Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20240712 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money July 12, 2024

Nasdaq nosedived the worst day since march. The lesson things got too easy. Everything was working every sector, the airlines, oils, health care, cruise lines, transports, blanks, retail, tech until a few days ago, picking winners, you know what it was like it wasnt like shooting fish in a barrel, it was like machine gunning fish in a barrel when it getz that easy, when everyone thinks theyre smarter than warren buffett, you know youre in a real bruising. A genuine roll back, and sets back the neophytes who only knew when you buy a stock, it goes up that logic has now been debunked this has wiped out a good chunk of the geniuses who crowded into the airlines, betting they knew better than buffet after he dumped the whole group so what happens now . If theres all this money being managed by novices who only know how to chase momentum, is it safe to buy before those get blown out . Dont have you have to way until the Hedge Fund Guys who missed the whole rally, come on our air and say i told you so . Yes and no yes, these professionals are absolutely going to come on and argue that regular people arent smart enough to manage their own money. It will sound scary and condescending. Theyll pronoun this is the beginning of the decline they have to do that because they have very little money in the market they need stocks to go lower and justify why theyve been so wrong. So take their grim warnings with a grain of salt. There are plenty of reasons to sell i can think of many stocks way too high, even after todays beatdown there are whole sectors that should be untouchable to you, yet theyve had a run from the bottom most of these gains need to be repealed that hasnt happened yet beyond the not so hot fundamentals, my big worry is the Shareholder Base you have a ton of investors coming off a wbig win streak and they dont want to hear the truth. So let me lay out whats safe to buy and what isnt, starting with the ones that arent. Starting with the groups that genuinely worry me lets hear it for the oils this cohort has had a miraculous run from the bottom, which surged from a negative 37 to 40 this week. The industry has recovered from the moronic price war between russia and saudi arabia. But as long as oil was going down, producers couldnt make any money with oil those prices. But with oil back in the 30s, our Oil Companies are in clover and ramping production right back up because they need to pay bills. Sure, there is pickup in demand as the economy reopens, but i dont think its enough. Weve got too much supply just sitting here once we open it up, price also be crushed so you cannot own the oils i didnt like them to begin with but even when you put that aside, most of the oils have tattered Balance Sheets and need the price to keep climbing you need to bail on the oil complex before your fellow shareholders do. Oil, its every person for themselves next up, if you own any travel and leisure stocks, anything even related to travel and leisure, anything going from here to here, sell we dont have a covid vaccine. We dont have customers. Whats the point of owning the airlines and cruise lines, the hotels and restaurants when people are hobbled by the pandemic and they dont want to go out, they dont want to fly, they dont want to visit. Walmart, home depot, target, and tj max but everything other than the Bargain Basement stores, sell. The bap banks, they need customers that borrow theyre getting away with tons of fees, and theyve got that risk free profit again, theres not enough loan demand, and the fed has set rates so low they dont make much at all. Wells fargo, Warren Buffetts wells fargo may be trimming its dividend say no to the banks. So whats worth buying youve got to be careful right now. You might want to way for a couple of days because maybe gamblers have a real bad mindset i know because i remember what it was like to be a novice investor and right now, there are millions of inexperienced shareholders who are going to be making the same basic mistakes i did when i got in this business. Many of these people are so new, theyve never lost large sums of money in the market, which means they wont dump everything after one bad day. Weve got to go to the casino. Theyre like gamblers at a roulette table theyve been playing black, and black has won every single time. Maybe over the course of days. If you dont know statistics, you think it will just keep coming up black. Because what happens when you spin the wheel it comes up black. Today it came up red theyres go to dismiss that as an aberration. But black might not come up tomorrow and heaven forbid if double zero does when these novices start capitulating, we can see it go back down. You should put your money to work tomorrow. When these guys are blowing up, youve got to buy something from them where is the best place to go . Companies that can hit their numbers regardless of how badly this economy gets hit. We have a second wave of covid breaking out you want stocks with good yields that are well off their highs. Ill give you one. Pepsico. It looked horrible today, right . 