Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240713 : c

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money Halftime Report 20240713

Committee. Amy is the chief Investment Officer of the chevy chase trust. I want to show you where we stand right now. Another brutal jobless number to digest along with technical damage to key sectors. We have had a nice move off of the lows the dow is hanging onto 23,186 its a loss of 65 points good level for the s p to keep an eye on 2800 nasdaq the focal point of so much of our conversation is giving back 1 there it is on the right side of your screen. Put the last couple of days into perspective with what were seeing today you are one of a top Financial Adviser in this country. Whats the word . Well, i think any objective way of looking at this, the market is pricing in a lot of good news at large i think thats what you heard from david tepper. Its hard to find anybody that disagrees with that. I think in the very short run theres asymmetric risk to the downside market vs mos have moved a lot as we move to open in the recession ends and the recession will end in is an engineered recession to deal with the Health Care Issue and as we moved to open, while the data is still horrendous, the narrative is on the delta of the data meaning the data is getting positive we have rally onied on that narrative. That said, i think we have seen the lows what mitigates mull bapull back incredible stimulus. The cash on the sidelines and the news flow kind of turning positive ic we need to get out there a little bit i would ascribe us as interme interimmediate to longer term. I would also say, scott, very importantly, the market is acting rationally. When you look at this recession, we are looking to 21 because we know its going to end when you look to 21, earnings on technology are set to be up 15 . Earnings on energy are said to be down 70 . What are the best performers in the market right now the tech stocks. Heres what i want to talk a about the here and now talking about the worst risk reward hes seen in his career he referenced David Teppers comments to me on this program lets revisit what he said about where he sees the market now we should discuss on the other side what people should do about it its definitely, as of yesterday, the market is down from yesterday i would say that 99 was more overvalued, 992000 i would say its one of the most overvalued ive ever seen. Okay, steve in the context och what david tepper told us yesterday, does that mean its time for people watching our program right now to sell some of their winners . Ive been doing that. I didnt sell anything yesterday and didnt do really any pairing back today did some trading but once powell put the kabash on the market yesterday, things trade down my view has been we got to trade in range i was a little surprised of trading range got extended over the last week prior to powell again. What do you do when you think its top of the trading range. You take exposure off. Valuation is interesting thing i dont know how anybody can opine on the market being cheap when even the companies that are performing very well not from a stock standpoint but earnings ref revenue standpoint have pulled their guidance from the second half of this year i listened to about 15 companies. Companies ive picked were mostly 5g companies. They have all seen great demand. A lot of them have increased their guidance for the Second Quarter but none of them have guidance to the sec haond half the year its a plaque zoblack zone what i have come to grips with is sure we had a lot of stimulus going to get more too where is that going yeah, we are going to get more we need a lot more fiscal stimulus the stimulus we got from the government so far is replacing earnings that went to food, that went to rent, that went to utilities, that went to necessities. Theyre not going to drive the economy. What are you trimming right now . Im sorry to interrupt you i want to know right now what are you trimmin intrimming you said you were. What is it i trimmed key site. I trimm emed facebook i trimmed baba i trimmed visa the issue with the semiconductors is their proposals in d. C. , one that trump signed but he hasnt put into effect which says that basically, were not going to be able to sell chips to without a waiver from the again. Their sales went from 175 million to 10 million, just like that if that comes and hits the semis and we dont know if it will or not because we dont know whats going to happen. In its hitting the semis today. Dipping below the moving average. These are stocks that have run up a lot theres a lot of tech names. The tried and true marquee names that have run up a lot its caused people to step back and take a pause youve done that yourself and youre selling or trimming some of microsoft, which is name that almost nobody comes on this air and says its time to take some profits in microsoft its not usual for me to go against the grain. I think its the right call at this point its a 1. 4 trillion company its almost 6 of the s p. I think a lot of the people who are buying microsoft right now are not really buying microsoft. They prare putting money into ef that are being allocated to microsoft. The company is trading at ten times revenue. Its a Wonderful Company but to justify a ten times revenue valuation is difficult especially when youre that big. Its hard to grow that fast. We have incredible aid its done really well this year. Its gained a lot of share and cloud but now that its 50 of cloud, how much more share gains are in front of them it has a big legacy business that it still has to manage. Eps is going up but they are also buying back their shares. They are benefitting from lower taxes. Some of that Earnings Quality is lower than i would like. I think theyre just better opportunities elsewhere. Its such a good conversation to have. Is it time to triem some of these tech stocks sha have run up a lot or just take a pause and let everything ride . Even david tepper yesterday wasnt hating on the market. He said it was over valued but he acknowledged the power of the unprecedented level of stimulus thats been pumped in from fed and congress and the acknowledgement that more is on the way. Where does that leave our viewers and the investors out there who have watched this market do a v bounce and are now worried that