Have been a major swing. Check out what Lloyd Blankfein tweeted. Hospitals are not overwhelmed. Most will be exposed anyway since we cant sequester until there is a vax is a Public Health benefit from broad lockdowns worth such extreme damage to livelihoods and what is more important, the potential human lives lost which are, of course, very important or the toll on the economy and possibly irreparable damage to the economy. Tim seymour . Well, look, now, if you think about where lloyd was on april 24th, i follow him on twitter, by the way i doesnt tweet that often and when he does, hes got something to say and a month ago he was saying im not so sure its wise for states to be opening but thats why we have a federal system where states can do what they do and was somewhat critical of georgia. Here he is coming in and talking about a more populous line theres politics attached to this i think theres economics attached and fascinating its whats happening and do think Lloyd Blankfein jumping in when some might have expected him to be one of the folks we h weighing on a more conservative tone to lay low and let the virus be the number one concern, hes saying, the economy might be the number one concern right now and lloyd is someone we all listen to. The point you made earlier on our call to get ready for the show was interesting and that is, lloyd is a registered democrat that is a known fact and so for him to come down and break down sort of the political divide, unfortunately, the issue of reopening the economy became a political one and so he sort of breaks down those barriers at this point, dan nathan, and maybe well have a much more robust discussion about the cost to the economy, the cost to live. Lively45 live livelyhoods and all these things we need to weigh who is going to get sick the political one is a curious one. I look at this view, this tweet from blankfein its kind of bandwagonish. I dont think hes saying anything that most people dont already feel and so to kind of make it a political thing is kind of goofy. New york is one of the hardest hit and its a blue state. California also a blue state took some pretty significant measures even earlier than new york state and represent 25 of the u. S. gdp. I think its a goofy political argument everybody wants to get back to business everybody wants to get to normal the quarantine and shelter in place was to avoid a Health Crisis bigger than what we would face as far as the deaths from the virus and we have successfully done that i think everybody is in agreement. We need to get out of our hopes and back to work and be safe bit. I think there is a sense of irony, though, that the people who are waving the flag the hardest to get back to it are the very ones who will not listen to the scientists and will not wear masks and do social distancing. So, you know, well find ourselves in a very weird situation for the balance of this year until we get more therapies, you know, and really progress on a vaccine so i think investors who are thinking about this through the stock market lens should be fully prepared for flareups and potential further lockdowns and that is the real worry i will say as far as risk assets are concerned for the second half of 2020. I guess i bring up the political aspect only because if it does seem that everybody is sort of getting behind this message at this point. It does seem that way that thats sort of the prevailing sentiment that perhaps what the stock market is riding on, b. K. , is not justhope, i mean. Its sort of like we are here and we have made it to the other side and isnt that a reason for the stock market to be higher . Yeah, certainly i think thats one reason why as people have kind of looked through the valley as the cliche goes and said, hey, were on the other side of this the country has reopened, by the way. It has reopened the whole country did not even shut down all that much. I dont think were going to have a lockdown ever again this this country based on people im talking to, what i see, i dont think you lock this country down again. I think we have one giant wave as we go for herd immunity is really the choice weve made whether its political or not, thats the choice that weve made so investors have to be prepared for that and if the investors are saying, hey, listen, as long as these companies can hold out until we get back to some kind of normalization, then, all right, then ill hold on to these stocks but if you dont think that thats going to happen, if you dont think the liquidity will be there then have you a problem with the stock market. Remember, i am sympathetic yep. No, i was going to say, you know, you mentioned herd immunity and the notion of a giant wave the interview with Ricky Sandler on squawk on the street. He wrote this open letter and at one point maybe we should all try to accomplish herd immunity. He could see a world in which there are concerts where young people go and catch the virus and develop herd immunity. Does this pave the way for investors to accept, you know what, i mean, if this is it the outcome were going to go for and were going to brace for this wave and so therefore when it comes to the coronavirus and the pandemic being an impact on a trade, its much easier to sort of die jest if thats the base Case Scenario youre factoring in i think weve digested a lot of this scenario already and when you think about that, you know, weve gone luann earnings season largely completed. In some cases florida cap tech land stabilization, those types of words were used so investors and the market are looking at three things, theyre not looking at 2020. Theyre looking at the end of 2021 and thats how were all doing our earnings multiples at this point and fair, fair enough, thats it. 2020 is a mulligan central bank mania so the fed is out there, powell is basically continuing to talk about his bazooka much like paulsen did and a case where weve had this enormous fiscal and monetary response, monetary outweighed fiscal. Fiscal decent. Threats