Joe, you tell me first, whats going to be the determining factor this month for stocks i think were going to need to see some value. Were going to have to see energy and financials come around i know i am asking for a lot to see those sectors participate. To your comments at the top of the show about the month of august and the impact that it has, went back and studied the last ten years and in the last ten years, if you did go and purchase or enter the market at the low point in august, at the end of the year, in each instance, except 2018, you were rewarded for that. I would be concerned if we dont see a correction because thats the set up in 2018 we never got the august correction and we set ourselves up for a really bad fall id like to see a bit of a correction i would like to see financials and value and energy participate here i think thats going to be important but any type of correction, the history of the last decade tells you thats an opportunity to be a buyer thinking forward over the next three to six months. Steph, you agree with joe do we need to see value trade that works even if its financials, some of the other sectors or if big tech continues its run, is that enough to carry the load again big tech is 26 of the s p 500. Its the largest sector by far if you look at energy and financials and industries, that most is about s p 500. I think it will be Economic Data that drives this market, vaccine progress that will be very key. Youre also going to deal with macro just in general around the world. Today i was pretty encouraged that we got decent pmis around the world. We had an okay one i was also very ken urencouraged this started with warren buff feet three weeks ago and it was also uber with postmeates and nw today you had varian i think that is huge its the largest deal so far this year. That tells me that ceos are feeling confident. They wouns be putting money where their mounts is if they didnt see good values and opportunity. We get back to Economic Data mattering as to where the stock market goes. The market has been able to brush that off because of expected stimulus from washington and the big kahuna, the fed. Jobs is the real downer of the environment right now. Theres no question about it there are still some pockets of the economy that are doing well even in the face of bad job data i dont think fridays numbers will be good by any means. I am watching initial claims we talk about that last week ill look at the four week moving average to determine whether or not i push out my recovery mode. I do think Economic Data is important. We see an improvement in some of these other areas, i think that will help pick up the slack for the job disappointment megan, why are you under weight, stocks still for a lot of the reasons youre mentioning. The Economic Data is in question right now. We had a nice bounce off of the bottom in terms of labor market data, retail sales but at this point so much of it depends on congressional stimulus, which is still very much an open question and a lot of Realtime Data were looking at is pointing to a slowing or a plateauing of Economic Data and in some cases even a rolling over. We need to see Small Business, labor market, all of these things picking up. At some point youre arguing it has to matter and you think as we get further down the road into the calendar year and closer to 2021 youll have to start to see some results . Absolutely. We have to congressional stimulus package thats being debated now and it has been a huge lift for the low income consumers and a lot of what we have seen from whether its apple sales or autos as stephanie mentioned. A lot of that is depending on stimulus im uncomfortable with the market that is pricing it so much optimism and yet is reliant on policy at the underpinnings longer term i would say any correction you want to be thinking about adding but in the near term for the clients who have cash on the slide lines preaching patience and putting that new money the work. Does the market succomb to this notion theres too much their performance in july was outstanding. The pretrial conferen the performance from the lows have been outstanding. Becoming a bigger player in social media do we start worrying really about the concentration in tech . Only if we change it from a cap weighted index to a different form of index because quite frankly, that is where we are. We are those top five stocks are there because of the success theyve had from not being facetoface instead being remote operators, if you will. I dont see that changing, scott. I do see plenty and i think steph did a nice job of highlighting varian with siemens. Thats a huge deal the german economic numbers as well as u. S. Numbers today that implied that things are Getting Better when you say august and how is august going to be broadly for the market, apples had a pretty good couple augusts. Last year it was only like 2 or 3 but in 18 it was a 19 jump in august. When youre looking around at how stocks broadly perform in august, im sure youre data is spot on, scott as far as individual stocks, in particular, into a launch, for a company like apple that put up these phenomenal numbers, yes, because people were buying a lot more macs and Everything Else that apple sells because of the sdhou shutdown and Remote Working for their kids as well as themselves i think were