Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

Least for today. Nasdaq pacing for its fifth day in the green markets moving higher. Lets get to bob fast break more on this rally. Hi, bob. It is tech powering the market is choosing to believe the reopening stories will go well the airlines are all up. It goes either way on that well see if we can break out. If we can do that, were back to the levels we havent seen since march here when you have the five largest stocks, the market will be up. Thats a big meg cap rally most of the semiconductors have done well. Nvidia is up 10 microns had a pretty good week they are contributing as well. Not only is it positive, were up almost 5 better than the overall nasdaq but something very important has happened to the etf. Thats the triple q. Its amassed 100 billion in assets thats a very rare number. The etf business about 3 trillion theres only four other etfs that have 100 billion in assets and they are mostly s p 500 related. The spider s p the ishares. Vanguard has one total stock market, all four of them over 100 billion now, today, investco is joining them big day for them 100 billion dollar club. Back to you. Thank you very much none of the numbers are nice exsent one that is many that many of these layoffs are regarding by those laidoff as temporary or furloughs. Yeah. Thats something i guess i should be used to after all these years following bob talking about an up market when im reporting on dismal economic news. This is a poignant one of those moments here this job report, historic job losses to a postwar high. Debate of whether or not we have seen the extent of the tragedy in the jobs market and whether or not april will im sorry, may will show better numbers theres the debate, the bottom two numbers. 6. 4 Million People dropping out of the work force. Thats not good news for the future tylers number there, 18 million, often these people go back to work relatively quickly. You can see the debate in two other numbers. Theres the Unemployment Rate, 14. 7 . A wider look called the u 6 of slack in the labor market surging above 22 . We wouldnt be surprised to see a big employment bounce in may educators, 644,000 educators losing their job tyler, at this point all you can do, hope for the pessimist to be wrong. Prepare for them to be right back to you. Thank you very much stick around steve for more on what lies ahead of the jobs market amid the coronavirus pandemic we welcome in founder and ceo of leading National Staffing and recruiting firm. Tom and steve, welcome to both you have tom, what are you seeing and i ask the secretary of labor an hour ago, is this worst were likely to see . What do you think . I dont think its the worst. This is what everybody has been expecting. Sometimes for the numbers to happen is one thing but it shouldnt be a surprise to anybody and the leading sectors are still traveling tourism, restaurant, hospitality. Were seeing trends that weve been seeing. This isnt a surprise. The question is, when will there begin to be a bounce back. When do you think that is well, i think whats going to happen is were going to see cash crunch in the Third Quarter. Whether we open up june 1st nationwide or june 15th but come the Third Quarter well see the company, especially the larger ones that are havent financial trouble, theyll slow down their severabl receivables. Were going to see this for a little while and well start to see the bounce back with retail and restaurants. Theyre not going to be full are the landlords going to hold them to paying their rent at the full amount. Its going to go on through the end of the year. We do hope theres the bounce back but we wonder what is not yet in these numbers im wondering about things like for Small Businesses who got ppp loans when that money runs out, what will they do with their employees. For larger firms when the crisis of the pandemic fade will they engage in layoffs and when will salary cuts be reflected in some of the Government Data we have seen a continued high level of unemployment claims the last several weeks that suggests theres some additional knock on effective job losses coming for may. Some continued closures or businesses that have the second wave of business closings that look to be in effect theyre not closing because of the covid crisis or Health Reason they are closing because their customers or other businesses closed you have this second wave of knock on effect that will be a real decline in Economic Activity not a purposeful or designed decline thats part of the shutdown based on a what youre seeing, im curious because theres a recent Washington Post that indicated about 70 , 70 of those people unemployed believe they will be rehired back is that the message youre getting from ceos you speak to in a perfect world, the answer is yes. The reality is that to quote the great philosopher rahm emmanuel, you dont want to waste a good crisis some of those people will not ban wanted back and others the companies are hoping they can bring them back. We were in an extreme the other way. That is 3. 5 unemployment. It held out for a long time but that was really an aberration. Thats almost full employment and almost unheard of. The actual number for a really good Strong Healthy economy at 4. 5 or 5 isnt crazy. We wont get back to 3. 