woere about go in the opposite direction i agree with amy. I agree when positions and now were picking on microsoft but a microsoft, facebook or google, all the stocks that have really run and its specific to somebodys portfolio its specific to risk. I see nothing wrong at these valuations to peel them back. Were waiting a little bit more for the market to come back. We havent put any new capital to work in the last few weeks. Just incremental i think this is the time when you look at just as when you look at stocks versus bonds, you look at within your portfolio and youre looking at stocks you kind of go back after some of the other names that we want to buy that were not ready to buy now. What looks over valued to you to play off this tepper sound from yesterday what jumps out saying i think thats over valued and nied to sell some of it . I look at volatility and basically use that as a metric to help me decide, okay, i should be lightning up on stocks and getting more heavily into options which i realize are a leverage play but nonetheless have less risk to the down side if we correct. That feels more like panic and fear entering back in at the high end of the range. If it pulls back to where it was two days ago when i was with you, 26, im much more likely to be getting out of stocks at that level. I guess im a bit of a contrarian in that regard, too to your point, stocks like microsoft, they did a big deal with meta switch which gets them further into 5g territory. That plays out over time for that i get paid to wait. I can do it monthly. I can sell at the money call, which i did. I lightened up on a number of positions today on the stock side that i hope to reload with because of that move up to 39. I want to go down to eamon. He has breaking news regarding senator burrand that Insider Trading investigation under way. Mitch mcconnell announcing that senator burr will step down as the chairman of the Senate Intelligence committee that statement just moments ago saying senator burr contacted me this morning to inform me of his decision to step aside during the pendency of this investigation. We agreed it bouwould be in the best interest of the committee and will be effective at tendhed of day not stepping down as a senator mcconnell suggesting this is a temporary move you remember this follows the news that came out last night that the fbi had served a warrant on senator burr and had confiscated his cell phone in an effort to look for evidence regarding this allegation of possibly improper trading by senator burr related to briefings he received earlier in the year about the coronavirus he sold a significant amount of stock early in the year after getting that briefing. He said he did nothing wrong he followed public news accounts and thats what drove his decision to sell his account including news on cnbc well continue to follow that story. Lets get back to our conversation we mentioned what david tepper had to say those arent the only views out there. Bill miller wads on the network yesterday, too, saying he doesnt see stocks as being dramatically over valued and he was even sort of backing up his investments in troubled places like the airlines. We do think the market is a little toppy here. You have two completely different polar forces pulling on the market. You have the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression which we dont think will end any time soon i dont think anybody thinks its going to end any time soon versus this gargantuan liquidity push i think people i dont think people buying the market now really think this is is a cheap or protracted market even bill miller has said its fairly valued, not cheap i think youre getting this push into equities from the fed which is clearly wanting to squash volatility, wanting to raise asset prices the trying to bridge us until the economy comes back we dont know if they can do that or not. Every time you hear more about potentially more stimulus, the market reacts positively like it did today. Its this push pull between the Economic News and fed stimulus its really hard to make that call of whose going to win were relatively optimistic that you do get a treatment in the second half of the year. I think were most optimistic about regenerons cocktails in that regard. Its very hard to make that call honestly, nobody knows for sure. Lets bring in another voice in the conversation another legendary investor nelson pultz its been a while. Welcome back im great i trust you and your family are okay as well we are. Thank you very much for asking were just having a conversation about where we are. We had some very big and prominent voices over the last 24 hours discuss that issue. Stan saying worst risk reward of his entire career. Maybe the second most overrated over valued market that hes ever seen. Where are we what do you think . Let me tell you, first of all, ive lived through im really old 74, 81, 87, 08 and this one. Tlair all different and all the same you come out of them theres people that made very wiesz investments in that period of time. Ive been watching cnbc through this hole period and i have decided to say yes to you because i felt cnbc for a while, i thought it was misnamed as the medical channel because everybody with a wharton degree seemed like they had a medical degree theres so much doom and gloom this thing is not going to last forever. Theres still loads of value in the market i believe when we get a vaccine, and i do believe we are going to get a vaccine. I spoke last night to a friend of mine. Hes cfo of pfizer hes not a young suit. Hes an old timer. He didnt tell me anything he didnt tell everybody else i have no pfizer in my books so im not talking my book. Its one of a Dozen Companies but they say by july theyll have three or four substances and hopefully by september looking down for one its going to be somebody because ive never seen more cooperation between pharma and government more cooperation between government in industry more cooperation between treasury and government. We are going to come out of it its going to come out because our guys will come up with something. Made in the usa will mean something again. Im glad youve been watching our network so sbenintently we have heard from a lot of people in the medical community, and we speak to him on a nightly basis because what the doctors say about where this is all going plays big into the kind of decisions that you and our viewers may be making as to how theyre going to invest and what sort of time frame they see all of this lasting. How do you make a big investment today if you have no idea what the runway of this virus looks like something. Youre right. Png is really good company wendys has shown itself to be a good company it said wendys sales were down for the week just ended minus 2 think about that minus 2 how about the beef . You have enough burgers . It all comes out in sales, right, scott if they aint buying hamburgers, theyre buying chicken and breakfast and theyre buying all the frosties and whatever else you can think about. Theyre buying something if sales are down 2. 