this other almost right on schedule the magnitude, when the sector dropped 10 plus, the typical duration is 27 days or thereabouts. This ones been quicker, 12. So that begs the question. We did it very quickly, which often means we got it out of the way, but it also means we didnt quite expunge the excess that we might needed to have in terms of the duration, how long does it take if history is any guide once you drop more than 10 to recover the losses and get back to a new alltime high you can see the data on your screen 39 days is the median duration to recoup the loss this is only eight days in the making wed be in line with the median to literally take us to election week, which is ironic. Heres a chart of the s p. Its a textbook trend line and a textbook break in trend. How significant is a break in trend . Well, take a look at the next chart. The other selloffs, weve had six in total from the march low, were all confined to 5, 6, 7 . This one being down 14 is an issue. Its the first one that broke trend. At a minimum, it takes two months to recover all the ground lost and then theres the possibility its not going to be in line with the median, that its going to be worse. If one wants to have a judgment about the s p and equities, one needs to figure out tech, because when tech is down, the market is down and this is going back to the early 1990s. When tech is up, the market is up the market is tech, tech is the market. The man who dubbed me royalty, guy adami, has a question for you. You are royalty since we have carter on, he is on the Mount Rushmore<\/a> of technicians. Carter knows that. When the s p 500 made an alltime high back earlier this year, 3398, the six was 14 were effectively at the same s p level. The vix is twice that. Is that telling you something . I know im leading you here, but is that concerning in any way . Well, it is, because what it is saying is that theres a certain trepidation among market participants, whether it is because of an election, good or bad, whatever that means, or a vaccine, good or bad so the elevated vix is a tell that its not quite the same as it was before and, therefore, theres inherent risk in being long carter, thank you very much lets stick with tech. We have a market flash on twilio. It is surging in the after hours. The news here in a filing says it expects more Third Quarter<\/a> revenue than previously projected back in august remember, that was between 401 and 406 million. Stocks moving higher here. Twilio is up about 160 in 2020. Its software that allows App Developers<\/a> to embed tech, voice, video and messaging into their products tomorrow im speaking with jeff lawson on squawk alley. Tune in for that one. Dan interesting announcement today. The stock, i think, caught a little bit of a headwind from a Strategic Partnership<\/a> with microsoft. So these guys coming out flexing a little bit this kind of plays into the stuff thats really working in technology i mean, i think these are the sorts of names that are catching a lot of attention now from the mega cap tech. These are the names that are going to continue to work, because i think a lot of investors at this point of the year are far more interested with going with the unknowable, the things that dont have a lot of earnings but have tremendous Revenue Growth<\/a> thats what i think will continue to work into the year especially as the mega complex are going to be faced with no matter whos in the white house and who has the senate next year, theyre going to be faced with a lot of regulatory hurdles and i think that probably weighs on the category of tech stocks. Tim i would echo what dans saying i would further it and say cloud companies, think of schools, think of corporations, they are allowing people to incorporate both video technology, website technology, how they can communicate, how they can cohabitate and as we get into whatever this is going to be at least through the next six months, the question is what do you want to pay for these companies . Thats really what this is going to come down to. I know the stock market is going to like twilio and zoom in terms of the concept but the valuations are very tough. Think of the move the stock has had and be careful. I will say, tyler, if memory serves, monday, august 3rd, the stock made an alltime high, i think, around 289. Were probably close to that now. If you enjoyed this name, my sense is you take profits, look to fight another day dan, i know youre going to say it after i do. It potentially could be the mother of all double tops. Were going to take a quick break. Coming up, Oil Prices Plunging<\/a> today. Hear from one Legendary Oil<\/a> analyst who says now is the time to bet on this beatendown d ctor anwhy this stock could be a winner in both the stayathome surge and the backtowork boom. Welcome back Oil Prices Plunging<\/a> to start the quarter, crude down more than 4 , hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks a few factors at play, demand concerns as coronavirus cases continue to rise world wide and opec upping its output last month. The xle falling 3 today that is after shedding a fifth of its value in the Third Quarter<\/a>. Karen, what do you think of crudes collapse and is this a time to hold your breath and get in or just sort of watch it . Something about the car wreck aspect of it makes it sort of interesting to me. I mean, earlier in the year crude was well lower than here its popped a lot from then. Its retraced somewhat i feel like were in a secular decline over time, but i could see if the economy reopens that demand would come back but i dont have very much Energy Exposure<\/a> at all think about march 6th this was a sunday, i believe certainly when opec, saudi and russia decided to play a game of chicken. In terms of the overall markets and risk, that was the first pain that sent the markets down. That was just one ingredient think of where weve come since that time. I actually believe that wti, the price action