Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 13, 2024

Over to you. All right tyler, thanks very much. All three of the major averages are hanging onto their gains in the month of may tension escalating with china. My theme is still intact thats a broadening of the rally. This is in stutter steps you get a day like today where you pull back a little bit but not numuch obviously, some of the china etfs, thats first one down today on concerns about whats going on in hong kong. Look at the leadership this week russell. Its been bank stocks and Energy Stocks oil is on the downside thats what i mean those groups have been leadership stocks here look at these china stocks we did get alibaba thats down concerned to whats going on hong kong what was down, transports, russell down the nasdaq, the big tech names is under performing this week. This is rotation this is broadening out of the market that trend continues if you look at individual secto sectors, banks were behaving horribly they are outperforming this week so the Energy Stocks even though down today health care was a market leader. Its lagging thats broadening opinion thats market rerotation going on here today. On the upside dramatically were expecting more back to you. Have great long weekend. The Corporate Tax rate i would move back to 28 we had proposed at 28 i want to make sure we see that these corporations, thats not going to take them under what happens to stocks and corporate profits if rates go up and biden takes a tougher stop signs on Corporate America across the board maybe more regulation and some antitrust maneuvers i could just go on and on ron about all the things you do. Lets leave it there at that guys, with all due respect here, obviously, were going to Start Talking politics and the race and so forth but discussion about rising tax rate, raising them on corporations or whatever does feel to me, a little practi premature based on where we are in this economy. I agree with that i think its an important topic to start to think about. Were within six months of the election and if you do look at sochl t some of the polling, youre starting to see a rising probability you could see a democratic sweep our political analyst has pretty much as a toss up between a democratic sweep or status quo i think its an important topic. If you see the rates go up, it could be a negative or head wind Going Forward. Thats really maizing, larry. You say on the one hand the top probability is a democratic sweep. Biden wins the democrats take the senate and the house and on the other hand, trump wins, the senate is still republican and the house remains democratic ron, theres lots of things going on in the economy but raising tax rates is among the hot topics no. I dont think it would be advisable this early on. Yes it might be desirable to unwind some of those tax cuts that did not provide what was promised it may be advisable at some juncture in the future as we start to deal with deficit issues Going Forward certainly in the short run and i expect a President Biden might follow the pattern of a president obama, he would have to hold off on a that until we were certain that the economy was on a Sustainable Growth path for some notable period. Larry, lets talk about what the market is now. If the republicans hold the senate, most of those ideas about raising Corporate Tax rates would be doa over there. Is this market vulnerable to a pull back, in your view or is it on firm footing . I think over the course of the summer youll see a pull back of 5 to 7 . If you look back over the last ten years thats what we have seen during the summer theres some catalysts out there. Theres some political concerns, some tensions with china we talked a bit earlier about the therapeutic. Longer term, i still think this equity market is on solid footing especially if the economy recovers starting in the Fourth Quarter larry says maybe the economy starts to recover but theres recover and then theres recovery it can start to move up. The needle may move and it may move dramatically. It seems to me, to this humble observer that the idea that well be back to the kind of growth rate and employment levels and income levels across the economy is pretty farfetched in the near term yeah, i think to large extent thats right the composition will dra change dramatically we saw suggesting of the 38 Million People laid off so far, as many as 40 to 42 of them may be been laid off permanently as we watch the economy go through changes that kelly was talking about and you see winners in the real sector do better, winners do worse if that 40 number is right of the 38 Million People who have lost their jobs in the last nine weeks dont recover them, youre talking about an unploemployment rate in the double digits. You have the disparity between the market and the economy i suspect that will go on for some time. All right we got to leave it there we wish you both a pleasant, long weekend kelly. Joe biden also with some tough words for amazon joining squawk box this morning. Listen i think amazon should start paying they taxes. I dont think any company, i dont care how big they are. They should be shouldnt be in a brogs they make billions and dollars. What is that background are are you . Im in my basement. That looks fantastic. I thought you were on like 30 rock isnt open. Any way. We did a little upgrading we did a little upgrading the past two weeks looks great this biden interview making so many headlines this morning. Amazon probably one of the major ones what do you think about it well, look, the