Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240712 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 12, 2024

Alltime highs today and if you just looked at the market, you would have no idea, frankly, about the civil unrest across america, as thousands continue to take to the streets to protest Racial Injustice and inequality demonstrations last night a little more peaceful than on prior nights were going to dive into what could be a Tipping Point here in the u. S. Power lunch starts right now tyler, thanks stocks are at their highest level in three months as the rebound continues at a furious rate for more on the road back to record highs, lets get to dom chu. Hi, dom. Hi, kelly, lets talk about the massive amount of green youre seeing on the screen right now. As you and tyler mentioned, the vshaped recovery continues to move the dow industrials, 400point gains, about a percent and a half to the upside the s p 500, 3116, the level there. 1 gains there the nasdaq actually lagging for a bit now so far but lets take a little closer look at the nasdaq specifically the nasdaq 100. Because as tyler mentioned, were inches away from record highs. In fact, if you look here, we are just about 2 away from the record high levels that we saw earlier this winter in february for that particular etf that tracks the nasdaq 100. As for the sectors driving the action today, check out whats happening now with names like financials and industrials, leading the way high meanwhile, Communication Services and health care, the relative laggards in trading so far today. Health care, the only one in the red. And one last thing to note boeing shares getting a bit of a pop here on news that activist Hedge Fund Third Point run by dan loeb is taking a stake in the plain maker. That accounts for one quarter of the dows gains today. But remember, we are still around 57 away from the highs that we saw last year in boeing shares keep an eye on that one. Kyle tyler, kelly, back over to you the telestrator is back it is back. Im touching it, as well wipe it down. Dom, thank you so much the dow is on pace to close at its highest level since early march. Were back over 26,000 today whats driving the gains and what is wall street seeing that the rest of america might not be Michael Aroney is with state street Global Advisers and Scott Clemens, welcome to both of you. Scott, ill start with you and these markets. And you know, we had a great discussion last hour about how there could be lags in some parts of values and small caps, and so forth do you believe that or do you think this is all too much, too fast it does seem too much, too fast but at the same time, kelly, you make a good point. This market, as defined by the s p, at least, has been so narrowly driven that in reality, what were seeing is a tech rally, reflected in the major index of the s p 500 but leaving behind smaller cap stocks and indeed, leaving behind much of the rest of the index, as well if you look at the s p equalweighted index, same names as the regular index, just equal weighted instead of cap weighted, still down 11 yeartodate, while all of these Tech Companies are hitting new highs. There are opportunities in the market, theyre just not in that high end of the Tech Companies that have led this market higher so when you describe that michael, i feel more optimistic. Because i think, well, maybe the big cap Tech Companies started this and theyll take a breath and everybody else will catch up well, i do think that the good news here is that the highlights that scott puts forward are, in fact, true, but we are starting to see some shift in that trend, so of late, the equal lly weighted has stare to outperform the capweighted s p. And it does appear as though were seeing some catchup from the small and midcap stocks. So this indicates to me that the average stock is now starting to participate. And i think one of the more encouraging things that were seeing in the last few days is things like energy, materials, and industrials and financials start to catch up with this rally, as well, which signals to me that investors are getting more enthusiastic about the potential for a recovery the other thing that i think is encouraging here is that the positioning on the equity front continues to be fairly benign. If i look at the aaii survey, about almost twothirds of folks are either neutral or bearish. And lastly, you look at kind of 4. 7 trillion in money market funds, it indicates theres a fair amount of buying on the sidelines, as well so if some of this starts to loosen up and come online, you could see markets push higher. Scott, let me come back to you. You say, and this is also becoming more of a theme lately, that the most interesting part of the market to you is the smallcap stocks you know, as much as theyre still lagging to me, theyre very quickly becoming a consensus pick here. They are. And that worries me a little bit, as well michaels right to observe that over the past just week or two, rather recently, market leadership has begun to broaden out. Smallcap stocks are still lagging that and when you think about, this is a characterization, but one that i think generally holds, smaller capitalization stocks, more domestically oriented, less susceptible to the risks of an escalating trade war with china, again, more available to take advantage of domestic benefits and another stimulus package that comes out of washington, were just seeing a lot more opportunity in Smaller Companies than we are Larger Companies thats been true for some time thats not a new statement, by the way. But the often the case, Market Trends can go on for quite some time we may see that trend turning even right now fair enough michael, finally, you are looking to european and chinese equities and tips, which i think is much less consensus well, i think whats interesting is certainly with market volatility, that volatility has created some relative value opportunities and lets face