The session, sara. Come back after two down weeks. Coming up on the show, tech investor Roger Macnamee is with us and gold strengthens, the dollar weakens and home body stocks outperform well break down the trades and themes in a few minutes with David Rosenberg. Lets focus on the key stories mike santoli watching the bounce back rally meg tirrell as the president participates in a Coronavirus Briefing and the other big Market Driver this afternoon, the stimulus negotiations in washington new details expected this afternoon. First to you, mike yeah. Sara market really is a bounce in large tech stocks that is carrying the s p 500 to the high end of the recent range. Pretty well mixed market under the surface. Those big nasdaq themes carrying we spend most of the day, interestingly enough, almost exactly at those early june eyes we were looking at for a while not sure there is any particular reason we have to sit there. 3232 is that level basically that, is where this nasdaq rally has taken the s p 500. You look at that and say, the s p 500 is well absorbed a 4 to 5 pullback in the big Growth Stocks as a group which we saw over the last two weeks. The bounces in things like apple and amazon look a little cursory. Theyre not exactly showing huge buying interest. We were talking about the trends related to the weakening of the dollar very persistent trend there. This is month to date. This white line here is the u. S. Dollar index continuing to go lower and pretty much Everything Else priced in dollars is higher whether it is gold, the all country world index that is global equities, tlt is long term treasuries, of course crude oil as well. You cant say its the only thing going on but certainly the unifying factor in what is happening in all these asset markets. What is going to be interesting though is to see if we do finally get an oversold bounce in the dollar. It seems like a lot of people piled on to the bearish dollar boat and, therefore, see what happens to the other assets on the way specifically, gold which might be kind of the leader in this trend as a beneficiary of both negative Real Estate Interest rates as well thats weakening dollar this is from strategic over there. Looking at the trend as a very strong one in the long term for gold hes suggesting and others are suggesting as well if you look at how verbought it, is the price relative to the 200day moving average, the top 5 of extreme readings that we have seen throughout this history. This is off the charts almost in 2011 that was major topping goal. Other times, when you got to this area, its really just meant the flattening out and then going higher again. Similarly right here that actually was a top for a while. Be mindful of the positioning here when it come to the trending moves its not necessarily up, up and away just because everybody decided that its going in that direction. Sara oh, just you wait, mike santoli. Dollar index coming in the market zone. Im all over it at a two year low. Calls for more reporting there but first, just help us set up for this afternoon were going to get it kayl na ia second what is the market expectation what sort of details should we look for that could impact stocks behavior . It seems as if the market is assuming that there will be something of a meeting in the midding. In other wor middle. Well get details on the offering that there will be some further bridge at a reduced level what is interesting today is definitely more the shutdown portfolio working than the accelerated economy reopening up so that could show you there is a little bit of unhes aboease e fiscal side and whether there is sufficient support throughout the rest of the summer an beyond treasury yields very, very low still. That suggests that nobodys betting on an upside surprise in the very short term on the fiscal stimulus front. Yeah. Tech adding to the gains by the way in the first ten minutes or so of the hour 1. 6 now for the nasdaq. Thank you. Well see you shortly. One Company Moderna saying they have begun the final stage of covid19 testing. Meg has that story for us. The first participants in this phase three trial, first one of a covid19 vaccine in the United States have been dosed. This is the Moderna Vaccine partnered with the National Institutes of health they say expect the 30,000 participant trial could be enrolled in a month or two and then they expect they could see the data of initial safety by early october we talked about how well they expect to see this vaccine working. The fda threshold is 50 better than placebo we think there is a high probability it will be 75 or 80 higher, chance to get to 50 by the fda that is required for approval of course, safety is very important and the safety data is important. And then could we see a much higher positive . I think it is possible now they are not the only company approaching late stage clinical trials. Pfizer is expected to announce imminently it started that large phase three trial. Astrazeneca is expected to start in august. Johnson johnson started the phase one trial today and is expected to start phase three in september if all goes well another Company Expected to start in fall for phase three. And President Trump is touring a manufacturing plant in North Carolina from a company that is partnered with novavax to partner that vaccine well be on the lookout for any comments he makes from that trip back to you. Meg, clearly the market loves to dissect and react to any news on a vaccine and tends, perhaps, one could argue, to react too quickly and overreact at times what about the companies themselves if they in any way bent their typically very tough standards on when news