Everywhere as more and more companies file for bankruptcy. A to analyst says a number of fla names could come out stronger. Later, what makes tiktok tick. An inside look that is dominatidominate ing social media as china is saying it would rather shut down the service in the u. S. Than succumb to a forced deal well tell you about that as power lunch starts right now thanks welcome to power lunch lets take a closer look at plarkts right now. You have industrials and materials leading the way higher in fact, materials is the only sector in the green this week. We havent talked a lot about that as a source of leadership tech that had been the leadership havent recovered from the steep sell off. The nasdaq still down about 11 from its record high its worst for a lot of the individual names docusign down from its 30 high. Tesla down 27 from its all time high apple is lower today apple is down about 20 from its high as well apple near a 3 decline. Tyler, back to you with can skinny stimulus plan, its off the table investors fears have started to seep into the market fewer than ten working day on capitol hill where lawmakers and white house officials are facing a september 30th deadline to fund the government. Im going to leave that one the fiscal year ends september 30th i dont want to get engaged. I dont want to negotiate publicly reporter playing coy there kudlow declined to say what executive actions the white house could take but a separate white house official tells me all of those discussions are in the brainstorming phase. Theres nothing close to the end of the pipeline just let. In the cost of Government Debt they saved about 53 billion in interest when talking about numbers this high, its really hard to fathom what that even looks like. An annual deficit of 3 trillion is anybody talking about a Government Shutdown . Reporter no. Both sides of the aisle, both of sides of pennsylvania avenue have all said they are intent on avoiding a Government Shutdown they know it would make Neither Party look good. They want to avoid that show down President Trump said yesterday hes not going to do anymore Government Shutdowns for now thanks very much. We appreciate it have a great weekend with the race for the house tightening and speeding up as well, with biden leading in the Major National polls and in many of the swing states, its getting closer no stimulus deal in sight. The uncertainty is starting to weigh on investors to make sense of the risks in washington and whose policies are better for the market, here to help us are ron and Libby Cantrell she is head of Public Policy at pemco. I want to go right to the heart of the question and thats the question of politics im going to set the skinny stimulus aside and well come back to that i want to know whether either of you think that if joe biden were elected president , it would be poison to the markets. Libby, you go first. Good afternoon. No pressure here thanks so much look, i think that every one was humbled in 2016 in terms of making definitive market predictions around president ial election outcomes. You remember the expectation was the market wouldnt do very well if President Trump were to be elected in november of 2016. Of course, the market has done very well during that time period, at least up until the start of the pandemic. I think this is Risky Business biden would be accompanied by a narrowly divided senate. The market would be inclined to sell off with the expectation of higher tax rate, probably more regulation you could see a lot more government spending. You could see more Infrastructure Spending and you could see a come prehence ifr testing and Contact Tracing program under a Biden Administration and in terms of distribution of a vaccine. In some ways there could be kind of positives here that the market may not kind of look through or initially but reflectively, probably on november 4th, we to do know the outcome of the election and its a biden accompanied with a Democratic Congress probably reflects a risk offset of it let me make sure i understand you correctly and ill get ron to respond i think i heard you say that if theres a democratic sweep of biden presidency, a narrow democraticmajority in the senate and the house that the market would be inclined to sell off a bit but not catastrophically so, right yeah. Thats a good way to summarize if you look at what the risks to market were under a democratic president and if we were talking about a Bernie Sanders presidency or Elizabeth Warren presidency, i think the sell off would have been much more dramatic because of joe biden, who he is, hes more center left, i think that the kind of the room in terms of Market Movement is going to be lesser than it would be under those alternative scenarios. Right ron, let me get you to react to what you heard and some people in politics say if joe biden is elected, your 401 k will go to zero yeah. Thats very likely to happen i think everybodys 401 k goes straight to zero and theres no hope to see gains in stock market again that type of hyperbole that people like to now out flies in the face of reality. Ro Ronald Reagan has a bull mark and a crash. Bill clinton had a bull market and a crash. Barack obama had a straight up market for the most part and donald trump has had a bull market and a crash trying to base this on the presidency is a fools errand. The composition of government has been proven to be most measurable when it comes to stock market returns a democrat president and Republican Congress provide about 10 annual rates of return and any other combination is