Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712 : compare

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20240712

Forth with portnoy on what you say are amazing insane moves that can continue. Yeah, i mean, understand there is florida has been so much comparison in 1999, 1999 was never like this. You had a lot of crumby companies that would go up a lot but nothing like this. I mean, we have major trillion Dollar Companies that are going up at a pace that weve obviously never seen because we didnt have trillion Dollar Companies before but i do think that my friend David Portnoy hes got a big cohort saying that stocks only go up and im just giving this is frightening im giving a little bit of homage here because, yes, if you got in when davie trade got in, i mean, all youve seen is up. So its not wrong for him to look at that i mean, the guy got in i think march 23rd when he decided to take the suits on directly i got up this morning, i said, geez, maybe i should wear jeans. I dont want to be like wrong. I want to be i dont want to be on the other side of the trade of this guy. His timing is exceptional. Now, hes not a guru, he is not a Joe Grandville not some of the big companies, big mock unbelievable gurus that came on, but it is just time to admit that these moves are crazy now, that doesnt mean crazy crazy may be the last thing you have before something is a great idea, but when you look at these charts you are reminded that these are not 2 stocks going to 4 and thats what i was thinking. Right jim, some viewers make the point that 99 wasnt just pets. Com, it was dell and cisco and intel and emc and nokia, i mean, it wasnt they werent all money losing babies on the web no, but those companies you just named those were all companies that were going to blow things out because of the dotcomes. Inn tell was people thought that there would be an early run for what turned out to be data centers. If anyone remembers the run in cisco, cisco was the backbone of the internet but i have a run of the companies that became multibillion Dollar Companies during that period and a lot of them do not exist and some of them finally got back to where they were but i just think this is animal spirits like ive never seen and those gains that we had with cisco and intel are nothing like this. I think that maybe index money, 60 of the money is indexed in this market, they are not sellers, the insiders are not sellers, the etf buyers are insane, they come in, they blitz stocks and you get people hong that stocks only go up and they attract a lot more money, david. Yes, they do. Listen, your point is well taken, jim we all remember that period having reported on it, you know, every single hour of every day, it was so frantic for years and there were plenty of companies that did not have a Business Model of in i kind other than the word internet in it that went up a great deal there were plenty of ipos that lacked in quality, i mean, the quality of ipos then versus now, you cant really even compare. Far Higher Quality now, its not even a comparison. But to your point qualcomm, great company, but i dont know that its ever regained the highs it saw then. I might be wrong cisco was a half a trillion dollar market cap at one point the Largest Market Cap Company out there. It has not ever regained that level. So, you know, thats got to be at least some sort of a warning sign and youve got this stuff starting to go around yesterday, guys, i dont know if you noticed, there was a note out that the xpx closed or rose more than 50 basis points while eight sectors declined and thats only happened one other time, february 23rd, 2000. One month actually, no, less than that is correct four weeks before the top of which we never did see again. March 10th was the top. Carl, lets understand that the people that did think that stocks only go up back then are not with us. And that doesnt mean that it wasnt a great ride if they took money off the table. I think that some money my travel trust took some amazon off, i thought i would never take amazon off but it became 8 of the trust it was 8 of the trust becoming the amazon fund. Jim, the ndx half 49 of the ndx is six names, apple, microsoft, amazon, facebook, google and tesla. Murderers row. Whats that its murderers row it was the yankees in 27. They had a better lineup than anybody. Portnoy, if people dont know him, barstool, maybe its the murderers row anyone who has ever played stratamatic knows you could never go against the yankees because they had six guys that represented they were better than everybody else on every team and i feel like thats what we have. We have Companies Like microsoft, no one is microsoft is monopoly in itself. All right. What . Jim, when do those things get to a level actually the other day you were getting somewhat uncomfortable with the 36 times earnings that microsoft was trading at by the way, compare now, again, i remember, again, back to 98 what yahoo traded at 50, 60, 80 times revenues. Right. Another company that never saw anything close to its highs of course that it reached at that point, but at what point here does valuation start to play a role or is that simply not going to be part of the conversation. I think when i say things are insane i feel like that this whole notion of using valuation has somehow gone out the window. What you need to figure out then thatsthe late 90s again. For a different reason. You have insiders who dont seem to want to sell, you have index funds that lets just admit rarely sell, you have a lot of new money coming in and you dont have any supply. These pictures that youre seeing are pictures of stocks, carl, where theres just no supply and i dont know where it is and i dont know when we find out. When we do, when theres all sorts of insider selling, if peloton right now came out with look at nikola, i mean, they finally got some supply and then cocacola is better than nikola. Jim, one last thing because i know david has ebay, but data track this morning says if you want to figure this all out looks to the vix and watch to see if it gets and stays below 20 which it never really did in 99 and years after the fact that became a pretty obvious tell. The