5 for a long, long time. Steve or tom, let me ask you this the ppp money is supposed to be spent or paid out by when . June 1st or june 30th . Steve. June 30th when that money gets paid out then could there be a next wave of layoffs at that point they carry people up to that point and then the employer, the retailer, the restauranteur says business hasnt come back. Ive got to let you go i cant carry you. Ill answer this question quickly so tom has chance. It looks like at this point, tyler, the government has done a decent job in terms of calibr e calibrating the amount of stimulus or relief out there to the amount of lost income. Youre absolutely right. It kind of echoes melissas question as well is the government preparedfor the postjune extension of either the economic downturn or even the shutdown itself that we havent seen from washington yet the good news is we can see that they do it theres a lot of handwringing about this do we still have tom on the line id like to get his thought and the idea that customers and even employee will be dealing with fear theres definitely a fear factor employees, former employees, unemployed folks, some of them are making more money than they were on the lower end than they were making salaries number two is because the Unemployment Benefits were extended and the checks went out so soon is that no one was air quote forced to take a job they wouldnt like to do. Were starting to create a little bit of a society of entitlement that the government checks will keep coming in instead of taking some of the jo jobs out there its a problem you know what, tom, i understand that part of the story but lets give the average worker a break one time, some of them make out compared to the other times they i dont know what you want to call it, been screwed. Im not going to get too work up about the fact that some of them one time in a bail out got a little bit extra its not going to make the difference and maybe do a little more, spend a little more or live a little better i dont think its about getting screwed or winning i think its about where the expectations are level set and what people are going to want going forward. Im all for helping out in a crazy situation like this. They dont want to lose out on Unemployment Benefits, thats a problem. I agree. Im all for the fact that the corporations get bailed out and we have to help the consumer but there is a happy medium on both. All right were going to leave it there. A good discussion there. Markets rally straight through with tech as the recent leader and stocks said to close in the green. For more on markets let ease bring in david katz. Gentlemen, great to have you with us. Ron, give us a Temperature Check on where you think the markets are given the data we have gotten people have been complaining that the stock market is not the economy and the economy is not is stock market. I think the stock market is adequately reflecting the rapid and increase pace of change were seeing in the composition of Economic Activity to put it simply, those companies that are, and you can view this perversely or not that are benefitting from shelter in place, stay at home, have out performed. Those that losing have been left behind no winners happened to be among the big megacap stocks in technology, Bio Technology and elsewhere. They are driving the markets higher those are in the plus column for the year i think the market, at one point reflected the expected weakness were seeing the bond market is saying a completely different story we might add that the possibility of negative Interest Rates, low short term rates reflecting weakness in the economy. Stocks are reoriented towards what the economy will look like on the other side of this. Not necessarily the fact we have a v shaped recovery in our future the that already reflected in valuations particularly of you mentioned technology were positive on the year here. We have gone up very fast in these sectors. If its a secular shifts. Were going to the office fewer days a week. Were having more Home Deliveries this could be something thats accelera accelerated by the coronavirus and the activity around it that could be long term and maybe not fully reflected in price of these shares. On the other hand youre seeing the bond market worry about the weakness and the Macro Economy its tale of two market, both may be saying the same thing those companies that are being left behind are being decimated in the stock market or retailers declaring bankruptcy those that will win in the long run continue to move higher. David, is there value in this market right now given the lack of clarity theres value theres not as much a month ago. Youve had a great rally and technology have led that rally there are places that we think are the Technology Stocks that are at 30 and 40 and 50 fulltimes eatimes earnings they are not that impacted by whats going on. We think you can buy those even though you have a misrabble economy as long as you have a 12month Outlook Companies like cvs had a very good quarter duke energy. Kellogg doing well at t doing well. Theyre selling under 12 times earnings the businesses are doing quite well because theres no sizzle, the stocks havent done a lot. Thats where we think you want to try to navigate this uncertain environment. For the stocks you mentioned that are pretty immune to whats going on now, another wave they might not be immune to cvs, at t at t with more media sates is more exposed to ad revenue, lets