Strong gains we saw yesterday bounce up 2 for the benchmark even higher for some of the major markets like france, germany and italy. All 2 1 2 to 3 the range. Wall street is shot for the 4th of july holiday. Lacking a little more direction, continuing to see a spike in virus cases. We traveled a long way good news on the addition of new jobs to the economy again, and also news around viruses, vaccines to defeat the virus so the markets at this stage just a little bit more nervous around some of the negative news what weve got on those individual boards, this is how it looks for the german stock market, about a 10th of a percent plus thats as good as it gets on the optimism youre seeing on these boards we are down 6 10 on spanish stocks 3 10 on italy and 12 in the u. K. And france it is a reversal in the strong gains we witnessed in the thursday session the sectors, lets xi how its moving about the top has been technology. Retail is positive construction material, utilities, travel, leisure, industrials all marking higher insurance in particular, banking stocks, oil and gas, too, a little bit of weak Energy Basket given weve had a decent bounce in the spot price. Brent has been strong along with w. T. I. More than 5 gains over the course of this week. Lets get into the Airline Space and see how they are fairing easy jet, the bright spots on the board. The weakness in ryan air, lufthansa, air france and you can see British Airways down the most in that session speaking of jobs, the u. S. Added 4. 8 million jobs in june beating estimates a second straight month and marking the biggest payroll in the period. The rate fell more than expected to 11. 1 , the hard hit leisure and Hospitality Industry saw the biggest uptika long with retail and manufacturing. But now the overall unemployment level, that does remain high with 31 1 2 million Americans Still making claims. President trump called the numbers historic adding the u. S. Economy is on track to grow above prepandemic levels we built the greatest economy in the history of the world, and we are now doing it again. And i think well do even better the second time than we did the first time unless somebody comes along and says, lets raise taxes on everybody and theyre raising taxes not only on corporations theyll just go to another country and theyll do just fine but theyre raising taxes on people and middle income people and theyre losing jobs. So you cant allow that to happen that will be all of the incredible job that weve done will go down like that it will be a terrible, terrible sight. It might even be a 1929 situation. U. S. Vice president mike pence also told cnbc exclusively that the increase in jobs was a result of the 660 billion Government Program to give loans to struggling businesses you see the jobs numbers today, nearly5 million jobs created, thats a lot of people that were sidelined and laid off simply because of this pandemic. And we made it possible through paycheck protection for those Small Businesses to find their way through to keep people on the payroll. And now theyre coming all the way back into the work force lets turn to the u. K Boris Johnson has been speaking shortly a short time ago in an interview on lbc radio. These are take away messages you can see the feed coming through. He said were learning lessons the whole time about this virus, which goes to the heart of all the new news we keep learning about coronavirus. The Prime Minister saying we are very much through the worst of the disease so far he says there will be time to look at what we got wrong. My message to people is to enjoy summer sensibly. This as we wait for news around the quarantine being lifted later on today and so far the transport secretary has been talking about those measures, saying that grace will not be a list of quarantine exemptions and the u. S. Will be on the list of highrisk countries. That is a comment around summer and summer travel. Also with the reopening of the economy this weekend, pubs and restaurants will reopen tomorrow so there are concerns people might race out to the pubs and also to restaurants, creating a fresh spike in the virus so warning there from the Prime Minister also around the epstein case, he says his sympathies are with the victims of Jeffrey Epstein he will not comment on Prince Andrew it has to be carried out in the involvement of Prince Andrew investigating the case in the United States. Johnson says no such request has been made from the United States to speak to Prince Andrew. Thats his latest comment on the case lets come back to the conversation and the economy reopening in various parts of the u. K. In particular Callum Pickering joins us. Callum, im not sure youve made plans for the weekend to grab a beer or a meal at a restaurant but were entering this reopening phase now for the u. K. What weve seen elsewhere is concerning a fresh spike in infections, jpmorgan has a tracker where various places where youve seen spending on credit cards for restaurants has followed three weeks later by a spike in infection should we be bracing for that here in the u. K. We just have to be very careful that things dont move too quickly too soon so far the u. K. Like other European Countries has managed to ease the restrictions without seeing a second spike. This is good news. Good as you mention now that the leisure industry, treasury stocks, people in a bit closely is the acid test our base case is at least in europe we will continue to get by with local measures and the pandemic will remain largely under control. But the second wave is the big risk to watch. And when i look at markets, we have here a vshaped recovery in equity markets, but