O odssey capital we see stocks higher into a pivotal week for your money. I said one third of the s p reports. You have the big tech hearing on the hill you have a fed meeting you have stimulus negotiations whats on the line i think anything to go wrong with the next trillion, that would be a huge problem. Thats so done deal. Hopefully most of us hope it will be more focused effort. We dont money into zombie companies. We decide on what sectors will survive and try to support those. I think the earnings will be pretty good. Anything to do with consumer is still buoyant and will be intact tech remains the favorite of investors. It continues the grow and allow the economy to function and continues to digitize not just here but globally. Doints see a lot of downside going into numbers i dont expect any intel surprises nap was bad management im hoping the whacking stick will be coming out there when it gets back below 50 bucks, its buying opportunities. Those are the kind of surprises you dont know until you get them more tech and more tech. It leads me to jason. Youre a growth investor its good to have you on the show im wondering how you size up whats at stake especially given the fact the market was weak last week coming into what was so important now earnings were great they were solid last week. It was a Major Holding for us. What we saw was the report was shown and the only shortfall was their guidance the numbers are really good and some buy in the terms of negative volume in the stock i think we will likely see more in the tech names this week. Jenny, jason brings up a good point. The stock has had a great run. It goes into the number. It has a good Earnings Report. Maybe not good enough for some given the run it had into the number so the stock sells off. Im woerndsing if you think we could face a similar scenario this time given all that is at stake. It would be larger than that amazon is 27 over the last three months facebook is 23 alphabet is 20 these stocks have run an awful lot into these Earnings Reports. I think whats at stake is hopes and dreams that brings up your point, which is, microsoft has great numbers but the expectations were for it be so much more amazing. I think it will be an exciting and interesting week where theres going to be a handful of companies where expectations are way too high and the hopes and dreams will probably get ratcheted down i dont think that means an intel like report where were going to see a lot of down 16 percents but probably some disappointment theres a lot of companies out there like 400 companies out there, probably, where the expectations are for diddly. As those companies are allowed to come out and report, make the expectations are so low than even an okay quarter, not a disappointment is received very favorably by the market. I think it might be exciting and kind of amazing week but i think net net it could be a week of consolidation. Joe, what about that in consolidation. Are you nervous, joe were looking at the earnings calendar i know were so heavily focused on thursday. Facebook moves its Earnings Report from wednesday to thursday because of the big tech hearing taking place midweek are you nervous coming into this week with everything that seems to be at stake generally by nature im not nervous. We would have to go 0 for 3 in earnings there would be a concern for the marketplace. I think you would get a bit of that correction. If not technology, then where. Where am i supposed to put my money if imnot going to be in technology now were coming into the time of year where we were allocating towards the back to school theory or the retail theory. Thats not going to happen at this point in the year those tuptss will not be in the United States. They will be outside the United States the u. S. Dollar is telling you, specifically, thats where the economic recoveries happening. What do you mean 0 for 3 . We have to go 0 for 3. Its simple on thursday we have to go 0 for 3 earnings we would have to have three lousy Earnings Reports and in each case you see negative pricing. Thats 0 for 3 i mean, youre telling me that you think if lets just say if apple and if their four big reports on thursday. Its facebook, alphabet, amazon and apple. Thats why you said 0 for 3. We have four big reports im not factoring facebook in there. I dont think facebook is releva relevant i think facebook relative to the other three are different. Lets not dispute that say if apple is a disappointment or just amazon, the market just brushes that off and says the other two or three was good so who cares about this one . I really do i believe thats enough. Microsoft, modest at best. Netflix, modest at best disappointment in terms of price action you would have to see all three clearly struggle if you get one or two of them that perform well, i think the theory around these Technology Companies, the Megacap Technology companies, these Growth Companies which is what they really are, they offer you the best strategy in what is clearly evolving into a defensive environment. I think thats the permeating thing. If were about to come into a defensive environment, do you think tech is at the Tipping Point given the run we had and a bit of shakiness over the last week or so if indeed we had like, joe says, one, two or even three of those stocks miss, yeah, that would be a Tipping Point i agree with him on that i dont know that we have to go 0 for 3. I think any one of those, if it was bad enough, like last week you and i talked about microsoft, that wasnt bad i realize it dropped from 211 to 198 or whatever during that profit taking session. It goes right back up over 200 here it is one of the trillion dollar clubs that just keeps doing things right i think if tech missed in a big way, that would be a big deal. Right now, scott, as far as defensive plays, these are some mind blowing numbers silver, slv, for the year, im looking at it now. 35 for the year the gld up 23 not the gld. The gdx, the miners. The miners are up 23 gold t itself, which is out performing like crazy isnt out performers the miners. Its up less than 10 . When youre looking at where are people chasing in with some safety plays, if you will, because of the trillions of dollars that were putting out there, because of what europe just passed last week with their both Grant Program as well as their stimulus that they are talking about, i think thats why youre seeing silver and gold just zoom and those miners whether its full miners or junior miners are also zooming right along with it. In fact, out performing in a pretty big way jason, what do you make of the fact as the stocks continue to rise and the expectations to continue they continue to go right along with that. Price targets just keep going up today im looking at amazon, 3600 from a couple of firms. 