Vaccine. If you want to understand this market, including today, the dow tumbled 354 points s p lost 1. 23 and the nasdaq plunged 2. 29 with many bigcap tech stocks taking it on the chin. You have to recognize things will never be the same in this country or around the world until we get a vaccine the pandemic, not the fed they know nothing not the election is the most important driver of the stock prices thats right we get a vaccine sooner than expected, we save the economy. But if the process drags on and we dont have any stimulus, were going the need to adjust to the slow to no growth huddle at home normal therefore, our fate is in the hands oh of a few dozen companies. Whoever get there is first is going to make a lot of money thats why we decided to do something new. We surveyed 92 drug analysts, the best we could find, state and local level, to handicap the chances of each of the main players. We dont bet on at least we dont like to bet on lifethreatening situations. This is a terrible disease but, and this is an important but, we are asked over and over again who is in the lead these are lives, not horses. But this does per se resemble handicapping, because we are judging vaccines and stocks. Thats our business. So coming in first what if support of 21 respondents, its the Oxford University vaccine we just read about. Second was a tie with moderna and pfizer they both got 19 votes the third is casino bio. After that is johnson and johnson, novavax, with seven and the honor of being the Company Least likely to bring its vaccine candidate to market. They voted inovio off the island what about covid treatments . Gilead owns remdesivir, which has been effective in cutting short hospital stays, follows by rejeneron. Ely lily in fourth, roche and glaxosmithkli glaxosmithkline. You better pray one of these injections works, because thats the only way we beat the virus for good and this grim reaper fl eer flu going to make a i have uviciousk in the fall. Many of the doctors i deal with are very concerned about the fall and the race for a vaccine might have more than one winner. It would be like the flu, where theres a new vaccine every year with that in mind, how do we take advantage of this poll . Again, the only one that ive seen, maybe thats in bad taste, but my job is to help try to satisfy your needs to make money. Its what you want so how do we figure out whats going to happen in this race for the vaccine . What i find most interesting is that the stage of testing doesnt matter much at all novovax got a 1. 6 billion commitment from the government to complete their scaleup manufacturing. They start phase three trials in the fourth quarter, but theyre tied with johnson and johnson and havent started human testing. I think the excitement about this makes sense i know many people that want into that trip because the initial results were so promising in the smaller group, even though the stock has been crushed why do people sell the news . I think the expectations got out of control they got something very positive and still within the bounds of reason the thing about vaccines opposed to cures is the fda that never just stop the trials and declare a winner, which xhim sometimes regular drugs. Testing a vaccine takes time because you have to give it to thousands of people and see if they get sick. Even though we cant speak it up, i like astrozenecas stock here i used to be a huge fan of moderna, because they have an exciting a. I. Approach to data then they revealed some positive news on covid as the execs dumped the stock i can tell you, they should have been canceled going into what was going to be a period of higtsenned scrutiny. Yes, moderna has been too quick to praise its own work off a small sample size, because they never really produced a vaccine before i did love the stock in the 20s and 30s, 40s and even 50s. But at 75, oh, and the survey was taken before the company lost an important patent contest. The patent decision could cut into the companys profits if it succeeds i say no thank you pfizers partner, and they have been remarkably nonpromotional about the relevant success pfizer has a portfolio of decent albeit boring drugs. So if their vaccine doesnt win, they can make some exciting acquisitions i cant say much about this company, its chinese. The only chinese stock i recommend is ali baba. Jny, novavax and the sanofi glaxo teamup. Novavax is ultrahigh risk, high reward its a long shot that is trading like it won. Why . Because it got a 1. 6 billion commitment in the president s operation warp speed initiative. Well, its disconcerting that people think that they are in the poll position. Johnson and johnson, hearing nothing but good things about their trial. More importantly, aside from covid, they are the best pipeline for these drug companies. I think its a buy right here. Theres not much to say about the others i like regeneron for its noncovid drugs. And nvovio, the handicappers say sell the bottom line, if you want to make an informed wager or at least invest on the vaccine stocks, astrozeneca is the most promising, but jnj is the best stock because it has so much else going if it turns out to be a loser in the covid19 race for a sure, or at least immunity mark in florida, mark. Caller hi, jim a pleasure to speak with you on baseballs opening day yes, indeed something seems normal at last and i hike the guy who is throwing out that first pitch for the nationals. Hes got an arm that fauci, who did he play before this . Whats up . Caller i have a question about dominos i know its a company you like i bought it six days ago and if the four days the market has been open since then, its dropped 16 points. I thought maybe because its considered a stay at home stock and the country was expecting a vaccine. But the package food stocks all have done well where do you think its going to go from here dominos ran up in the quarter. It was an xe seexcellent quarte. I think that it is just a very, very good stock and a very good company. And i would own it right here. Lets