its unlikely that we get quite the vshape in the macro even if things go well well probably see more like a tick shape, an initial spike, and then a gradual recovery. The markets dont leave much room for downside surprises in the Economic Data or in viruses. In that sense im a little nervous. There are a lot of variables around the second wave and how it was treated there was a feeling after the lockdowns we saw first time around they wanted to go back to a scenario like that because it may depress economic activity. Economists have come up with evidence, in sweden where there was no lockdown, consumer and behavior dropped aggressively as well to the same tune we saw elsewhere. So it doesnt matter if we dont lockdown in the second wave. Surely were going to get an economic hit if consumers are concerned. I find the swede curious. This is a small economy, highly integrated with the rest of europe and the Global Economy which did have a major lockdown. So its hard to imagine a situation where sweden could have done well given its small size and given how weak its trade partners were. I dont find that a particularly good example what i would focus on is the fact that we do know a bit more about the virus. Hospitals are better prepared. We have better medicine. We know what kind of measures social distancing measures work. We also have better track and trace. So our ability to manage a second wave is probably better than it was at the beginning of the year when the virus was new. But still, the second wave is the big risk and if we did get major countries putting nationwide lockdowns and again, i would very quickly imagine a situation where the world starts to look like it did in march that is, we worry a lot about credit problems. Cash flow problems, and surge in unemployment but so far so good, we dont see much risk of that happening yet. Crunching some numbers this week talking about the use of masks if there is mandatory enforcement of masks in the states in areas where youve seen a spike in infection, you may actually see the economies prove more resilient were talking about, in this particular case, 5 of economic output would be impacted if you had to shut down the economies again. Boris johnson a few minutes ago spoke about how we are learning from this virus. Do you see a mask wearing as simple as it could be some sort of salvation for the economy as we progress from here . Well, im an economist, not an epidemiologist. Of course, we have to listen to the experts. They make a very good case for using masks. Its also intuitive given the way the disease spreads. If we can get to a situation where we can learn to live with the virus and return economies mostly to normal, that is the best Case Scenario while we wait for better therapeutics, while we wait for a vaccine. Otherwise its going to be very uncertain that if we do get these spikes, we need the local lockdowns. And in uncertainty, in an age of anxiety, that is a difficult environment for businesses, for consumers, for governments to make plans for the future. So it would very much feel like we would be on pause before we get the vaccine. So if we can use masks to live with the virus, of course, thats a good outcome. But its not for me as an economist to say whether thats possible or not. Its a strange line of questioning when we talk about how masks influence Consumer Behavior thats where the pandemic has taken us to an extent. I want to ask you about markets. Clearly we are having these conversations behind the scenes about what sort of investments to make based on how the virus unfolds and vaccines certainly made a big difference earlier in the week to the direction of trade. Politics as well what do you do in the second half as you weigh up all these various elements that could bring better markets, but also pose high risk well, i compare two factors the politics and the virus trends in the u. S. We have the uncertainty of the election. We also have worsening virus trends compared to europe. Virus trends are improving the politics is for european standards, fairly calm European Markets havent run quite as far ahead as the u. S. On a regional basis. Probably we see a bit of value there in europe. But the big question for me when it comes to markets is what is really driving the market . It seems to me a combination of improving Economic Data and it is looking fairly good at least over the last couple of months the continued help from Central Banks and governments with their aggressive policy measures, and the fact that markets are basically working on the assumption that a second wave will not lead to major lockdowns in the u. S if we violate that assumption, then markets will probably take a turn for the worst but even though markets have run a long way, keep in mind markets are forward looking. They are basically telling us the underlying economy is fine and in the long run, we probably get back to the prepandemic trend. I think thats a fairly sensible assessment as long as we avoid the second wave. In the jobs report yesterday, kallum, back to the u. S. Economy, what does it tell us . We both had the reclosure of communities that weve been talking about. Restaurants opened up and then forced to shutdown do you think the jobs are going to come back quicker than many anticipate the u. S. Is a highly flexible economy. It has one of the most widely regulated markets in the advanced world typically if you find a snap back in spending, it usually shows up in the jobs numbers the economy is behaving as you would expect keep in mind in the u. S. , the big driver of the recovery so far is the very, very generous fiscal handouts, income for the household sector