Gaming stocks load why . Plus Cyber Security from palantir making a big splash in its public debut and later on, your call of the day. One top analyst says that stock right there is one of the best growth stories in retail you know what it is . No, you dont. Maybe you do were going to bring you that name ahead. Good evening, everybody. Wow. What a start to september. Ov overall i should say a september to forget. The s p 500 capping off its worst september in nine years. But for the quarter, we actually had some pretty good numbers the s p 500 gaining about 8. 5 this quarter leading the way Consumer Discretionary, materials and industrials, rounding out the pack notice whats not on there . Technology the sector that posted a loss this quarter, the only one energy, which slid 20 so with q3 now in the books, guy adami, in a quarter with more ups and downs than action park, what do you make of the setup for the Fourth Quarter by the way, brian, great to have you here. That action park, theres like a documentary about action park that is off the charts i mean, that place was ridiculous for those that live in this area i would say this you know, in terms of what the market did today and what weve done, textbook, that runup on september 2nd to 3588 in the s p, the subsequent drop to 3210, the level that we traded at today is almost to the penny a 50 retracement, 3393. By the way, there was also the prior alltime high in february. It did everything it needed to do technically in terms of the correction on the upside now i think october sets up to the downside i thought the vix was interesting, still around this 26 level i think october could be really dicey as we move forward here. Tim, do you think were setting up for a dicey october yeah. Ill put it in even more laymans terms the market basically after falling almost 10 on the s p has now risen 5. 7 in about five or six sessions to get back above the 50day, which looked like an area it needed to not only hold but possibly inch back over the last day of the quarter. The question for investors is, was that Third Quarter for a lot of the big mega cap tech names for sure, was that really their Fourth Quarter was apples 27 Third Quarter run, did they pull their holiday sales . We could argue they had their holiday day in back to school and what not industrials was the quiet stealth rally in Third Quarter that goes straight into the Fourth Quarter largely i think part of what september was was really where august was we were way, way over our skis and i think this is a case where we go into the Fourth Quarter. It was october 3rd of last year when markets were coming out of also a difficult september not like this, but where you essentially got the fed very involved and talked about the money markets and gave markets a lot of ammunition into year end. I dont know if we have that waiting f ining for us in this quarter. We have a lot of uncertainty. Last night, the debate, whatever that was was not a debate dont call it a Dumpster Fire because Dumpster Fires are mostly contained futures turned down after that thing, whatever it was last night. Yet, we rallied today. Is that that macro environment that if we get a democratic win or a sweepeven if fiscal stimulus is likely here to say for a long time . Thats potentially possible i think there were some other things to point to i think those housing numbers were gigantic. Thats something good because a lot of positive things happened. These are pending sales, meaning, they havent closed yet. When they do close, that starts a whole cycle of people spending money on their homes, buying appliances and going to home depot and lowes and what not. I think today the number one thing driving the market, we heard they were in discussions, pelosi and mnuchin then there was a little cold water thrown on it theyre going to be talking a little bit later i dont know i think thats the number one stimulus to the market right now, no pun intended one more thing we see all these layoffs happening, i think that pushes both sides to try to get a deal done for the American People regardless of politics maybe im an optimist, but i still think theres hope there for the Fourth Quarter, i really want to see what the banks have to say theyve had a nice run in the last few days, so i actually trimmed something. But i want to see what they are going to say because they have a very good look into business and consumers and theyll give us somewhat of a tale on how the economy is really doing, because i dont think we really know. The gdp estimates, i think, have like a 20 swing from the high to the low. Im not sure ive ever seen those kind of estimates on wall street jeff, is the market hanging by the stimulus thread . I think it is to a degree i think were going to see the shift turn away from multiple expansion. I think maybe what we saw this quarter is foreshadowing what were going to see for the rest of the year. Thats more sideways choppy trading. When i think about multiples, typically when you can count on multiples rising, its when that perception of risk is really high we were in the opposite space right now. On the flip side, i think the highs are probably in for the year, but on the flip side, i dont see major downside because i dont know that valuation multiples fall out of bed either anything can happen on the geopolitical front, anything can happen on the political front. We cant predict that, but those typical catalysts for compressing multiples, whether its raising Interest Rates or increasing inflation, i dont think thats in the cards. So i think its more sideways, choppy trading because now multiples are range bound and we have to count on earnings. I pointed this out, that if you wanted to buy a tenyear treasury note, the yield is a dime,. 