Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240712 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2024

The nasdaq is tracking for its longest winning streak since december bob . Good news, were just off the highs for the day. The bad news is financials are again not participating in the rally and they need to to really move us forward. Lets take a look at the sectors, as you heard from kelly, it largely tech, semiconductors, internet stocks, the whole technical sector is doing well, Consumer Discretionary tech oriented to an extent, industrials flatter, generally underperforming and banks not even in positive territory by and large we told but the new high on the mega caps. I dont know if you realize how theyve rallied off of the march lows facebook is up nearly 78 , apple 75, amazon 70, microsoft and alphabet, even alphabet is lagging, 46 off of the lows, far outperforming the overall Market Software in general has become really important so if you look at right around here we see new highs in adobe and electronic arts, auto desk, service now, which is the Cloud Computing company. Thats down but a new high for that software has become very important in this kind of economy. State at home sti stay at home stuff, pool services, papa johns pizza, all new highs. That stayathome trades significant. You see how mixed the market is overall. Very tough picture for the ban banks. Thats for sure bob, thanks so much. Lets flip over to the bond market where Rick Santelli is tracking the action. Sound like rick bond yields, rick the bond yields arent necessarily weak today you can see yields are climbing a bit but the oneweek chart gives you the story. Weve drifted from just under 80 to the high 60s and were coming back again its range bound but it cant extend much beyond 90 basis points and if we consider that next week were going to have an employment report, look for rates to slowly move higher into that report. Mathematically many believe that report is going to look pretty good if we look at a two day of dollar index, we can see its given up some recent gains ffs up it was up 1 over the year and maybe the point is that the fed and many of the swap lines are finding much less interest look for the dollar index to slowly give up some ground at least thats the way the charts look for now. Tyler, back to you thank you very much stocks have shrugged off fears a trade deal could be in jeopardy. Our next guest said theres plenty of greed on wall street and you should sell it when you look and say there is plenty of greed on wall vestreet and you can sell it, what tells you that greed is abounding . Its one of these situations where if you take the pulse of the public, individual investor, whether you measure it by the record new account openings, zerofee online trading, the new small option activity reaching a record high, the activity weve seen in recent weeks in bank city stocks, all that really does sort of talk to the froth and when you step back and look at the market for the last several weeks, what you see is basically a market in the s p 500 that has carved out a range, alluding to what bob talked about, the financials giving up the leadership you have a number of stocks, the stayathome plays, very active public favorite that we have become overextended and the Options Market is basically telling you there is this fear of missing out going on in those names that can take the rest of the indexes higher so i want to get to how exactly you propose that people should sell the greed. But i do want to zero in on what your yearend target for the s p 500 is it goes to the idea that we are in some sort of trading range about 3200, 3230 on the up side and 29 and change on the down side right now were at the 3100 level, 3147 or thereabouts where do you see the s p ending the year we have a price target of 3,000. If you step back and look at the evolution of major bull market, we do think there will be new alltime highs next year, and we also think theres a possibility that you have the start of a major bull market sort of what you saw at the beginning of 2009 or if you go back to really the beginning of the financial age, 1982, those markets rose somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 very quickly off the bottom, likely done since the lows in march, but then there was a pause where the fundamentals caught up with the stock price and the way we see it now, between the challenges of the economic reopening, you know, and again this public enthusiasm that we do think is perhaps a bit too far, we do think there is, you know, time and reason for the pause given the fact that the uncertainty of the economic reopening hangs over the market lets get to the question of how tactically or in my portfolio i can go about selling the greed. Is it going long, the vix, on the idea that strovolatility is going to intensify or are there other tactics i should follow to do this . With the vix around 30 where it is now, it could go either way. Its oscillated very much in a range and thats a bit more difficult to predict but if youre a holder of some of these names that have rallied, 50, 100, 150 off the march lows and these names that have this slow mo to them, you can sell call actions against your long share for some shares 10 higher, 20 higher looking out over a couple months, you can actually earn very, very robust premiums and still have the up side to those stocks. You know, with the notion that youd be perfectly happy to have to sell some of your stock over a month, month and a half period we thank you. Kelly . The market is shaking off reopening fears as coronavirus cases continue to rise in places like texas, arizona and florida with a shift toward a younger demographic. Meg . Reporter hey, kelly, we are seeing those hot spots in those states that you mention. The case doubling time, the metro area are seeing those fastest rises have remained constant in phoenix, tampa, san antonio and austin those red states are the ones seeing the fastest courts, the green areas seeing the fastest slowdowns. States are