3500 from another firm alphabetgets bumped today. What do you make of that in. I think theres some momentum fatigue. I feel the numbers are very strong and the only blemish might been on the record which is the shortfall i do think theres a bit of fatigue out there. We saw a bit of a draw down next week i think all these will continue to move higher if its amazon or apple or a big name, which one do you think would bring the market down if it disappointed . Joe said the market can with stand one of these names disappointing. Do you agree with that di do i dont anticipate any disappointments on these engi s engines, including facebook. Even though its getting bashed from every angle, its totally irrelevant to the i venvestment thesis i look at my tear sheets each week 80 of our advertising dollars are now on facebook or insta we dont care if a Burger Company doesnt want to advertise on it. Its ir relevant thats 10 of their book if they want eyeballs, theyll have the go back if i see any slow down there, that would tell me theres exhaustion coming in Small Business thats pivoting to the digital side of things which i see none of. Theres the haves and have notes. 20 sorry go ahead maybe i should have used a different word maybe disappointment is not the right word the use given the fact that microsoft didnt disappointment and the stock still went down, but where expectations are, what happens if the earnings just dont meet the expectation . We dont have to say they will disappointment they can still beat numbers. The outlooks could be decent but what if theyre not good enough given how the stocks have run. The market is not going to just brush that off. Thats whats working, not just moment ive got enough focus. 20 is going to fail its going to fail they going to zero all that stuff, beginning to zero i dont want to support them anymore. I dont think the government should either. Let those guys die they have to die the consumer is moving into a different direction. Amazon is a must have for my Small Business that trend remains in tact whats different is i now know who the losers are antd the market does too. I know why the stocks have gone up. Everybody knows. Theres nothing new in the story which says how much better could amazon or whoever else in the big five, how much better could it really get which makes the stocks at risk, doesnt it, on thursday night i know that youre baiting me into this. Well, i do that yes, you would. If you told me every company on earth is either already using amazon web sfervices, azur or google cloud then i would say where is the growth. Thats where the rubber meets the road we both know thats not the case theres a lot of companies that are getting on board right now, today. A lot of that demand for cloud services, software, security all of that plays right into the hands of google, amazon, microsoft. Those are the big ones the apple cloud is all of these device equiconnected and pumpin stuff up to the cloud. I get it. I cant get anybody to bite this youre not getting me to bite ill bite how much better can it get for amazon can they really tell us something from this thursday night that will give you the kind of appreciation on the stock price that we already witnessed . At some point doesnt there have to be consolidation somewhere. Maybe im the only crazy one i think there does. I think there does i think youre spot on i think theres a difference between how much better can it get from amazon in terms of selling and bringing on clients and the share price. I think it is unlikely that they continue at the pace they have been at. There could be real regulation coming in. Competition comes in some how. People are saying theres no competition. Walmart is going to take over everything there will be competition and may be regulation. Theres no reason the companies cant continue to succeed and do well their valuations are at levels where people seem to expect another 40 . Thats kind of my point youreswimming against the tide thats the problem when you make a comment. Im used to it. The question is and our next guest is trying to answer this whether investors are delusional no matter what, the stock market just keeps going up. You have a more positive take on the virus than is truly the story on the ground. I dont know maybe ed knows i dont know that they are delusional yet but if this market keeps going higher, id have to concludes perhaps thats exactly whats happening there are some early fundamentals we know about the virus still spreading. We know theres a cold war been developing between the United States and china for a while it seems to be getting worse we know the v shaped recovery we had in may and june is already stalling in july because some of the governors are backing off on lifting restrictions are going back and putting some restrictions on. The negatives are out there. A billion here, a trillion as of some real serious money and you have to say that if theres a delusion out there, its kind of like the fed keeps filling up that punch bowl with spiked liquidity neighbor nothing else matters. You list the possible risk to the market and then say all these considerations are all the more reason for investors to come to their senses and lot stock prices consolidate their gains while waiting for more evidence of a sustainable recovery i rest my case. You do think that investors, were ahead of ourselves relative to what the news is i do. I said i thought the market could get up to 