go to zena in massachusetts. Caller jim, booyah. Booyah caller jim, i bought this at 30, and i didnt expect it to go all the way to 55 so fast. I love the product, i leave in the company. But the jury is still out on whether or not stay at home is here for the longterm should i keep pushing the pedal and buy more, or no, no. I want you to cut the position in half tomorrow morning just say you know somewhat im going to play with the houses money. Ive been doing a lot of work on gym openings its going to be very hard peloton is going to be in business for a long time bulls make money, bears make money, and hogs. Jim in florida, jim. Caller jim, thank you for taking my call of course whats going on . Caller my question is on a rei reit that yields 37 , and has a pe under 9 the symbol is geo. I like that music is that geos theme music . You dont want to touch geo. That yield i think is unsustainable and youre playing with fire. And ive got to tell you, when you see yields over 7 in this market, youve got to start thinking thats not sustainable. All right. Things will not be the same until we get a vaccine as much as i want everyone to wear a mask, its a vaccine. If you want to invest in the vaccine stocks, astro oh zenec is the most promising. But jny is the best, because if the vak seen doesnt succeed, you may not lose money on mad money tonight, enseeno soaring 195 but is it worth it or did you miss the move . And then im breaking down tesla and microsoft. And im talking with the ceo of turning lemons into lemonade stay with cramer announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc miss something head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Two weeks ago, cnbc rolled experience the joy of a bigger world in a highlyconnected lexus vehicle at the golden opportunity sales event. Lease the 2020 es 350 for 359 a month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Expewelcome to camp tonsafun on xfinity its summer camp, but in your living room. Learn how to draw with a minions expert. How to build an indoor Obstacle Course plus. Whatever shes doing. And me, jade cattapreta. The host of es the soup camp tonsafun. Its like summer camp, but minus the poison ivy. Unless you own poison ivy. In which case, why . Just say summer camp into your xfinity voice remote to join. Maybe the bar has finally gotten too high. Last night, two amazing companies, tesla and microsoft, reported seller quarter. Yet their stocking got slammed today. Microsoft was hit from the getgo tesla rallied huge, up about 100 points then it just got hammered. Closing down 79 is that what net fflix was tellg us when it sold off . How about apple in their rarepot next week . I predict pain the house of pain all these big tech stocks trade together when you kick off mcearning season, it doesnt bode they will netflix was different. The ceo lowered the boom on us with a discouraging forecast tesla put up good numb ers sensational. We heard there was some hair on azure, and somebody else complained about the strength of the windows forecast years ago, i got to go on an Aircraft Carrier called the uss harry s. Truman. It was one of the most thrilling things ive ever done. I found myself to an officer who guided planes to land on the tarmac when a pilot is landing on a carrier, they have one goal, slow the plane down enough before it goes off the edge. Periodically, the man would say, youre coming in too hot didnt mean there was anything wrong with the pilot or plane, it was just going too fast thats how i feel about these Tech Companies theyre all coming in too hot. Will they come in too hot or pull up and live to play again i am betting apple will be fine. Facebook, the long knives are always out for Mark Zuckerberg and the bar for amazon is the highest its ever been they play for the long haul. All of them are coming in too hot, especially with the antitrust hearings next week. So what do you do . If you want to own these stocks, you have to be willing to take some pain. Youll have to watch the rest of the market catch up to them while they decline in value. But at some point theyll make a comeback maybe youre nimble enough to get back in at a lower level thats what i have tried to do with my hedge fund most people are not that nimble. If youre not a longterm investor, it makes no sense to do anything other than ride it out. You should listen to the Conference Calls the stocks just got too hot for the moment the fundamentals had nothing to do with the selloff. Unfortunately they had nothing to do with the last 10, 15 Percentage Points of upside, which is why their nesam are so vulnerable stick with cramer. Over the last couple of months, this market has been flooded with new ipos. Sell sell sell sell sell. And some of these stocks are soming in so hot, that theyre impossible to ignore take encino. They make Cloud Based Software for banks. They rose to 71 before closing at 91 on the first day of trading. This thing, it tripled in less than 24 hours. Thats the biggest firstday move since the Chinese Company in 15 years. Since then, theyve started coming off its pulled back to 71 and change as of today. But still way up from the ipo price. So i think its worth asking whether this stock deserves the hype on the one hand it makes sense that people lap this up. Cloudbased software and Financial Technology its a marriage made in heaven on the other hand, the stock is very, very expensive this morning, expensive cloud plays arent cheap to begin with before we get into the pros and cons, their key product for ncno Bank Operating system helps financials digitize, automate and streamline complex processes, with the help of Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence the banks tend to not be able to do this themselves think loan originization, regulatory compliance. And they know what banks need from their software. The company was founded in a bank thats right, a bank in North Carolina did it. They realized they had a solution for the entire industry so they spun off the company in 2011 some say its indispensable. This is a good time to be in the thin tech business thats why Financial Institutions spend more money on tech than any other industry did you know that . And because the banks were relative late comers to the cloud, this transition is still in the early innings, maybe first inning and thats where ncino comes in. They help banks go fully digital and enables employees to work remotely can that really justify the incredible move of the stock out of the gate . The last fiscal year, they have 51 Revenue Growth that only slowed to 49. 