anecdotally reporting a younger population making up the majority of those testing positive data from florida showediing th median age has declined from 65 in march to 35 as of the middle of june. There is hope be cited among governors that perhaps that will mean Better Outcomes in terms of hospitalizations and the death rate but we are seeing a number of hospitalizations go up among younger people in places like dallas dr. Gottlieb pointing out as well dr. Fauci issued a warning that we dont yet know if this will lead to Better Outcomes and he warned that younger people will then probably infect older people and overall he said this is an important point for our country. Heres what he said. Right now the next couple of weeks are going to be critical in our ability to address those surgings that were seeing in florida, in texas, in arizona and in other states. Theyre not the only ones that are having a difficulty. Bottom lien, mr. Chairman, its a mixed bag, some good and some now we have a problem with this coming as houston is warning its less than two weeks away from icu capacity potentially being exceeded i think one of the persistent hot questions has been how much of the rise in case counts, if any, traceable to the idea that we are testing more broadly, deeper, more people . How do you suss it out how do you separate the one from the other . The metric that Public Health experts use is the percent positive rate. So the number of people who are testing positive out of the number that are being tested so can you look at that state by state and thats why the focus isnt so hotly on states like california, because their case numbers are going up quite quickly but their test positive rate has remained about steady so thats not as big of a concern as places like arizona where the test positive rate has skyrocketed and that means Clear Community spread thank you appreciate it. Stocks are rallying with the is specific up 43 from the march lows consumer discretionaries, tech are leading. And well tell you the names aieing the biggest gns much more power lunch right after this at leaf blowers. You should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. And you should be mad your smart fridge is unnecessarily complicated. Make ice. Making ice. But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad get e trade and start Trading Commission free today. We have this pledge for people who want to walk the walk and not just talk the talk. Welcome back, everybody. Americans are snatching up houses new home sales jumping up 16 in may. Olick has a look. Reporter the numbers today showed a big jump in the number of people buying homes that havent even started to be built yet and a big drop in the number of homes for sale currently under construction all this staying at home has more consumers, especially renters, headed to Home Builders sales of new home sales dropped and rebounded immediately. Theres no question the second home has been a place of ref refuge people are rethinking whether they want to be in high rises with common amenities versus a home of their own with a back yard record low rates, urban flight has created a perfect storm for builders Toll Brothers said on the latest call, these earnings trends suggest the Housing Market may be more resilient than anticipated two months ago and the ceo of Taylor Morrison said the Virtual Technology they put in place for home touring has, quote, forever chainsnged e way we do business they polled recent buyers to find out whats pushing them to the new home market . Number one, Better Technology for Remote Working and home schooling. Second, simply more space and more individual rooms. So the question is how quickly can the builders ramp up production the problem is they stopped buying land when the pandemic hit and laid off a lot of their labor so theyre going to have to restart all of that very quickly to meet this very Strong Demand back to you guys diana, im curious about the juxtaposition about how hot the Home Building segment is and the lower existing sales last month. Thats more of a result of the supply of existing homes than the demand for them, especially on the entry level where millennial levels want to get in you talk to an agent in any neighborhood and theyre like give me a listing, i will sell it in a hot minute thanks very much, diana olick. The next guest says this hot Housing Market will likely cool off by the end of the year mark, it gos good to see you why the caution in. I think the credit problems are coming the federal government has put forward a lot of different policies to forebear for mortgage holders that might be having a problem making mortgage payments because of the covid crisis those programs are going to come to an end later this year as we move into next and its very likely well still have high unemployment the confluence of high unemployment and end of the forbearance means more defaults and foreclosures and foreclosure sales and that will put more weakness into the market there are some very solid underpinnings. Its just going to cool off later this year. Ive been watching prices but were getting to a point at which affordability is major, major issue. I dont know how people are supposed to break into the market without much relaxed lending standards. We want to stay on the right side of that line so we dont go through the housing bubble experience all over again. Is the scenario youre describing, would prices come down or are we talking about moderating gains does it depend on which part of the country . Its more moderating the gains. We might see some outright declines where foreclosure sales will are more significant. Theres a severe lack of homes, both in the new and existing market the existing home sales were largely weak because those are closings the new home sales are contracts. The closings reflect what was going on in march and april so its backward looking. Well get much stronger existing home sales as we move forward and be more consistent with the new home Sales Numbers real solution to the problem is ultima ultimately