going to get just phenomenal numbers from many of these tech stocks that continue to hit it and quite frankly, this microsoft tiktok deal, i think thats more defensive than anything else. I dont know thats a significant driver for microsoft. I think thats a defensive deal keeping it a way from a competitor i dont know what other competitor would be in the offing certainly not no one will let facebook not facebook. Right. Not facebook could google could amazon could some of the Media Companies decide they need to make a reach for Something Like this even disney, perhaps. Could some of those be interested i think thats a possibilities possible. Joe, i ask the question about this top heavy tech and the reaction its had for the performance of the market. I ask it because wall street is discussing it. Its led by the beneficiaries before the recovery and bull market continues are we going to get you mentioned the possibility of a correction and the big cap tech names are the ones that will lead that pull back . I think its growth i think its beyond those big Megacap Technology names its all the growth oriented names that investors seem to be gravitating towards. I would be looking to take advantage of it. They say we dont think tech is heading into bubble territory. We recommend those heavily invested in tech consider rebalancing, they mention as their top one, global stocks for the reasons mentioned on show. Select values, cyclicals and themes accelerated by covid19 we have seen money flying into the theme stocks but what about that idea . Rebalancing a little bit, rotating a little bit and trying to take advantage of some of these areas even if some are outside the u. S. I would agree with that 100 because we have had a nice run as you know, i sold facebook and trimming amazon and i regret trimmi inming amazon, not so muh facebook i still want exposure because we talked about the total addressable markets. They have all delivered such great numbers and on average revenues are up 30 . Earnings up 20 . Its not exactly like super extended yes on the charts but guess whats also happening, earnings are going up i think thats attractive. I want to have cyclical exposure and you know i do. We get past this lack of confidence, if you will. Were all worried. I think the market likes to play a game of worrying on all kinds of things but again, if you believe that growth is going to get better and next year and earnings are going to see a recovery then you want to own some economically sensitive stocks and that does include International Opportunities as well dont follow what the politicians say. Follow what the medical people say. You have dr. Gotley talking about the environment. Dr. Birx talking about new phase of the virus its not going away any time soon it might not. Were going to learn to adjust eventually florida will have to be Wearing Masks and maybe you do have partial closures watch initial claims maybe we have to push out the recovery but i think the recovery is coming when the recovery comes, thats when profits go higher thats what the market is telling you. Again, the market as a whole is not extremely expensive. Theres certain pockets that are but even the tech names arent that extreme that you want to take out all of your money in this particular area i think theres still opportunity. I think you have to be patient yes we could have set backs. Maybe that leads to joes 10 correction i dont know we are going to see a recovery we are going to get better profits. Do you think these tech names are too expensivexpensive . I hear that conversation now more than ever at what is mostly, except for amazon, 30 some odd times earnings . Are they too expensive i dont think valuation has mattered i think it matters in the current environment and i dont think it will marry going forward. I think what matters most is positioning and the concentration and overconcentration that investors have right now towards these Megacap Technology names steph said joes 10 correction. Thats mike wilsons 10 correction im saying pltheres a plausibility to it lets remember one thing and i really think its interesting. Yes, i agree with you. The virus can and probably will get worse. Guess whats there to support us the Federal Reserve and cleearly last week in the press conference, chairman jay powell signalled he is there to do more, if needed and as a speculator that gives you a certain degree of comfort surrounding what could be a very perilous situation related to the virus. You sold Dunkin Brands which we made a big deal about you sold it and you bought starbucks. Yeah. You gave me a heart time about starbucks last week and you were 100 right i should have that day, gotten out of Dunkin Brands and gone into starbucks because as im sitting here, i think theres a cyclical recovery not in the u. S. But outside of the u. S. I was late making that move but after listening to their earnings, made the move. In starbucks, out of dunkin. I got into some natural gas names. I bought cnx resources last wednesday. In the case of cnx, they just took out the remaining part of cnx midstream. The commentary from management is telling you its a disciplined environment focused on cash and the Balance Sheet and ultimately we are going to experience in 2021, a moment where supply is actually going to fall to meet demand for natural gas. Were beginning to see