bank should have never taken jeffrey epstein on as a client as it agrees to pay a $115 million fine. confirmed drove cases in america have crossed the 3 million mark while the death toll has made the biggest one day jump since early last month. let's look at the markets as they double down on the concerns around the coronavirus and of course the economic impact the european markets had a contraction. decent forecasts for investors to rake through just highlighting some of the fears that many have had in the spike of fresh cases we are seeing in terms of the market action, we are picking up on the wall street trade and to european markets that reversed. you can see another modest decline. 1/3 of a percent coming off the benchmark. the sectors and the boards the ftse trade is down by .2 of a percent. it is a minimal decline. we're hearing further reports around consumption, any further scheme to try to support market businesses that has meant we are just down modestly this is what you are seeing down on the french market quickly it minimized its losses, too. now you can see 1/4 of a percent. the spanish market down 1.2 trying to flat line italy. pushing to the green still trapped by what you're seeing in the rest of the markets. the smi is down by 1/3 let's get into some of those sectors. you can see three patches of green. that is an improvement the basic resources up .2. telecon is rising and food and beverages. the banks right at the bottom, that is a strong reverse of 1.6% travel and leisure down more than 1%. real estate, one of the weaker ones, too, on the boards today in contrast to the red you're seeing in europe, chinese markets are on an absolute tear. we've seen the curve break out of a range a huge spike there's been a lot of cheerleading by the government to get behind the bull market as it's been described. keep in mind we had a small gain last week. it's such a stunning curve worth taking a look at the question is whether we're going back over history. the government encouraged investors into the market. we are wondering whether we are in dicey territory for some investors. the shenzhen 1% higher the csi wrapped up the trade yesterday 1.6% let's go to daniel morris. joining the conversation this morning. it feels as though there's a little bit of coronavirus that's set in with the fresh spikes that we're seeing in covid-19 cases. that's upset by a huge trade in the chinese markets. >> you know, i guess at this point you've had such rallies, u.s. equities looking for what the next surprise is going to be in europe. clearly at this point that's more likely to be a negative surprise all of the information around new cases and deaths not only in the u.s. but we need to pay attention to what's happening in australia melbourne locking down and australia a case that handled the pandemic successfully. i think we ser receive all of the risks around us. then you look at what's happening in china as you point out, the parallels are quite different. certainly seem to be there the only thing that is a little bit better is back in '15-'16 you saw a fairly significant distance between a domestic giant in the market and say, for example, the msci market went up very, very quickly as we know, the other markets not so much. so far you're seeing all three markets move in parallel if there's going to be a warning sign we need to be looking for, it's whether or not they're opening up a gap between the indices which might suggest things are driven by normal factories. >> daniel, we're on the cusp of earnings season for the second quarter. estimates declined at 43 odd percent which is staggering. do you think investors will stay away from areas that are bid up or are they going to double down in areas like technology and health care? >> without question, the best are the things that were stressed the most. weeks ago we were concerned about valuations if we were concerned about valuations a few weeks ago, you'll be more concerned now the outperformance in technologies in the u.s. versus the rest of the market might be at risk. they're seeing that they should go we've already, i think, anticipated it's priced in a lot of the longer term growth implications for the sector. in a sense that won't matter the investors are going to cling to whatever information they can get. that may be limited and a lot of companies will bring guidance. whether they will feel more comfortable isn't clear. whatever guidance we will get the markets will trade on that the other thing that will matter in the earnings, you get earnings from prices i think it is worth remembering that in the first quarter, analysts had marked down their estimates dramatically, the numbers were varied. there were positive surprises. what we need to take down is repeating the quarter, earnings down and not quite as bad as expected that's something that could support equities >> daniel, given the visibility that companies and management have going forward, clearly investors will be watching the macro data as the u.s. moves to pause various lockdown liftings and even reverse lockdowns in some places, should we expect the data to turn worse if it does, what does this mean for equity markets what's your take on what they're actually pricing in at this stage? >> well, i think they're pricing in a smoother path out of the lockdowns we're likely to see. in terms of data to watch, i would pay attention to the weekly jobless claims. i think we appreciate and you're starting to see businesses that are opening, not opening or if they're opening, having to close. we'll see what kind of impact that is on