typically have that. I think basing one stock market view on who the president is given the circumstances that we have today, i think it could go either way i do think that when you look at a biden presidency from a different per spspective with respect to how we deal with allies and trade, maybe a more constructive manner, it could be a net positive for the underlying economy which is disproportionately suffering through the pandemic i hasnt thought of it the way you thought of it. You are a market historian reagan had a bull market and crash. So did bush. So did clinton, so did trump when ever we look at those poll numbers showing biden up 51 to 42 or whatever it is, thats nationwide never, ever forget that what we have in this country is 50 separate state elections for president. Libby, what about the possibility of a so called skinny stimulus between now and election day. Six states are really important. Watching florida, President Trumps vix tri really will have to go through florida and vice versa for biden. In terms of this skinny stimulus, ive been saying for months now that its a question of when, not if but that when has been much more theyed than i want expecting i think going into the election for these members, both on the house side and vulnerable republicans in the Senate Without any additional stimulus, it just seems like so much Political Risk with that said, in negotiations are are at a stand still, the sides arent talking now i think it is, it doesnt necessarily look for optimistic. With that said, dont underestimate Political Risk as a motivating factofactor how much volatility are we likely to see between now and election day does it continue the way it has be been i would assume valuations you have 50 Million People in the United States wobordering on not being able to afford food and you have people on assistance the skinny bill did not have that much in there for people to bank on. You need a broader stimulus bill you also have fiscal year ending for cities and states. They will start Cutting Services and jobs possibly before the election because theres no money for them coming from the federal government at all. I think thats the biggest Political Risk as you can see another wave of layoffs and a dip in Consumer Spending before the election without any further help from the federal government thank you have great weekend kelly. Despite the volatility lately, retail traders are more engaged with the stock market than ever. Robinhood continues to lead the pack we have the latest numbers on how they are doing kate retail traders have been logging onto check their portfolios at record levels. J and p securities looked at web traffic. Web site visits continued to climb in recent months out pacing levels prior to the pandemic analysts indicate a bit more interest many their financial lives. Justice of the peace looked at mobile app down loads. That adviser tends to give bit e flavor the data doesnt include the past two weeks but based on this recent market action, analyst expects the online traffic to be even higher for september. Kelly, tyler, back do you. Theres so many questions about robinhoods path does it pursue an ipo . Tr theres a larger question about their Business Model if the sec cracks down or if other rivals are able to compete it away like schwab, for instance is robinhood going to have the rug pulled out from it i think the regulation question is huge they make the majority of their payment on options if that becomes an issue, you could see robinhood have to adjust and that really is the main way they are making money i think regulators are already paying attention you have consolidation in the industry yet robinhood has seen Massive Customer growth. Well see if that continues through the quarter. Coming up, china saying it would rather see bike dance shutter tiktoks u. S. Operation than sell. Well dig into that next while thousands of Small Businesses are suffering, some big names could actually stand to come out stronger from the p pandemic as shoppers move online lreal twel vehose names later after this quick break this is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. A lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. And tailored recommendations. Thats it. Im calling kohler about their walkin bath. [ sigh ] not gonna happen. My name is ken. How may i help you . Hi, im calling about kohlers walkin bath. Excellent happy to help. Huh . Hold one moment please. [ finger snaps ] hmm. The kohler walkin bath features an extrawide opening and a low stepin at three inches, which is 25 to 60 lower than some leading competitors. The bath fills and drains quickly, while the heated seat soothes your back, neck and shoulders. Kohler is an expert in bathing, so you can count on a deep soaking experience. Are you seeing this . The kohler walkin bath comes with fully adjustable hydrotherapy jets and our exclusive bubblemassage. Everything is installed in as little as a day by a kohlercertified installer. And its made by kohler americas leading plumbing brand. We need this bath. Yes. Yes you do. A kohler walkin bath provides independence with peace of mind. Call. For one thousand dollas off your walkin bath plus a free kohler bidet seat with purchase. Welcome back reuters reporting that china could rather see tiktok close its operations than face a ban the deadline is fast approaching. President trump saying last night he wont extend it the head of instagram exprezzed concerns over a potential tiktok ban earlier today. Any short farm benefit would be in terms of stifling a competitor right now