9 in the most recent quarter. Plus, the company increasingly is making its money from lucrative Software People love Subscription Software they are not yet profitable, because they need to spend to grow like a weed but the margins are headed in the right direction. Thats solid and there are operating margins. So where do i come down on this . I get the appeal what could be better than a cloudbased Financial Technology play in this environment with a subscription kicker . The cloud stocks have been some of the best performers in the cramer covid19 index. I like the rapid growth and the 50 growth rate seems stable normally companies with ultrafast growth start slowing a lot of people accused microsoft of having that with azure last night but they have been hanging in there 50 margins for years. Maybe best of all, the business wont be going away. Yes, it a es the stickiness im talking about. Thats the whole point of the Business Model but theyre extra sticky when a bank brings in their software, thats as Mission Critical as it gets. Switching to competitive would be very expensive and something could go wrong we know that because it takes them 6 to 18 months to land a new client last year, the client had 146 subscription revenue retention, meaning the customers stuck with him, but spent 50 more on their services than years before this is just common sense. They run the banks operating system which banks . Bank of america, which is very tech savvy barclays, tv bank and key bank, among many others. Given that bank of america is the best digital presence in the industry, thats a strong endorseme endorsement. And they run on salesforce. Coms platform i trust theirjudgment on early Stage Software given they pretty much invented the industry now, these are all positives what about the negatives i dont love that theyre unprofitable and they have negative operating cash flow, not great my biggest concern, okay, like most of the attractive ipos in the last couple of months, the stock is insanely expensive. It did only 138 million in sales this year, so theyre trading up 47 times not earnings but sales. If a company can keep growing at 50 clip, it will work out to be 31 times sale, which is a nose bleed. You look at the 50 Cloud Software stocks we keep track of, only four of them are more expensive than ncino and listen to this, zoom video, you know thats been fantastic datadog, everybody wanted to buy that company livongo, weve had them on multiple times and is maybe a life coach for many dangerous illnesses. On these years numbers, its the same as crowd strike, fastly, Livongo Health that is about as rarified as you get. Crowd strike and livongo are close to profitability the thing is, they are covid plays. Opta is a super cybersecurity play, and we had them on last week, theyre doing terrific i dont feel comfortable paying that much. It feels like chasing. If you valued ncino at 20 times sale sales, it would be a 68 stock i cant give you my blessing to buy this one until it falls below 68. And ideally closer to mid 40s. If youre patient, i think youll get the chance. This was a sliver deal, meaning theyll only sold a little stock in the ipo ncino is a terrific combination, but we have to be disciplined here, which means waiting for this ipo to come down before you pull the trigger daniel in new york, daniel caller jim, yesterday on squawk on the street, you and david brought up the tenyear trip, up over 700 so i thought of vooiva systems, over 650 in five years, over 80 yeartodate 1. 3 billion in free cash and no debt so do i have time to start a position in this i know that peter has been on the show a bunch of times and hes terrific. You have my blessing remember, these stocks are coming under pressure. 10 and then leg the way down. We have a tough week for these stocks coming up daniel in california, daniel caller booyah, jimmy chills booyah, my friend. Whats up . Caller long time viewer here, firsttime caller. I just want to say i love your Mask Initiative and thanks for your tesla call. Youre the first person to acknowledge i liked it at 270. People say he came in too late 270 is too late . Go ahead, what do you got . Caller after investing in a few ipos, i wanted to add to one of my positions after reading an article about there was multiple banks that started coverage on it this tuesday. It only had one buy rating now it has 15 buy ratings, two hold rate ls aings and a consensus pu 25 . And with the virus surging, walmart, kroger and the other big players are so expensive to get into, so my question, what do you think about aci i think albertsons is a good slow grower. I like it very much and i think you can go to 18, 19 i dont bet it goes much further than that. I understand the type surrounding ncino. It is terrific but i understand discipline. So wait for it to come down a little understand these stocks are under assault here much more mad money, including my sit down with the ceo of lemonade can the company use more out of this company and all your calls on rapid fire in tonights edition of the lightning round. So stay with cramer. This summer weve had a major ipo heat wave. It started with lemonade the compan revolutionizing the Insurance Industry they shot from 29 to 69 on the first day of trading they are a disrupter, to make the once agonizing process of buying insurance painless. They do renters, homeowners and pet insurance. Last week i told you this was a phenomenal story but i think you should wait for a pullback i worry about valua