the labor market. what's driven the swings in the economy over the last six months has been a collapse of prices met. everything that's happened with the unemployment rate. if you see then initial jobless claims start to pick up suggesting that people are losing their jobs, that's certainly something that could pull the rug a bit we need to assess exactly what that means so far it's really been limited to not opening restaurants, closing restaurants, the leisure sector and dining services if you look at that part of the economy, 3.5% of the whole u.s. economy. even then, reversals and pauses in the lockdowns are not happening everywhere a decent part of the u.s. but not the whole population you're talking about measures that impact a couple percentage points of the u.s. economy it really shouldn't be meaningful it shouldn't necessarily affect earnings, growth or expectations for most of the market what could change is if they start spreading to other parts of the economy if you start seeing stay at home orders like you're seeing in australia, that's clearly a different ball game. more like what we went through in march and april that would be out of line with the behavior that we've had in the market over the last several weeks. >> just coming back looking at europe where the virus appears to be largely under control, how dependent is the european recovery on the u.s. recovery? in other words, if we do see the u.s. move into reverse, does that prevent the european recovery, european market reaction from turning more positive >> you have to think about the correlation between the two and like i said, it seems unlikely if you saw any kind of correction or downturn in the u.s. market that european equities are there the performance in europe has lagged by performance. that said, that might be where europe is better more restrictive, less in place for longer, hence, the negative positions we just had for the outlook for european gdp of the year the good news is they're coming out of the lockdowns now in a position that is arguably stronger and less of a risk of second waves again, we know that isn't necessarily going to persist, but at this point arguably europe is in a better place relative to the u.s. even though they've suffered more up to now. if you did see a bigger shock in the u.s., certainly going to hurt europe in the shorp term but it might actually allow european equities to outperform. >> thank you for sharing with us this morning daniel morris with us, senior investment strategist. in corporate news, more than 100 perspective investors are looking to buy wire cards holdings among the potential suitors is deutsche bank. deutsche bank itself has been slapped with a $150 million fine for its dealings with late financier and convicted sex offender jeffrey epstein new york state regulators said the german lender was guilty of significant compliance failures for processing payments to his co-conspirators and facilitating suspicious cash withdrawals. deutsch post dhl has reported a 16% jump in second quarter operating profits easily beating analyst estimates. the company deutsch post says it expects to come in between 3.5 billion and 3.8 billion euros. the medium term guidance provided that the global economy bounce back. frank apple said he's already seen signs of recovery across all regions. ahead on the show, u.s. vice president mike pence threatens to take a stand against tiktok as washington rachets up scrutiny we'll have that and other stories when we return i know that every single time that i suit up, there is a chance that that's the last time. 300 miles an hour, thats where i feel normal. i might be crazy but i'm not stupid. having an annuity tells me that i'm protected. during turbulent times, consider protected lifetime income from an annuity as part of your retirement plan. this can help you cover your essential monthly expenses. learn more at protectedincome.org . save without even leaving your house. just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. you can get it by ordering a free sim card online. once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just $15 a month. there are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. you're watching "street signs. christopher ray has accused china from using property and international theft. he added that washington will address concerns of the beijing in coming weeks. u.s. is investigating claims that tiktok did not honor an agreement to protect children's privacy. in the statement tiktok said it introduced additional privacy measures adding that it takes safety seriously for all users. u.s. vice president mike pence is vowing to take a strong stance against companies like huawei and tiktok. argen, tackling the privacy. there's been a lot of history here so the regulator has a playbook that's one thing but quite separate to what the u.s. government is attempting to do in terms of stopping access to platforms. >> reporter: on the privacy front you have the added layer, particularly from the u.s. side that this is a company that is observed by a chinese firm so the big concern here when we're talking about privacy is not just what data is being collected on american users but more than that, it's where is that data going to the concern from washington is that tiktok is gathering all of this user data and sending it to beijing and the chinese government is using that for whatever purposes it has tiktok says it doesn't send any american data to china, it's all stored in the u.s. and would never give any data over to the chinese government as well that really is the