the early stages of that i think you have to be patient with the trade im introducing a trade we havent talked about in many, many years i think its one component of the equity market that has not recovered. Oil to a certain extent has tried to recover natural gas hasnt even tried to recover. Im stepping into these names on the belief that 2021 is going to be a very strong year for natural gas pricing. These names which are incredibly beaten down will benefit last point on eqt, they are higher for the year. I want to get into the internals of the market in a minute but i want to get to john y you bought adt this is on the google news yes, sir. Because adt, not p, this is the alarm company. Googles in this space theyre in it bigger now, obviously, with this 750 Million Investment its a 10 billion company right now. Adt is you got to think this is just a small bite for any of these folks and for any of the big five that were talking about and its a logical expansion for them does this become instead of a single digit stock, its obviously double digits today. Its been as high as 15 already, scott. Does this become a 20 stock on a take out or Something Like that maybe. You look at the 15 calls, 10,000 of those have traded today the 10 calls very active as well i wanted to own some stock, write some of those fat calls against it thinking that maybe this expands googles reach into our homes even more than they have been in their recent. This is where the action is were talking about google today, microsoft we already talked about apple. Our next guest is talking about all of them. Hes looking at the breadth of the market and what it may be telling you. Hes up with of the closest followed technicians on wall street jonathan, its good to have you back its interesting you put forts today that its conversation about lopsided breadth is a paradox for the market as these megacap names continue to become a more dominant part of the market cap indices, the less it actually matters. Were at a point now where apple itself is equivalent to the bottom 55 stocks in the nasdaq 100. You can have situations where the majority of the market is negative and as long as the stocks are up, the market cap indices will go higher it makes it less likely the market will roll over as long as the stocks we keep talking about continue to move higher. For how long though thats the question i was thinking of. I understand what youre saying but for how long that cant last forever, can it . We had this conversation every week there was the chance they would be a event and they did the opposite you talked earlier about the weak seasonal in august. The reason you have the weak seasonals is because of the set up we have now where a lot of names report in late july, early august we tend to see a run up into the earnings if they report good numbers, stocks can go up. To put that in perspective, the entire russell 2000 is about a tral tlars in market c trillion dollars in market cap if you see a sell off the money has to go in the market. I do think some of the laggards, some of your other guests talked about do still provide an opportunity. If we just talk about small caps in general, again they have gone nowhere for two weeks. They have go nowhere really for two years. Theres a lot of technology and high beta names in there appreciate it interest thoughts. Well talk to you again soon we have one dow component with disney. It will be interesting to hear how the reopen went with some of its asian parks. Wednesday we have roku that has outperformed by 17 this year. Well see whether the company saw any big changes especially as people stayed home and streamed content square reports on wednesday. That stock has more than doubled this year. Also hit another all time high today. Thursday, there is uber. Rider ship plummeted early on in the pandemic but the ceo said on our air that uber eats spikes when people stay at heome. The two sides act as hedges. Details on how both sides will be of interest to investors. Which ones are you watching most closely, steph . Definitely disney i dont own it but they are a bellwether for a lot of various different businesses i think the theme parks will be really collahallenged. Theyre talking about not getting back to 19 profitability levels until 2023. Theaters is a big problem. Berkshire will be very interesting. Hes going to tell us everything realtime about whats going on in the economy and i think he will have a lot of gloom and doom on some industries but maybe some bright spots in others jon, you have calls in roku and uber and i think i still have some square too, scott. Its going to be a big week. I know jim has been banging the table for this one and hoping to trade it well have to see. People arent betting on those exploding as much as they are betting on perhaps some out performance out of roku. How about you joe square. Its a classic example of a growth name that has clearly performed over the last eight weeks. I want to hear from management and see the earnings and understand if the acceleration in trends that have pulled forward because of covid19 is something that will not only be present with us here in this quarter but in future quarters im very interested in what we will hear next friday. Theres something about this environment and mr. Buffet as he operates in it that i really will enjoy hearing other