say. More exposed than they had been but not that exposed. At some point theres a tremendous disequity between the dismal economic numbers and the stock market its going to look toward 2021 and in that case its going to really look beyond whats happening in the current quarter, six months, even for theres a second wave or up tick in unemployment. They have really good Balance Sheets and cash flow youre not paying a lot for them these stocks should be higher 12 months out great speaking to you both. The twoyear yield hitting a record low lets get more on the bond markets move after the jobs report from rick hi, tyler youre focusing on the part of the curvethat the whole world is watching. Short maturities are not having a good week. Hes look at the chart you can see what im talking about. Theres this energy that is been broken into and you see it in all the yield curves as well look at tens minus twos. Really driven by short maturities dropping. Its widest its been basically since about the 26th of march. Even if you look at the knot which is 30s minus 10s, its the steepest its been this is really important if i look at all the contracts today that traded over 100 that implies a negative overnight fed funds rate today that would have been anything from october of 2020 all the way out to march of 2022 and beyond this is something the fed ready needs to address because it seems as though traders are pressing to see what type of reaction negative rates get from the predominant central bank of the world, the u. S. Fed. Back to you. Thank you very much. Coming up, all sectors, 11 of them, positive today with Energy Leading as the sector continues to snap back along with consumer staple, industrials. Well have more on the sector out look plus a closer look at retail as stores begin to open in some capacity well talk to the ceo of kimco realty about what hes hear frg his top tenants. Thats after this quick break. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. 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Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Shares up. Many malls remain closed because of the coronavirus pandemic, all, all of kimcos Shopping Centers are open right now with nearly half of its ten nanants considered essential here for a cnbc exclusive to talk about the path forward is connor flynn welcome back good to have you with us nice to see you all of your malls are open. This is because they are open air malls. Many of them are Grocery Store anchored but you also have essential retailers like Building Supply and walmart, right . Thats exactly right. We have really transformed the portfolio to be heavily weighted toward grocery anchor centers. Its really delivering at a time like this. Most shoppers have been comfortable going to the Grocery Store. We think thats a good indicator of whats to come when the nonessential will be allowed to open we feel like our Shopping Centers are uniquely positioned to rebound once they are allowed to open back up fully. Youve got a percentage of companies that are closed. Who have not open either because they voluntarily decided not to or they have been order not to do it. I see in my motes you clekts ec about 60 of the rents billed for the month of april, including 78 from the top ten nantss 40 from those that are closed have you received lots of rent deferral requests . We have received about 30 . We have been very clear that we believe the large, National Retailers that have the Balance Sheets and the cash on hand to pay their rent should pay their rent that allows us to use the Balance Sheet to help the small shops, the mom and pop retailers that dont have the cash on hand to allow us to bridge them to other side we think thats the key component to all of this is making sure the Small Businesses which we believe are the secret ka sauce to the Shopping Center success make it to the other side what has been the reaction of the large retailers been to that stance its case by case scenario. We obviously have long relationships with all of our retailers and the ones that are open are paying, in general. The ones that are closed were looking to negotiate a bit with the reopenings beginning, we see a light at the end of the tunnel and were hoping with the restrictions lifted we can see our Shopping Center snap back. I agree that mom and pop stores should be helped but at the same time are your malls built an the anchor stores are there agreements where you need to keep the large chain if they are asking for a rent reduction you might be forced or think twice and give it to them in the end the nice part is typically you have a grocery anchor and one or two other anchors the clauses are pretty individually specific to multiple anchors having to be closed in an individual Shopping Center for a long period of time in order for the cotendency clause to be triggered all are doing well the other anchors are set to reopen shortly those clauses will not be triggered in the current environment. Tell us about your Liquidity Position and your debt position. We are very, very proud of our lick quidity positions. Its one of the first things we made sure to secure. We feel like were in a position the utilize that Balance Sheet to help our small shops. The data that tyler was saying regarding rent deferrals, they are a deferral. Does that happen in your

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