Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240712

Gap, all falling very hard as you can see there. Well go shopping for opportunity in that Retail Sector later on, buy gold now thats the message from one top wall street firm we will debate if there is any shine left in that big trade we start first with breaking news out of disney the stock is moving lower in the after hours session as the Company Announces some very, very major job cuts. Lets get to our own Julia Boorstin with the details. These are tens of thousands. Thats right. Disney is laying off 28,000 domestic employees, hourly, sal rye e aried and executive roles. In light of the prolonged impact of covid19 on our business, including limited capacity due to physical distancing requirements and the continued uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic exacerbated in california by the states unwillingness to lift restrictions that would allow disneyland to reopen, we have made the difficult decision to begin the process of reducing our workforce at our parks, experiences segment. Disney had furloughed an estimated 77,000 employees before the pandemic. Disneyland has an estimated 35,000 employees this is a meaningful piece of their domestic Theme Park Division thank you very much for that. Folks, lets trade this with disney guy, ill go to you first for this i mean, we knew it was coming in some way it couldnt have been that easy, we couldnt have gotten away that unscathed in this kind of a scenario with a theme parks business is it going to have a longer term impact in the next three to six months are investors already looking beyond that . Maybe im just not paying attention but it wasnt as telegraphed, for me at least, as maybe it is for you. It is a bit of big news. I read this is 66 parttime disney probably employs close to a quarter of a million people. You can do the math and see its almost 10 of the workforce. At this point youre trying to figure out where do you get into the name if you havent. That 118 level was resistant forever until it broke out on a number of different reasons, not least of which was disney plus coming to fruition given the news and given the way the stock has been traded, wed probably get there but to me, what this speaks of is lack of clarity there is no way they would do this if they had clarity over the next three to six months, which clearly they dont have and clearly is concerning given how far we are in the timeline of this covid virus. This is much more a story about the portfolio of businesses disney has to offer from a media perspective tim seymour, as you take a look at the moves that disney has made, there is no doubt it has under performed this year, but not to the degree that other covidimpacted leisure and hospitality aspectaspects. Are investors accentuating the positive on disney plus and other parts of the empire besides just the theme parks one of the reasons why investors like me have held this stock for a long time is the diversification in the business. Again, you have a ddt business thats not just disney plus streaming but obviously their consumer products, their studios, their Cable Networks and their Consumer Experiences disney crushed it last quarter on a relative basis because they controlled cost. At a time when we looked at this company for the last six months with a slightly different eye on their balance sheet, im happy to see this news dtc, disney plus leaning into this business before they hit the bottom end of their rage between 60 and 90 million subs for 2024 they got that now. To me, im happy to see as painful as this is and this is indicative of more labor market woes were going to see in this country over the next three months, it is important for this company to get as lean as possible last quarter they showed 1. 1 billion in operating income profit nobody expected them to get to. I think its important theyre trying to get a handle on their expenses. You know the saying never let a crisis go to waste, so maybe theres an opportunity for them to get leaner and to have some cover for them to do that. As great a chollection of properties, as well as the studios that cant release things in studios that are sort of having a rough time paying for like a mulan, i sort of think theres a little more downside to come remember, this company took on a ton of debt to do the fox deal so even if they start to get it together, the valuation is still expensive. Its a premier company it deserves a premier multiple, but it seems to me to have a little bit more of a premium multiple than where it will even be last year. From an investor standpoint, whats the most important part of the disney empire or the disney narrative given what we know about covid, given what we know about the movie studios and theme parks . What part keeps you in the stock over the medium to longterm streaming has been the focus. Remember, streaming is actually costing them money but thats okay. They need to be in the game. Theyre doing a great job of it, but theyve got to get those theme parks open i know its out of their control. Im going to wait and watch. Dan nathan, it seems like a lot of folks are going to be waiting and watching most ofthe analysts that cover this stock have a hold rating on it right now theres probably a reason why. What exactly to you need to see to get more bullish on disney . I think guy hit the nail on the head right out of the gate its just a lack of visibility in this parks business, theres two separate scenarios they have the much smaller park in florida which has been open but i dont think people are particularly going the one in california which they complain a little bit about the restrictions, theres also wildfires there. Theres a lot going on that im not so sure people are going to be crowding into those parks any time soon before there is a vaccine for the virus or some sort of herd immunity. As i think about this story, id say this stock is actually acting pretty rationally when the stock broke down in february from 140, it went straight to 80 thats when the whole market was in a free fall the fact that this stock is back toward that 120 level where it broke out from, i think, a year and a half ago when they announced disney plus, that makes them safe. If you can hang out here, i think it makes a lot of sense. I think you start picking on this thing on the long side between 120 and 110. According to cnbc. Com, right now there are nine hold ratings on disney, 11 buy ratings and it looks like six strong buys, no sales, no underperforms. We have some breaking news on palantier. That Reference Price of 7. 