Transcripts For CNBC Street Signs 20240712 : comparemela.com

CNBC Street Signs July 12, 2024

More than 3 higher. Shares in astrazeneca hit a record high as the giant prepares to release positive news on the covid19 vaccine and julius bar with a drop in assets under management but a record high net profit and stresses it is well prepared for a challenging second half. European leaders remain deadlock after a drawn out three day summit over the budget and recovery they will resume talks today over how to allocate the money and urging his colleagues to approve the Recovery Fund, italian Prime Minister pushed for unity emphasizing that the pandemic has effected the whole block. Were going through a stalemate. This looks like its very complicated. More complicated than expected theres many issues were discussing and were not yet able to resolve and i have invited all eu leaders to converge to approve the next generation eu which is a plan for european recovery. Over the weekend a lot of negative headlines around the stick point, the size of the fund, between grants and loans and now the all important governance question. This morning it seems like the tone is a little bit more positive what can you tell us where do we stand as we approach it at 4 00 p. M. Today. Right so one european official described the moment to me in a way that if the leaders wanted to get a deal then that will happen very quickly. If some of them want it were not going to see a break through today. Its the fourth consecutive day. And reach an agreement over this Recovery Plan and neo eu budget and wise the negotiations would have by now and if indeed the european counsel went and makes a proposal today, this afternoon based on all the conversations he has had with the leaders over the weekend, if all the 27 governments agree with that proposal then we could see a break through shortly after that its likely theyll have to come back in a few days time. Lets take a look at some of the remarks. European counsel president , in seven years of experience, positions so dopposed in ways. Theres three main points. The quality of money, a budget and aid package. So the biggest hurdle that emerged over the weekend is the division between france and loans out of the 750 billion Euro Recovery Fund but i just wanted to bring the context of these talks into perspective here because its actually the first time that the European Union is going to is planning to tap the markets in such a large scale. We cannot forget that they are short their physical stimulus measures and then also the European Central bank in the background theres a lot happening at the level. Lets see how it will make it this afternoon is this really about money. 50 billion here or there or is it about power dynamics. Bear in mind that this proposal ba based on one and it will come if the proposal is shutdown and what this could mean for the position of those two countries in the European Union. Its about that but its also about Historical Context and its also about the different political dynamics in the various countries. So we cannot forget that we have 27 european leaders. They all have a different political background they all have different realities back home. Now when i mention that one of the reasons why is again the large level of borrowing overall is the netherlands overall always had certain issues with the European Commission for not applying the stability and growth class in their view to the full extent. The European Commission is not going to sanction the countries so some people in the netherlands including the Prime Minister are in the opinion. And thats why theres a lot of debate right now about this governance of the Recovery Fund. So its indeed not just about the money but also whats happening back home. Were just over an hour into the Fresh Trading session. Were coming off of another decent week for european stocks. The third week in a row that european stocks have advanced but this morning weve opened up on the back foot a flat start to trade but we have traded lower now. So a little bit of stabilization coming through but interesting to see that investors are cautious as we closely eye the brussels discussions and also await the data their trial data is due to be released in the medical journal later on today on their candidate vaccine but not enough to get investors excited at this stage. Lets take a look at the individual markets the regional split this morning and what that looks like we have red across the board here the ftse 100 underperforming about 90 basis points. The dax is down about a third of a percent. And the ftse mib down. 4 . A little bit more interesting action that well come to in just a moment but first lets take a look at sectors and what the split looks like for equi equities this morning. Every single sector is trading lower. At the start of the Session Health care was in positive territory but even that sector now trading down below 10 basis points at the bottom, a very clear trend away from the cyclical sectors. Taking the hardest hit down 1. 