hasnt been that awful. Its been volatile, but holding this level is very important i think, more importantly, a lot of the equities are going through a painful restructuring process. There were some good things that happened this week, whether you look at the restructuring across the board, theres consolidation thats not bad for the sector. I think its ultimately good. Lets talk more about that with our next guest, who says there is big opportunity in the oil sector lets bring in longtime oil analyst paul sankey. Why dont we start where tim left off making the case that for some of the companies that are in this business, they are being forced or have chosen to make some important moves that could position them for greater profitability and Greater Health<\/a> in the future. Do you see that taking place and, if so, where . Exactly hi and thanks. As tim said, were seeing consolidations we also had a couple of extra bankruptcies, unfortunately, this week. Essentially the sector is restructuring. The big problem here is just the demand side is not there and youre still in a really disastrous demand environment. Seasonally, the demand almost always falls after labor day because the refiners begin to go into turnaround and you have the end of summer driving. Its not unusual, but its extremely unfortunate that summer high this s this year we0 a value. Theres definitely consolidation and we are definitely taking out the weakest, unfortunately. People are staying home more and maybe not commuting or taking long road trips as much if in this country you go across state borders, youre supposed to quarantine in many cases. Where does, both for seasonal reasons and habits changing reasons, where does the price of oil settle in, say, december, january, march we think the low will be february, actually, of next year, which is the typical seasonal patterns. Weve said that all through summer but i think its important to highlight a couple of things first, we talked about the whale, you know, buying upside options in tech stocks, the softbank whale my example is we have the china whale. China was buying a lot of oil at the lows and the concern today has been that china is weakening and has a lot of oil stored, actually, in floating storage offshore so the problem that our whale has been beached, if you want. Secondly, airlines, its not so much people driving. Thats actually bullish. Its that no one is flying there was a survey which found that 50 of people surveyed said they have no plans to travel by air in 2020. Theres a long way still to go thats really the problem in the sector without air travel, you obviously lose jet fuel demand, which is going to stay well oriented for the next 20 years without that jet travel, were in a tough cyclical downside. Last time you were with us, i think, exxonmobil, you know, we were talking about the stock you said theres going to be an opportunity to buy this at some point. I think exxon closed around 33 today. I think the march low was 30 is this it im not asking you to play stock market, but these names have been awful for the last few months. Wait a second, i thought we were playing stock market. Theres two problems with exxon. Firstly, as i mentioned, february 21 is when i think the low will be. If you remember last time i said buy exxon, sell apple, i actually havent been run over in that trade. Apples down about 8 . Exxon is down about 15 . I said it was a fiveyear trade. But the oil price is a problem as you know, exxon is enormously exposed to global refining and thats also just a disaster until people start flying by plane. Its too early you have to wait until we get through this covid weve got to get people back in the air. Then refining will recover summer 21 could be a great year for refining, because everybodys driving, nobodys taking mass transit. As people start getting back in the air, we could have too much crude. Exxon could be back strong next summer, but this is going to be a very tough winter. They had a profit warning this morning just for q3. Paul, thank you very much its great to have you with us tim, im going to give you the final word, but i kind of want to echo something that paul said that is the importance of air twra travel in all of this. Last time i was on a plane was late february. I have no plans to get on between now and tehe end of the year that level of demand has just been taken out of the market. Or sitting in rush hour traffic. I mean, there are a lot of places in the world where people were drivine ing both they just are not in the shortterm follow the best Balance Sheet<\/a>. If you can find a company thats cash flow positive in this environment, i do think the wpx deal is a merger of equals i think it an interesting deal to now look at that combined entity we are just Getting Started<\/a> right here on fast money. Heres whats coming up next announcer were counting down to the last jobs report before the president ial election but just how strong is the economy and the consumer well get some answers later, streaming higher. The callhago tt t shares of roku on the move today. Weve got that and a lot more when fast money returns. I cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs<\/a> a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy<\/a> note20 after tradein. We have a news alert on amazon and deirdre bosa has the story. According to a blog post, amazon says that over 19,000 u. S. Workers contracted coronavirus over six months. Amazon says that accounts for just less than 1. 5 of u. S. Front line workers there have been many calls for amazon to publish this information. So this is the first time that were hearing from amazon a specific number of cases, infections at the warehouses it also, i should note, comes on the heels of a report talking about Workplace Safety<\/a> so there are also calls for amazon to publish more information, be more transparent around injuries at its warehouses again, in a blog post, amazon saying that 19,000 u. S. Workers have contracted coronavirus over the last six months. Fascinating putting sharp numbers on it that way, deirdre. Thank you very much. Dan nathan, as we follow some of the chyrons there, this was 1. 