big concern when it comes to the privacy point. you have to remember, this is a bigger context you mentioned huawei there at the start. it's part of a broader tech battle we're seeing playing out between china and the u.s. what's interesting is with huawei, these are big infrastructure we don't want any chinese companies in our network because we feel that's a national security threat, but what's interesting is they haven't gone after necessarily internet services yet or internet companies. tiktok is really the first one and the u.s. may argue, well, we're just doing what china is doing to our companies, the likes of google, facebook, twitter blocked on the chinese main land. expect to see a ramp up. this is just a threat so far from the u.s it hasn't been carried out it could be a potentially big blow u.s. is a critical market. it's coming after the fact that tiktok has been banned in india. india is tiktok's largest international market that's a huge blow and the u.s. is also a major market if it gets banned there, it could lose a lot of users and revenue and that is a big concern. this he have tried to appease the international markets. they brought in an american ceo in the form of kevin myer, former executive at disney they're going to quit the hong kong market because of a new national security law. trying to distance themselves from their chinese company they have a lot to do and a lot of conversations with regulators to appease them and make them feel tiktok is a responsible company. >> it did seem that tiktok was trying to put distance between itself and the mainland but now the backlash from the united states is because it's a chinese platform is quite extraordinary. what did they tell us about user data there have been questionable practices in america around user data what does that mean in the future in terms of the global nature that technology has been? is that not going to be the case with borders going up with social media firms now >> reporter: yes let's just take europe very well karen, you know this very well, the gdpr regulation that came in, that was very much about protecting european union user data, making sure they have control, where it's stored, where it is being used borders will be put up it wouldn't be unusual if the americans asked any foreign companies working in america to make sure that data is stored in the u.s. and they can see where it is going. more and more there will be silos around data and how they operate. more and more regulation coming in the regulators over in the u.s. are discussing the use of data, privacy and are scrutinizing the big american tech firms as well their use of data. you will see that more than likely it will become a lot more difficult and onerous for these american technologies to operate around the world it is a huge company multi-billion dollar company they can deal with whatever comes at them in terms of regulation, they have the legal teams, they have the infrastructure in place that deals with the data centers, et cetera if there's going to be anyone who can handle anymore regulation, it will be big technology firms. >> it's quite stunning if chinese companies, we could be talking about gaming companies down the track, don't have access to other markets like the united states because there are fears about the data that is being collected, that is an extraordinary turn of events the single function on huawei, we're waiting for the u.k. about the level of engagement from the chinese company. it seems like the signal's all turning against chinese vendors particularly huawei being the one front and center for people that they've been watching. >> reporter: yeah, it's quite interesting i thought. it's been over a year and a half since the americans came out and they've been campaigning around the world for huawei to be blocked in a number of markets what you saw at the start was a couple followed suit with the u.s., the likes of australia and japan. others in europe thought we can handle the risks of huawei they recommended that huawei could play a limited role in the u.k.'s network has now reportedly changed its stance and that was due to the u.s. sanctions that came into place which is looking to cut off huawei from some of its chip suppliers using american technology to make the chips what gchq says, huawei has to look elsewhere as an intelligence organization. that's been a big change the u.s. has continued to pile pressure on huawei continued to back it up with sanctions. we're making a lot more countries look at these companies and turn away from them in the 5g networks. these are networks that will be next generation mobile networking equipment it's not just about high data speeds it's about critical data infrastructures. they're looking and going, wow, we're not sure given what the u.s. has said, given some of the sanctions whether we can trust some of these firms. >> like dominos with sanctions indications with software and security thank you for setting that up for us, argen. let's push on to brazil and the latest is that the president jan bolsonaro has tested positive for coronavirus this after he denied medical experts and downplayed the severity of the pandemic he experienced symptoms over the weekend but was feeling very well now later he was shown taking the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine brazil remains one of the worst affected countries in the world with over 66,000 deaths and more than 1.5 million cases and in latest developments from w.h.o., the organization has acknowledged there is evidence emerging of the novel coronavirus