question that i posed to him was given elizabeth warrens views about breaking amazon up, would you break up amazon . He didnt answer that. He went in a different direction and went after the tax issue which is something hes gone after before one of the things he talked about is the idea of a corporate minimum tax. Even if you had tax losses which you had wanted to carry forward, there would be a certain minimum of Corporate Tax that you would pay. In the past year or two, amazon has paid on a federal level zero taxes using some of the losses and other credits they have been provided all legal and of course they employ so many people, hopefully all of whom are paying taxes you can make this argument in different ways i think the larger point and you were talking about it in the last segment is hes clear lly prepared to raise Corporate Taxes irrespective of the crisis its an interesting position to have because theres a balancing act to be done which is especially as youre trying to recover and get people to have more jobs. On one side, if you raise taxes, you would imagine that would make that more difficult he seems to not think thats the case at one point he seemed to question that whole idea on the other side theres a reasonable argument to be made that in an environment where the government has now bailed out and the Federal Reserve has bailed out, every Company Effectively in america, perhaps, companies should pay more ultimately in some kind of form of insurance, if you will, if thats what will be considered the question is when you do it and how you do it and that seemed to be the debate we were having that with one of many you hit a lot of ground. We talked about pharmaceuticals and whether it should be price controls vaccines he was going to make it available to every Single Person in this country for free explain whether that meant there would be price controls. I asked if he thinks about the markets. They dont measure their public health, their physical security the way the markets seem to be doing and he seemed a bit more pessimistic a lot of people the fact that now this is becoming a more point ed. All voters to any of the crossovers youre trying to get for november being tough on china is a really important part of that. In this particular instance, he was very tough on china i think he might have a more nuanced view of some of the other issues in terms of escalate that tension. There was a lot in that intervi interview, i helped people especially in the market it was an interesting time unless people get the wrong idea, i listen to the show that why i had not seen the background its all good the cool part is we with change whats back there. Seasonally, you have to match the weather, the time of day youll probably match the weather, time of day, maybe. Well see. I want some birds thanks very much we appreciate your staying and bringing that to us. Tyler. Kelly, i think andrew is the only person whose basement is 70 stories above midtown manhattan. Thats true take a look at the market. Isnt that the truth f financials and Energy Stocks are the worst performers today despite a strong week. Tensions are rising with china and andrew talking about it. Former Vice President as well. Are the semiconductors about to become the riskiest group because of theirics po exposureo china . Well be right back. Yes. The first word to any adventure. But when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. I came across sofi and it was the best decision of my life. Were getting a super competitive Interest Rate on our money. Were able to invest through the same exact platform. I got approved for a loan and it was a gamechanger. Truly sofi, thank you for helping me prepare for whatever the future has in store. Find a stock basedtech. On your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Across america, Business Owners are figuring things out. Finding new ways to serve customers. Connect employees. And work with partners. Comcast business is right there with you. With a network that helps give you speed, reliability and security. And enough bandwidth to handle all your connected devices. Voice Solutions Like remote Call Forwarding and readable voicemail. And safe, convenient installation. When every connection counts, you can count on us. Get the connectivity your business needs. Call today. Comcast business. Welcome back Semiconductor Names are under pressure as tensions with china escalate they are up this week still led by nvidia hitting all time highs. That brings us to todays crisis playbook here is the Senior Analyst with crfa research. Its great to have you here. What would be in your Semiconductor Crisis playbook . Thanks for having me. We kind of look at just the markets today in terms of semis. The trade issues have clearly intensified between the u. S. And china here over the last week or two with huwei as well as other things that have kind of arisen out of the semi side of thinks we dont think its a surprise that youre seeing this escalating relationship amid the covid landscape. Areas we would or the way we would play the Semiconductor Market today is we remain very optimistic on the long term secular story related to the cloud. Names like an nvidia is a great place. That being said, the stories there look very over extended in terms of the multiples as a result, we think from a tactical perspective near term, you want to look at more of the kind of cyclical plays that are out there that havent run as much think about the semiconductors of the world and devices then our third kind of play would be