Table . Speaker pelosi says theres a chance she and the treasury secretary can still reach a deal later, pause for tiktok why a judge sided with bytedance and blocked the Trump Administration ban. Futures do imply a big open to start this monday morning of course, coming off the first fourweek decline of the year. Mike, you did some writing over the weekend. Largely about the degree to which september is doing the job its supposed to do. That being the sort of pause that refreshes the argument here is that if we came into september with the markets at record highs and everything looking very stretched to the upside and sentiment and the technical position of stocks and maybe even hopes for an immediate stimulus and this fourweek decline has largely reset a lot of those factors right. You have sentiment very muchal coo acooled off and huge short position develop in nasdaq futures and pretty much 180 degrees on that front. I would say back in the neutral zone, not necessarily super bearish and then, you know, you have 10 to 20 coming off the top of a lot of the leading nasdaq stocks and just resetting, i think, expectations in a large way and then maybe the final piece of that and i talk about this for a couple weeks we have front loaded so much anxiety about the election and whether well have an outcome or whether we wont and a ton of hedging and i think build up of cash and worry in advance of that which at least argues that people arent going in blindly thinking this is going to be smooth and all of a sudden the Fourth Quarter rally is starting you dont ring a bell at the top or the bottom of a correction. I wouldnt say that somehow its got to happen this way last week was somehow the low of this pull back seems cute to get to 10 and take off, again. Not surprising to say the risk reward is better than it was four weeks ago, kelly. Wouldnt you say the biggest divide on the street right now is if we resume, is it the old stuff that resumes or the new stuff . Right . Do we go back to big tech is working because it had a little correction and a little pull back here and the people who say this stuff is going to be the trend for, you know, years to come those are the places you have to be versus everyone who has been arguing for value over growth. Not to overgeneralize, but if the macro is in tact and still getting better, then it is the materials or the financials which have had a good day here and there. To me it feels like so much comes down to which leadership segment you think is going to resume wouldnt it frankly be a good sign if its some of the value stuff, although i think we would take it either way i agree that is absolutely the debate and i do think what i would characterize as a broadening of the rally or more of a cyclical tone to the rally. I dont know if you want to get caught up in definitional stuff but value will take you to financials and energy and chain retail and a lot of busted Business Models. Value as it is defined hasnt worked that well but cyclical to your point, industries doing dpin all the internal stuff, if you look at how september has behaved has not really told you that the market is registering fresh anxiety about, you know, the economy going into some kind of a double dip. Much more about field position and getting some of the froth off the market so, i do agree with you there. I dont know if its one type or the other. I think everyone would be happy if we do not have five big tech stocks, you know, pitching a shutout against the rest of the market, which is the way it felt back in august carl, i think thats the way that maybe we could come out of this and not have it be one way or the other right, right. Thats why its so important, guys, to keep our eyes on whats happening in europe in regards to covid and, of course, here in the states were averaging about 43,000 new cases a day thats up 24 in a couple weeks, kelly. Maybe, i mean, maybe the sort of bearish data points that mike points to with the Short Interest positioning, some of the highyield spreads, perhaps and outflows are there for a reason because we are, again, trying to discount whether or not the phenomenon that is happening in europe as we go into the fall is going to be something that we see here in the states, even as states like florida lift virtually all of their covid restrictions on things like restaurants. Bingo, carl heres the question. So, you start to see the case count here pick up again and were going to have a little bit of a laboratory. If a state like florida says people will take the precautions they have to take but unless our Health Care System is overwhelmed or something, we are not shutting this thing down my guess is a little impact from people choosing to stay in but were going to maybe see a very different economy through the Second Time Around and look at what happened over the summer. We had covid spreading in june and july in this country and the rebound was happening because the shut downs were over and stuff was starting to reopen, again. So, it reminds me of when i we were talking to tilmon last week and see said, look, i can operate my restaurants if you just tell me what the number is. 50 , 25 , 75 . Give me something. What every business wants to know, am i going to get shut down again or not . If not, ill figure out a way through this of course, new york city starts Indoor Dining on wednesday and well watch that closely. You know, mike, as far as vaccine news go. Nothing linear we have some great news out of j and j, not surprising news but positive data points and today i put on hold because the fda has additional questions including about its delivery device. A series of steps forward and step backward. No doubt about it i do think that both the risks of fall and winter case counts going up, as well as a little bit of a bumpy ride in terms of vaccine approval theyre going to be the push pull of this market even as were in the time window i have been saying this for a while. In the time window when there is the premise that