airborne spread. the admission comes after a group of scientists put pressure on the organization to update its guidance on how the respiratory disease is passed. over 230,000 experts said virus particles can float infecting people that breathe them in. in contrast to the previous w.h.o. statement saying they sink to the ground let's come to the latest on vaccines novavax has signed a deal with the government operation warp speed worth up to $1.6 billion it hit a 52-week high. novavax has now secured more federal funds than any other company working on the vaccine they said funding would help accelerate trials. this is a company that's never brought a product to market. a maryland company that's never had any product going to market. just from the u.s. perspective, trying to very much get a finger in the pie making sure it has access to any vaccine that could be successful. this is the latest one it's put-backing behind it is certainly significant. it hopes to accelerate any method to get that vaccine to 34er7bs if they come up with a successful one, they hope it will be very quick for americans. u.k. chancellor is set to unveil new measures to support the economy. we'll get a preview of his upcoming summer statement. that's after the break welcome to "street signs." i'm karen cho, these are your headlines. risk off returns the s ttoxx 600 follows wall street into the red. chinese markets defying gravity. the csi 300 hitting its high deutsche post dhl beat forecast with a 16% jump in operating profit they tell cnbc they have fueled surge. jan bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus. the nation's caseload crosses 1.5 million. let's take you to some of the market action we're now seeing as we move throughout the morning session. we have been a little bit risk off. the red splash is up on the board. moderately so. we tried to cut the losses from the start of the session the ftse trying to follow europe weaker investors are keeping an eye and later on trying to shore up the economy and wide ranging measures to support consumption, property market, businesses that have been hard hit the market in case we may see something that pushes the market north on positive news later today. french markets down half a percent. the dax is a weaker trade. all of this in contrast to a spanish market down 1.3% gains slim gains trending higher the smi also up. minimizing some of the losses in the last half hour of the trading session. let's take a look at what we're seeing on the ftse specifically you can see where some of the green is also falling on the u.k. stock market. british american tobacco and international drinks business, some improvers this morning. right at the bottom contrast wpp, big advertising group is down 3.8%. burberry reversing down 2.4. some of the big retailers like sainsbury in the red weaker trade this morning. u.s. futures this morning after a day yesterday where we reversed across the board, investors again taking stock of some of the negatives as we saw markets fall by 1.5% on the dow. 1% on the s&p and .8 on the nasdaq we look across as we count down to earnings season investors readying themselves for a weak set of numbers down more than 40 odd percent in the second quarter it will be about the statements and whether the pent up demand will trade late in the third quarter. gold safe haven trade has been very evident. you've seen it as gold has been hovering around the peak we bounce about 1/4 of 1%. a strike against job cuts is due to take place at the headquarters of airbus this morning. members of management are meeting union representatives. let's go out to charlotte reed 15,000 job cuts are slated there's been a push back by unions they've cited concerns around subcontractors and a message that sends across europe >> reporter: right, karen. 15,000 jobs have been announced by airbus with job cuts. 1/3 of those in france alone and half of those jobs in france would be at headquarters where are the strikes are being held this morning the union warned it would be an almighty fight to save those jobs it is the gravest crisis that the industry was going through, that it had to make tough decisions. the job cuts had been part of it the unions -- when the job cuts were announced, we heard from the french government at the time they put a support package for the aerospace industry, 15 billion euros have been put there, including 7 billion for air france they also have, of course, a stake, 11% stake when the job cuts went out in airbus, they said they were excessive. i quote the ministry on the day the cuts were announced. they say given the support measures that have been put in place, they were hoping that 2,000 out of the 5,000 job cuts could be saved so here we saw that airbus had to be deal with this headwind with the french government and the negotiations starting on the job cuts that's meant to be done swiftly. summer 2021. pretty swift process for the job cuts airbus said they would do a lot of these job cuts through voluntary redundancy as well as retirement, but they haven't ruled outcome pull sorry redundancies this is where the negotiations really will be focusing on, whether there will be some compulsory redundancies, of course, with a watchful eye of the union and french government. they're dealing with a whole wave of job cuts in the country. there are strikes at nokia, france, where they also announced some cuts. heavy job cuts in the country. some of the first social plans of job cuts being announced again and in france, the new french government having to deal with these announcements and job cuts and