s p oscillated, still not overbought despite this because its just a few stocks and a lot of other stocks are not doing well we dont talk about it enough. If you bought American Airlines you are not good i mean, the stocks that trade heavily right now are still the cruise stocks, still the Airline Stocks i mean, but youve got a stock like facebook, cocacola, disney, they are all pulling out and facebook keeps going up. Why . Because the small and medium size business continues to advertise on Instagram Stories i think the biggest thing we have to story about is what happens, how many people are taking that extra 600 for unemployment, giving it to robin hood and buying etfs that include the six, the magnificent six, whatever it is, and i think that thats worrisome to me but that does not mean they go down. Its unbelievable. If we dont admit that its unbelievable were crazy and maybe we are crazy is portnoy people dont know who portnoy is, they just know all they know is phillip roth, the guy is a complainer. A sane man is judged insane in an Insane Society you remember that one. American pastoral is portnoy, right . Until this guy surfaced, i mean, i loved i absolutely loved roth, he went to bucknell, he gave the commencement speech before i did there you go put myself in the same sentence as roth. David, how arrogant is that . Well, you know, youve known few bounds when it comes to arrogance but thats okay, much of its deserved, jim, much. Guys, do we want to talk about the ebay deal this morning i think we should. Its one of the larger deals weve seen you know, headline by the way 9. 2 billion but not necessarily the route that some had thought they would go in terms of the sale of the classified business of ebay. You can see the stock is looking up its had a great run already, it has benefited from the pandemic, the platform seeing traffic that it had not previously seen as people more and more shop from home of course the classified sale had been in the process for some time, there had been a number of potential buyers, we thought the bids might come in in the low 8 billion but they got 9. 2 but its more than that already because of the structure of the deal again, thats where i get back to something that i think is a bit of surprise. There had been an expectation that ebay would potentially sell classifieds for cash, simplify the business in a significant way which is what many of their shareholders had been pushing for. Instead they go for a deal in which they will get 2. 5 billion in cash and 44 ownership of norways atavinta. Take a look at shares of atavinta they are talking about 150 to 180 million and that has captured the imagination of shareholders of that company the overall value of the deal has just got up dramatically it would appear that perhaps ebay made the right choice here. I was told there was a private equity bid in the 9 billion change, naspers was also in there but there was a concern that eventually naspers might compete with the core marketplace business of ebay they chose this complex deal of which they will own 44 of adevinta and potentially sell it down over time at least based on that move and that stock perhaps the right deal because this is not a 9. 2 billion deal anymore its closer to an 11 billion deal. That was a great deal i thought that business was worth more i thought stub hub was worth more with no games and no concerts sold it when you did, the timing was great. I want to ask you, david, in the running were there any spacs in the running to get this no. No spacs in the running that im aware of. Spacs that are about to hit this market. I know. David, what do we do about that what does it say you can do the spac attack report today, jim, if you want to if youve got them. Its incredible. It has generated anonymous amount of fees on the Capital Market side for citi, credit suisse, a number of banks are active in this area but everybody is and everybody wants to do a spac that said this is not a company that was looking at rolling into a Public Entity as of course really what spacs are is another alternative to an ipo remember but on this deal, jim, back to ebay for a moment, you know, you are left now with the core marketplace business with the new ceo, jamie inoni who ran ecommerce of course at walmart and well see. The stock has done extraordinarily well because theyve seen already a significant increase in terms of traffic to the platform, but, you know, i think hes looking for opportunities to sort of reimagine the company at this point and theres a hope amongst their shareholders with stub hub out, with at least having monetized classifieds that the focus on organic growth at the core marketplace will actually prove successful. So, carl, you look at ebay, you look at that chart and you have to say to yourself, do you know what, ebay, which has gone up huge ahead of this. Turned out to be valued much valued much more highly than we thought it was and i think that what you might see, when you see something today about amazon and raising numbers, i mean, maybe whats really happening is that there is a moment in capitalism, david is going to hate this, maybe david can step off and make calls, theres a moment in capitalism where we say we undervalue these companies that took over the world, amazon, microsoft took it over and they were just incorrectly valued and thats really your hope. Ebay is a little bit more on a microcosm, but look at that. When devin was running it we thought it was worth 25, it turned out to be worth a lot more so the bulls have to hope, do you know what, theres a revolution going on and stocks were valued incorrectly and now we have to change the way we view things. Yeah. Maybe questions for bezos who is scheduled to testify, jim, next week we will take a quick break here. We will get to the earnings of the day, coke, lockheed, ibm from last night. Tell talk to james quincy and we will highlight tonights snap ual texan use. Biden with part three of his economic plan today. A wnade dogrof tesla a lot to get to in a moment. Youre first. First to respond. First to put others lives before your own. And in an emergency, you need a network that puts you first. That connects you to