comments the stock is up more than 100 year to date. You would think that raids tses bar awfully high yet fintech has had an incredible year. There was a headline earlier this morning that apple might be positioning itself to compete directly with square you can see thats clearly not affecting the stock. They purchased a company that will allow you to use your phone to pay someone else. Perhaps you wont need venmo or j square its been a great year for fin tech joe, youre not deterred by the stocks already had a huge move and youre looking for a correction that doesnt make sense to me. I said a correction is plausible. You asked me about mike wilson i said its plausible. Well talk about some of these stocks later in the show i will tell you that for many of them, they are seeing what is turning out to be a years of forward Revenue Growth that is being pulled into 2020 in matter of weeks and months and i dont think thats something that you could easily dismiss i think it will remain present with these companies and, yes, the valuations that you mentioned before which are astro no, ma nomical will grow even more. Thank you bullish calls coming up. Amd and qualcomm well tell you exactly what those are and what the trades are. You can watch or lisn teto us live on the go were back after this. Ready to shine from the inside out . Try natures bounty hair, skin and nails gummies. The number one brand to support silky hair, glowing skin, and healthy nails. Beauty comes naturally, only from natures bounty. Beauty comes naturally, you say the customers maklets talk data. S. Only Xfinity Mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. I accept. 5g, everybody is talking about it. How do i get it . Everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. Thats good. Next item, corner offices for everyone. We just have to make more corners in this building. Chad . Your wireless, your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Switch to Xfinity Mobile and save up to four hundred dollars a year on your wireless bill. Plus, get two hundred dollars off when you buy an eligible phone. Lets get to headlines now hello, everybody. Here is whats happening at this hour a Virginia Judge has lifted one injinx and issued another barring are removal of the robert e. Lee statue in richmond the move allows 90 days for a lawsuit brought by richmond Property Owners seeking to keep the monument where it is in colorado, four black girls were detained by police who mistakenly identified their vehicle as stolen. An eyewitness video shows the girls face down on the ground, at least two of them in handcuffs. The youngest girl is six years old. The Aurora Police department has apologized to the family former Pope Benedicts health as taken a turn for the worse. He has biographer told a german newspaper he suffers from shingles and is seriously ill. You are up to date scott, back to you we have, as i said, bullish calls today on two semi stocks bank of america has amd is the next 100 billion dollar. Steph, do you own amd . I do. I got a little lucky bought it before the quarter added after the quarter, too its even going to get better for them because intel is having a lot of struggles with getting the 7 nanometer out the door they just raised their growth rate from 25 to 35 this is the kind of stock i want seems defensible to me with their number one competitor going by the wayside in the short term i dont see amd on your list. I dont see qualcomm on your list i see calls in lam, in micron and taiwan semi. Youre rubbing it in, scott i wish i would have listened to both steve and myself and to steph and purchased qualcomm and jimmy levantahl he deserves credit on qualcomm he does 5g will be huge, scott yeah, ive traded in and out of some of the Tower Companies and things like that i dont have enough exposure to 5g i really wanted it i just got distracted, scott unfortunately, qualcomm, id love to have it. Same thing with amd. Im jealous of steph megan, your underweight u. S. Stocks, however you like the chips . We have a slight underweight to our benchmark do you. These big grower storks need to see theyre trading at these levels longer term, 5g will be a huge driver joe, do you not own any chip stocks nothing escapes you, does it . I thought i was going to get out of this conversation no. I sold the smh about 119 back in october or november when i look at the absence of holdings that i have in semis and understand i used to trade them so frequently in 18 and 19 and talk about them with pete and stooeeve wiess, its an awful performance by me to not have the exposure. They had a better sales growth story than nvidia. On the semiconvict side, teradyne steve has done a good job of talk about that one. It is what it is. Im curious. Wait a second you have every right to give me hard time on this one because its not as if were talking about a component of the market that i dont visit this is something in 2019 i talked about frequently. I talked about trading around the smh. All right youre horrible. What else do you want me to say . Its a terrible move come on, scott. Im not horrible. I do some good things. You do. If you want to continue to beat yourself up on live television, be my guest. On semis, i should. Absolutely if youre going to talk that much about it in 2019 and then when you get the performance and you dont own it, come