Coronavirus vaccines produced neutralizing antibodies in all 45 trial patients. One analyst just gave it the highest price target on the street he will join us. Power lunch starts right now welcome, everybody great to be with you the Federal Reserve has released its beige book for a closer look at the economic recovery well have more on that as we dig through the headlines. We want to get it to you fast, we want to get it to you right we want to go to bob for a check on the markets hello there, tyler. We are sort of right in the middle of our 40point trading range in the s p 500 weve been stalling out at the 32, 33 level thats where we started the year thats where the june recent highs were were having trouble getting over that. The s p this week, about a 100point range. The good news, optimism on vaccine. The bad news is the reopening reclosing story is murky, causing a lot of stocks momentum apple up tech down today. Travel stocks, you see the optimism on the vaccine front, travel stocks go up. They are 60 off where they were back in february, so bear that in mind. Bank stocks, good news is the Regional Banks had provision for loan losses but not as bad as wells fargo. Thats helping them out. The problem is the trends are rather troubling for all of these Regional Banks loan losses generally still have higher provisioning. The average amount of loans is still going to be lower. The fees is lower. The news is not good for Regional Banks and the net interest theyre getting off the yield curve, still weaker in general. Theres nothing to offset the lower interest, the lack of loan growth and the flat yield curve, guys thats one of the problems Regional Banks have been having for a while. Back to you. Thank you, bob pisani lets get to Rick Santelli for the beige book, which was just released moments ago. On one hand, fed says activity increased in almost all districts. On the other hand, it increased but still well below precovid levels theres your tug of war with regard to headlines. The fed, of course, is implementing lots of programs. I believe theres nine of them about half of them are functioning. And things have worked out pretty well. If you look at how the markets reacted to some of these early headlines on the beige book, you know, two years havent moved much theyre a little down on the session. If you look at tenyears, virtually unchanged at 62. Go down the curve, 30year bonds are getting a little frisky. The dollar index is like a third of a cent off its lows today it was well below 96 its firmed up none of that is beige book responsible. In the end, if youre going to walk away with a notion on the beige book and the feds next meeting, things are looking good, but theyre not going to look nearly as good as they did in february. Back to you. For more now, lets bring in Steve Liesman whos been tearing through this report. What have you found . Yeah, pretty much that same split there which is this idea that things did pick up pretty much across the board. Consumer spending picked up. Most districts reported manufacturing moved up again, its a level issue but from a very low level. Construction did remain subdued though it did pick up in some districts. Home sales increased modestly. The ppp and loan deefrls by private lenders reportedly provided many firms with sufficient liquidity for the near term, it says however, theres some concern it remains uncertain because they grappled with how long this covid19 pandemic would go on and the magnitude of the implications unemployment, it increased in all districts as businesses reopened and ramped up activity. Most would have come before the surge. In is an interesting line, it says contacts in nearly every district noted difficulty in bringing back worker because of health and safety concerns, child care needs, we talked about that yesterday, and generous Unemployment Insurance benefits they said they have been retaining workers with the help from ppp, but Going Forward the strength would determine whether they can avoid layoffs thats another interesting cliff theyre facing there good growth from the level but the level remains low. Tyler . Thank you very much, Steve Liesman. Here to react to these Economic Data weve just received is seth carpenter, chief economist at ubs and ron insana, schroeder north america. Ron, my reaction to what i just heard rick say is, tell me something i dont know in other words, the idea that the economy is performing better than the prior beige book but not back to precovid levels is about as obvious a conclusion as i suppose you could anticipate and i think, tyler, also those data were compiled before we had the reemergence, if you will, of lockdowns in states like california, arizona, texas and florida, which have dialed back their reopening measures. Clearly thats not reflected in the beige book yet, nor, i think, will be this fiscal cliff that everybodys talking about being a Small Business person myself, one can attest to the fact that any kind of deferrals on any owed payments and any assistance a Small Business person could have gotten is now gone what Small Businesses and individuals do Going Forward is going to be interesting because most of this runs out between now and the end of the summer. Most deferrals run out, because if you got one, they were three months in length thats it. I dont think the beige book captures the moment. It captures the past two months. I think the real question for the markets, as much as theyre cheering the fact that the fed said activity picked up, picked up in past tense, might be the operative phrase. Seth, pick up on what ron has just said there. That is, it is a backward looking survey, which it certainly is, but drill down a little bit as we look at the path forward here. Ron identifies the idea that some of the stimulus is going to fall away. There is the, quote, fiscal cliff that may fall away what do you see over the next, lets say, four months, 100 day dids to election day in terms of the economy . Yeah, i think theres a lot here thats critical i think the levels versus change thought perspective is exactly right. Were still weak i think the other point the beige book makes that i think is critical for the 100 days is theres turnover in the job market thats super high we saw two months of strong job gains. We have more people employed than we did a couple months ago. But youre still getting Unemployment Insurance claims of 1. 