Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240712 : c

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240712

It all about the guidance as well will we get a big ozark on netflix. Their numbers are coming out big banks as well. Everybody, a big week for earnings welcome. A big day for the markets as well let us begin with the rally on wall street. The nasdaq hitting record highs. A bunch of big Tech Technology names. Continue to make new highs when you look at this market could you ever predicted four, six, eight weeks ago that we would have gained 20 and 30 in matter of weeks even as the country continues to talk about reshut downs for 30 of our economy of course i saw this coming. Didnt we all see it coming. What i hold here are fundamentals this is an income statement. This is a Balance Sheet statement. Take it and rip it up because right now fundamentals are not fundamentals technicals are the fundamentals. It is driving the nasdaq continually higher i want to emphasize for a second, tesla. Think about this on friday, tesla will expire the 2500 call that is 750 higher than where we are trading right now those calls traded today at 17. They didnt just trade for 100 or 500 contracts theyve traded 25,000 contracts as we speak right now. It is clearly a chase for performance fp youre an analyst youre continuing to raise your price targets because of what youre witnessing within the nasdaq and even for this s p i will repeat, the technicals are now the fundamentals all right joe, obviously saw this coming as well. Shann shannon, were you one of those that saw this coming and what do you attribute this to . Is it is idea, this will sound bizarre but if the numbers for covid get worse, the market gets a fed put put underneath it because the odds of more or bigger stimulus grow its almost this kind of sickened version between the Health Numbers and the market numbers. You have a foundation thats been provided by the fed and frankly by congress as well. I know were talking about a fiscal package that wont be as large as the cares act was we anticipate additional aid and it does sound like that will come the challenge is the trade as long as it continues to be this fear overhang combined with somewhat improving economic data, people are looking for safety and safety is in these large cap tech names not just tech. Amazon Consumer Discretionary but the challenge is strong Balance Sheets and a feeling that were going to continue to have stimulus. That couples to create a back to a new normal what was working prior to covid, these companies. What would work better after covid and continue to receive a tail wind, these same companies. The story is not as clear for some of the cyclical sectors if you look at financials and energies, industrial, materials. Theres the Second Derivative or that Inflection Point in the economy thats necessary for those companies to perform and take full advantage of the fed and fiscal tail waninds we dont feel confident in that. Thats why youre continuing to see the trade into the names that have worked okay. Lets talk about that safety trade, if you will we ran this this morning on world wide exchange. Its the waiting of the top five stocks in the s p 500 going all the way back to 1960 believe it or not, we had a higher weight of the top five stocks in the early 60s, but look at this chart the Top Five Companies now account for 25 of the market value of the s p 500 10 more than in 1999. Is that safe lets dance a bit with this because theres other ways to look at it that basic seaccent e point. That number is higher than the combined total weighting of the financials, industrials, energy and materials in the s p 500 thats one way of looking at it. Is it safe, is your question the answer is i dont think you can really make a claim that these large tech companies, large Consumer Discretionary companies will come down soon. The other side is the stocks that have been left behind year to date before the market open today, it was down 13. 3 . Compare that to the s p 500 market cap that was down 1. 3 . That gap tells you the average stock is really still having a lousy year it doesnt feel this rally that leaves some room for those left behind stocks to maybe start to catch up. I dont think you have to have the high flyers come down. Having a balance between those high flyers and some of those stocks that have been left behind is the strategy im taking megan, i kind of feel like its a budweiser commercial because you have these four big horses the collideclydesdales pulling. The market is beginning to look euphoric, their words. Can these horses, if you will, five, six, zseven of them, can they keep running . I think its a very different environment than what we saw in the 90s theyre Business Models are very different. They are part of a new economy do valuations still matter yes. Where we think these are solid companies. We are with not expecting a sharp v shape recovery you need to be looking for those companies general rating their own grooet they will do well after. They also did well during the crisis, if you will. That positive optionalty from the high growth names, we think is an attractive place to be in the market still rob as prices go up and we dont know what the denominator, the e will be. Valuations was going up. Were trading at 25 times earnings on the s p 500. At the same time the earnings estimates have come down more than 40 and about 190 or so companies have simply pulled their guidance do you have concerns about valuation when theres so much we dont know . Yeah, its really a tale of two markets. Jim was getting to this. So was everybody else that spoke in advance of me youre having people hiding out in the new defensives. I would argue they have gotten pretty expensive when you look at the russell 1,000 growth trading at 27 times. The russell 1000 value trading at 15 times, i think you have kind of the two big too fail cyclicals have gotten lost in this the performance of the russell 1,000 growth is up 15 plus . The pretrial conference of the growth indirks ces has