should be released and how much spin should be applied to the releases . And which companies are sticking to the Gold Standard perhaps lowering it to the Silver Standard a little bit . Well, it really depends on which companies youre talking about. But, you know, there are some examples of smaller, more Speculative Companies that do capitalize on headlines and makes them misleading in order to boost the stock price the New York Times had an article about that over the weekend. But in terms of the frontrunners in the vaccine race, i would actually say the way that theyre releasing the data is more stringent than we typically see in the drug industry Drug Companies almost always press release details of their studies as soon as they have an idea of what the data are. Because they are material. And so thats what we saw moderna do with the original phase one data they were criticized though because the full data set was not available. And so what you saw pfizer do is wait until they had published at least in a preprint journal. So the full manuscript to put online and then you saw as stas tra citizen he cana wait to public just for context, generally Biotech Companies put out the top line data in a less release all the time and then publish in the journal. But its different during a pandemic, perhaps. Really good to know meg, thank you republicans set to unveil their Coronavirus Relief package this afternoon we have the latest on what it looks like and how it might change what have you learned . Sara, later today we expect the Senate Majority leader to unveil a sweep of legislative package thats are each spear head bid headed by a handful of committee chairs, the production of personal protective equipment and also the manufacturing supply chain but the market is focused on this Financial Relief package that republican senators have agreed upon in principle it includes a 1200 stimulus check for individuals, 105 billion in funding for schools with a preference for schools that open for in Person Learning and then a 200 a week expansion to Unemployment Insurance benefits at the state level. So that is a cut from 600 a week that was part of the c. A. R. E. S. Package that democrats backed it is a slight increase from where they were on that specific figure last week with discussions hovering around 100 a week level theyve come up slightly and the anticipation is that they would have to come up again to reach a bipartisan deal. Yesterday the treasury secretary said they have reached a complete agreement we should note with a grain of salt this is complete agreement among republicans and then discussion was have to begin after that with democrats. Sara and wilf . Well see what we get while we have you, another important developing story for markets. Sheltons fed nomination losing support. What kind of votes does she need and how up in the air is this . The nomination of judy shelton is definitely in hot water right now with two republican senators, senator Susan Collins of maine and senator m. I. T. Romney of utah both signalling that they would vote no on her nomination when it came to the full senate floor. She can only afford to lose two more votes before the nomination would sink there are indications from the senate that her nomination is in jeopardy you remember just a little over a year ago the nomination of herm an cai herman cain was sunk when four senators refused to back him weve seen this story before with regard to the white houses nominees to the fed. It appears with this erosion of support among republicans judy shelton could be next without some 11th hour change of minds yeah. New york Editorial Board not a fan. Judy shelton is very different than Herrmann Cain shes economist. She has a phd. I first met her at a heavy duty economics conference so she hangs out with, you know, hefty weights. Heavy weights with economics. The Gold Standard and neighbor flipflopping has questions about how politically motivated she will be. What are they so afraid of putting her on the fed and we should note, sara, one of the reasons why republicans did not confirm Herrmann Cain is charges in the past. For shelton, there are concerns about the Gold Standard. But there are also concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve at a time like this when mondetary policy and the direction and actions of that agency are so critically important to the direction of the economy. And given the way the president has talked about the Federal Reserve, they want to ensure that body will remain free from political intervention the she has had to answer questions in writing in multiple hearings on this specific effect members of the Senate Banking committee were swayed. She passed the committee by a single vote along a party line last week. But she will have to she will have to retain that support among republicans who seem to be defecting one by one thank you so much 48 minutes left of the session were up 1. 