on. All right no credibility in not accepting the embarrassment for that one understood. Thank you for that up next, the big etfs to watch today but first we show you the s p sector heat map. S p is up 25 a big programming note as well on wednesday, august 12th, join the cnbc Small Business playbook its all about providing Small Business owners with resources to survivor todays crisis and provide a path forward to thrive tomorrow go to cnbcvents. C cnbcvents. Com smallbusinessplay book come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. Were back lets get to frank with todays etf edge Consumer Discretionary is not far behind the sector was the s ps biggest gainer last month with the five largest etfs up pretty big many of these funds have huge positions in amazon which is also near records. Right now im joined by the head of research and strategy at global x and senior director of cfra your thoughts on consumer december cession nar and how to use etfs to invest going forward. This is one of the sectors thats been most up heaved by covid covid19 they havent been able to go out and go shopping at some of these traditional brick and Mortar Stores you see massive changes in consumer habits. People are shopping online for groceries and vehicles they have no longer buying suits and button down shirts they are buying athleisure wear because they work at home. Were very bullish on the sub sector of internet retail. Jay, you mentioned the e busy is one of your picks wayfair one of the top holdings there. Your take on these moves and the long term growth of Consumer Discretionary really in starts and stops. You really want to make sure you look inside the portfolio and make sure youre getting diversification. It significantly lagged behind it has equal weighting in those brands dwruked about the down side is it has roughly the same amount of exposure to under armour and carnival. You can focus the hold builders etf, the spider Home Builders etf is playing the Home Building companies as well as whirlpool you have to make sure you understand whats inside the portfolio. Thank you very much i think you mentioned the aba etf. Two stocks that depend on changing the way we buy things and the way we spend our money going forward. Thank you for joining us please dont go away our live show starts at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time. Well talk the top pandemic trades dont miss it. Scott, back over to you. We will not docusign is at an all time high. The stock is up 200 this year is there more up side from here . Our traders are ready to tackle ta question and more you still have time to reach us as well. rbacan tweet us wee ck in 30 seconds. Welcome back well answer your question do i sell boeing or wait for vaccine . You could put a lot of stocks in this category under that question what do you think about ba its a very good question this is a reopen stock for sure. Its also a cyclical stock very volatile. You have to believe the economy will see an improvement when ever that is is that later this year or next year i do the liquidity is fine in the meantime your next catalyst will be the 737 max in getting that recertified. I think thats coming in month, not weeks. I like it for the long term. Joe, rob wants to know about docusign what do you think, up side from here absolutely. This is one im proud of myself because i purchased this well below 100 and maintained the position think about the e signature world in the acceleration of these trends once youre able to migrate people over to esignatures theyre not going back to the previous way of paper signature. Very strong as it relates to health care. Very strong as it relates to government the street still doesnt believe where this stock is trading. The average price target is 173. They will report on the other side of labor day. I expect nothing short of another Strong Quarter i maintain my long position. For every smh, theres a docusign you beat yourself up and then praise yourself within five minutes of the program thats ha thwhat this is all abt then theres you to give me the pat on the back when i need it thats right. Up 200 year to date the pat on the back is coming right now. Joe, all right, up next, jon pete in new york city. No relation to your brother. Im a long time holder of oracle whats your opinion on it . Well, pete, i am a holder of oracle right now as well im in the 55 calls, short the 60s out in august and im long stock. This one has just languished there, scott when you look at the tech stocks that have really out performed this year. This one is just very nonvolatile. Even on the draw down it wasnt as extreme as some of the others but, im holding out hope. Obviously earnings way out there in september im in here and i would hold onto it, pete. Funny to hear you answer a question for pete. Megan, to you from jimmy in new york how should i structure my value portfolio if im only 15 years old . Thats awesome that youre watching us and sending us a question at just 15. Welcome. Were happy to have you. Yes, i totally agree. Its important to understand especially long Term Investment horizon, that value occurs along the a gradient with the deepest being the most levered Balance Sheets, the most tied to cyclical i can of the economy. Our part where we prefer to be is deep value. A little more toward a balanced value portfolio. What i