of more fiscal or maybe more and finally a case where whats going on in the economy and what weve seen in china is that you get a pretty quick snapback but then you start to level off and that, in fact, you are starting to see some of the pain of a lot of companies actually, you know, coming back at 70 of where you were is awful, all right so i think that back to herd mentality. Back to what we do should we be here on the stock market probably not but we have donethis with Central Banks before and i think largely removing at least the credit obstacles that were in the market is part of why the market is able to now take that next step forward so i think weve i think the markets in herd mentality and dan referred to well get on with it and there will be some painful moments here in the next six to eight weeks if not six to eight months as we realize were not coming back and our kids are probably not going back to school makes my kids happy but i bet the fall is very different than last fall. Dan yeah, i just think that the difference this time to the last crisis is that the economy is fundamentally changed. To tims point youre lucky if youre a business and youre coming back at 70 of your prior revenues the way you have to sell your products and Services Going forward is going to be totally different. The costs are going to be higher youre going to employ fewer people so i think what the market doesnt discount right here is the fact that, fine, we may not get slammed with a second wave we may not have further lockdowns but until there is a vaccine the economy is different. There are going to be way more people unemployed. That means way less Discretionary Spending here and so i just think theres just no focus on that whatsoever so we may spike up to 25 unemployment we are likely to settle in somewhere for the balance of 2020 and 2021. Somewhere double of where we were at 60year lows just five months ago on the unemployment you tell me that you get a v reversal in the economy like that youre lucky at 2021 if we are back to prior levels and the s p 500 is trading over 20 times 12 months out p e right now well above the 17 average over the last 5 years and 15 average over the last 10 years so at some point i think the market is clearly v reversed i dont think theres anyone on the program that didnt think that would happen at some point. Its just overshot largely because of that bazooka then the uncertainty about the economy. At some point it will seem in this summer, i suspect. Were just Getting Started on this special edition up next tackling four more big money stories from this week including wild moves in biotech and the china factor coming back into play in a big way tuheweat and much more wn rern yes. The first word to any adventure. But when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. To putting your true colors i geh. Common bird. E. Ooh look over here something much better. There it is. Peacock, included with xfinity x1. Remarkable. Fascinating. Very. It streams tons of your favorite shows and movies, plus the latest in sports news and. Huh run the newest streaming app has landed on xfinity x1. Now thats. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Xfinity x1 just got even better with peacock premium included at no additional cost. No strings attached. Just say peacock into your voice remote to start watching today. Some major news from moderna. But up by 20 the futures themselves are picking up. Moderna, the stock of the day, that pharmaceutical giant that announced promising results, early results and its vaccine trials just announcing a secondary offering. The vaccine were to be successful, the stock would be 30 higher where it is now and it would be a better time to do a secondary so label me skeptical. Story from stat news getting some attention this afternoon. Potentially moving stocks, the headline vaccine experts say moderna didnt produce data critical to producing covid19 vaccine. Moderna, of course, finishing sharply lower. We stand by what we say we felt the Company Following the results that it was prudent for us to add to our resources and invest directly from our Balance Sheet. Even though its a small number of individuals and its the first step in a multistep process, it was still very encouraging. And there you have it, story number four this week, moderna taking wall street on a wild ride this is the ultimate hope trade for the markets. For the economy. Were all hoping for a vaccine what do you make of this trade weve seen this time and time again with smaller bioteches moving closer to some form or fashion of a vaccine well, right, and this vaccine clearly whoever comes one the first one, its going to be a blockbuster vaccine for them so, you know, we saw a lot of hope on this theres eight out of eight some doctors say that that seems to be pretty good. But its eight people. So youre subject to these things, stories we saw, maybe there werent enough people. I took stats 101 if you only have eight people in your sample size thats not really statistically robust, nonetheless i am hopeful i want to go outside b. K. Likes to play outside so im looking for that but in terms of investors, this is just pure hope right now. Nobody has any idea whether or not this is going to work. If it does work, can they manufacture it how long it takes to manufacture it who, is going to be the first people to stick this thing in their arm and see if they get sick, oh, yeah, by the way, we need it for a couple billion people. Oh, and by the way, governments want it for free i mean we dont know how much money these companies will actually make if anything on any of these vaccines. When you take a look at billions of dollars in market cap, three or so in the case of astrazeneca or moderna, a 20 stock pop, tim, you have to back up and wonder, is that market cap being added . Is that even going to come into play when the Company Releases this product in terms of making money . No, because and as i was Reading Research reports on that day on especially also with the secondary, they were raising that extra 1. 