were going to have some kind of vaccine hitting the market even if its not about broad distribution, it just seems like there is this sense in here there that there is upside risk to the market because were not sitting here wondering if theres solutionspen so i dont think one days moves pinned on vaccine disappointments or hopes but people are assuming were moving in the right direction if the market looks six months ahead, its kind of figuring that somewhere in that sixmonth zone well have better, not worse opportunities to fight back against the virus carl yeah, yeah. Maybe with some, maybe with stimulus in the meantime, guys as we watch commentary from the speaker about potential compromises between her and the treasury secretary eamon is with us with the partisanship shifting to the judicial, the stimulus plan well, a lot of logic in washington maybe that takes some of the focus away and allow dealmakers to make a deal here. So, there is some political sense to that but nancy pelosi was on television yesterday on cnn and she was talking about that 2. 4 trillion proposal that democrats have she says theyre going to move forward with it this week and they may put it on the floor but she was couching it all as if this bill that theyre talking about is really a lever to get the negotiations up and running again in full steam. Shes talking about reaching some kind of accommodation with Steven Mnuchin as soon as this week and she said there is a chance for that, even though the political dynamices have not played out that way at all so far this year. So, pelosi sort of raising the idea of a deal, but theres so much hanging over this negotiation, carl, as you point out. The Supreme Court nomination is just one of those things we have the president ial debate tomorrow night and one of the questions will be, do we see a gamechanging performance from either of the two candidates there. That can shift the political dynamic and the calculations on both sides of the aisle. The Government Shutdown bill, there is a deal in place weve been told to make sure that that moves this week before the end of the fiscal year well see if that deal holds and they are able to keep a clean Government Shutdown bill moving forward. And keep the government open and then, of course, the Supreme Court battle just so much emotion around that, carl democrats particularly frustrated that the president is moving forward on the eve of a president ial election here when republicans had suggested thats not at all the way to handle this under barack obama now saying under donald trump, yep, were going to move forward. Theres emotion and intensity around that and you have a lot of democrats who are saying we need to shut down the entire process in washington in order to raise our objections and make it felt that were against this, even though the democrats dont have the votes it seems at this point to stop the president s pick here. So, any one of those things could change the dynamic and well watch all of it this week, carl you know, eamon, for several weeks majority leader mcconnell would come on and say i have 20 senators in my caucus who feel they added enough to the federal debt is there a sense that number has dwindled as Companies LikeAmerican Airlines have talked about the cliff that comes with layoffs really beginning this thursday or the first . Yeah, look, i think one of the things that will really dwindle that number is if you see those layoffs come to fruition as long as theyre theoretical and the devastation of families and economic livelihoods that come along with it thats all sort of political theory once that happens that is very real and senators would feel it. You would think that would be something that would change the calculation. But the president has not really been out there twisting republican arms. He has not been making the case to Senate Republicans that this is something that he absolutely wants. He has also been skeptical too much spending among these democratic proposals he said this is just money going to democratic states and democratic cities for their mismanagement for years ago and this isnt something i want to get involved in. Does the debate and does the timing of the election and does any of that change his calculation as he moves forward . Does he want to start twisting arms to get a deal done . We havent seen it so far. The odds of doing something piece meal instead of one big bill i think he called it kids and jobs he said they would move forward on ppp and aid for schools i mean, does it feel to you like that is a possible way forward here to do smaller, specific bills instead of one larger one . No, i dont think so. And the reason why is that if democrats agree to that, theyd be giving up their leverage. Democrats know that they are very popular political things in here and their leverage is to use those things and tap some of those other things on to it in one large package. Nancy pelosi had said as much explicitly if democrats would move smaller bills they would give up the other things they want tactically it doesnt seem it is where theyre going to go. Eamon, thanks a huge story for the markets as a potential for a compromise remains on investors minds. For that well turn to eunice tiktok and bytedance where please would the injunction mainly because americans can continue to use and download the app in the United States but the decision does not cover the broader band that is is set to go into effect on november 12th because of that tonight state media have been lashing out, once again, at the deal. Saying even though the injunction is welcome that beijing would undoubtedly prepare a countermeasure for what it says could become piracy and looting by the United States now, the structure of the deal is unclear and beijing has made it quite clear that its concerned that beijing and bytedance can lose control just a couple hours ago, the china daily posted that any deal would have to muster with beijing since they restrict exports of technology. Quoting