4. We bounced off the absolute lows but still some selling pressures in the cyclical travel and leisure names and finally lets take a look at italian yields. Interesting action in bond markets. As you can see there, we have yields lower across the curb we have yields falling to early march lows apparently as potential for this grows. We had positive commentary as silvia pointed out this morning but still big gaps to close when it comes to things in particular like governance and the make up of the funds between grants and loans. So still a number of open questions but the italian bond market is reacting already lets bring in steen jakobsen. Great to have you on the show as always first up, whats your take on the eu summit discussions. Will we get a deal agreed . Of course we get a deal but first we have to go through the motions of delay, water down suggestions, nonreforms and then its its not good news in my opinion because its still of course this time also added ingredients and longterm budget and it goes on but it will be an interesting afternoon to see what comes through but obviously we get a deal because thats the way it works with the eu. Talk about, this will be just about what were used to seeing in europe. What does the market want to see. In other words, what would be an acceptable or positive deal from a market perspective the current recovery package being discussed. 390 billion euros in nonrepayable grants was the market like this no but it doesnt matter. Politically its very interesting. Pretty much any deal will do the works and the market of course is just looking for another pay out from government. Another extension off the fiscal side of things and the nonreforms that comes with the way its being constructed right now. Think about it now 200 debt to gdp it doesnt really matter at the end of the day and theyre never going to pay that money back and similarly now, 1,620 of gdp. For these countries its a little bit like we lost all the money but we are still going to play at the casino. And the fact that it has now become the centerpiece of policy here in europe, is that what we should be thinking about this reko r Recovery Fund that its not so much about the numbers today but the precedent that this set and what it means for European Growth Going Forward. Exactly right because the Recovery Fund claims to be temporary but i know from 30 years of doing this job, every time someone mentions the word temporary its going to be a fixture and secondly, they want to be able to issue it themselves Going Forward and to be selfreliant but that means that taxes will go up and away from the National Treasurers this is a make or break deal because theres in essence the Eu Commission using this deep, deep Health Care Crisis to try to get through stuff that they have been trying to deal with for a long time. So the combination of the Recovery Fund and the fact that the Eu Commission is trying to get away with being able to raise not only through funding but also through taxes is a turning point in the history of the eu. Italian yields are moving lower in todays summit. Theyre now working to see to some extent sharing when it comes to debt. As long as you have a nonfuncti nonfunctioning market it would be ideal because it plays in access so its an effort for the treasurers and banks and asset Liability Managers like the pension fund so it would be very, very support i have but in terms of the economic background of this, it changes zero literally zero interest in the fundamentals because this is a grant pay out and what theyre trying to avoid is to get an increa increase in debt to gdp. Its on a slippery slope. He wants to have a payroll tax cut that equates to 1 trillion foundational on the budget so i think that its going on on the u. S. In terms of spending more even than the eu is doing and i think in terms of the sectors, i saw steve last segment was talking about the potential. We remain with the case europe cannot perform were bettering in health care and transformation theres a high chance that we see the break. 50 basis point below that. Its fascinating. This call that seems to be gaining a bit of momentum now. From an economic point of view, its a big week for pmi. Were going to get the flash numbers on friday. Some are expecting europe to show a stronger improvement and its had a clearer run of reopening. Would you share that view. I will say immediately that i give zero credability to pmi all of these things are based on service that i dont really buy. In that sense, of course europe is continuing to opening up while the u. S. Over the weekend has seen among other things los positively again. And the impact on the economy is also indicating that this should be in place and could do it over the next two or three months thank you for joining us. Chief economist. I mentioned this before, i want to highlight the details. The release of phase one human trial data of Coronavirus Vaccine candidate is due for release later today. The data will cover the efficacy of the vaccine in producing antibiotics and killer tcells in patients. Theyre trading higher this morning up about 1. 2 . A record high earlier this morning. Elsewhere in the health care space, gsk will take a 10 stake in the German Biotech Firm for 130 Million Pounds the first step toward collaborating on a novel candidate. You can follow us on twitter at street signs cnbc and you can tweet me directly. I always love to hear from you coming up on the show, more dismal data from japan the pandemic weighs on Global Demand for cars and other japanese products. Brap now is the time to support the places you love. Spend 10 dollars or more at a participating Small Business and get 5 dollars back, up to 10 times with american express. Enroll now at shopsmall. Com. Welcome back to street signs. Lets get into some of the keycorp rats in focus this morning. Julius bar posted record first half earnings as revenue soared amid the pandemic. Net profit rose 43 in 491 million franks but its assets under management fell 6 compared to the end of last year jew theyre sticking to the midterm targets despite the outbreak uncertainty. Phillips expects to return to growth in the second half of the year thats after the giant posted a 6 drop in Second Quarter sales weighed down by the pandemic the Company Reported a nearly 30 increase in new orders for ventilators and other hospital equipment. In the auto space renault hosted a 34. 