it, kelly, there really hasnt been many of those as the market runs up and ahead of itself, valuations are a stretch. But whats interesting here is were starting to see some of these opportunities kind of pop up so europe, for example, with greater fiscal integration were going to get additional commitment from the ecb tomorrow in terms of monetary support, combined with what looks like a budding economic recovery, or at least off of its lows. Theyre cheaper than u. S. Stocks, so thats interesting. China, as well, kind of, were starting to see manufacturing output increase part of todays rally is certainly the surprise move in the Manufacturing Index in china overnight, as well, from a positive perspective. And the last quick thing on tips is that in the aftermath of the Global Financial crisis, given all of the fiscal and monetary policy, what was interesting is tips outperformed nominals 60 of the month from 2008 through 2012 so for those that believe that well see a rampup in inflation as a result of all of this policy, tips provide an interesting relative value opportunity right now. Or maybe even just less fear about deflation, which is what happened in that earlier time. Interesting stuff, guys. Thank you, both. Michael arone and Scott Clemens with some opportunities they still in these markets, despite the wild rebound weve been on, tyler, since the march lows. And speaking of wild rebounds, kelly, maybe none has been more stunning than that which has taken place among the retail stocks. Stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to coronavirus shutdowns and then now the protests on top, but the group is up 64 from its march lows and Courtney Reagan has more hi, courtney hi, tyler so you point out a couple of reasons why not all Retail Stores are reopened, still, were seeing some green shoots in the sector. American eagle outfitters putting up results today, lifting shares about 14 , now 15 higher there was strong online demand during the shutdowns for the brands, with about half of the teen Retailer Stores now reopened, executives say theyre, quote, extremely pleased with the store productivity, hitting 95 already of last years levels. Executives also calling out a fair share of pentup demand that they believe theyre seeing across all the markets the best productivity that hits so far in the mall, beating abercrombies 80 . American eagle denim exert, kontoor brands, those are up as well beaten down Department Store names, those are among those that are repounding here today and so far this week, with at least some stores in the fleets now open about a month or so macys up 10 today, 43 in one month. Nordstrom up 9 . Skbr and just 10 for the month but kohls, the offmall Department Store up a about 28 for the month. And then youve got canada goose shares those shares are higher today after reporting some results, noting stronger asia performance as well as stronger performance online and the quarter theyre in now is actually seasonally pretty small, if you think about selling all of those winter coats. Back over to you thats for sure courtney, thank you. Courtney reagan with the rundown there. Coming up, financials and industrials are leading the market rally today with health care lagging its the only sector in the red, but its the closest sector to reclaiming record highs. Well tell you where traders are finding the best buys in that group. And as we head to break, check out some of the stocks hitting new highs across different sectors today. Lowes, ebay, zoom video, lululemon, all up in that territory. Theres much more power lunch right after this what do you look for when you trade . I want free access to research. Yep, td ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Mhm, yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. Now offering zero commissions on online trades. We charge you less so you have more to invest. Sawithout evenon yoleaving your house. Just keep your phone and switch to Xfinity Mobile. You can get it by ordering a free sim card online. Once you activate, youll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just 15 a month. There are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. Get a 50 prepaid card when you switch. Its the most reliable wireless network. And it could save you hundreds. Xfinity mobile. Welcome back while the market rebounds, the path forward for the u. S. Economic rebound remains a little more in question as reproach the 2020 election, especially for black America Steve liesman has a closer look in the latest cnbc states of play survey. Steve . Kelly, thank you. Yes, the National Data on the states of play survey show africanamericans more concerned about the coronavirus, more concerned about the economic shutdown effects than either white americans or the nation as a whole. Take a look at our first chart here you can see the 28 26 nationally say the economy now is excellent or good, just 5 of africanamericans. Similar numbers on the outlook with just 16 of africanamericans say that they are very or somewhat confident in the economy, in the next year that compares with 38 overall turning to the health issues, a key issue here, how concerned are you about the virus itself 92 of africanamericans compared to 69 overall and 64 of whites. And then a lot of that seems to stem from an actual connection that africanamericans report to the virus. 