exports over the last couple days saying that beijing has 30 worksin ing days from whn bytedance applied to get approval from the company. A lot of questions about whether or not beijing would want to stall the decision and see if it would be a more favorable outcome past the election because those 30 working days, carl, takes us right up to november 3rd eunice, just based on what the messaging is that youve detailed right there, i mean, the chinese authorities seemingly willing to allow the shut down to happen if thats really what it comes down to both sides trying to play a harder line. Yeah, thats right. I mean, it really is a game of chicken because on the one hand, if you do see tiktok shutting down that would just be a terrible outcome for china, which has for so long really hoped to see its Chinese Companies become global players. And tiktok and bytedance is really one of the few Chinese Companies that has made headway in this regard on the other hand, it is worried about losing control to the americans. And, of course, you could argue that thats a bit ironic given that a tiktok wouldnt even exist in china because the Chinese Government would never allow it eunice, thanks for that well watch it closely kelly, what do you make of the argument that tiktoks lawyer made to the judge and were waiting for the opinion. Why would you ban something when negotiations are under way to make that whole thing unnecessary . Although, carl, what is it t the judge . Its interesting to me i know we spoke with senator cruz this morning on squawk box about this and its just, again, im not a lawyer and im not a judicial expert but questions of the americas negotiating stance as it relates to china would seem beside the point, right yeah, were going to wait and might be more in the opinion which i think is going to be issued today as we said, guys, futures indicating a nice jump here at the open on this monday morning with the dow, s p and nasdaq all coming off their best day in a couple of weeks. Dow may jump by 350 and were going to watch really the 100day moving average today as quk t see ibatability sawonhetrts ck in a minute. A lot of working theories on why futures are strong today is it about europe and asia catching up to the u. S. On friday is it about China Industrial profits up for four straight months or upgrades for fedex, u. P. S. , spotify and well lkta about all of that with the opening bell in just about 12 minutes. When i was laid off. It was absolutely terrifying. I felt like i was just fighting an uphill battle in my career. As a little kid i knew that i wanted to work with computers. So when i heard about the applied Digital Skills courses, that definitely appealed to me. Youre learning how to create spreadsheets, documents, forms and surveys. Im thinking i can become more marketable. I got to about the third course and im like, you know, i probably could do this for a living. You dont need to be a computer expert to be great at this. These are skills lots and lots of people can learn. I feel hopeful about the future now. Its empowering to have that knowledge that nobody can take away from you. Its fake news. Totally fake news. Made up, fake. We went through the same stories you could have asked me the same questions four years ago i had to litigate this and talk about it totally fake news. No, actually i paid tax. And youll see that as soon as my tax returns its under order theyve been under order for a long time. That was the president yesterday in response to the New York Times story on his taxes. Robert frank has more on what that report showed robert kelly, well it shows large income offset by Large Business losses thats the picture emergic from the New York Times report studying the 20 years of tax returns now. Now he earned over 600 million in income since 2005 the vast majority of that over 420 million came from the apprentice and related marketing and 176 million from the two Office Buildings one in new york and the other in San Francisco and about 20 million a year from the office and retail space of trump tower now, he took all of that cash and earnings and went on a buying binge in the mid 2000s buying golf courses and the Washington Hotel, which have all lost hundreds of millions of dollars when it comes to the tax returns. Now, his club losing 1 162 million through 2018 and the Washington Hotel losing 56 million. Maralago is the one stand out appearing to benefit from the president s election initiation fees soaring to 6 million from only 660,000 in 2016 the president taking out 26 million in income from that club before 2018. That is three times the earlier amounts that he had taken out. Now, he also has a lot of debt hes defaulted or not paid back over 200 million in debt and has another 421 million that he has personally guaranteed with the vast majority of that coming due in the next four years and, unfortunately, he wont get any work from Financial Investments or these markets he actually sold all of his stocks over 200 million worth between 2014 and 2016. Carl, a bit ironic for a man who has paid so much attention to the stock market that hes now been invested. Back to you. Robert, well watch to see what the response is with the debate tomorrow night and come wonder if that is a gamechanging event. Robert, thanks take a break here as we watch the futures and awaiting the opening bell in a few moments. Keep your eye on the dollar. Obviously an important story today as we watch some of the chcalelsasell. Back in a minute as business moves forward, were all changing the way things get done. Like how we redefine collaboration. How we come up with new ways to serve our customers. And deliver our products. But no matter how things change, one thing never will. You can rely on the people and the network of at t. To help keep your business connected. Fair number of upgrades to talk about on this monday morning as we get ready for the opening bell include, kelly, upgrade fedex out of deutsche. They go to 318 a series of these upgrades