3 billion to work towards the actual dosage, not only to complete the testing, and then they Start Talking about a billion doses at 10 bucks a pop and, wow, this could be a 10 billion revenue for the company. I mean, that kind of calculation is really irrelevant right now moderna was s p option nationaln the same way gilead three or four weeks ago on this show was. So it was a case where i think, you know, if you look at all of the biotech news, its news for humanity i look at the ibb which used it as your proxy, the etf, six or seven largest biotech names that make up the top 50 , that stock, that etf was trending higher for the last year. Biotech stocks in an environment where people have been concerned about Balance Sheets and people have been concerned about earnings, you know, regeneron, amgen, gilead even with its issues with hiv drugs that have seen their best days, these are still cash flow Generating Companies and these are still great Balance Sheets with a fair amount of optionality. Thats why i think youre buying biotech before covid19. Thats why you should be buying them now and basically moderna, gilead, abbott, you name it, astrazeneca, s p options for the market. For right now, dan, tim brings in a good point the trend prior to the pandemic, prior to this whole notion of a vaccine coming about, but given that theres some froth. When you talk to michael at jefferies, he said the flows have been strong in the past few weeks and believes that most of that has been Retail Investors we cans, in other words. Thats a great point. I was on that night when we had him on and, you know, when you think about it, i think bku is the term hopium stocks are supply and demand it was a teenager in february and then it traded as high as 85 after the news came out that they had, you know, possibly some good data on this vaccine give the people what they want they want to buy your stock, sell the stock to them they did it in a big way they put 1. 2 billion on their Balance Sheet which basically ensures their survival no matter what happens with their success on this vaccine. Lets hope that its good data lets hope it was on the up and up, the whole process, i dont know how you can argue against that one last point ill make, if youre looking at the Options Market, the expectations for movement continue to be just crazy off the charts looking a week out, the Options Market is implying about a 10 move in either direction looking a month out its looking like a 25 move in either direction so my point to retail would be understand what youre buying, you know, tim just said optionality, those are very expensive options especially after a stock has moved 250 with very little data yeah, i actually think thats a great point that dan brings up youre talking about something thats going to move 25 in multiple weeks if youre out there as a Retail Investor and just did a story about how some people are taking their check from the government, putting it into the market, youre just ladling on top of this if youre going to be playing options, youre ladling on leverage on top of an already volatile underlying stock here, so to me, its extremely risky its a Lottery Ticket at this point in time but i do think tim makes a good point this is like a call option on the s p 500. So to me if im going to do that why not just buy the s p 500 calls with the vix down here below 30, much better way to play it. Coming up the countdown continues with the three cs. Were talking china, Corporate Taxes and commutes this special edition of fast money is back right after this. This is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Welcome back to this special edition of fast money. Two down, three to go, but got to take a fast break it is memorial day weekend so i have to ask, is anybody have travel plans tim, going anywhere . Im going to be wearing out a path between my house and my smoker i know you like to do a nice 13, 14hour brisket smoked very slow, very slow on the smoker. Kind that have oldfashioned choochoo train. Thats what i do and thats what memorial day is all about in my house. I wouldnt be going anywhere anyway and this year is extra focused i have a 16pound brisket. I think it will take me 12 to 13 hour, take the over under chilling bud wisers along with that, waving the flag, drinking. Thats memorial day, right thats what we do. Dan, ive seen some pictures of your barbecues. They look awesome. I dont know if that will happen this weekend you know, mel, our invite must be in the mail. You know, because tims barbecue sounds amazing. Its on its way. Mine is more sentimental. Tim is just going to do the beef and the beer you know, im missing my parents here i havent seen them in four months im going upstate. Ill see my parents, my sister i think my nephew. I think this is one thing we kind of as a species kind of hit a breaking mountain of being kind of caged up at this point, it speaks to what we were talking about earlier in the show, were ready to go out, interact with other people but got to be safe got to wear a mask and do the hygiene and social distancing, that sort of thing and that will be the real test for this country, you know, we did a great job in the lockdown for the most part and flattened the curve and got to a point where we can kind of handle this thing as we move towards herd immunity but now its important actually to reconnect with our loved ones and, mel, im missing you. I havent seen you since february maybe well get a smoked brisket and bud widers going this sumer. This has been the longest period ive been away from you guys ever. I mean in however many year, 13 years and it really hurts i really feel it its not the same. Its nice to see your shiny face, b. K. And love to see the dog run around in the background but not the same as being facetoface yeah, its not the same and ellie and tallulah want to be on tv they think theyre superstars. It is not the same you know, like dan said as human being