20 is particularly to a direct listing which is what did i hisy based on where theyve been trading in the secondary markets, that in conjunction with consultation with pallentiers advisors and the new york stock exchange. They all Work Together to come up with this Reference Price just to give traders a benchmark or guide post of where to start trading when that Company Begins its debut tomorrow its expected to start trading tomorrow morning. 7. 25 is more where the company was trading in august. In september it was up a bit more, about 9. 17 pallentier is for data mining. They do that for governments and big corporations they said they were expecting about a billion dollars on top line gross the company is still unprofitable it will be interesting to see tomorrow how it debuts the 7. 7. 25 dls, its Important Note no money is actually exchanged at this price. This is really just a guide post for traders for tomorrow mornings trading. At that 7. 25 Reference Price, what is the implied valuation or market cap . Its about 16 billion at that point thank you very much 7. 25 thats the magic benchmark number dan nathan, pallentier has been one of the highest public offerings. It is highly anticipated is this a stock you want to get into at that 16 billion valuation. 16 times sales for a company like this thats not profitable thats been around for 17 years, it seems like in the Public Market theyre going to have to layout a plan how they reach profitability and how they do that routinely then the stock can grow into the valuation were seeing with a lot of these Staff Company where is valuations are off the charts to me, 16 billion to get into something i think is pretty interesting Going Forward i think is pretty interesting. I think with a new listing, youve got to see how this thing trades a little bit. Again, theyre not issuing shares lets see what the supply and demand looks like after a couple days of trading. I do think theres a case where the stock has halready ha a market in this case, i think its actually going to hold the share price down the difference is this is a company that now has a broader set of customers than just government in fact, that the power of their Data Mining Software is something that will give them a high margin business its a business where companies have been shooting to the moon, everything from salesforce to snowflake, you name it i think this is a widely anticipated name that people will want to own i think the valuation is fair. 16 billion at 7. 25 for pal tiers direct listing. The breaking news keeps rolling on this time its on regeneral ron. The company just reporting some promising results for its coronavirus antibody cocktail. Again, not a vaccine, a treatment for covid19 lets get right out to meg tirrell. Reporter the first thats been designed specifically to treat or prevent covid19. This is the earliest data weve seen on their approach they had data from about 275 people who are not hospitalized with the coronavirus or who are diagnosed with the disease they say they are seeing encouraging sign that is the drug may reduce viral levels and reduce symptoms faster than the placebo. They said they saw positive trends in visits to the hospital but the numbers were pretty low in this study because this is a group of patients that typically does get better by themselves. Theyre actually delivering antibodies to the same way a vaccine might induce them or infection might induce them. The Company Holding a Conference Call right now analysts sounding pretty encouraged the stock is still halted. You can see the other Companies Involved in the antibody space lilly reported its resulted a couple weeks ago both of these companies are continuing to run trials in different populations as both treatments for severe disease and potential prevention regener positive signals, still early days, though, guys so lets toss this around guy, ill go to you first with this regeneron. I guess the good news is its probably sold off 60 or 70, maybe 10 or 11 from the recent alltime high. Maybe theres an opportunity to get in depending on what it looks like on the reopen the entire space has been really interesting. Eli lilly is up considerably from its alltime high gilead has been a trough now for the last couple years. I have no idea what moderna is doing, if its high or low in the after hours. In terms of the broader market, is this the news thats going to get us back to that 3393 level in the s p is or is this a nonstarter for the markets to me, thats the most interesting thing out of all of this karen, are there names that stand out to you, the ones you feel are more promising, whether they be on the spectrum of vaccine or treatment or anything else theres are the vaccines promising and theres a question of do you want to own the stock. Do i want to own the stock definitely not youve seen names like moderna up huge and then down. Even if they get there, we dont know what the pricing is going to be, we dont know how theyre going to manufacture enough doses. Thats a lot of things to figure out for each particular company. On the whole, i dont feel like im able to do it. So if i wanted to be in the space at all, i would do it through an etf i wouldnt play particular names specifically for a vaccine. As we look at this, dan nathan, is there anything about this entire industry do people just want to be long biotech as part of their portfolio . This is n thats a good question. When you think about the money and the mind share focused on this industry