The heels of positive covid19 vaccine news why are all the opening trades down check out the airlines and cruise stocks, battling rocky seas with major losses a cross the board. Lastly, check out casino names youd think they would rally but no a sea of red. Whats with the break down between positive vaccine data and these trades were back to the old play book in the market, tim yeah we had a week off. S p outperformed amazon 8 in a week boy look at the turn around, look at that move by amazon, big upgrades on the street, maybe its just catching up to the levels 3200 on amazon by goldman, alphabet shares theres Different Things going on as good as the potential vaccine news flow could be, i do think that the reopening trade is moving in reverse theres states that arguably have lost control. So, i think consumers are assessing, but more importantly investors are assessing what consumers may or may not feel comfortable doing in terms of gettings on airplanes and getting involved in some hospitalitiality type experiences and meanwhile mega cap tech, the trend of covid19, the new normal, hate using that term, is probably one you dont want to fade that trade whether cloud or ecommerce or recurring Revenue Streams changing the way we stay at home, whether its nesting, despite the facts that were rich in the tooth are changing based on a news flow. A vaccine tomorrow doesnt mean people will go out and take that vaccine. Thats the sense i have. So it doesnt surprise me to see the diver divergence we see tomorrow. Once upon a time that move will allow you to go out and catch a movie or dinner, and fast forward a week it doesnt hold up. Just to be clear, dont plan to go to buffet during the covid pandemic were having. But that being said, i mean, i think a lost the rally from the march lows with this huge anticipation that youve got all these resources head towards finding vaccine you know, this was very positive news today but it was telegraphed a bit. We knew there was good stuff coming out dr. Fauci talked about it last week other people hinted at that. There was going to be some positive news out there on these vaccines and you say, okay, when is it realistic that were going to manufacturer a vaccine and get herd immunity via vaccine. Its january 2021 that we get the vaccine into production its probably another six months before you get everyone vaccinated if they take the vaccination so now youre lookle q3 on 2021 on earnings, how Many Companies can sustain that thats why cruise and airlines didnt rally based on the positive vaccine news. Does this mean, karen, that the bid we saw last week in trans force and industrials, that thats over or do you continue with that sort of move in the markets . I im a little bit afraid it might be over unless we see something from congress that, you know, we see some kind of Infrastructure Spending bill that would obviously be huge i dont think at the moment thats right on the front burner something also, i agree with brian and tim, something tim touched on, some of these changes might be more permanent. When you look what sold off, airlines when you look at office reads and mall reads those are selling off and i dont know a vaccine cures the problem for office reads. Maybe we have a secular change and its more permanent rather so im a little bit concerned there. The other thing is this tech trade i mean, i love alphabet being up but at some point its probably gone too far whether thats right here, i dont know i dont have a better alternative to sell alphabet, i dont have a better alternative so im not going to sell it but im getting vertigo how some things traded today. And as alluded to couple analysts on the street dont have vertigo when it comes to amazon 3800 target for goldmans the shift to online some of that may be forever yeah, so just like theres going to be scar tissue on hospitality names and Companies Like amazon is massive. The stock topped at 3200 week ago so to slap 3800 target is not monumental especially with the Way Investors are focused on this area and theres few play thats have the moats that amazon has when you look at this short period of time, since when do investors care about price target bumps in stocks like this i dont find panic buying like this particularly healthy. Especially when you look at microsoft, amazon, google. Its getting a bit crowded when you look at nasdaq qqq it was half the performance of the weighted one so that is getting a little tipsy topsy. We can obviously talk about tesla later. Look at that stock the way it ramped midday, goofy stuff going on not sure when you look at under performance in the energy and retail and transportation stocks that this is particularly healthy action, it just is not. Healthy but if you have no alternative brian kelly that maybe you go with the goofy at this time with the feds backing. Yeah, listen, the nasdaq and particularly stocks like tesla, what not, as much as ive liked tegs law over the years less law over the tesla over the years, this reminds me how bit coin traded in late 17, had a ton of retail coming in. Bk, hold on, youre comparing the trading right now to the massive, giant, inflated bubble that bitcoin was. Yes this is what a top looks like. You have retail coming in they buy it indiscriminately. It could last forever. Put bitcoin chart and tesla chart up they look exactly the same doesnt matter the asset class lets be clear this is a bubble in stocks caused by the stimulus, Federal Reserve, all those things we can talk about but make no mistake this is an inflated bubble were in. We got an earnings alert on ibm trading higher in the aftermarket session diedra with all of the details. And melissa, given the occurring revenue and i. T. Spending, analysts were predicting huge shock from covid19 and some thought the guidance could be reinstated, that did not happen. Despite this being the first full quarter since the onset of the pandemic theres no release on the impact of the business. However were listening closely to what the ceo says on the call which just kicked off five minutes ago. He said theres shortterm challenges and also longterm opportunities as clients accelerate to cloud and a. I. A a mid the mandatoramid the mandaty he said ibm is feeling the impact of posterity measures company have put in place to reserve cash may be saw the price come down after market, they were high as 8 right after that relesion. So all in release so all in all a decent quarter but analysts would wait few quarters before getting too optimistic, the Company Needs to do more to prove the turn around plans are happening. This was the eighth straight quarter of flat or negative Revenue Growth so theres still some ways to go. But claoud was a bright spot an revenue grew 30 petitione yearr now making up a third of total sales if ibm holds 4. 