4 of their total workforce, 19,000 u. S. Workers they say that the incidence within that workforce is lower than you might expect when compared with the general population i assume amazon would say it goes to the point that we are doing the best we can to protect our workers and were doing a pretty good job of it. Yeah. The transparency over the last six months is probably the reason why theyll catch some flak for it. If you go just look and see how this stock has traded and you go look and see the results, they basically won the andemic, for all intents and purposes their workers were front line workers. They created a supply chain that kept a lot of citizens in this country going at a time that we know a lot of brick and mortal retail places were closed. This is a company that has definitely face ad a lot of criticisms about wages they pay their workers. This is something that will be piled on, especially by some of those people in washington who really dont like amazon i think its not something that will be focused on by stock Market Investors<\/a> for too long. Karen, give me your thoughts on amazon. We had a guest who says he sees amazon going to 400 quickly and eventually to 6,000. You have the what dan pointed. That is the idea or the notion that amazon under some lights is not terribly popular in washington and there might be antitrust knives out for them your thoughts . This 19,000 number, thats such a big headline number when you look at its 1. 4 , that means they have 1. 4 million workers. Thats like a small city if youre a small city that had 19,000 incidents of corona, its terrible for each one of those 19,000 but at 1. 4 , i actually do think that was a pretty good job and they started to get a handle on it i appreciate the transparency. I agree with dan i dont think at the end of the day this will change anyones bullish case for amazon. Were going to move on with a double dose of data coming out today, casting new doubt on the health of the u. S. Economy you know whos got it . Steve liesman. A decline in jobless claims, which was the good news, down 36,000, but to a very high level of 837,000 new claims for jobless benefits the continuing claims numbers, those continue to receive it 11. 76 million americans getting just the regular jobless claims. If you go back to september 12th, 26. 5 million americans getting both pandemic assistance and jobless claims some of the impact with the withdrawal of stimulus from the system, of the ending of that stimulus, compounded by 2. 7 in all of the decline was in the decline in government benefits spending hung in there, up 1 . What happens when you have a decline in income and a rise in spending well, it comes from savings. Savings declining by 3. 6 , but Americans Still<\/a> have a good amount saved up relative to where they were before the pandemic. I would call these data ambiguous, i suppose theyre not as good as you might expect falling incomes is real dollars that arent getting spent. We have a jobs report tomorrow id love to get your thoughts on that particularly in light of new layoffs that wont show up in the number we get tomorrow from the likes of disney and probably from the airlines before very long tyler, i mean, ambiguous is a great, great word to use, because theres so many different cross currents in the economy. Were looking for 800,000 job to be created in any other world that would be an amazing number, quad rurupleh 200,000 number were all used to, except it still leaves 10. 7 million jobs unrecovered from the pandemic, so theres still a very long way to go. Look, the people on your panel are acting and betting and investing like its all done we are now down, tyler, a pretty bad recession from the worst recession since the great depression. Were looking for 800,000 new jobs and we had Something Like<\/a> 800,000 new jobless claims today. Thats ambiguous, my friend. As we await that final jobs report before the election, we are seeing a slew of corporate jobs cut disney announcing layoffs for 28,000 workers i was amazed that that number did not come up in the debate on tuesday. Jp morgan and allstate also announcing cut united and American Airlines<\/a> furloughing more than 40,000 workers. What are these layoffs saying about the true state of the economy . Who would like to begin here i call it an ambiguous data read, better than we would have thought in march, but certainly not an allclear flag. Tim, go ahead . Tim is waving his hands like its a zoom call. I didnt know what to do. If you throw it out to this group, theres a lot of meat on a lot of peoples plates for scraps the spending data reflects the 600 a month of stimulus that rolled off were going to get Something Back<\/a> theres no question to me were going to continue to see more job losses even though the payroll numbers tomorrow are going to show some improvement in the short run ultimately i think the real question for the economy is where are you seeing around the world also some continued improveme improvement. What we did see overnight is the fact that industrial and pmi numbers around the world were a lot better on the basis china has opened up. Im not saying china can be the model but i do think when we look at the economy and if we continue to trend towards a place where were just counting down the days, the fed is at your back and there will be more stimulus in fact, i think there will be a stimulus plan at a minimum that will be infrastructure within the first month of the next presidency, no matter who it is. You cant fix this overnight but i think theres recognition in washington that there does need to be more done. Dan, let me give you the last word on the Employment Data<\/a> tomorrow, the Overall Health<\/a> of the economy. It looks like lots of companies are doing very well, but i go and take a walk down the street of my town in new jersey and i see one store after another that is gone. I see one for rent, vacant, vacancy, available sign after another. That tells me that a real key part of the American Economy<\/a> is suffering badly. Well, its suffering badly at a time where theres been tremendous innovation. I think tim used the expression earlier just the acceleration of certain trends which are being affected dramatically by technology and innovation. The scars on our economy as it relates to workers is going to last for years probably afterwards we think about structurally high unemployment were talking about an 8. 