Yields crumble this move lower has huge implications on commodities, rates and multinational stocks tim, you say this is the sloppiest chart in the market right now. Why . This has not been orderly sloppy for the dollar is not something we should feel confident about. In the shortterm, i think the dollar is oversold i think we could see the dollar bounce a bit but i think this trend is intact i think its supported by some of the fiscal dynamics and really also a current account surplus in europe that people kind of forget about and banks that are a bit better in europe. What does this mean for oil . We forget that oil was really the asset class that led us down into the abyss this was a sunday evening when people were concerned about the rest of the world and you saw that saudi and russia were not going to deal with oil prices. What it meant for asset prices around the world and certainly for hard assets is very dramatic oil is the last to recover these charts have been consolidating. Theres actually been fundamentals to support it as well even though we know its not runaway demand. You have had better pmis around the world. You have a dynamic where Inflation Expectations are absolutely moving higher api inventory numbers this morning, you had a draw of 8. 6 they were expecting a draw of 2. 6. I think oil is the last chart to really recover i think theres substantial upside have supply demand dynamics for the equities gotten Better Capital allocation is equity friendly the oil services have been the best way to play t yes, i like this trade stay there im going to go to rainman here do you remember that date that tim was referring to i feel like it might be in your brain rattling around somewhere under your coifed hair. Im assuming youre talking to me. Yeah. I dont remember the exact date but i absolutely remember the weekend. It obviously caught the entire market off guard because you saw what happened to the price of crude oil the next day and subsequent weeks crudes a funny thing. When it was higher the administration wanted it lower then it went lower and they wanted it higher now its higher. Getting back to the u. S. Dollar, i understand why for multinationals this is a good thing and this is the First Administration i think in the history of our republic that has ultimately talked about the want to have a lower dollar at a certain point a lower dollar is no longer bullish. By the way, folks, a lower dollar is extraordinarily inflationary if you dont think it is, youre not paying attention your buying power goes down. By definition, that means its inflationary its the fed reserves actions that are creating this. This is really a double edged sword. Karen, how do you look at the weaker dollar, a positive for equities or negative i think maybe in the shortterm its a positive i think that real rates are negative now we see the tenyear come in a little bit real rates have gone down a lot. Whats the rest of that is inflation. Inflation is here. In the shortterm i think that that will be somewhat of a floor for equities you dont want to be in fixed income when there is inflation it also ultimately will have the benefit of helping to the extent that we have trillions of dollars of debt, inflation would help us get out of that debt, but obviously at some great cost so i dont know how long they can sort of keep a lid on it i want to have exposure to inflation, because i think it is going to be here so gold, ive been looking at gold thats interesting to me, but bitcoin also i mean, oil is in some ways inflation but its also fundamentally driven the dollar being weaker makes oil more expensive, but demand also makes oil more expensive and demand is coming back somewhat i think this is the first time in the history of fast money that Karen Finerman has said shes looking into gold oftentimes you say i dont get gold yet here we are in this new world. Are you on board that gold train too or are you into other sort of weak dollar plays yeah. I would focus more on the weak dollar plays you hear a lot of people talk. They try to sound smart, saying investing in bits versus adams we know what that is its old economy versus new economy. Theres nothing new in that. When you think about whats going on with a weak dollar and rising oil, we know that the weak Dollar Benefits these large mega cap multinationals. They borrow here at basically nothing. They buy back their stock. They used to make acquisitions by competition and expand overseas its great for their margins high oil is not a high input cost for them, so they benefit from the strong dollar on the flip side one of the reasons weve seen manufacturing and industrials and transports s lag of laid is because of that rally back in crude. Its exasperating a trend that were already seeing here. As far as gold, karen, call me, lets talk about this. 2,000 bucks for the First Time Ever maybe its not the best time to start looking at it. Im just saying. I understand that dan would say call me, baby, to tim or guy either for all of you chomping at the bit to criticize him. Im jealous come on, dan. There are also some thoughts that perhaps the dollar is losilose ing its status as the worlds reserve currency is it too early to start thinking about that . No, i dont think its too early to start thinking about that at all. Thats absolutely problematic. Im one of those fed bashers so you can at me all you want on twitter, but dont think for a minute that creating 6 trillion out of thin air isnt leading to this at a certain point its going to be a problem i understand why everybody thinks this weaker u. S. Colldolr is this great thing for markets and stuff, but its not. Im glad karen mentioned real rates are negative the same thing with tenyear yields at a certain point those lower yields stop being bullish for equities and we are precariously close to those levels. I think the tenyear got below 51 basis points. Were flirting with levels we last saw back in march although the equity markets are telling you one