1 for the week and dining rooms are closed. This is going be great lesson and we better learn from it. The reason we won world war ii is we had great generals and great army and navy and air force guys i know one company that wasnt around then. Making portable radios one day and another making mine sweepers we cant even make face masks today. Thats going to change were not going to be crossing oceans to get vital parts for our economy, i believe, when this is over you think this will cause a dramatic chain in is su supply system absolutely. He said they were making jet engines but they were getting five important parts from india. Those five parts stopped shipping because india stopped shipping when all this is over, those five parts are not going back to india. Thats a very small example. We should finance a lot of American Manufacturing to come back here. To start making it here. Let me tell you something, its becoming harder and harder to run a business where your vital parts coming from asia and elsewhere. It really is hard. Its a lot easier when its made in a couple of states down the road and with automation and with our skill set, we should be able to do that. You know the minute somebody announcing they got a vaccine thats been approved, the shorts will be running to the hills nobody knows when that day will happen there are ramifications about what youre talking about and what you wrote to the white house about bringing supply chains here and bringing jobs back here. The cost of capital goes up. The cost of Human Capital goes up automation potentially costs real people their jobs. We exported them generously. We gave them to europe and asia. Now its time to bring those jobs back for two reasons. First of all, we have to have a supply chain thats reliable and for military purposes we have to have it. As i said, we cant cross oceans to get vital parts we have to be able to get it here by truck. Thats the issue that i think that we will have learned from this made in the usa will mean something again. I voted from everybody from goldwater to clinton i pick a guy, not a party. I rest of the country was like that i do believe that some of the policies that are been put in place by this administration forget about whether its republican or right wing thats why were having trouble getting face masks thats whats going to change out of this. Youre between automation and everything if we have to export a little labor, lets make it in mexico lets make it in guatemala where the truck can come right up the road to us youll be voting for President Trump for his reelection . Right now, yes, for sure. I am as i said, i voted both sides of the aisle. I dont see anything coming from the other side of the aisle. I dont see anything coming. If you got me, you got me. Im voting for trump i love his policies. His policies to me are the right policies for america this was not to be a Political Campaign here, but theyre the right policies for america today. You said you wrote a letter to the white house im wondering how long that was. Do you have anongoing dialogue with the president scott, lets talk the market. Okay i started talking about the market and you started talking about i decided to come on today happily to talk about how i see things going not about which way i vote, red or blue, at one particular time. Lets not make this into a political conversation you and i can have that offline. Nelson, youre the one that went there i was following up on your answer then i cut it short lets talk markets. Okay yeah. Are you putting new capital to work and yes where im not going to give you names but we see were price sensitive. Weve got a couple of candidates that we really like and when the stocks get to those levels, which they have been there for a while and then left and been there again, we buy. We like these companies. We think theyve been beating down a bit too much. We believe theres great value there. S youre adding to existing companies . Have you initiated new positions . Ive initiated new positions. You have. When you hear someone like warren buffet who is sitting on a pile of cash saying hes not putting anything to work now that he doesnt see anything that looks all of that attra attracti attractive, how do you react to that hes entightstled to his opi. Im entitled to ours im not buying the market. Im buying specific companies. In this case two companies i like very much two new positions that said it. Two new positions. When they get to the price ie like then we buy about positions that you already have and you mentioned you spoke to somebody with ge aviation, how do you think about ge getting through this crisis there still are considerable concerns about the company and its future i know you probably read the notes from stephen, the analyst who follows the company closer than anybody how do you think about ge getting through this crisis and making it to tohe other side . I think larry is one of the best industrial managers ive ever met ive been around a long time larry has been dealt an awful hand almost everything has fwogone te wrong way for him. Hes got a lot of cash hes got great business in aviation but nobody is flying. If we believe that people will never fly again then hes got a terrible business. If we believe they will fly again then they will start chalking up miles. I think larry is really smart manager. Keeps his cool doing things with ge that should have been done decades ago i have a lot of confidence in him. Clearly, if people are not flying again then the stock is over priced. If they start

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