2 number thats up from 3. 6 in january of this year its actually much higher when you think about how many people have left the workforce. About those disney and those 28,000 workers, they did not want to lay those workers off. They had them furloughed when they finally reopen and we have our economy humming after this pandemic, how many of those workers jobs will be replaced by technology . Thats really whats going on. Thats really the acceleration thats really the sad thing. When you think about the trade war and the damage it did on our manufacturing and farming, some of that sufficietuff is here to weve all talked about working from home and how this crisis speeded up a process that was probably already in place. Youre taking it to another context and i think a very valid point that some of these transitions were already happening and this has accelerated them coming up, so update news on the car lot sending shares of gm and ford up today but is the rally about to stall my father always reminded me, a good education takes you many different horizons and that sticked to my mind. So, when 1 a day came out, i said, why not . Why not just utilize that resource. And walmart made that path open for me. Without the 1 a day program, i definitely dont think id be in school right now. Each week for me in school is just an accomplishment. I feel proud every step of the way. Welcome back, everybody, to fast money. Auto stocks kicking into high gear today thanks to some upbeat news on the car lot. Were still waiting for final numbers in terms of the pace of sales for september and for the Third Quarter<\/a>, but based on what ive seen from a number of auto makers doing a little better than expected, dont be surprised if we see the best september since february, the sales rate may even top 16 million as a sales pace. For the Third Quarter<\/a> the sales pace is between 15. 7 and 15. 9 million units. The auto makers for the most part are only reporting on a quarterly basis. Today we got q3 numbers from gm it was down 10 compared to the Third Quarter<\/a> of last year Fiat Chrysler<\/a> also down a little over 10 for the quarter, a little better than expected. Ram truck sales in the Third Quarter<\/a> were up by 15 if you want a truck right now, its tough to find one you can buy a new one, but youre paying full price for that pickup truck. Also tesla, we are awaiting teslas q3 sales, their delivery numbers likely to get those tomorrow people are going to be focused on how many vehicles did they deliver, did they meet the expectation of delivering 137,000 vehicles remember, the big focus for tesla is going to be china as well as model 3 as well as what do they have left to deliver in the Fourth Quarter<\/a> in order to meet the target of at least a half million vehicles being delivered this year. Were going to trade it now guy, phil said this was the best september since february thats what he said. Go ahead, guy. You know when youre having your blue point specials ap denndeat dennys, look at the move in the stock today. Tremendous move. New alltime high. To me, the only way to play, in my opinion, the autos are names like this. Carvana still grinds higher because people are finding the trucks you cant find in the dealership at places like carvana. Dan, youre nodding there do you like it we had this conversation last week my view is if you like carvana, then you have to like autonation as a company thats doing 40 of their sales online and theyve also got the trucks. Its obviously a much cheaper stock on a valuation basis too if you like carvana, i like auto nation. Coming up, shares of Bed Bath Beyond<\/a> topping the tape hmms and ahhs heard incall. Some things are good to know. Like where to find the cheapest gas in town and which supermarket gives you the most bang for your buck. Something else thats good to know . If you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get more Healthcare Benefits<\/a> through a humana Medicare Advantage<\/a> plan. Call the number on your screen now and speak to a licensed humana sales agent to see if you qualify. Learn about plans that could give you more Healthcare Benefits<\/a> than you have today. Depending on the plan you choose, you could have your doctor, hospital and Prescription Drug<\/a> coverage in one convenient plan from humana, a company with nearly 60 years of experience in the healthcare industry. Youll have lots of doctors and specialists to choose from. And, if you have medicare and medicaid, a humana plan may give you other important benefits. Depending on where you live, they could include dental, vision and hearing coverage. You may also get rides to planapproved locations; home delivered meals after an inpatient hospital stay; a monthly allowance for purchasing healthy food and beverages, plus an allowance for health and wellness items. Everything from overthecounter medications and vitamins, to firstaid items and personal care products. Best of all, if you have medicare and medicaid, you may qualify for multiple opportunities throughout the year to enroll. So if you want more from medicare, call the number on your screen now to speak with a licensed humana sales agent. Learn about humana plans that could give you more Healthcare Benefits<\/a>; including coverage for Prescription Drug<\/a>s, dental care, eye exams