3 yield, good balance sheet, its doing okay. Nvidia, Artificial Intelligence, or maybe broadcom. You Want Companies reinventing themselves to become Something Better than a plain old Merchant Company like a paypal. Same goes for apple. That needs to be the hardware, right . Not anymore. Its about the Service Revenue stream facebook didnt used to feature shops, now9 does youve got to wake up and smell the coffee sometimes i want to say, guys, dont you get it i dont think they get it. Now, theres others, too how about nike thats a good one, as nike comes down, i want to own nike but in a tough market, you need to circle the wagons around a few good names that you feel comfortable buys and then buying more if they go lower, because they night, in case the neophytes are in there and those recovery places, sadly, theyre not recovering. I need to go to dom. Dom in new york, dom caller jim bow, buia from long island, new york. What are you up to . Caller thanks for taking the time to answer my call whats up caller my two to bes are ibr and o. Im a 25yearold longterm investor with a good dividend, and still dom, dom, dom, dom, listen to me you should be going for some growth i want to hear nike from you i want to hear maybe lulu after a quarter people dont like. I need growth. Youre young dont come to me with the stuff that jthe stuff im stuck with we call that an illusion this is just an illusion all right. Any way. You need to trade carefully. Circle back to the stocks you feel comfortable buying. The ones that do okay when the covid scourge is right back, except for this time its hitting whole new cities im sitting down with a ceo. And young traders have fought through this market. They dont seem to know the difference between a stock and a bond but first, as economies begin to reopen, wondering how retail is fairing . Something in my throat im sitting down with the ceo of pbh to get a read on the sector. So stay with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter have a question . Tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com. Or give us a call at 1800743cnbc miss something head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. Need better sleep . Try natures bounty sleep3, a unique trilayer supplement that calms you, helps you fall asleep faster and stay asleep longer great sleep comes naturally with sleep3. Only from natures bounty. You know, the chef here trained in france. Mmm, it shows so good. Oh hey, did you say you needed help with investing . Because i know someone whos really great. And you trust him . Totally. Yeah. We went to school together. Ill check him out on investor. Gov. So, whatll it be . Ill just have the burger. Before you invest, get the full report. Check out an investment professionals background for free on investor. Gov. Before you invest, investor. Gov. After a brutal threeday stretch that culminated in todays blood bath, how worriyi should we be about the epicenter stocks we covered the airlines, did the cruise lines, the oils, stay away from all those. Thats not a new theme but what about pbh heres a stock that got obliterated in february and march, before rebound thing week now its back down and looking weaker after the close fortunately we know how this business is doing. Earlier tonight, they reported a major earnings miss, sales down 43 . Most of the stores that selmer chan dice were closed for six weeks of the quarter, but what matters is how a business looks now. Lets welcome back the ceo of pvh. Thank you, jim. Manny, look, you know the analysts better than i do. What did they expect you have so many stores close, were in the middle of a pandemic to call it a major miss, which is what some of the analysts are telling me, is really to say that theyre not doing their job, not you well, look, jim, to be care to everybody, its in the Second Quarter, on average, our stores were closed for six weeks. And our customers were closed for six weeks. Thats about 45 of the business and if you think about it, for about two or three of those weeks in that quarter, we were being impacted by the pandemic as people were readjusting their lives. So the only clean month we had was february, and business was very strong coming out of the Fourth Quarter of last year. And the first month of february for us was very strong then we hit the wall in march, as you just described. And were just starting to reopen our stores now. Now, it is true the reopened stores are not putting up the numbers you would necessarily like well, theyre doing much better than we would have expected stores have reopened and globally, as our stores are reopening, ballistrick and mort, theyre down about 25 if you think about that, our north american stores, as we reopen them, are down 25 . In europe, its been a little open more than north america, stores are down about 20 . And in asia, our stores are down about 25 , and in china, our brick and Mortar Stores are flat at this point for the Second Quarter. So we think thats better than we anticipated when you consider all things that were dealing with. And the pressure were seeing overall with the clothes stores and its im pretty happy with the way theyve started to reopen keep in mind, a significant number of our stores, both here in the United States and internationally, are in significant tourist destinations theyre dragging down a big piece of what were seeing in our permanent population stores. So its a mixed bag. But were happy to where we have open sod far in our stores okay, manny, given that we dont expect anything that is explosive. Is it still business as usual . Well, in this environment, theres no such thing as business as usual. Lets talk about wholesale channels those stores in north america have been closed from 8 to 12 weeks. And on average, probably 9 or 10 weeks during the Spring Summer season the first and Second Quarters as they started to reopen theres inventory in those stores that have built up. Theres orders that have been canceled so the stores dont necessarily need fresh goods at this moment. So theyre not pulling goods in the Second Quarter as quickly as you would normally have them pull goods in the Second Quarter. Theyve got to sell off whats been in the stores the last thing we want to do is stuff the channel. So were managing goods, were canceling goods, repurposing goods, and carry some goods that are fresh and basic that we can remerchandise and carry them for next spring. Were doing all the things you would expect us to do to manage the flow of goods. But thats a big question well see in the Second Quarter is that wholesale channel and distribution but we have to clean that up so that second half of the year, those goods start to flow again. The only goods flowing right now is our underwear business in particular, which is very strong were replenishing those goods as the consumer is pulling them out. My understanding and what i see going on in those stores, theyre tracking they talk about their own trends, but theyre doing better than