5 million per week per week thats just a huge number. And so whats happening is everything is changing some parts of the economy are opening up, people going back to work but then the Small Business concern that was just mentioned is absolutely critical and all the while, while the Small Businesses enjoyed the initial pop of the reopening, you still have 1. 5 Million People per week getting laid off. I think its going to be a rocky patch. We had two months bouncing off the bottom that looked really good Going ForwardGoing Forward, i think things have to slow down. Steve, up to what point do the surveys capture the Economic Activity in these districts . Usually a couple weeks before i didnt check the exact dates but usually a couple dates before the selected on or before july 6th, so its about nine days old is the amount of time i was just reading the dallas Federal Reserves report in this thing. I dont see much in terms of discussion of a resurgence in there, at least not immediately. But it does give us some information about the months ahead, which is the idea that these ppp loans are going to run out and thats going to be an issue. You have ben bernanke writing today about his concerns state and local government layoffs, which are already happening. And you have concern about whats going to happen with the Unemployment Benefits running out. These are issues that, i guess, the market is looking past, melissa, in my opinion it feels as if these things are going to be resolved we talked to bullard yesterday he talked about the idea that he expects additional fiscal stimulus or Fiscal Relief to come from congress and the president. So, it seems as if the markets baking that in that theyre not going to allow these things to fall off in a cliff sort of way. Sure. But theyre going to have to happen in order for the economy to sustain the momentum in this report. It may not be a cliff, ron, but it could be a small dropoff i mean, its interesting that the markets assume, that the consensus is there will be a continuation of Stimulus Program of some sort yes, that may be true, but the degree of the stimulus is the real detail that needs to be figured out. Because if youre talking about something that Mitch Mcconnell has been talking about, stimulus for 40,000 income and less as opposed to what it is now, 75, thats a big difference. The difference in terms of the number of people being helped. Yeah, listen, it goes to the people who need it most and living paycheck to paycheck. When you consider Small Businesses in excess of 75,000 or 100,000. If they already spent their ppp, its all been spent, no extension of that, no extension of Unemployment Insurance benefits that have been as generous as the ones weve seen. Yes, it might have provided some shortterm disincentive for people to return to work their return to work may not be guaranteed either. What we saw in the last unemployment report, despite the fact we saw a rebound in jobs, there was 6,000 permanent layoffs on are firings these numbers, you really have to sift through them closely i would argue that unless you match the size of the benefit package weve seen before or something that bridges us to a vaccine or a bulletproof therapeutic, theres going to be a falloff in Economic Activity and the market is looking well past that. In my estimation, maybe a little too far past it. Seth, the market tends to focus on i think we would have to say, larger companies. Not that all companies that are measured on the stock market are large, but many of them are. Ron talks about Small Businesses and i wonder what the toll economically is going to be as Small Businesses find that they just cant make it there are big employers. A lot of people will be out of work there are places that are going to go bellyup and not pay their rent and just close up shop. So the landlords of those places are going to be in trouble how do you see this playing out . And what might it do to the social fabric in this country, frayed as it already is . I really do worry about that. Youre absolutely right. From my perspective its all about employment, which then feeds into people spending in the economy which leads to more employment thats just absolutely key and i do worry about you said the social fabric. I think the friction is sand in the gears and then eventually causing the machine to break one place i look is the Labor Force Participation rate it did come up in the last two jobs reports but Labor Force Participation rate fell for seven straight years after the financial crisis and it dropped like a stone with covid. If we dont get people coming back into the labor markets, dont have jobs for them, that really retain them, then i think part of that underlying potential of the growth of the economy gets lost. I think it is a key consideration. Folks, thank you very much. Ron, seth, we appreciate your time weve got a news alert on china. Lets get to kayla taufor the