really tracked. Its followed the path of the virus. As we get better news on the path of the virus, if we get better news on the path of the virus, i think what youre going to start to see is a broadening out, a rotation into these cyclicals. I think theres safety in some of these tech names until we start to get a handle on the virus and then i think theres optionalty in some of the cyclicals. Thats what were looking for. Ill describe us as in the consensus, the caution consensus. Ultimately the clarity comes from the election. Its the election being over that provides clarity so we know where we are im going to get to some of these individual calls in a second joe, i want to go to you quickly. On the macro market again, were not picking on the Technology Names but you feel like on this show, they absorb so much that market oxygen. Even if they keep going, are we ignoring maybe better opportunities in other names its not just them hitting new all time highs you have a crazy list of Companies Hitting new highs today. You have freeport, justice of the peace jb hunt theres a lot of Good Companies that some people discovered. Are we losing our focus because were so focused on these seven stocks were chasing performance when you look at the big four, take where they were in 2010 market capsize they were 716 billion. At the end of the decade, they were 4. 1 trillion this is not a unique circumstance for these big fours. Additionally, keep in mind you cannot draw the comparison to 1999 in 1999, what we finally had in the subsequent 12 to 18 months tech find its peak, there was a long period, a multiyear period where tech was clearly an under performer. I think what were experiencing here is the big four have gone parabolic and if they are going to correct, theyre going to correct but its going to be a very short duration of correction i was kidding when i said i saw this coming because clearly i didnt its just a parabolic nature is so tempting for investors as it relates to the big four in technology thats whats going to be popularized as the trading strategy until you can break that fever and ultimately you will but timing it is nearly impossible by the way, boring home goods. The water pick and baking soda, a new all time high. General mills, i guess were eetsi in eating more cereal lets stay on the big cap teches because they are so widely known. When we talk about apple and its relationship to the market, i gez you got to love these calls. Apple is a stock that everybody owns and nobody really is excited to own it it feels very much like a staple in your portfolio. Im being serious. How many calls over the course of the last years or how many times on the show have people been i like the stock. I like what tim cook is doing. Its a Consumer Brand of product. What we think about in terms of liking the story in apple is if you like the continued growth over next couple of years and a Strong Management Team and youre excited about 5g and excited about them gravitating towards a wider selection of product so they can capture different tiers of product then apple is great i think you like the calls because you own it this isnt a stock that people come onto this show all that often and talk about how much they love it but most of us own it and well continue to own it as we think the execution will be there theyre going to hate me for saying this. I hope tim cook is not listening. He probably watches cnbc all day long is apple kind of utility at this point, at least from a cash flow generation machine perspective how about its a utility from a stock market point of view meaning, everybody owns it and it feels safe. People need to know what do you do with the stock. Ive owned apple for many years. Ive trimmed it twice this year. By definition ive trimmed it at lower prices than we are now and ive been wrong. I feel great i feel terrific. Now i feel like im playing with house money. If it goes to 450, im going to feel even better if it comes down, ive raised dry powder i could put it back to work in apple. If you own apple at these levels, maybe its a good idea psychologically to take a bit of money off the table. If you dont own apple, theres probably two people in the whole world. Maybe knocking on the door 400 isnt the time to initiate the position by the way, the stock is 50 above wall streets median price target which is 347. Analysts will have to raise their targets or the stock will have to come down. Just quickly, jim, follow up, if you were to trim some apple and listen to the great levanthal. Where do you put that money, cash or other stocks lets talk about something other than tech and Consumer Discretionary. We have the banks coming out this week. These stocks, you can pick your poison citigroup trading at 70 of tangible book value. You think they will lose 30 of their market cap in terms of credit losses i dont. Goldman sacss is rocketing its on fire if you want to hate the banks, hate them but you got to love go Goldman Sachs. Theres some places to put your money. It ate peeppears the banks ae telling an economic story that the rest of the market is not recognizing or do the banks simply have their own issues a little of both. Its not that the market is not recognizing it not rising it yet. I think the banks have an enormous opportunity as jim was saying credit provisions are everything they have taken an enormity of credit provisions. It would be very specific to this time. Markets dont like to discount that the yield curve, slope of the yield curve could be an issue for a long time, but investing is about price its at what price tech will come into the rest of the market or the rest of the market will play some catch up it doesnt have to play a significant amount of catch up what allows the banks and some of the other Cyclical Companies to play catch up is theyve thrown in the baby with the bath water. They have gotten to a point where theyve taken so many provisions that the numbers can get better fundamentals can look attractive simply because of price in improving numbers that delta is really what draws