2900 which was a pretty aggressive target prices have gone up at the same time that earnings expectations have gone down theyve only recently started to level out. I think the market needs to consolidate and give some time for the fundamentals to show that the recovery is still there. Its not stalling. Were not going to get a w when its not a billion here, a trillion there are, were spending billions of dollars on vaccines that may well be what saves the day for the market, for the economy, for our businesses, for our workers. We are seeing people spit out some of their profits from some of these tech names into gold and silver and they are looking for alternatives kevin do you agree with ed or not . He said were ahead of ourselves. You dont seem to think so the one thing, i agree with ed in in things but the one thing he didnt mention that i want to point out to, i can no longer use the anchor that yiezed for decades, government bonds for any kind of return its useless to me now now when the money comes in and man dates that were 50 fixed income and equities, a triple b gets me 3 50 from the finish line i have to go to stocks i have no other option exception gold, which i own. How much gold can i own. We have very little to work with as Institutional Investors, as sovereign funds, anybody running mandates when we have taken away the one thing we had for years Capital Gains and government bonds. Am i going to put money to work for 30 years not a chance i rest my case, your honor to nec week lit be the same thing. Ill be buying more facebook, more apple, more micro soft. That is our economy. The that mentality inflating a bubble in those high growth megacap tech names, for example . Im reminded of that great song by prince party like its 1999. He wrote that song in 1982 he was probably one of the greatest investment strategists of all time. He really anticipated we would have a party in 1999 we did the nasdaq was up 200 were only about up 50 of the nasdaq so far. To the extent that kevin is absolutely right, investors dont want to be in bonds. Everybody is going from whatever their bogeye was they dont want so much in bonds anymore. That is driving people into stocks once you get to 25 to 30 of the market cap of the s p 500, depending which ones you want to add in, historically thats nosebleed territory. Do we need to worry about getting a nosebleed we cant contain for a bit . I agree with a lot of the points made earlier. We see the rate zero big tech has been a major benefact benefactor joe, ed makes some good points theres pause, not a peak coming for technology. Clearly Precious Metals are receiving a lot of the inflows youre seeing the inflows from government bonds i guess what i would question, scott, and ask ed if i think about what might hedge against inflation, it might be historically where can i find a defensive posture, accept these Technology Companies that are so wash rich and different than in 1999 its a really important point. I think we need to be aware there are some issues. Jenny mentioned potential for regime change in november. If we get a very left leaning, democratic sweep of the government, i think there could be some regulation to take some of these Big Companies apart that also falters in that kind of scenario. We have seen in president trump, attack drug pricing. You make a good point. Maybe thats why were seeing gold and silver. Everybody is making good points. Kevin a point you cant put that much into gold maybe Institutional Investors can but individuals can do it. Its kind of a Twilight Zone market here. It seems to drive everybody into the same i venvestment concept. I think im starting to watch the dollar very carefully. I have been. Its been weaker thats a signal that maybe it is time to look for opportunities overseas well do our futures outlook talking about the dollar later ed, we appreciate the time jenny, before we go to break, i wanted to do a segment calling one big buy. Thats your new buy of disney. We have a couple of minutes to kick this around lets do it. Last week we added disney which was a big deal for us. We owned this in the path. Held it for three or four years. T been on our radar screen for a long time. Last week was interesting. After we saw netflix earnings, we thuought those subscribers have to be going somewhere we think disney plus is doing really good. We think over the next few years those could grow to more like 10 share and that will be in no small part driven by their streaming services and as we get back to a post vaccine world, all the investment that went into the theme parks before this started, we they will come roaring back it was a big deal. Were really excited to add it im not sure if our timing is perfect. Thats our disney call i want to get kevins take. Jenny coming to the tank you heard this pitch for disney. You say what did knee is a stock you want to own the day they announce the vaccine successful and not until then before the vaccine is announced, im going to buy it there. Theres no reason to own this name until theres a solution to their number one problem people with their kids in parks. The rest of it is going to be held back by the fact they have put so much capex into these parks all around the world youve got to open them up the way they were. All the openings and closings will keep this stock governed. 97 buy it there and go long waiting but the day they say, which ever company, whether its pfizer or somebody else says this vaccines work and two years later everybody will be vaccinated, bingo disney, boeing all right well keep the conversation going. Well take a quick break more trader moves are ahead. Well debate them nec. Were back in two minutes. Introducing stocks by the slice from fidelity. Now you can trade stocks and etfs for any amount you choose instead of buying by the share. All with no commissions. Stocks by the slice from fidelity. Get your slice today. Welcome back here is your cnbc news update. Arizona reporting no new deaths from covid19 today. The state lowered its overall total by one due to a double counting arizonas confirmed cases rose by 1800. The smallest daily increase s