think of more top shelf value. Not the junkiest of the junk some of those epicenter pandemic stocks or those with highest levered Balance Sheets but a little bit of a better Balance Sheet pro fill file as well as technology theres industrial and health care that might outgrow the value style over time because they are so tied to a lot of the technological advances were likely to see over the coming years. Coming up, we have even more trade on the half including jons latest on unusual activity basic tactivit activity were back in two minutes. [ engines revving ] its amazing to see them in the wild like th shhh. For those who were born to ride, theres progressive. What happens when puts its customers in charge . Well, the good news gets shared. And it gets rated 1 for customer satisfaction. But dont just take our word for it. Take theirs. Its your wireless. Your rules. Only with Xfinity Mobile. Call, click or visit a store today. It is time now for the futures outlook. Check out all of the major indices. In green kicks out the first trading day in august. The rally for today is being led by big tech. What else is new the nasdaq hitting a fresh record high. What else is new for more on the market news and how to treat it, lets bring in jim iuorio, and today youre looking at the broader market, the overall market i am, because those tough names represented the leadership and last week was a big, huge test for them and they seemed to have passed the test we got through erarnings and their still relatively strong. Heres the trend this is available in both the eminis and the micro futures. But 3280 was a spot to buy with a target of 3330 there is Something Else i found interesting, too the dollar has been collapsing, too, and thats helped everything dominating in dollars, particularly the stock market so when the dollar rallied today, i think mostly the stock market wants a weak dollar but occasionally they like to be reminded that that dollar weakness isnt out of control at all. So occasionally a little bit of an up move, i think, is good for it of course, there is the two remaining boring reasons of fed involvement tlaehats not going away and a government that continues spending im still a boring and relatively steadfast ball. Okay. The trend continuing m iuorio, thank you. Thank you final trade is straight ahead. Tara, did you know geico is now offering an extra 15 credit on car and motorcycle policies . Wow. Ok thats 15 on top of what geico could already save you. So what are you waiting for . Idina menzel to sing your own theme song . Tara, tara, look at her go with a fresh cup of joe. Gettin down to work early following her dreams into taxidermy oh, its. Tax attorney. I read that wrong, oh yeeaaaah geico. Save an extra 15 percent when you switch by october 7th. Give it up for tara when you switch yeah, everything is runningis smoothly with the now platform. bling see, incident resolved. How did you. Gotta enjoy the small wins. You keep being you, derek. Keep being you. Come on in, were open. All we do is hand you the bag. Simple. Done. We adapt and we change. You know, you just figure it out. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. Weve just been finding a way to keep on pushing. music anncr give customers access to precisely what they want, when they need it the most. With adyen, the payments platform that delivers convenience for all. Adyen. Business. Not boundaries. John, unusual activity for me what do you got . I got slack, scott. Woork, josh has talked about this one a lot today we see the 14th of august expiration, 30 strike calls, being bought almost with a ban d abandon, scott they bought it early and have kept at it throughout the session today, now its up over 30,000 contracts ill probably be in these about a week second trade, scott, stm micro saw a swissbased semiconductor play this one is all the way out in october, however theyre buying the october 30 calls in this one for about 1. 80 with the stock just under 30 a share, so both of these two stocks right around that level. Ill be in these probably about a month, scott good stuff. Megan, why dont you start us off with final trades today. Great we recently added a position to gold its had a phenomenal run, yes, but with yields, tenyear, at essentially half a percent, the opportunity for owning gold is very low and it offers an attractive optionalty optionale against a riskoff or other scenarios. How about your final trade for me you know in the bolin auto. Its really an economics play. Last quarter was fine, better than feared. They actually outgrew the market by a thousand basis points solid Balance Sheet. Joe, are you loving or hating yourself which one is it for your final trade . Scott, i know jim cramer hates the selfdepp ra indicati depracation. For him im doing pki, going strong going even higher on covid19 related growth good stuff. Jon ajerion, what do you have . Tiktok are doing great on stocks kelly evans and the exchange begins now thank you, scott. Heres whats ahead of us. Its microsoft to the rescue the Company Confirms its looking to buy tiktok, the wildly popular chineseowned app. It wants it done within six weeks. Will the government regret letting this tech giant get bigger plus, the nasdaq at record highs, this as we head into the middle of the year for stocks. Do you stay the course or get more offensive google