investors in i think youll see some of that perspectively. I agree with jim wholeheartedly. Probably 100 plus billion across the entire spectrum nobody is suggesting this is 2007 or 2008 if the economy continues to slow, we could see millions more mortgage defer yrals we talk about work from home, we dont want people to lose their homes. The banks tells a story that appear so different than Big Technology we are still a bit cautious on the financials. The banks in particular. The smaller regional banks that are dependent on loans the lower income tiers have been holding up well. If that does not continue at the rate they expect, there is some opportunity for some right downs that the banks will have to take on consumer lending. Joe, you bought Goldman Sachs. Why . I did i think the strong thesis surrounding financials the fun semoney center banks im long jpmorgan. They are best in breed they have done a great job diversifying i think the right thing to think about here is the strength as rob rightfully mentions of Capital Markets. I was already long on morgan stanley. Im long nasdaq. I think the exchanges do well. I believe theres a strong expectation that Capital Market will be a significant contributor to revenue in this quarter and additionally moving forward. Keep in mind, weve got volatility at the highest level that its ever been at relative to the s p also being at a very high level that bodes well for trading activity do not forget about november 3rd. The election every day we get closer to it, the focus on it should grow especially for investors trying to understand the meaning of each possible outcome with the president ial election, the senate and the house you guys did a deep dive into the election what are your odds and its not a political interview. You have to guess and try to figure out where things may go to your view, what are the odds of a democratic sweep . White house, senate and they alreadycontrol the house thanks for having me. This is what i would say our focus, clearly here is to try to understand what are the implications for equities and for the market come the november election theres been a lot of talk on the street about seeing a shift and potentially democratic sweep come november. It would also change the legislative agenda what are the basicimplications of that for equities i would say the consensus view has been one thats pretty negative people saying market down 10, some saying the market down 30 . Were not as negative. We think a democratic sweep would be at a minimum a neutral and if anything, a slight positive for equities. The reasoning is as follows. First of all, you cannot just look at the agenda right now at face value history shows the winning part tends to converge after they win. Secondly, a lot of the items are quite positive on one hand theres a lot of discussion about increasing the Corporate Tax rate that could act as a head wind for margins. Is that because let me jump in. Is that because whomever is in the white house in january whether its trump or whether its biden, is probably going to inherit a shaky economy at best. A second possible wave and no matter what, if biden wins, whatever he says the campaign trail, hes not going to be able to enact a lot of stuff because the market, the economy, i dont mean the stock market. I mean main street america may not be about to absorb a great deal of economic change right now. I think thats a very fair point. If you think backwards sort of obama when he inherited when he got elected, he inherited a weak economy trump inherited a strong economy. Whoever inherits it will be a fragile economy. I think that will con train partially the agenda that will be sort of pushed forward. I think the agenda, as a result of a weaker economy will have to be focused on job recovery, job growth you talked about infrastructure we have been waiting on infrastructure since the invention of the bridge. Do you believe theres an actual chance that whomever is in the white house or Controlling Congress will pass some kind of a one, two, three trillion dollar infrastructure package . Its a tough question i do think so. I do think that Infrastructure Spending is something that has been pushing the idea many times by both sides, both parties. It fits. I do think i would way yes. I would say yes. I do think theres a chance we get that through all right really interesting note. Thanks very much for your time do appreciate that we have got a double dose of disney news hitting the tape today. They are opening up disney world in florida but in maybe a surprising move, reclosing Disney Hong Kong all this as Goldman Sachs makes a new bull call on the stocks. Well debate it when Halftime Report returns in two minutes with the d uowp about 200 points were back right after this. Experience the adventure of a bigger world in a highly capable lexus suv. At the golden opportunity sales event. Get zero percent financing on all 2020 lexus models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Now you can trade stocks and etfs for any amount you choose instead of buying by the share. All with no commissions. Stocks by the slice from fidelity. Get your slice today. Stocks by the slice from fidelity. Simon pagenaud takes the lead at the indy 500 coming to the green flag, racing at daytona. Theyre off. In the kentucky derby. Rory mcllroy is a two time champion at east lake. Touchdown only mahomes. The big events are back and xfinity is your home for the return of live sports. Welcome back lets get some of your top headlines. Its great to see you thanks so much heres whats happening at this hour 17 states in the district of columbia have suing the Trump Administration they are seeking to stop it from revoking the visas of foreign students whose schools are teaching all their Classes Online a federal judge wants more information on the scope of president trumps clemency order for roger stone. The judge said its unclear whether the clemency clears stones probation time firefighters still trying to put out a bla

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