technology to each other and to other agencies. Built with and for first responders. Firstnet. The only officially authorized Wireless Network for first responders. Because putting you first is our job. Welcome to camp tonsafun on xfinity its summer camp, but in your living room. Learn how to draw with a minions expert. How to build an indoor Obstacle Course plus. Whatever shes doing. And me, jade cattapreta. The host of es the soup camp tonsafun. Its like summer camp, but minus the poison ivy. Unless you own poison ivy. In which case, why . Just say summer camp into your xfinity voice remote to join. Coke up 3 premarket despite organic revenue down 26, which as far as our databases go you have to go back almost 30 years to see a number that bad in a quarter. I think that james, you speak to james, hes rather upbeat because the quarter as it went on did get better. His company is heavily exposed to restaurants, quick serve better than just the fine dining, heavily exposed to cafeterias and not it cannot be made up with supermarket and e com sales, but i have tremendous faith that the worst is over, things can come back and i look at the model as he does of china which is starting to do much better and i think that that will carry over. Obviously if we reclose its not good and a very small percentage of his business is just traditional restaurants that are not coming back. So i think the cadence of the quarter as they say on these calls was very positive. We will see what quincy says in the next hour sara is going to bring him he did talk about something we see repeatedly from other companies and that the rationalization of the offering, right . Sku zombies i think he calls them. Everybody you have to send fewer skus the toughest thing when i talked to james, i said, listen, i ordered a couple cartons of coke zero and it came and i love it and i thought that that would be the beginning i thought others would do the same and it was done at the beginning, but its not being done as much now and so while i like that the stock is up, i dont know if it can stay up because these stocks are not the stocks that people love these are unwanted stocks and i just say that pels co had a great quarter, if you look at free low lays where they rash l rationalized the skus. Stocks do only go up, i mentioned that this segment, but pepsico is a better stock than cocacola but right now people are enamored with cocacola because its done nothing for so long Warren Buffett with cocacola, wells fargo. American express. American express, david, thank you. Youre welcome. Airlines. No longer doesnt own the airlines any more, we should point that out. Thats true i know that David Portnoy did say that hes not at the top of the game, Warren Buffett is not at the top of his game. Do you know what, i heard you say in the last segment something that we used to hear a lot that you were saying its different this time. Thats kind of what i heard you say. Okay. When trillion dollar stocks, david, go up 50 billion in a couple of sessions am i supposed to just say that thats the same this time is the same . No. They go up 50 billion a day no but are you changing your own assumptions to adjust to the reality as opposed to sticking with them no, its insane. Because weve seen this movie before listen, you may be right, maybe the world is going to be dominated by six giant companies, they will never be broken up, never be taken to heed in some way in terms of their market power and their valls louis will continue to go i dont know, amazon will be 3 trillion, right . Its a virus thats escaped will you give me that . Its a virus that escaped. When did the virus last escape it escaped in the book the stand and nobody everyone die at the lincoln tunnel scene and there was just a few people, 1 of the people managed to survive, even less in the stand. Stephen king tremendous pre cursing of what happened the 1 of the stocks we talked about, the 99, david, they never got through the lincoln tunnel. Okay. All right carl, i think you have to go to novels to understand what this is novels. Pretty more rows view. Cocacola down 28 , amazon might be up 28 . David, you used to talk about Amazon Web Services now youre poo pooing it. Im not poo pooing it amazon is an Incredible Company in every way tesla netflix, its tass nagt to your point. Yankees. Bezos net worth, guys, up 13 billion yesterday. One day. 13 billion unbelievable. Hes having a good year. We will take a break and get so some of the other names of the morning whensqwkn e re mes backth my name is christine payne, im an associate here at amazon. Step onto the blue line, sir. This device is giving us an Accurate Temperature check. Youre good to go. I have to take care of my coworkers. Thats how i am. I have a son, and he said, one day im gonna be like you, im gonna help people. Youre good to go, maam. I hope so. This is my passion. If i can take of everyone who is sick out there, i would do it in a heartbeat. As jim said on twitter last night very few thought ibm could have this good a quarter 218 beats by 11 cents revenue ahead and it is the top dow gainer ts mohirning. We will get the opening bell in just over six minutes. Announcer the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen. A leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. All right. Carl had mentioned ibm briefly there. Lets get into the earnings a bit more on the mad dak. Revenue 18. 1 billion, down 1. 9 when you adjust for divested businesses and currency. Cloud seems to be where they want us to focus, it is where the growth is. What stood out to you . This was the quarter that we realized the red hat acquisition was everything that people were hoping for red hat had just the two or three huge deals each quarter, they are now getting ten deals because the combination of ibm and red hat for companies that want a hybrid cloud, meaning some internal and some external. Ver going to vm but were also going to ibm and ibm when i spoke to after vin christian yesterday this was a confident company that is going to deal with the divisions that have shown these endlesses endless 5 and 6 percent declines, Global Te

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