thing, i totally get it, im not one of these people thats crazy bullish, but i understand whats going on underneath the surface there are a lot of things that are concerning im with karen on gold i dont think its too late at all. I hear dan whasbut youre going come in one day and see the price of gold is up 200 and silver is up 8 and you say whats going on and the next day its going to happen again we are on the precipice of that as well. Letorie, welcome back in terms of the dollar weakening, is this a concern on your radar right now its absolutely on our radar. I agree with the term dollar dilemma. There are positives and negatives. On the Positive Side the first thing that jumps in my mind is hey this is great for earnings positions in the u. S when the dollar is weakening year over year, you tend to get upward revisions in the s p 500. You see it for things like industrials, energy and materials to the graeatest extent we also know that when the dollar is weakening, we tend to see u. S. Equities underperform nonu. S. Equities. I think there are positives and negatives. Perhaps its easier to make a relative call here more than an absolute call. I agree with the currency call, what it means for Global Equities if you had to go around the world to a region, where would you want to be investing right now based on both the currency factor and the fundamentals . We dont get that granular in our calls in terms of making those regional bets. In my work what i really keep noticing is the contrast of u. S. Relative to europe my phones been ringing off the look over the last few months talking to european investors and Global Investors based in europe who are worried about the u. S. Elections what i tend to see on things like valuation, the u. S. Looks expensive versus pretty much every region but you especially see it relative to europe. When we look at global large cap equity funds, the u. S. Allocations in these funds have been sitting for the last year really at alltime highs theyve just been hovering theyre overowned. Investors know it. Thats why theyre worried about the election european allocations are at rock bottom levels for about a year when i look at u. S. Versus europe, i really see the rotation that needs to happen from a positioning perspective lorie, i here a lot about how much money there is on the sidelines and yet youre talking about overallocation is othe money somewhere else where is it . When you look at the cash level, it depends on whose cash youre talking about we know that rel tail invetail s have built a lot of cash if you look at the institutional managers, they arent typically allowed to hold a lot of cash. Some of these Global Investors have stashed money in the u. S. For safe haven purposes. Thats sort of a proxy for safety there is cash out there in other investor bases, as set Allocations Funds have a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines. Whats interesting about those funds, though, when you look at their n their nonu. S. Equity exposure, thats also at rock bottom levels at the top you were talking about sort of the push pull of the weak dollar in terms of positives and negatives. At what point does dollar weakness become a negative for the market the way im thinking about it today and this may not hold true over time, but one of the risks we see for the market is what we call earnings sentiment may be on the precipice of a peak that stat is currently tracking at 66 it typically tops out somewhere in the 70 range another week or two we could get there pretty fast. This indicator is moving up sharply. If we start to see the Analyst Community get very excited about the benefits of a weaker dollar two ea to earnings expectations, that could taste take us to that peak thank you thanks for having me. Tim, ill go to you since youre known as the ambassador in fast money circles in terms of the weak dollar. There was a time at least. There is still a time right now to call you the ambassador and the eem specialist where in emerging markets do you like the best, which markets well, the currency i think as it relates to china is not going to be as obvious of a play, but certainly a tailwind we certainly had a lot of fear around chinese investing i still think mega cap chinese stocks are very interesting. If you look at the msciem or the ticker eem or the vwo, your samsung, alibaba, ten cent very top heavy. Those are all stocks you can own. If we look at germany, the industrial story where the auto makers start to look a little bit more interesting, obviously that is a very big german industrial trade those would be the places i would be excited about Warren BuffettsBerkshire Hathaway betting big on bank of america. Berkshire has been buying for 12 straight sessions and now has a roughly 12 take in bank of america. Should you jump on the buffett bandwagon . Karen, youre there. Ive been on the buffett bandwagon. A couple of years it would have been much more positive for the stock than its been i dont know if this is some of the wells fargo money thats now flowing back into bank of america. But i really like this story clearly were going to see giant credit losses but theyve been provisioning for that for two quarantiner e quarters now its an extraordinary franchise. It is not expensive. I think that ultimate lly its just too cheap here. Dan, lets say the oracle of omaha picked up his motorola flip phone, he has an iphone now. He calls you, dan, and says what do you think of my buying bank of america for the past dozen straight sessions . What would you tell the oracle i think its a nice meaty stock. I would say its the only thing in this stock market that makes any sense to me is the underperformance in bank stocks in 2020. I know that sounds kind of weird, but its the one group that is actually maybe adequately pricing some of the headwinds that we have in our economy, some of the scars we are going to feel from this recession and just the likelihood that our economy has changed and the way it comes