12 if i promised you a 1 return on your investment, you might laugh in my face, but thats 1300 more than what youre going to get from a twoyear treasury note you want an argument about why stocks continue to go up that may be it. I understand why theyre forcing you, you know, whatever forces are at work, central banks, our fed reserve forcing you out the risk curve that doesnt mean we should do it i think in the fall things look a little nebulous. Again, you have an election coming up in a month or so theres a tail risk there with a potential contested election, things going on between the United States and china. There are a lot of things to be leery of as we head into the fall there is no alternative lets have a little fun, shall we its wednesday why not . With the Third Quarter officially in the books now, we thought it would be a perfect time to play trade it or fade it trade it or fade it were going to hit q3s biggest winners and one of its biggest losers first up, l brands, maybe the Biggest Surprise in the quarter, lb getting an a, up over 112 this quarter what a run, but the company is still struggling, karen. Are you trading or are you fading im reluctantly trading i would have said faded. I read the piece they make some good points they definitely are getting their Balance Sheet in shape and the catalyst would be the Bath Body Works. For those reasons, i would be a trade it. Tim seymour, trade or fade . As unintuitive as trade it means for someone that actually wants to hold the stock, i will fade it, which means i would definitely be selling some of this tremendous turnarounded a es a and bottom line inflection question is, is that a reason to go out and buy the stock tomorrow Bath Body Works is a real franchise. I think that spinoff is what gives you upside but i have to say the 250 move off the lows. Stock number two, fedex, on the express train to make investors some serious coin, fedex up 80 in 90 days. Tim, trading or fading yeah. I will trade it, which means i would like to hold it or ill stay in a trade ive been in i think a combination of ground express margin increasement, those numbers were extraordinary, the b to c business and the shear scale of what theyre rolling out in the Holiday Season i think transports as they were a leader in the 3 q i think stay in the 4 q based upon trends weve seen. I would say fade it fedex bottomed that scared me that was a very aggressive buzzer fed oex bottomed out at 90, wet up to 260 we talked about the possibility for it trading to levels we saw two years ago and failing. Thats pretty much exactly what we did after that earnings release. I think you get a chance to buy it cheaper when i say cheaper, i think low 200s fade it. That buzzer is like hooking a car battery to the came operation. Dont do that. Buy low, right lets move onto a big loser in the quarter. Citigroup down nearly 16 in this quarter im going to fade citi. I think im probably on my own here just given with the underperformance weve seen. There probably will be a rerating of banks. If youre patient over the longterm, theres money to be made i just think in the near term, theres no catalyst. It broke to the downside before it did that, you saw some outperformance banks outperformed along with the yield curve steepening i think it stays there Inflation Expectations have started to roll over a bit i dont think people believe the fed can push inflation back to 2 or above. Fade citi. Karen yeah. I would trade it i am long. But i think its not about the Net Interest Margin for citibank its about the gigantic discount to book value. Its also about the cloud theyre under right now from their risk management. I think when we hear what the penalties will be or what the restrictions will be from the regulator, i think when those are announced, that will actually be the catalyst for others to trade it, i guess. I think i am optimistic about a general bank rally for bo a lot of bad news is priced in for this price. Fulltiinally gilead, down ny 18 . Guy, trading or fading i love when we fire these graphics id trade this, brian. Id trade it based on the fact that 61. 5 has been huge support going back to december of 2018 tested it a few times and it bounced. I think were going to bounce with it here its still a Premium Company with a great Balance Sheet theyre a victim of their own success. Id say trade it jeff . I think guy copied my homework i was going to say the exact same thing you go back a couple of years, this thing has traded like clock work between the low 80s and the low 60s. I think you trade it here just on the near term Technical Support thats been really stable for some time i think you can trade it to at least that 70 level trade it or fade it is over all right. So we heard from the major power players in the world today at the delivering alpha conference. Heres social capital ceos take. The markets are going higher because i think the presidency and the impact of the presidency is being divorced from the Economic Future and prosperity of america i think it is really important to understand that you have coupled together monetary fiscal poli policy joining us with reaction and more is jusef. Do you agree with him . I think hes making the structural argument for basically politics. I disagree with that. I think politics do matter, but only to a small degree i think over the medium to longterm, really what youre going to see is the market is going to go up and you have to be in equities and especially after the election regardless of the winner youve got to be buying now and anticipating the runup and the cure for covid next year and potentially more stimulus as well. You know, there was always this case for years, whatever it might be, generally its financial data, not health data where bad news is kind of good news because it meant the fed was in play. We want covid to simply