9 decrease in lock down. Japans exports dive. It was not quite as bad as the one in may but the trading data for the worlds Third Largest economy raises worries for a prolonged economic downturn. Global demand for cars and other durable goods have plummeted since march. They have ordered lock down to protect their citizens from the pandemic where we left off in the Asian Session we have a lot of green on the board there for shanghai composite ended 3. 1 higher. They also surged today after Chinese State media reported that chinas top security regulator would encourage m as in the industry to create stronger players in the financial space. All of that really did help the markets take off again after the b benchmark saw the biggest fall in months. Also despite the geo political tensions were seeing, earlier this month it introduced the new sanctions regime aimed attack at tackling human rights abuses. Theyre responding to that yesterday. And they said that beijing would firmly respond to any attempt by the u. K. To sanction chinese officials. Also defended the treatment of weaker muslims saying that every ethnic group in china is treated as equal and denies that there was concentration camps in the region but the British Foreign secretary said that its clear he had suffered human rights abuses in china and that the u. K. Has raised this with the United Nations to try to call out china over this but also hong kong and is expected to give an update on the next steps regarding hong kong and china later today. Back to you. Finance ministers and Central Bank Governors make a final decision on the debt Suspension Program following the Virtual Summit over the weekend. The World Bank President says the situation is becoming increasingly desperate for developing countries and urged nations to do more according to it, 42 countries so far requested to suspend 5. 3 billion in Debt Repayment we spoke to the finance minister after the meeting what type of recovery he expects to see following the pandemic. But i am optimistic as always. I think at least in saudi arabia, see that after the let down and people are back and its the cup and its how things develop. And were watching what is happening in the world at the end of the day, peoples life. Its deeply concerning i think for a lot of people specifically in the region as investors. As you look at whats happening at the oil sector. How worried are you about the economies getting back on track. Given the price today. Even the worse oil prices and, you know, worst geopolitical separation and strongly i think this is going to be an exception. We are watching with something obviouslybut. We do actually talk about what is the price in our budget but generally were hoping and i think that youll see by then that we would manage our fiscal buffers. We have buffers with saudi arabia and sufficient constraint and we think that we would come out stronger the saudi finance minister speaking there with our colleague hadley campbell. Coming up on street signs delivery hero is on the way to expand in 35 new markets with the Quick Delivery Service well speak to the ceo after the break. Shares hit a record high after the british pharma giant prepares to release positive news of the covid19 vaccine and the who reports a record single day increase in global coronavirus cases but President Trump once again insists covid will disappear. I will be right eventually. Its going to disappear and ill be right do you know why it doesnt because ive been right probably more than anybody else lets get a check on european markets trading for about an hour and a half. Were coming off of three straight weeks of gains for european equities. Can it outperform given the outbreak is largely under control. Ftse 100 down about 1 and the dax is down. 4 . French and italian markets coming under a bit of selling pressure were all keeping our eyes peeled for the data expected to be published today in the medical journal. The set on the vaccine candidate that its producing for the university of oxford developing the vaccine. So all eyes on the vaccine front later today. Futures have been holding relatively steady throughout the morning. 170 points lower also poised from a weekly start and last week the nasdaq under performed the broader u. S. Markets ending the week in negative territory for the first time in three weeks. That was in contrast to what we saw in broader u. S. Markets. The rise in face coverings and businesses come as President Trump doubled down on his vow now to implemented a national mandate. So Companies Taking matters into their own hands seeing more Companies Mandating the face coverings on their own accord. Now its aiming to deliver groceries as well as medicine and electronics and Household Goods to customers in less than an hour. Theyre planning to roll out the new service in 35 countries. This involves electronics, pharmaceuticals and a much the y prospect of this business compare to traditional food delivery and its Additional Service to give to our customers. People love it and so do we. What is the real benefit of scale. And all of a sudden to 10 or 11 after deducting for Delivery Services and riders. Were charging a very small fee and we make one and now that means theres an enormous amount of scale or we have to drive prices and we need large scale and uber and many others think it. And one of the Big Questions i think when we look at this

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