the repercussions on the economy. >> charlotte, you mentioned a couple of european champions, airbus and nokia french president macron has been producing european champions the u.k., significant developments as the u.k. chancellor announced fresh measures to work on the recovery they are creating jobs for young people, reserve employment with helping the hardest hit companies and reducing taxes the furlough scheme has seen 9 million applications the treasury is considering a vast cut of the a.t. for the hospitality industry which has only partially reopened. the chief economist at the global asset manages steven, it's been hard to get a handle on what the changes look like today if you read the copy so far we are waiting for the detail from the chancellor. what would be market moving in an announcement today? >> he's got to go further than the very comprehensive leaks to the media that have been coming out. obviously this job retention scheme for the young is quite important. it was quite successful, a smaller scale scheme in the global financial crisis worked pretty well for young people they're the ones getting hit hard with possibly permanent unemployment that's the first one the dat cut is interesting housing is not a big deal. also this talk of voucher scheme where we all get 10 pounds $15, $12 to go down to a restaurant, which is a very odd idea if he came up with that, i think there may be a few jokes about it in general the u.k. has seen to have a bad virus, lots of deaths we could see some significantly better use i think the data is going to get better and i think it's going to look a lot better in the next few weeks and in the u.k. >> a lot of points to pick up on, steven people are taking the vouchers down to the pub and capture it do you want to be stimulating that at this point we know there's been a cautious approach to get the bars and restaurants back open and covid crisis how careful does the government need to be about these catchy initiatives? >> yes encouraging people to go down to the restaurant and the pub seems madness in a way allowing them, that's one thing. actually giving them a 10 pound batch is seemed a bit bonkers to me the big news for the u.k. will be if the oxford vaccine works, they're going to release the results probably next week the signs are quite encouraging. that's a game changer. that could change dramatically the situation in the u.k. and the u.s., by the way, who have 300 million doses. it would be a massive medical break through with professor sarah gilbert would up doubt tedly be person of the year if she managed to pull this off that's something we don't know yet but that's something we're watching for. >> keep your fingers crossed around these, david. the copy market. you were dismissive here we've been talking about the transaction costs of changing properties just extraordinary despite brexit, the uncertainty in the plunge in house cries now might be the time. why are you so dismissive when we have seen a little bit of move in the home builder stocks earlier on this week >> i'm dismissive of it from a public policy point of view. if i waited a few weeks and i've had my very hefty bill cut so for an individual it's quite a big deal in terms of a genuine improvement in the housing market, all it does is allow people to have higher prices prices are already pretty high the housing market was pretty vigorous just before the collapse of the economy with the lockdown so the low interest rates are feeding through, will feed through if you look at the data, there really is pent up demand for housing transactions coming through so, yes, you'll probably do it. it will be warmly welcomed rather better off spending the money in other ways that have a more long-term benefit that might expand out towards improved trading and things like that rather than giving people who are buying a house a bit of a windfall i'm in favor of it for me personally, but in general i don't think it's a great idea. >> steven, i want to look at the hospitality sector in a little bit more detail. you already discussed pubs and the potential vouchers as part of the scheme that we could see unveiled, but we've already had a little bit of the early data come through as nonessential shops reopened football, the recovery in football was actually relatively weak in cities that were very densely -- are very densely populated with office workers because so many office workers continue to work from home so how much can we actually see this part of the economy recover if those higher paid office workers continue to work remotely >> well, that's a very good point. in the city of london where our office is, i've been in there once since the lockdown for i.t. reasons. it was like a ghost town of course, yes, all those highly priced restaurants are empty they're not going to go back if you need public transport, you're going to hesitate you only use it if it's empty. a capacity for an office of probably 25, 30% if you're going to inflict social distancing that limits the recovery there in terms of the overall economy, you know, total spending is not going to collapse because people can't get into the city or can't get into the centerman chester i think you have to realize until or unless we get the vaccine or eliminate the virus, many things will be con strained partly by supply, partly by demand what we want to avoid is an overall collapse in the economy. there will be some money in the hospitality sector for sure. you can't change the need to respond to the virus >> talking about this interim period, this bridge between now and hopefully