61 say they or someone close to them has been diagnosed with the coronavirus. Areas where other areas where theyre more likely to be concerned, lack of ppe and testing, social distancing, a second wave of the virus and also a recession in fact, kelly, i was crunching the numbers here, and africanamericans are more likely to be concerned about things like the unemployment rate, the recession, and getting sick than even white democrats its not just a Party Identification thing, these are specific issues weve identified here that are specific to the africanamerican community, where theres greater concern and the question is whether or not were going to be addressing those issues and so many of there, like you said, the economy, the safety and so much more. We appreciate it, steve liesman, thanks so much tyler . All right, kelly and steve, thank you. My next guest says the country is on the verge, potentially of an economic Tipping Point. And when shocks begin to multiply like the pandemic and the civil unrest that we are seeing right now, recent history or at least two points in history historecent history suggest we could be on the verge of a lasting and political course correction. Lets welcome in jerry cy with the wall street journal. Ill tell you a little story and well start the conversation the other night i was talking with my son, who is exactly the same age now as i was in 1968. And i was talking about some of the things that happened in 1968 and i said, america was never the same afterward and the next day, you wrote a column that basically said the same thing thats why i thought it would be great to have you on why are you persuaded that mismore like 1968 or 1979, which then came and you shouldered in the reagan area in 1980 and not some just spasm through which we just go back to the status quo its an interesting question and nobody knows the right answer the way i started to think about this was, if you think about points in history where the country really shifted course, its not because of one shock. The country gets shocked a lot it seemed to me it was at times when the shocks piled in one on top of the other and you mentioned 1968 and this feels like 1968 why . Because you had a vietnam that was going badly, the tet offensive, which shocked americans. You had a president Lyndon Johnson who said, im not even going to run for reelection you had the memory of a dark summer, a hot summer, in 67, with racial tensions in the air. And then you had the real coup de grace, which was assassinations, Martin Luther king followed by robert kennedy. And i think that left a lot of americans you know, i was in grade school at the time, but i remember it very well, people felt, the wheels have come off the cart, weve lost control and thats what really produces, i think, a change in the political system and thats kind of what it feels like now you have a coronavirus shocked followed by depressionlike economic numbers, followed now by unrest across the country and its the one after another after another aspect that i thought made this feel like that and then you pointed to 1979, when, of course, the hostages were taken in iran and there was a great wellspring of feeling, that whole situation had been mismanaged it was being handled weakly. And then in the 1980 election, carter was kicked out and in came Ronald Reagan one difference that i detect now, jerry, from 1968, and even from 1979, is the dysfunctionalty of congress. Back then, there was a center in american politics. Right now, it doesnt feel like theres much of a center at all. You have extremes on the left, you have extremes on the right, and not much in the center nobody seems to be talking or willing to do business with one another in good spirit, if good faith. I think thats right. And i talked to ron chernow, a historian, and he made exactly that point, that one of the differences now is that the killing in minneapolis that set off the unrest happened at a time of particular economic excuse me, of particular political dysfunction in this country. That the systems not working. You dont have democrats and republicans coming together in rooms in the capital right now to talk about what do we do about this they barely talk to each other the president and the speaker of the house cant even stand to be literally cant stand to be in the same room with each other. And so you have a shocking situation, and i mean that in terms of multiple shocks, at a time the political system doesnt seem to be able to come together very well and i will add in a footnote that there were three big stimulus packages that passed Congress Since the yes unrest started i was just going to say the same thing and yet, congress did come together to put together three big stimulus packages in the trillions of dollars, presumably because politicians understand one thing. Voters will kick them out if they feel they havent done something. And here, both of them, both sides had an incentive to do something and do something very fast, because they saw the stakes right, exactly. And the stakes were enormous and steps that were required were equally enormous. And lets be honest, as cynical as i am, sitting here in washington about this system, it rose to the occasion earlier this year. So maybe it can do it again and maybe we should not despair too much its an ugly process you wish that it was a little smoother than it is. But, you know, the democrats and republicans have shown they can do this when they want to. And maybe in this environment were in now, they will have to do it again. Thats a possibility one of the things, though, that i think that you go back to 1979, you had in that situation, and i just finished writing a book about how that year set up the whole reagan revolution. You had series of shocks, you had stagflation, that was an economic shock you had gas prices that were through the roof and gas lines, that was the result of an energy shock. And you had an external shock in iran with the hostages taking over the u. S. Embassy and seizing diplomats there. Some of these things are just shocks that nobody can control and nobody in congress or anywhere else could do much about the oil problem that resulted from the iranian revolution so some of these things are just beyond peoples control. But i think the political impulse is still, lets do something to change course, because we have lost control and thats, i think, the Inflection Point we may be at now. Its very interesting of course, 1979 and the aftermath of that, you lived th

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