over the last nine months or so, it is truly remarkable when you think about the work on the treatments and the vaccines the fact of the matter is that a treatment is fantastic theres going to be a bunch of them some are going to work were talking about a treatment right now in 275 patient where is half of them got a placebo. Lets keep it real here, people. None of these vaccines or treatments in the near term are going to open disney world in the near term. When i think about this space, i want to think about abbott, i want to think about these Rapid Testing systems. That is probably the easiest way to get schools and businesses open that havent been open. A lot of people are going to be really skeptical about some of these drugs. Until we can have them in mass quantities and until we have enough time to evaluate the efficacy of them, theyre not going to do what the stock market thinks they can do in the near term. Coming up, were all over the action in shares of micron as well. I cant wiat to share at ts big 5g news. shouting through the glass at t has nationwide 5g . Yup and thats faster . Faster, yea but is it reliable . Ah huh and secure you should consider making a big deal about it bigger . I said bigger oh, bigbigger deal bigger than what im doing . Its not complicated. A 5g Network Needs a 5g device. Now everyone including existing customers can get a free Samsung Galaxy note20 after tradein. Breaking news. In just the last hour or so, we heard that disney is planning to lay off around 28,000 people across all sectors those shares down 1. 5 right now on nearly half a million shares of after hours volume. Well continue to monitor that story. We are also following a developing story out of washington, d. C. Over a new proposed 2. 2 trillion stimulus plan reporter a source tells me that treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin is likely to make a counter proposal when he talks to House Speaker nancy pelosi tomorrow now, the two of them already spent 50 minutes on the phone today discussing a 2. 2 trillion stimulus plan from the democrats. So far there have been some positive signs from both parties. Pelosi has said shes optimistic white house chief of staff mark meadows said he is hopeful that progress can be made the white house recently signalled it would be willing to go up to 1. 5 trillion well see if that number changes tomorrow there are several areas in which the white house and democrat dos agree. The democrats bill includes 180 billion for j caseducation. Theres also an extensigsion ofi for the hardest hit businesses the question remains how much money for unemployment assistance or direct checks to consumers. Those are the line items that will determine whether or not these talks move forward or fizzle out once more thank you for the latest on the d. C. Deliberations how are stocks hanging on these hopes for a stimulus package karen finerman, how important is that, the extra money from the government, if it comes, to the overall market its gigantic i think that for the market we have sort a month ago priced stimulus as near 100 . Obviously that didnt happen now i think the market is pricing, i dont know, Something Like 10 , 20 if it actually does happen, thats a giant boon for the market. Tim seymour, weve been focused very much on whats happening with covid19, the trajectory of the virus, the stimulus package just yesterday we talked about the fact that its all a wash in liquidity. How important is this story given the fact that Central Banks keep pumping out money karen has emphasized this is an important story just look at the s p i think you have to look at it, once again, relative to where we came from. We came from absurd levels in august where the Biggest Companies in the world had blowoff tops the s p fell 10 , the triple qs and the nasdaq close to 118 the s p has rallied back up 5 simply to say i think you actually have in the last three or four days priced back in a fair amount of excitement about this 2. 2 trillion coming it seems to me that this is a case where the market does need more at some point, however, i do think out any real delivery of this, the market is going to struggle and i think this 50 right now is actually resistance on the market. The fed, as you pointed out and i will say all day long, is the ultimate story here in why i think the market has limited downside but i think it tests lower. We are just Getting Started here on fast money. Here is whats coming up next. Announcer its never too early to set the countdown to christmas. Will it be a happy holiday for retailers . Or will they all get a lump of coal in their stockings . Well dive into the debt markets to get some answers. Ldd later were looking at some goen opportunities in Precious Metals where options traders think gold is headed next hmms and ahhs heard incall. Welcome back to fast money. It was a tough day for retail overall. The xrt etf that tracks the space falling 1. 5 today check out some of these mallbased names, macys kohls, nordstr nordstrom, the gap, all finishing deep in the red on the day. And your next guest says there could be even more pain ahead for some of these types of names. Chris white, thank you very much for being out here with us lets talk about whether or not this retail trade can bounce back and how exactly do traders and investors play it. I think a big part of looking at the Retail Sector, the story is being told in the debt markets. Obviously with covid19 hitting the market in late february early march, there were a lot of questions how retailers would survive. What we saw is that gap, macys, l. Brands, nordstroms. Overall we saw flat customer flow by volume, which just tells you that the Bond Investors themselves did not lose faith in retailers and actually were down in terms of buying and selling activities so i was going to say that following up on that comment, that implies theres some kind of a handicapping about the viability of these businesses if the debt markets and debt invest

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