5 gains could be 12k3w4r50e flat for the year for tech 120k stock giving investors hope the turn around is on track when it comes to cloud and red hot division. Yeah im not sure were ready to throw this into dance magnificenta and mak maga and make it mi ierkmiaga. Look at hybrid cloud adjusted 30 year over year and theyve come through difficult comps including the anniversary of red hat and cost cutting i think its a pretty good number their gts business is up about 30 . Their Software Business which is still 30 of their businesses is doing fine so i think in an environment where we wanted to see ibm pi t pivot, wed like to see the topline growth, if there is any growth the valuation is higher they play 5 dividend which seems extraordinary, not a reason to buy the stock but at a time the cloud and tailwind in the space gross margin up 160 basis points this was a good quarter for ibm. Theres big moves throughout mega cap tech why not ibm now. Karen is this value you could get behind. Yeah, actually. I agree, the quarter was decent given where we are, cloud obviously is a positive. Did i lose you no youre there youre here we might have lost karen so, dan, what did you make of ibm. I know what she was going to say. Really . Its not a value trap yet you have a ceo we know where he comes from. We know what the focus is. We know this company longsuffered under a i very weak plan to transition at a time all its competitors were doing. So you have 30 of revenues growing 30 a year thats fantastic with a new focus problem is you have legacy products that are not growing and theyre going to continue to shrink they have a massive pile of debt thats close to 70 billion. So youre going to need serious Margin Expansion market share gain to be able to pay down that debt 70 billion on a 112 billion market cap seems like a real problem to me. Its not going to be a growth name overall. If you want the to pay 12 time for tech stop with good levers thats cisco, intel or micron not ibm. Lets look at other names, Carter Braxton looking at names you should sell. Carter, what say you theres a lot of good ones. Before we get to the charts, just to put the ibm in perspective at 112 billion market cap the imply move from apple is about 5 . For apple to go up 5 its equal to ibm being wiped out zero almost no impact on the s p. Sort of tragic but there we have it in any event, few charts Sherman Williams this is convention generally a stock toying with the prospects of breaking out, its a stock to be bought. We seen how paypal breaks out and facebook or amazon while this is not a tech stock it is a welldefined juncture and you sigh the line there. The presumption is earnings beat will cause the break out at 600 plus minus level we think good 8 to 10 coming looking at cocacola the next chart. Unhappy. Down 1. 5 today. Big up day for the market. And coke is workingilities its work working its way into the apex, decision time, its often fundamentals that resolve the pattern, in this case, its likely to be an earnings miss or something not welcomed that will cause it to break down so coke, dont like it just for fun, two more charts. Heres a comparative chart look at both sherwin and coke in the last year and half what we know is the following, look at the final chart. What we got here is the same chart but weve included the s p, the flat line, and held it as a constant. This really exposed the relative performance of coke. Coke is literally week after week, month after month plummeting new lows. Not good sherwin buyer. Cocacola seller carter, thank you brian kelly do you agree with carter yes you know what, i do particularly on sherwin some of the changes you are seeing in society are going to be permanent people will spend more time at home, maybe i should paint the spare room, make it into an office, thats where Sherwin Williams comes in. You think of the psychology of new highs, everyone who owns stock has profit you dont have overhang supply usually when they break out like that they tend to trend pretty well so i like that on the long side. Coke looks horrible, simple as that it might get a tail wind from a weak dollar but why not put your money where the momentum is, going with sherwin. I feel youve had dust ups about it in the past sugar water have it if you want to be in it. Tim, are you still an investor. Look, paul rabil is coming on the show later so there will be no yard sales until then with coke you have a case where the rest rauaurant story is very, very difficult story, casual dining, et cetera, coke will struggle until we get more clarity having said that, coke has been a transition for years, this isnt your fathers cocacola. Its certainly not about cash nated soft drinks its about vitamin water, other drinks, its about water i think theyve refranchised and dealt with the bottlers and the Balance Sheet looks great, its a stock i want to own in this environment. Im not running for cover now. Coming up peloton shares cycle higher is there resistance ahead, we will debate. Plus more race for coronavirus vaccine, positive results but didnt help after rawstra zeneca stock talk. What gives with the report back in two. Astrazeneca. Now is the time to support the places you love. Spend 10 dollars or more at a participating Small Business and get 5 dollars back, up to 10 times with american express. Enroll now at shopsmall. Com. Save without even leaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. Switch and save hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back to fast money tesla shares up 9. 