more construction, figure out ways to allow builders to put up more moments, technically Affordable Homes where the shortages are very severe this was a problem well before the crisis its only exacerbated on the other side of the crisis do you see any major policies, weve talked about zoning policies, how theyre starting to relax things in different neighborhoods across the country. Would you expect to see a bigger ground swell and what would that look like . Or is that still years and years away do you think . It not like the federal government can swoop in and say heres the silver bullet, were going to solve the problem i would expect more attention to be paid on the housing crisis on the other side of the election i wouldnt be surprised if there is money put forward to expand out like the Housing Trust fund. These are funds that go to cdfis and other Community Development organizations that know their communities and can help builders put up more homes, particularly the right kinds of homes. I suspect thats where the solution will come from. Let me turn to the broader economy, if i might. How dependent is the Economic Performance in the second half of the year on a renewal or more greater form of fiscal stimulus coming out of the white house and capitol hill and if the economy and the households dont get that stimulus, what are the odds that we dip back into recession in say the Fourth Quarter its critical, absolutely critical we have to give congress and the Administration Credit for being aggressive, coming up with several fiscal rescue packages 2. 4 trillion, well over gdp. Most of that will be spent and gone by the end of july. If we dont have another fiscal rescue package that starts helping by august, september, even assuming no second wave, i think the economy will have a lot of problems. The likely of a double dip is increasingly likely. Id be pretty surprised, though, if the lawmakers dont get it together this is an Election Year the president is sounding like he wants to sign something if we dont get it, we got a problem. Mark zandi, always good to see you. Sure. Peloton quickly becoming one of the hottest stocks on the street, shares up 200 from the march lows and they say its got more room to run can you still catch a ride on the bike plus Tilman Fertitta will be here to talk about what he thinks is the biggest risk to siss re power lunch next. Wherever you may go, lexus will welcome you back with exceptional offers on exceptional vehicles. Get zero percent financing and make no payments for up to 90 days on all 2020 lexus models. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Experience amazing uh, fifteen minutes could save you 15 ain . Or more on car insurance. I think were gonna swap over to over seventyfive years of savings and service. What, were just gonna swap over . Yep. Pump the breaks on this, swap it over to that. Pump the breaks, and, uh, swap over . Thats right. Instead of all this that ive already . Yeah. What are we gonna do with these . Keep it at your desk, and save it for next time. Geico. Over 75 years of savings and service. A lot goes through your mind. With fidelity wealth management, your dedicated adviser can give you straightforward advice and tailored recommendations. Thats the clarity you get with fidelity wealth management. Because the tempurbreeze transfers heat away from your body. So you feel cool. Night after night. During the tempurpedic summer of sleep, save 500 on all tempurbreeze mattresses. Welcome back to power lunch. Peloton hitting another record after cowen raised its prices to a record high 70 a share. They say the home fitness trend is here to stay calling peloton a pioneer in this new phase. Dock u sign, netflix, all charge head with reopenings todd, whats interesting is after the company, peloton, went public last year, it hit an alltime low of 18 a share. Its now at 55 and change. Do you think these gains are justified from a technical standpoint its interesting. In the low that was put in, it was quiet for a while. It was right in the beginning like mid march, march 19th when this began yes, we like it, we hold it in our growth strategy. This company was a first mover, succeeded in the online physicalness and social communities, unlike the other o ones like go pro if you look at the charts we mentioned, following that breakout of 35, theyre following a higher channel support. They dont face technical resistance until the 70s they hit it at a lower price bike i like to ride my road bike, o seema, but as a father of three kids, im thinking about the peloton. What do you think about a stock that is selling more bikes due to this workfromhome phase but its facing competition from a company like soul cycle and facing questions about its ability to scale its not just competition from soul cycle, its also facing competition from other bike companies, who are all forming their own studio offerings to help give a pelotonlike experience. They a pioneer in this space but theyre also opening up the space into a lot of competitors, mirror, tonal. This home craze is going to take off. If you think about it, most people who start a gym membership in january will abandon it in may. Most who start a fitness app in january will abandon it in june. That is the churn that peloton will be faced with for the rest of its life as a stock, but it has a massive obviously a huge potential there but it is going to face increased, you know, increased competition, not only from the stay at home but as gyms reopen. Right now they have all of the wind is at their back. Theyre going to have more and more wind in their face as the reopening continues. Huge potential. Well see if it translates into profits. Thanks for joining us today. Follow us on twitter and go to our web site for more analysis at trading nation. Back to you. Up next its up tilman tuesday. I dont know what they want to do, maybe they just want to put us out of business but obviously the governor and whoever else issic maing t imakg decisions, they wont e

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