go away. We want no more people to go sick or die from it. But the idea being that if we do unfortunately get a second wave or whatever its going to be called in the wintertime, that that increases the chances of more monetary and fiscal stimulus. Definitely. I think we get stimulus one way or the other the question is whether we get stimulus before the election or after the election in either case, i think now is the time to be buying your consum Consumer Discretionary names you cant not bet on the american consumer. People have money to spend and people want to spend it. You have to bet on them. Its tim seymour. Thanks for joining us. I dont actually agree that youve seen monetary and fiscal coupled. I think the more important thing is the upcoming earnings season. Where do you actually expect disappointment out of companies that have pulled a lot of good news forward in terms of cost savings and maybe even their outlook. I think you have to be cautious of anything to do with financials or insurance. Insurance companies have to have a portion of their books in fixed income theres no money to be made there. I think theyre going to struggle whats interesting is that you think that utilities i mean, they used to be pboring, but theyve made a lot of money in the last 12 to 18 months. Utilities do well under either administration. Yeah. Utilities are a pick that regardless of what happens with the election, i think youre going to get stimulus next year. If trump wins, you probably get deregulation deregulation is good for the utilities. If biden wins, youre probably going to get some Infrastructure Spending bill thats going to be beneficial for them. Regardless of who wins, youve got a lot of tailwinds and low Interest Rates and dividend payments, youve got to love that in this kind of environment. You also like purple, the Mattress Company and facebook. He made the case for utilities karen, your take on his picks and thoughts well, facebook is one he likes and one that ive owned for a while. I did not watch social dilemma last night i was watching that other ridiculous entertainment i dont know what you call it. Facebook, Small Businesses need advertising. This is the place you have to go its not crazy expensive either. I watched it before the debate which seems timely. Do yourself a favor, check it out. Breaking news on stimulus. This could be a market mover where we stand do we stand anywhere reporter brian, the house will not vote tonight on democrats 2. 2 trillion coronavirus aid package to allow more time for House Speaker noise and treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin to continue their negotiations this is a reversal from about two hours ago when discussions between pelosi and mnuchin wrapped up for the day without an agreement then democrats decided to move forward with this vote on their own package. However, that is now being delayed until tomorrow to give more time for the talks to continue so we will see if there is any type of breakthrough in those discussions overnight. But for now, democrats not voting on their package in the hopes of perhaps reaching a deal with the white house back over to you jeff mills, your reaction yeah. Thats why im still worried a little bit about the consumer. Im not sure that stimulus is a done deal. We look at the Consumer Confidence numbers this week its almost a step function down depending on the income bracket. Higher incomes, it was up about 18 or 19 points. Lower income was actually down 6 points i think the higher income is going to be good for housing, taking advantage of low Interest Rates. The broad consumer continues to perform. We had this income replacement its gone. Youre going to need to see that lower end catch up with the layoffs and unemployment numbers continuing to rise, im still concerned im not convinced we get stimulus jeff makes a great point. I think its probably encouraging the fact that theyre not going to a vote and the two sides are going to continue to talk to me, thats probably bullish on the margins i think the most fascinating thing, in my opinion, that comes out of this is president trumps a winner either way in my opinion. If they get a stimulus deal, theyll be able to say look what ive done for you in terms of money in your pockets. If they dont, theyll say look what obstruction democrats have done the fact that theyre still talking is, to me, a bullish thing. We have a long way to go coming up, a palantir pop. Were going to break down the big day one action from one of this years hottest Public Market debuts. Also, the nfl postponing one of this weeks big games by a day welcome back palantir making a big splash in its first day of trading on the new york stock exchange. Shares of the secretive Security Company rallying 31 today josh lipton has more on palantirs big debut so palantir is showing accelerating revenue growth. What is this companys path to profitability . Heres what Ceo Alex Karp tells us. It turns out our financials are quite simply you look at this dramatic growth with flat lining expenses. I think that gives investors comfort. It certainly makes me feel that we made the right decision to invest heavily over well over a decade in software and you see the results. One potential risk here, only 125 customers, but karp saying hes confident he can expand business with existing customers and attract new ones theres also the question of Corporate Governance with founders controlling just over 50 of palantirs voting power cap s karp says thats necessary. We need to go to our intel and defense clients and say we will not just throw with the wind those shares give us a unique ability to have longterm commitments to the most important clients in the world, both commercial and Government Back to you, brian. Josh lipton on palantir, thank you very much.