is greatly outweighed by the risks of a more fragmented internet we benefit from the ability to operate in countries all around the world. If we move to where countries start to silo within them and we cant operate in that way, i think that is much, much more proper problematic. Shares of microsoft, walmart and oracle are trading lower today after that reuters report. Sarah, its good to see you. Lets start with this reporting that china may close tiktok down do you think they would follow through on that threat yeah. I think they dont want to appear weak to washington, d. C if washington, d. C. Says the only way they can exist in the u. S. Is through a sale and china thinks that washington would have the upper hand in making that happen, they might follow through with that threat its 100 million u. S. Users for a big tech company, sure bite dance is not one of their Biggest Tech Companies i think china wants leverage over the d. C. Market above all else its interesting because tiktok does have a fair amount of political activity on it. This could play a role in the Upcoming Elections its ban would leave a void. Of course why does donald trump want to ban a app used by 100 approximate people used before the election the answer could be hes petty theres a coalition of users on tiktok that tried to game the tulsa, oklahoma rally he had a few months ago that angered him the trump add mgs seeing this as way to undermine china without impacting too many u. S. Jobs its not like at this point they employ hundreds of thousands of people in the u. S. They Just Launched reals which is their tiktok like thing. Its not americas fault the internet is fragmenting. If hes concerned about that, im not sure tiktok will be the reason we face a lot higher walls for the internet in the future than we face right now. No, but it represents this tension for u. S. And china that could impact further trade deals to expand partnerships online. Say there was another Chinese Company like ten cent that wants to buy a 10 stake in spotify or snap chat. I wonder how much of this comes down to the u. S. Versus china for control of the internet if its an open forum, one or the other will decide the rules and the alternative its not a chinese internet and one of rest of world, used in the u. S. Netflix ceo said theyre not in chi china. China said their business is globally regardless. Should we really believe that instagram wouldnt be able to. Just depends on the markets are for those products i think the concept of having two internets is very real one of those internets is censored the chinese internet doesnt have the same freedom as the western internet exactly final question, the deadline is looming. Its been eerily quiet on a deal front. It looked like it was sewed up a week ago to walmart, microsoft what are you thinking now as the deadline fast approaches the question is on bite dance. We know the walmart and the Microsoft Party are still very interested in this purchase. Expect tiktok to sue if theres no teal. Thats good for americans. I wouldnt think that the tiktok app is going to go away quite yet while the Legal Process bears it out interesting its going to court. Thank you very gratulating jp m ordering every one back to the Office Next Week thats not the message the bank delivered to its employees well clarify that one fedex up 150 from the march lows well tell you how the traders are betting ahead of that report when power lunch continues after this eritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Mhm, yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. Now offering zero commissions on online trades. We charge you less so you have more to invest. To deliver your packages. And the peace of mind of knowing that important things like your prescriptions, and ballots, are on their way. Every day, all across america, well keep delivering for you. Fedex out with earning after the bell on monday the shipping giant could see a wind fall as the pandemic continues to accelerate ecommerce sales it plans to hire 70,000 additional workers for the peak season fedex and u. P. S. Out performing the Broader Market this year fed ex up by more than 50 lets bring in Craig Johnson and steve. Home deliveries are up 25 compared to the same period a year ago i guess thats reflected in shares of fedex and u. P. S. Given the big gains not just over the year but the past three months i think the story, ironically much like it was 19 years ago at industry level is one of resiliency and adaptation. The economy has proved to be resilient. Were bouncing back. The recession is over. The recovery is taking hold. Were adapting i think that is both of those. The rise of ecommerce which we expect to continue and the fact the economy has exited recession and is in recovery will fw good for deliveries in general and will be specifically good for the business of both fedex and u. P. S. I think thats a trend that continues. I think the next question is can these companies Harness Technology in order the droive down costs. Which stock would you own here i think the reopening trade means that both of these could be winners if i got to pick one, im going to pick fedex. The reason being is when you look at chart, i may a ratio chart of fedex divided by u. P. S. , you can see that u. P. S. Has been lagging fedex and when i look at the chart of u. P. S. Its very extended a lot of the good news is priced in you dont have that with fedex looks like were setting ourselves up to retest the old highs. Playing that trend of the reopening trade specifically for the business of business