on the g side of things great long term secular story as well as the potential for some great adoption heroes the next one to three years those are the areas we can be looking at and focuses on. You said micron is one of the names to be a bit wary of because it has the most poexz your to huwei. Why do you think in microns case its more risky than not in. When we look at the semiconductor side of thing, one great thing the companies have done over the last year or so is deemphasize their exposure. Skywoks which is where were telling investors, they had north of 10 of sales going to huwei a year ago now its about 1 to 2 of their revenue. Its a great flight to safety type of name where they have no debt and a ton of cash on the balance sheet. A great flight to safety name. Thats a great place to be right now. Any company and any individual for that matter. I want to close with a final excellent on nvidia. You did raise the price target even after the monster move it had. Where are with in its cycle or is it a super cycle because of where its doing business. Yeah, i think as far as nvidia is concerned, what we really love about this story is finally completed acquisition. Love the games play as we go through platforms. Not the mention automotive remains a weak area for the company. If youre a long term investor, this will be a great third leg growth catalyst for the Company Looking out three to five years from now all right a lot of great stuff in there. Thank you for talking through it we appreciate it thanks for having me. Anglo with his crisis playbook with the chips. Tyler. The race for vaccine continues as america continues to reopen over the memorial day weekend. Big tests this weekend well tell you which companies are leading in the vaccine race and why. Plus small caps out performing this week. Up more than 7 . Well tell you why that has some bulls kpieexcited. Much more power lunch is after this quick break this is decision tech. Find a stock based on your interests or whats trending. Get realtime insights in your customized view of the market. Its smarter Trading Technology for smarter trading decisions. Fidelity. Confident financial plans, calming financial plans, complete financial plans. Theyre all possible with a cfp® professional. Find yours at letsmakeaplan. Org. All right, folks lets get to sue for the latest update on the coronavirus. Sue. Thank you very much good afternoon the u. S. Is planning a mass ifr vaccine testing effort involving more than 100,000 volunteers thats according to sources on reuters. Under the plan vaccine makers have agreed the share data and facilities to speed up Development Time from years to months President Trump is calling on governors to reopen churches this weekend he says he will override them if they dont comply. Its unclear how he intends to do that. Today, im identifying houses of worship, churches, synagogue and mosques as essential places that provide essential services. Some governors have deemed lick tor stores and abortion clinics as essential but left out churches and other houses of worship. Its not right youre up to date back to you. Thank you very much lets send it over to seema for trading nation hi, seema. Small caps finishes off a pretty big week. Lets bring in your trading nation team today to discuss craig, any sign of Market Participation . What im seeing with this iwm chart is were running up into some resistance around 135 and from my perspective the key thing well have to see with the iwm is well have to start to see the financials participate theyre at 20 the chart i brought in today, you can see you had a bit of a bullish consolidation. Youre trying to move your way up but at the very bottom i made a quick ratio chart looking at the qre and theres some small evidence youre trying the make a Double Bottom down there but at this point and time, i dont think theres enough evidence. Small mid cap stocks have underer formed for a while nice little catch up this week you need more evidence and more time o tto make a bigger, prods call what would you attribute this recent run in small caps to . I think its really has to do with sector weightings when i look at the economy normalizing, the small caps their sectors are much more evenly balanced across we like the small cap space. When you look at the economy comes out of a recession and were going to be in a recession after the second quarter, small caps have out performed large caps in nine out of the last ten economic downturns coming out of those downturns. I think you have history on your side remember, small caps tend to be more u. S. Centric. You dont have to worry about rising tensions in china, where the dollar will go and theyre just a lot cheaper than large cap brethren i feel some of the large cap sector has the value wagation h gotten stretched carrying that large cap stretch upward i was going to say thats an interesting point to make. Michael and craig, well leave this conversation there. Thank you for joining us today for more trading nation head to our website or follow us on twitter. A lot of content there back to you. Still ahead, the race for cure how close are we to a vaccine and do we have the abilities to roll it out widely enough to be effective . Plus were going yields hunting. 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Welcome back a look at the s p 500, it just turn eed positive. The nasdaq is hanging onto a gain the russell 2000 have been up. The dow down about 36 points well see if it joins the rest of the averages i

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