5 , record close, aiming for alltime high this quarter web bush has been bullish on the stock and said the conclusion of the s p 500 is pretty much a foregone conclusion at this point. Dan, i dont know, bk called it the bitcoin bubble, i dont know what you make of it. Listen, its trading like its going into something, you know maybe its heaven at this point. I think it seems that the foregone conclusion about it going in the s p 500 could end up being a somewhat binary trade. I think theres criteria that on a gap basis net income has to be positive in sum of prior four quarters and the last quarter. So right now its expected net income loss on a gap basis in the quarter. They dont come in there maybe they dont get out of this quarter then you have a situation where a lot of people were buying it in anticipation of that. Scow have index you could have indexers buying in anticipation. The stock is something we dont know what to do with it. Its a great story with a lot of enthusiasm about their problem it could be binary p event it has moved on average 13 day after earnings over the last four quarters. This move is unbelievable i was going to use another word but i think unbelievable fits it just the notion of s p 500 4. 5 trillion to the index 500 thats a lot of money to chase tesla at some point in time if it is included karen, can you wrap your head around the way the stock has moved. Even if we knew it was going to be included. Right i mean, no, its really hard to fath fathom it wasnt long ago we were talking about how the Balance Sheet was potentially a gigantic obstacle for them and obviously thats not the case any more this leave tags, i would never buy a stock because i think its going to be included in the s p 500. Because i dont know how much of the last, i dont know, several hundred points up is that trade, frontrunning that trade, i dont know but i just i mean, you know, good for arc and kathy wood, shes been right all along in this, but i mean, this last several hundred points seemed to just levitate, i dont know, magic. Magic. I would imagine all of the shorts are out at this point i hope for their sake that the shorts are out at this point at what point did you give up on that and would you take a look at this chart and incorporate what he bk said about comparing it to the bitcoin bubble which ended very badly would you short it here . You know what, i think you play with options. Ive been out of the short mal for 1300 or 11 something in there. But the point in there, storty around story around the multipleals, you mentioned the he fundamentals, its still way down some of this is liquidity flow some of this is, i was reading pipers thoughtful note last week that says we can justify 2300 a share when talking about 90 margin on a Software Package that would part of a purchase package for customers. Theres all these ways to adjust dcf and most of these price targets are dcf and to me dcfs are throwing darts i stopped throwing darts on this long ago i think you play with options. Theres times you see this type of move and its much like the rest of the stock market actually teslas moves is at the extremes this isnt a lot different than square and other mega Cap Tech Companies seeing massive liqu liquidity. I can try to defend this valuation, i dont think you truly can, thats where we are. Maybe its like shares of peloton, running higher today after new street target price 84. Analysts saying peloton low penetration in broad fitness market combined with rise of subscribers make it a buy. Up 130 this year. Also out today social media engagement metrics on facebook, instagram, theyre off the charts, unchartered territory to comps, last 2 q are easy, bk, is this the next bitcoin bubble too. I knew that was raise an eye brew i knew that would work you know, listen, as much as i like the story behind peloton any asset up 130 in a year, particularly when its a stock, you have to think about okay, whats the valuation here. And theyre not exactly cheap products theyre selling youre talking thousands of dollars. Eventually you run out of people who can spend 3 to 4,000 on a bicycle that sits inside maybe its got some more to go but if youre lucky enough to be in this thing why not take some off the table. But the high margin product is the software, karen, so if you dont need to sell the lowmargin hardware, so to speak and you sell the highmargin software to people maybe thats when the real juice is found for peloton . Right, i mean, thats a good model. Although i dont know how i mean, the bike has to be lower margin but maybe its not low margin, those bikes are expensive. But it is a committed group. I know you like to ride your peloton. I just i i looked at the goldman piece, it looked like they were sort of pulling forward the next year that sales are going to be a little bit front end loaded this and next year and then slow down. I mean, i find myself often saying i love the product but not the stock. Some of those stocks i definitely should have owned, like a netflix but this one i cant own either. All right coming up, the World Health Organization praising the latest batch of coronavirus data as good news, so how close are we, what name should be on your radar . Detail as head bumpy ride ahead, a hard landing asr this name. Ft money back in two you may be learning about, medicare and supplemental insurance. Medicare is great, but it doesnt cover everything. Only about 80 of your part b medicare costs. A Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan may help cover some of the rest. Learn how an aarp Medicare SupplementInsurance Plan, insured by Unitedhealthcare Insurance Company might be the right choice for y