getting a vaccine, a lot of the focus is around unemployment and whether onc these furlough schemes begin to wind down we see a surge in unemployment numbers and sunac is expected to focus those efforts on youth unemployment. i'm curious if we do see these measures come through how much this will actually mitigate the job losses that we could see towards the end of the year when these schemes roll off >> well, i think you raise a very critical point. the furlough's steep completely novel for the u.k you know, germans had something like this before, but nothing in the u.k. amazing scheme with 1/3 of the work force benefitting from it it was a stop-gap measure. there was no way you could run this very much longer. the question is banks have had an enormous forbearance. extraordinary, rapid reaction that didn't happen, by the way, in the global financial crisis it would be much quicker and much needed. the question is when that artificial support is removed, will we get a wave of bankruptcies, unemployment and so forth my guess is we're getting such a big uplift from the pept-up demand that will end up being sustainable. people will have to rebuild finances, corporates, individuals who run down savings and debts. there will be a headwind my guess is we'll be back to normal levels of economic activity by the end of next year if the vaccine comes, it will happen quickly. >> when do we need to stop worrying about debt? so far we've seen the chancellor take brittain's borrowing to levels should we be concerned as we continue to dig into the coiffeurs? >> this is a major issue for everybody and many analysts and forecasters, oh, we're going to get inflation, we're going to get rising interest rates. i don't agree. when i was at the treasury many years ago we actually looked at having a government debt target and i looked at the history. you have 300 years of history of u.k. debt and it's been all over the place. 350% of gdp, virtually zero. i could find no impact on economic performance from having a high debtor low debt i don't think it's an issue. remember right now, u.k. interest rates along with most government bond yields are tiny, 5 year yields and lower are tiny that's something we're going to have to see an improvement from the economy i78 proving and extraordinary measures running off so the debts will come down. the need for discretionary fiscal tightening, i don't see it not next year. certainly not this year. >> steven, thank you very much chief economist at bmo global asset management. coming up on the show, the u.s. passes another grim milestone as coronavirus cases in the country now top 3 million. we'll break down the latest outbreaks right after this just over a year ago, i was drowning in credit card debt. sofi helped me pay off twenty-three thousand dollars of credit card debt. they helped me consolidate all of that into one low monthly payment. they make you feel like it's an honor for them to help you out. i went from sleepless nights to getting my money right. so thank you. ♪ so thank you. ♪ ♪ now is the time to support the places you love. spend 10 dollars or more at a participating small business and get 5 dollars back, up to 10 times with american express. enroll now at shopsmall.com. you say that customers maklet's talk data.s. only xfinity mobile lets you switch up your wireless data whenever. i accept! 5g, everybody's talking about it. how do i get it? everyone gets 5g with our new data options at no extra cost. that's good. next item, corner offices for everyone. just have to make more corners in this building. chad? your wireless your rules. only with xfinity mobile. now that's simple easy awesome. you're watching "street signs. confirmed coronavirus cases in america have crossed the 3 million mark this after the country recorded another 50,000 new infections. the number of deaths rose to 919. the biggest one-day jump since early last month texas has reported more than 10,000 new cases surpassing the previous record spike set over the weekend. florida has learned the state could soon run out of intensive care hospital beds this comes after the sunshine state along with california, arizona, and georgia reported a jump in cases. but fewer than previously reported. u.s. president donald trump has vowed to pressure state governors to reopen schools and push back against calls to shut down the country again. >> we've really done it right but now it's time to be open, time to stay open and we will put up the fires as they come up we have to open our schools. from a psychological standpoint with respect to staying home any longer, you can't do t. you can't do it. that has great dangers also. so that's where we are we're not closing. we'll never close. you'll have certain areas that will have difficulty and they'll do what they have to do, that'll be up largely to the governors >> a number of fed board members speaking over the last 24 hours have taken a more cautious tone on the economic outlook. atlanta fed chairman raphael bostick said economic activity may stall due to the number of coronavirus cases. president in cleveland loretta myster said the uptick may stall the economy's rehabilitation u.s. colleagues will be speaking to james bullard on"closing bel bell". results for the second quarter coming next week they're forecasting profits will plunge 43% this will put the market into an earnings recession as lockdown measures continue to weigh over the economy. energy is expected to lead the way. both projected to lead declines. a quick look at u.s. futures ahead of the session trading has been going up. futures for the