details. President trump yesterday signed into law legislation that would allow the white house to place sanctions on chinese officials for the actions theyre taking in hong kong. Im told by two sources briefed on the matter that the white house is holding on of on actually moving forward with those sanctions for now. They have assembled a list of potential targets for those sanctions if and when they decide to move forward, but that the Trump Administration at this moment in time does not want to worsen relations with china. Especially given everything going on in the u. S. Economy, the months leading up to the election, and the uncertainty about how china would respond to that were they to do so. Certainly, an Interesting Development considering the bill he signed into law last night. The powers it gives the president and the fact he is holding off on doing that, for now, according to my sources back to you. Kayla, thank you. Still ahead, the s p 500 briefly turning positive for the year before giving up all those gains. All 11 sectors are still positive with industrials and materials leading the what i here plus, shares of moderna higher today on vaccine results. The stock is up more than 300 this year. A top analyst says its got more room to run. Hell join us after this quick break. S. Welcome back rallying today, moderna after releasing positive data results for its Coronavirus Vaccine as it gets ready to start phase three of its trials. Lets get more on this exciting story. These are the full phase one results of modernas covid19 vaccine trial. The first one they ran in humans we got a peek at these results back in may, but this is all 45 participants worth of data. What it showed is they generatesed a neutralizing antibodies at levels that were two to four times higher than in patients who have actually recovered from covid19. Those are the important antibodies thought to block the virus. They also did observe side effects in the dose level that theyre taking into the next large stage of Clinical Trials particularly after the second shot things like fatigue, chills, headache and muscle pain so, those will be watched closely along with other signs of efficacy as they go into phase three. Thats expected to start july 27th pfizer also expected to start a large phasethree trial in july followed closely by astrazeneca where its just been reported their phase one data will be published in the lancet on monday there are a lot of questions, though, about how will we supply the world with these vaccines . And the fda commissioner was just asked about this at the Economic Club of new york. Heres how long he said it would take the it will take months to get that weve got a head start, which is great. But, obviously, we want to ramp up as quickly as possible. And the as much as we can do to shorten that. The challenges, the logistics here is why he says everybody is hoping multiple vaccines will work certainly, there are a lot of shots on goal, guys. Meg, thank you. Well, Piper Sandler is raising its moderna price target of a street high to 131 from 100 other Companies Working on a covid19 vaccine are up as well. Yeartodate gains, novavax up 250 , inovia edward, great to have you with us thank you i wanted to pick up where meg left off and that is the challenge of the logistics and manufacturing part of it even if moderna gets it past the finish line and every successful Clinical Trial it seems closer and closer to do that, its never produced a commercial product before will it have to partner in order to get this done actually, melissa, theyve already partnered with lanza, which is really the largest Contract Manufacturing organization between modernas facilities outside of boston and the lanza facilities, they expect to be able to make 500 million doses, sufficient supply for 250 million vaccines by next year. Even though they havent done this in the past, they have a very Strong Management Team with lots of people who are very experienced. They have gotten money from the government as well as investors to start already stockpiling commercial supply in the event that the phase three is successf successful so, i do expect theyll be able to deliver large quantities of vaccine. In terms of the side effects, meg mentioned this as well, at the desired dosage, the intermediate dosage, there were severe side effects reported 40 actually reported fever of over 100 degrees is that a concern and could that be a stumbling block to fda approval, even though the fda has said it will approve vaccines that produce antibodies, have an immune response yes so, the important thing is at the 100 microgram dose, which is what theyll be using in the phase three trial, there were no serious adverse events the most common adverse events were injection site reaction and also, as you mentioned, these flulike symptoms, so fevers and chills and aches those are very common with vaccinations, including the flu vaccine every year the reason for them is actually because the vaccine is stimulating the immune system, so those are actually immunemediated adverse effects and actually shows the vaccine is working. There are a number of bears on the street when it comes to moderna, edward. Im sure youre aware of them. They often point out the companys i dont want to say proceed clifty but the fact the last time the Company Released topline data it went to market with a secondary offering. Taking a look at the Company Filings filed with the s. E. C. , you see a lot of Company Officers selling stock i went through those filings this morning since the beginning of july, they have sold more than 71,000 shares since the beginning of july should investors be leery of a