back over the next couple of years is going to be different. Its a cheap stock all those people railing against Bank Regulation after the financial crisis, they should be very happy it was in place because these stocks might have been very, very, you know, ready to go out of business given what weve seen in the economy right now if they didnt have these sorts of leverage ratios they do have in place due to the regulations. Mr. Buffett,a tremendous, tremendous investor over the last 60 years or so. He seems a bit confounded too. I think its interesting that the one group hes buying is the worst performing group in the entire market on an absolute and a relative basis. This may really speak to time frame. If youre a Warren Buffett type investor with a long time frame, it makes sense but if you have a oneyear time horizon maybe it makes no sense whatsoever. Mr. Buffett and i share the same birthday, the actual day. You know, agewise really. With that said, you want me to give some advice right when they reported on july 16th or so with 1990 its trading below book value. When this thing approaches 1. 8 times tangible book, thats when you get out of it. You can accumulate up to 1. 5 then scale out as you get to 1. 8. Shares of square rallying today. The move comes after the Pavement Company had a big increase in users of its cash app. Square is supposed to report tonight after the bell but released numbers early after bloomberg reported the results square gained nearly 8 on this day. Is this the best bet in the payment space. This is almost an embedded would you rather with an open rather on the second choice so what do you think its interesting because the open rather seems to have to be paypal but theyre both afflicted in the same way. Or do you go back to visa and mastercard which i think are also seeing tail winds from Contactless Payments the thing for square, they took a lot of market share between ppp loans going on with their cash app i think its been an enormous time for square. I think the valuation is really tough. Since about 110 i took a position and cut it by 80 im happy to still be long on the stock. I took a lot of exposure off 40 ago. My sense was it was very expensive then and i was playing with the houses money its a fascinating company i think everything thats good about square is why you wouldnt want to own bank of america. Therefore, i think you do want to own some square but i would be waiting for a pullback today. The big question is can it even come close to replicating that Going Forward if government stimulus is not quite the same as it had been during this past quarter in terms of getting reduced . That was a big reason why we had that boost, dan. Listen, the cash app well positioned they have been moving into investments and loans. You know, some of these Square Capital business was something that was really exciting until Small Businesses went into the tank it was that peer to peer now its going to be a pay with square cash will be the huge thing. Theyre taking a ton of share. Theyre wellpositioned. The problem that i see right now aside from the valuation is that exposure to Small Businesses right now it looks like in major city centers concentrating areas Small Businesses is not coming back there was an article in the New York Times that Something Like 30 of businesses in new york had closed already for good just in the last six months or so were going to see some tremendous damage there. Sales growing 3040 , you know, i dont know if thats stuff for the valuation it has right here. Coming up, weve got our eyes on shares of roku well break down the numbers plus, a match made in heaven my name is christine payne, im an associate here at amazon. Step onto the blue line, sir. This device is giving us an Accurate Temperature check. Youre good to go. I have to take care of my coworkers. Thats how i am. I have a son, and he said, one day im gonna be like you, im gonna help people. Youre good to go, maam. I hope so. This is my passion. If i can take of everyone who is sick out there, i would do it in a heartbeat. If i clookentertainmentour experience xfinity x1. Its the easiest way to watch live tv and all your favorite streaming apps. Plus, x1 also includes peacock premium at no extra cost. This baby is the total package. It streams exclusive originals, the full peacock movie library, complete collections of iconic tv shows, and more. Yup, the best really did get better. Magnificent. Xfinity x1 just got even better, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. We have a market flash in pfizer and Bristol Myers both of those shares are higher after hours as the company won a patent ruling on their blood thinner drug eliquis. Youre seeing bristol up almost 5 on this bristol does have the majority on this drug it brings in more than 7 billion a year pfizer up. 6 on this ruling now. Certainly in recent days there have been many other reasons for owning pfizer, namely the vaccine that could be coming to market. It hasnt been a great performer but i think pfizer is just too cheap as well Bristol Myers has been an underperformer in order for that to break out, i think it needs to close above 65 with this news were probably within a couple dollars of that. I think pfizer out of the two is probably the better book eli lilly has come off a little bit since its alltime high. The stock has been a monster i think eli lilly sets up the beth of t bestof the three. Breaking news out of washington, d. C. Stimulus talks have broken for this evening House Speaker nancy pelosi telling reporters shes confident there will be a light at the end of the tunnel she just doesnt know how long that tunnel is well, for its part the Trump Administration says that if the two sides still remain too far apart and dont reach a deal by friday, President Trump will be seeking executive action to protect renters against evictions and to reinstate that 600 unemployment boost to workers who have been laid off the chief of staff mark meadows just ma