major market indices after losses suffered across the board let's bring in david kelly, thank you very much for joining us for the conversation. wanted to get into the earnings season because clearly the second quarter is going to be a strange one with lockdowns initially and the reopening with pent-up demand now as we expect forecasts from some of the corp rates, it might be a strange one what are you looking at from corporates >> companies are finding they have to provide some guidance. i think the analyst estimates have you too optimistic. partly because they're not getting guidance from companies and i think we'll get some ugly numbers in the second quarter. i think also a large note of caution for many of the industries that are most affected by this because the problem is that we've seen a partial bounce back but progress from here is going to be slow. in terms of employment, i think employment gains will slow down a lot from here because a lot of the industries that remain in trouble are going to have a very hard time reopening in a pandemic environment i think corporations are aware of that. >> i'm worried that they don't know whether they will continue. the top output, $600 payments that a lot of workers had received from what i've seen early on, many of the corporates could not forecast they're pretty good on the supply chain but had no clue as to what the demand story is going to look like aren't we going to have to lean into the consumption habits for the foreseeable future we potentially can't even trust those numbers. >> it's going to be hard to do that, particularly macro economic data, very hard to interpret and we'll look at unemployment claims to figure out what the trajectory of the market is. we expect a further coronavirus relief bill. i'm thinking we'll get 1 to $2 billion bill i think there will be some further aid for workers but the real problem is still the pandemic it's not a matter whether states reopen or governments need to go back to doing your thing if the virus is rampant, people are not going to be jumping on planes, crowding into restaurants, going to ball games. i think a lot of things that make america tick, the fun stuff in life is going to remain pretty much closed down. corporations will reflect that in the numbers >> david, in terms of what happens if and when we do get a vaccine, let's say we do get one later this year in the early part of 2021, when do we actually move past the pandemic? then there are obviously huge issues around supplying that vaccine to countries who need it. >> well, yes also there are issues of compliance in terms of being willing to take the vaccine and issues in the vaccine's effectiveness. some experts here have talked about be good if a vaccine is 70, 75% effective. you might need booster shots at the same time in the united states 1/3 of people said they wouldn't take vaccines if it was essentially chiefly available and they don't trust the vaccine. it will be a multi-faceted approach you have to mop up the pandemic. part of it, reduce the overall numbers in your community through testing, contact tracing, wearing masks, trying to bring those numbers down to very low levels. then you can leverage that by using a vaccine to further wipe this out i think that will work, but it will work over time of the course of 2021 those countries that are very good at controlling the pandemic now who can roll into 2021 with very low case numbers should be able to mop up the numbers fast but it could take you all of the year to get past the pandemic. there will be winners and losers in terms of who gets out of this first in 2021. >> who are the countries, the ones that will emerge as winners? germany sticks out as one that was aggressive on testing, aggressive on locking down they've managed the outbreak much better than many velds nations. >> that's right. also the east asian nations, south korea, taiwan, japan so i think they will tend to lead the charge. i think china obviously will also and then in europe there are some countries, as i say, germany. i think my native ireland has done a good job containing the spread of the virus. i think it's easier for an island nation to do that i think the united states will come in third. latin america and some of southern asia, countries like india, pakistan, so forth may not be until 2022 before they've really got control of this. >> david, pleasure chatting with you today. thank you very much for joining us on "street signs. david kelly. just a quick mention of what's coming up on cnbc later on today larry kudlow will join our u.s. programming. you can tune in to that programming at 13:40 cet as we are likely to reverse some of the figures i'm karen cho. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. you can get it by ordering a free sim card online. once you activate, you only have to pay for the data you need, starting at just $15 a month. there are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. 5g is now included with all new data options. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. it is the top stories. stocks and winning streaks coming to an end amid the growing coronavirus crisis in this country that outbreak hitting a grim new milestone as officials in one epicenter grapple with a massive surge in cases the trump administration pushing to get students back into the classroom as retailers brace for a new normal when it comes to the back to school shopping season it's wednesday, july 8th and you are watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc

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