6 on the nasdaq. Up next, David Rosenberg has some stay at home trades for this market. Plus, well ask him about the rally in gold, silver and the dollars weakness. And then, tech valuations hitting a wall despite todays rally. That debate coming up. Youre watching closing bell. announcer reliability is everything. So, if your networks down, youre down. Verizon knows your customers need to reach you seamlessly. Your team needs to work from different places across many devices. Plus, you want the security trusted by some of the Largest Companies in the world. And thats why you trust us. The most Reliable Network in america. But inside. Theres advanced research, modeling and refinement. Constructing funds that dont simply follow an index. But explore new terrain. Helping you fill portfolio gaps. Connect to client goals. And strengthen confidence in you. Flexshares. Powered by over a century of investment expertise. Before investing consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Go to flexshares. Com for a prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Welcome back 45 minutes left of trade dow off session highs. Still up 72 points nasdaq leading gold is a huge story hitting record prices as worries over the coronavirus pandemic and u. S. China trade tensions weigh on investors silver at multiyear highs. The dollar at multiyear lows whats with that joining us by phone, David Rosenberg at rosenberg research. David, what does that signal to you . Well, i think that, you know, the gold and maybe the silver and really its the silvergold ratio reverting. So silver can bring some serious cash up. But thats really fairly obvious that its correlated with deepening negative Interest Rates. Its correlated with the weaker u. S. Dollar. And correlated with the fact that when you look year over year, you know, you have m1 growth running at 37 , sara. You have m2 at 24 . Weve taken out the growth rates of money supply in the 1970s that would have made the likes of arthur burns and miller blush. So a lot of this is just monetary creation. And gold and silver are great ahead of that environment. David, is it also predicting a recession which at times in the past gold rallies have done or in fact quite the open because of a opposite because of the stimulus will they be correlated with a Strong Economy well, thats a great question i would say that, you know, gold is actually done better since the reopenings, believe it or not, than it was during the depths of the despair in march and april. I think it really come down to the fact that precious metal complex, i say like almost other, every other asset class is responding to not just what the fed is doing but by what the fed says theyll continue to do. And so you know that at some point inflation will come back not immediately. When it does, the the fed is going to have yield control strategy n real terms, the negative Interest Rates go more negative thats the real ballast here for the rally in gold and silver Interest Rates are going more negative than they have during the postworld war ii period this is nil in that sort of environment. Thats what the trade has been even with the economy recovering, its recovering in part because of the expectation because the sfed going fed is ge more and more negative. Right so david, youve been giving investors some interesting tips about what themes to pursue and what basket of stocks look good in this permanent shift that were experiencing as a result of the pandemic. What i like about your list is not the obvious cloud plays or the amazon. Comes how are you thinking about which sectors benefit . And what are some that people may not be talking about you know, so what we did a couple months ago is i got tired of looking at all the 11 factors because not all of them made perfect sense. So we created a work at home segment of the market. A reopening segment of the market or a recovery segment of the market of hopes that the market and a payment part of the market what is really fascinating is for all the talk of the value trade which comes in dribs and drabs, what is lacking is the recovery and reopening stocks. Theyre lagging behind the vaccine hope and stay at home. It seems like a perfect hedge or stay at home stocks. And the vaccine Hope Assessment that we created in house the point im making here is what the world looks like when the crisis ends is true flynns guess. I would say with 100 clarity its going to look different than did it before and i do believe that there is going to be a shift in that working from home is going to be a much more dominant force not just now but in the future ive been saying all along and the valuations and Technology Get in the way you really want to focus on the sectors of the market that have strong balance sheets, obviously in this environment. But also ones that have utilityled characteristics. So you can argue as microsoft become a utility its been rated that way appropriately. Everyone talks about amazon. A lot of them are concentrated we know the stories and valuations the point ive been making is that in the future you dont just have to be in Consumer Staples or health care you want to model your portfolio. Of things we want, not just things with he need. Back to the big macro themes in particular, we have a fed meeting. We also have significant hopes in washington that a stimulus bill will get close to being done if either of those disappointed what the markets expectation is at the moment, which would have a bigger effect on the stock market i dont know what the big inspecttation is from the fed. I think that Everybody Knows from the guidance that powell has already shown his cards. He is going to be extremely aggressive and hell continue to be i dont see what the case is i mean there is no broad expectation for them to do a lot at this meeting. But we always know that we stand on guard to be extremely aggressive this powell fed will be extremely aggressive on the fiscal side, you know, the only thing we know is were going to get fiscal stimulus what boggles the mind in this environment of incredible uncertainty and with election around the corner is the Senate Version is so significantly below what the house has already passed way know the president will go for the gusto. I would say that probably not the time to go that light. You go to a trillion dollars, say, on fiscal stimulus at the margin i