anticipated as those stored started to reopen. Manny, i hear everything you just said, and i say to myself, its a pandemic, has nothing to do with you. But you decided to forego your salary why . Not your fault no, its look, its the right thing to do fundamentally. Myself, my senior management, we fore foregorn our salaries. We have the financial wherewithal to pay people. So its not that we cant pay. But given the pain were all feeling, has reduced salaries, put people on furlough, some of our people throughout the world, especially here in north america, as a leader in the industry, as a leader with pvh, it was the right thing for me and my Management Team to do and we were really supportive of the effort you know, 2020 is going to be a mess but lets just cut through all the bs it is going to be a mess of a year and the key for us is to get through this year, manage our cash, get through this year in a good position, and be positioned from an inventory point of view, second half of this year and really go into 2021, competitively we can take advantage of this situation. We are going to come out much stronger than a lot of the people we compete with day in and day out. Theyre just not capitalized as well as us they dont have the geographics and the brand diversity that we have to withstand the pain everybody is going through this is going to be a painful process for our industry our industry is under attack its nobodys fault, but just the reality of the situation its not just painful in terms of business, youre taking part in the national day of mourning you issued a statement, taking a stand against racism why is it necessary to do, do you think . Is it because saying nothing means that youre part of the problem these days i think thats right, jim i think as our country is basically being ripped apart by systemic racism, and its resulting in too many instances of social injustice across the board. As a country, as individuals, as a corporation, we need to do better we are by no means perfect we can do better we have representation through all groups working at pvh, but we need to do better we need to do better from a recruiting point of view, we need to do better from a training and Development Point of view, and we need to do better when it comes to representation at leadership management positions throughout pvh. We have embarked on a journey. I think you know me, talk is cheap. Right we embarked on a journey that were listening to our black associates, with our Business Resource Group in pvh. Were meeting with them to better understand the issues that theyre impacted by we have numerous inclusion and diversity initiatives throughout pvh overall, thats always been an umbrella for us, and clearly this needs to be a focus area as we focus gender and Sexual Orientation and racial ethnic issues as well and get better representation in our executive ranks across the board we can do better and we will do better and over the next three mobl months, we will come out with meaningful targets and we will be accountable to ourselves and our stake holders to meet those targets in the future. And its not bs, jim its what were going to do and what were going to put forth. We just need to do better. I know its not bs when it comes to you, manny. And i want to thank you so much for coming on mad money. And thank you for explaining the world to us in many different ways always good to see you, sir. Take care, jim. Thats chairman and ceo of pvh. What you have to understand if you are thinking of selling, you didnt listen close enough hes the survivor in the group so mad money is back after the break. Dont miss my friend, scott, on this special night heres a look at what he is saying tonight at 7 00 p. M. , a cautionary tale from the woman in charge of the texas county thats becoming one of the nations rapidly growing hot spots. Plus, concerns about a possible shortage of fruits and vegetables well explain why. And nashvilles reopening hits a snag what the citys Task Force Chair is advising officials. All tonight at 7 00 p. M. Can i find an Investment Firm with a truly longterm view thats been through multiple market cycles for over 85 years . With capital group, i can. Talk to your financial professional or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your financial professional or consultant were committed to making college more affordable. , thats why were keeping our tuition the same through the year 2021. [student] i knew snhu was the place for me when i saw how affordable it was. [narrator] find your degree at snhu. Edu. After todays total meltdown, we have to ask, how was it so easy to have so many sectors with so little Capital First off, when you have millions of new investors coming in, that money is going to go somewhere, and its not going to go into index funds. Newbies refer to get rich quick. These new investors have no tolerance for high dollar stocks the aim of splitting stocks is over so amazon does a 10 for 1 split, Money Managers will pay the brokers ten times as much because of all the extra shares post split that pushed new investors into a cohort of low dollar amount stocks that can be pushed up when people buy en masse, at once they love, love, love stocks under 10 easy to move these new buyers dont seem to know how to read a balance sheet. I saw this at goldman sachs. I remember one day i was dealing with a new hire and this person didnt know the difference between a stock and a bond we laughed but when you get malls of neophytes buyers that dont know the difference, it starts messing up the market. As new buyers crowd in, im not talking about market manipulation, im just talking about people trying to pick momentum stocks. And then try to get out. Thats what drove the strength the cruise lines those stocks made sense if you ignored their hideous balance sheet. There are only three of them the trifecta once the stocks got the higher dollar amount this week, the real sellers surfaced. All three stocks collapsed, down double digits today. Im not surprised. Theyre not allowed to

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