and glasses, hearing aids and more. A licensed humana sales agent will walk you through your options, answer any questions you have and, if youre eligible, help you enroll over the phone. Call today and well also send this free guide. Humana, a more human way to healthcare. Welcome back to fast money. Bed bath beyond topping the tape on the back of a blowout earnings beat. Online sales jumping 80 last quarter and were going to hear much more about this Bed Bath Beyond<\/a> from the ceo of that company who will be joining jim cramer at the top of the hour. Karen, your take on this big move i think of this company as kind of the certs breath mint is it a stayathome stock as people found maybe i need another swiffer. I think its definitely a stayathome stock theyre trying to be an online merchant they had fantastic same store sales improvements they had very good margin improvement even with that improvement in e commerce sales. They have good things going on on the Balance Sheet<\/a> they bought back some higher cost debt. Only a quarter ago they were on moodys or s p watch for a negative downgrade i think that probably wont happen another quarter or so they may even get an upgrade. There was a lot to like about this its a good time to be a sort of stayathome nesting company thats the kind of stuff they have its also a time to renegotiate your leases with your landlords. All that together enormous short interest, 61 , which is just gigantic it traded 83 million shares today, which is three quarters of the company i cant recommend it, but good for them, this turnaround is really taking hold the Balance Sheet<\/a> is better. I dont own it im sad. I wish i did, but i dont. Guy, i dont know whether it was a skeptical nodding of your head or what it is . Karen is clearly in my head because she mentioned it traded 83 million shares today. Shes spot on. It traded nine times normal volume it traded up to exactly where we topped out in april of 2019. What i will say, though, this is the genius of the company because i was there with my wife and daughter over the weekend. You have to go about 100 yards in serpentine paths about a thousand Different Things<\/a> in the impulse buy line just to get to the cashier. Thats genius. I was at one of the stores in the middle of the summer buying a dyson vacuum cleaner it was the same thing. You have to go this circuitous route and you have to rate there with all of these temptations. Dont take a 5yearold in the options of Bed Bath Beyond<\/a> went nuts today. Bonawyn eison has the story. The options traded about 275,000 times versus about a 50,000 average daily volume. Thats six times if you fast forward, the calls and puts were evenly distributed. Im going to tell you why thats not necessarily the full story 16 after having a 25 move higher what i want to highlight for you is about 50,000 of the october 15 puts were sold at about 15 currents now, theres 30,000 of open interest there, so some of those are going to be closing. What it really looks like is people are not only recovering some of their premium that they had, but also putting on bullish bets here. As we think about it, its going to be down 1485, about 20 lower than where stock is. Coming up next, weve got more options action tomorrow, i should say, 5 30 p. M check it out up next, Roku Streaming<\/a> higher well tell you why right after this im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Thats why Td Ameritrade<\/a> designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. Oh. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well except now youre binge learning. See how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from Td Ameritrade<\/a>. Visit tdameritrade. Com learn you can go your own way go your own way your wireless. Your rules. Only Xfinity Mobile<\/a> lets you choose shared data, unlimited or a mix of each. And switch anytime so you only pay for the data you need. Switch and save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. With the carrier rated 1 in customer satisfaction. Call, click, or visit your local xfinity store today. Take a look at shares of roku, jumping more than 6 today after citi upped its price target to 220 a share. Th iats a 10 upside from where it closed today. Roku hitting new alltime highs. Like its a mirror, dad. You know . Alright, okay. Hows that . Is that how you hold a mirror . [ding] power e trade gives you an awardwinning mobile app with powerful, easytouse tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24 7 support when you need it the most plus 0 commissions for online u. S. Listed stocks. Dont get mad. Get e trade and start trading today. Dont get mad. Get e trade i cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs<\/a> a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy<\/a> note20 after tradein. Time now for the final trade. Because i have absolute royal power, i get to decide who goes first. Tim, its you this time. Thank you, sire one of the big disappointments in the last six months, intel, starting to make a move. Check that one out. Karen, youre next. Tiffany i like the theater of it. Theres a lot of theater around that. How about you, dan deere, too far too far. Im a seller. And guy mad money with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. Im here to level the Playing Field<\/a> for all investors. Theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now hey, im cramer. Welcome to mad money. Welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. Im just trying to make you some money. My job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you, so call me 1800743cnbc or tweet me jimcramer everyone i know is focused on the shape of the stimulus negotiations they know nothing","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia601707.us.archive.org\/35\/items\/CNBC_20201001_210000_Fast_Money\/CNBC_20201001_210000_Fast_Money.thumbs\/CNBC_20201001_210000_Fast_Money_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}