actually increased in april and a little in may. So households now have a little surplus income they were locked down for a while, they couldnt go to the shops. Now they are spending that money. Someone has to produce those goods. Someone has to sell those goods. Thats what were seeing now in the labor market the combination of the flexible economy, the aggressive policy is showing up now in the jobs numbers. We just have to hope that that data, which came before the recent spike in the u. S. , doesnt take a turn for the worst as does the case numbers spike in the next few weeks and months a lot of pressure on the data release. Kallum, thank you very much for joining us thank you senior economist. Banks that do business with chinese officials are implementing the Hong Kong Security law has passed the u. S. Senate the house of representatives voted on the law earlier this week, meaning it will now go to the white house where the president can either veto it or sign it into law the u. S. Government has been critical of beijingslaws and has begun implementing the president s directive to revoke hong kongs special status u. S. Vice president mike pence told cnbc in an exclusive interview that the white house will continue to introduce measures in response to the law. The National Security law that china passed and now is imposing on hong kong is its a betrayalof the International Agreement that they signed and ultimately it is its its unacceptable to freedomloving people around the world. And President Trump has made it clear that were going to be modifying our trading relationship and the trading status with regard to hong kong. And were going to continue to speak out on behalf of the people of hong kong and on behalf of human rights of people within china chinas Services Sector has expanded at its fastest rate in more than a decade, rising to 58. 4 that is up from 55 in may according to junes pmi reading. Export businesses showed growth for the First Time Since january. While prices in the sector were ending six months of discounts were going to squeeze in a quick break. Ahead on the show, well shuffle ahead. The french Prime Minister resigns asthma chron looks to reenergize his presidency. Its pretty inspiring the way families redefined the word school this year. Its why, at xfinity, were committed to helping kids keep learning through the summer. And help College Students studying at home stay connected through our university program. Were providing affordable Internet Access to low income families through our internet essentials program. And this summer, xfinity is creating a Virtual Summer camp for kids at home all on xfinity x1. Were committed to helping all families stay connected. Learn more at xfinity. Com education. Lets move on to one of the market darlings of covid19s story and that is a delivery here the growth doubled in the Second Quarter as people were forced to stay home amid the pandemic. The german Online Food Delivery company set off after a initial decline in the month of april as lockdown measures took effect. Order growth surged 94 versus the Second Quarter last year incredible spike in orders air phrase klm will present a Restructuring Plan according to multiple reports which suggest the proposal will involve 7,000 job cuts the carrier has received a 10 billion euro bailout from the french and dutch governments as two primary stakeholders the french Prime Minister edoardo phillippe has resigned i didnt know the Prime Ministers beard was a thing, but apparently the French Public have been watching this as a sign of pandemic as its ha grows grown, so, too, his popularity reporter youre right. The handling of the crisis has been positive for the Prime Minister hes been a popular figure to the french he was a relatively unknown figure when he was picked as Prime Minister in macrons presidency hes been by his side during the first reforms and protests so far. Now we have seen the Prime Minister has presented his resignation. A reshuffle had been very much in the cards and rumors going around that it would be imminent so especially on the back of the difficult or bad result they had in the municipal election in march, this weekend we saw this green wave in big cities, very successful, emanuel macrons party had pretty poor results in that election. So reshuffle was expected to give a new impetus to the presidency for the last two years of the mandate of emanuel macron so now whats interesting is that we dont really know who the next the replacement of edoardo phillippe could be not just a front runner. Its a crucial decision here for emanuel macron because the direction, the person he picks will be very important for the next years and the potential reelection in two years for emanuel macron whether hes going to go more towards the left and the green road that was successful at the municipal election this weekend or take a new person, an unknown figure like a few years ago. The key he says he wants to give a new path forward the next two years, a new way with a new team in charge. So we will see he said we will know the new Prime Minister in the next few hours, and then there will be further nomination for other ministries ahead also over the weekend. So well see, but again, a very important decision for emanuel macron which could be crucial for his reelection in less than two years, karen charlotte, thank you so much for this for us. Well watch for the announcement later today. The German Parliament has backed the Bond Buying Program it has passed a resolution saying the central bank provided adequate reasoning for the debt purchases. The requirement set by the german constitutional court. Lets go