Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20240713

Still hovering at just 16 a barrel in the futures market the ceo of the oil and gas Drilling Company pattersonuti energy will be here. That as another 4. 4 million of americans file for jobless claims in just one more week bringing the total to more than 26 million in the past five weeks. Its a stunning number well dig into it. Kelly, over to you tyler, thanks its been a volatile day in the market after the gilead report hit the requires about an hour ago. Lets get to bob for more. Kelly, i want to show you the s p 500. There may be conflicting reports about what it said the market viewed it as disappointing. T there was a very sharp drop in the s p 500. We lost about 35 points. Were now below 3,000. Thats a significant drop. Reports that the remdesivir trials were not good look at this exxon and chevron just keep chugging along although pretty low levels for them. I want to remind everybody how Many Companies withdrawing guidance theres many, many every day now. Today, we saw pulte, Union Pacific withdraw Oreilly Automotive with drew, net gear the list is very long. This makes it difficult to figure out what the proper prices are for stocks because we dmoents what the earnings are. They saw a surge in digital activity 275 surge in april. Look at the comment here midmarch they saw a surge in retail comps overall in april, they said the trends softened significantly as a result, were seeing target down but so are some of the other consumer stocks. Walmart, campbell, cocacola we have seen some of these comments from other companies. Surges in march, parts of april and slowing down after that. Thats a bit of warning sign why were seeing the stocks move to the down side. Back to you. Robert, thank you very much lets get more on thon conflicting reports regarding gileads drug remdesivir and meg will explain it to us. Constant caveats coming out this one is a report on one of the studies run in china that was stopped prematurely due to low enrollment case numbers were declining in china. They couldnt continue to study. This was accidentally posted on the w. H. O. s website and stat news and the ft found it before it was removed 237 patient ws were included. The stud by planned to enroll 453 patients after 28 day, the number of patient who is died were about 14 of those on the drug versus 13 in the control group a summary posted in the screen shot saying quote, remdesivir is not associated with clinical benefits they do say that trends in the data suggest a benefit for remdesivir particularly among patiented treated early in disease. This is controversial because this was not a fully completed study. It was too early and stopped due to low enrollment. Were all waiting for the gilead data which we should see within the next week fp the first data from the trial is without a control group. This will continue to be complicated probably for the next month until we see data from an nih study. One thing that is just been on my mind with this remdesivir is this treatment is only for patients whose disease has progressed pretty badly, isnt it because its way its administered, its administered in the hospital. Patients are pretty sick what we are starting the hear is it will probably make sense to use the drug earlier in the course of the disease. It interferes with the virus abilities to replicate you should use it bvr tefore th virus has taken over in the body the studies were done in the more severe cases. Youre hearing folks coming out saying it will work better in the earlier courses of disease when pashtss are in the hospital, theyre already pretty sick its a catch 22. When those goals, those better studies come out by the end of next month from gilead, will it account from people able to get remdesivir early on or will they still rely on those more severe and in the hospital already . I believe all of the patients were in a hospital setting there were some given earlier if the course of the disease known as moderate patients with covid19 interesting thanks really appreciate it as we mentioned, another 4. 4 million americans are out of work this week we learned that this morning that brings the total to more than 26 million in the past five weeks. Steve is here to walk us through the numbers. What do we know . Its oots stunni ianother st at 4. 4 million the kind of numbers you dreamed would happen in a single week. Its down for the Third Straight week but its the equivalent of saying we downgraded to a ten alarm fire down to a ninealarm fire the number is still six times the worst week we ever had in 2008 its pretty bad but not as bad as it was. 5. 2 million in the prior week. 4. 4 now. Total 26. 5 million thats 16 of the total u. S. Labor force has filed for unemployment claims. California leads at 3. 4 million followed by a big pack there between 1. 5 and 1. 2 million cumulative claims over the fiveweek period we have been tracking when you look at it as a percent of the work force by each state, different results. Michigan lead, pennsylvania. This reflects two things it reflects the pain in each state and the ability of states to process when you look at the chart of those who are not doing quite as well, for example, texas, florida, virginia. Do they have less job loss or they just unable to process claims as quickly as the other states other things we dont know but were watching for in the data do some states have more people who can work at home as a percent. Whats the state ability to process the claims fulltimely, t l finally the affects of the ppp payroll thats supposed to keep people on the payroll but were hearing maybe not so much. Tyler could i ask a quick question. As i look at numbers as a percent of work force, does that suggest that unemployment in those states like michigan and pennsylvania and several of the others is going to easily be above 20 . It could be, tyler. Just so you know, these are separate what ive done with this data is put together two different data sets. The work force numbers come from the Household Survey thats done monthly. The unemployment comes from the unemployment claims office. I totalled up the last five week, what youll have is a survey thats done by the government that will find out the Unemployment Rate and by state. Its not a bad proxy for where the Unemployment Rate could be if all of these claims get counted as the unemployed. All right thank you very much. One area where unemployment is bad and likely to get even worse is retail, which is under pressure as Stores Remain closed because of local and state restrictions owing to that coronavirus pandemic and worries about these retailers are beginning to mount earlier on squawk box the target ceo weighed in on one of the bright spots for his company we went into the month of april and millions of americans are sheltering at home and heard from Public Health officials its best to try to minimize your time in physical store locations. We saw a huge spike in digital comps. For the quarter were seeing up 100 in april, our digital growth is over 275 . We have just seen cyber monday, occur almost every day, except the volume is twice the size we have seen on even a cyber monday peak all right despite that good news on the digital front for that company for target, shares are lower today and have been hit hard this year like a host of other retailers. Our next guest says you should expect a tsunami of retail bankruptcie bankruptcies michael calendar is head of consumer and Retail Investment banking and Courtney Reagan is also with us welcome. Good to have you with us thank you bankruptcies are not unfamiliar in the retail space, but this volume of bankruptcies, the level that you expect, the big boldface names that will probably go through it, thats whats different this time around i think thats whats different but the quantity we had a period for several years where we had bankruptcies in regular part of the environment but were now expecting a significant number of bankruptcies that file between now and june and july. Record numbers this doesnt mean, however, record numbers, put some decimal points on that its hard to tell were tracking several dozen potential bankruptcy filings that could occur over that period of time across retail i think many of them will go through a going out of business sale you reduce under performing stores and some may go away totally. They dont have the capital pace to survivor the bankruptcy p proce process. Courtney, come nonand askon a couple of questions. A lot of attorneys that are operate ing in these restructurg and they say another issue is retailers are trying to get their house in order and figure out what their liquidity positions are. In some cases they might be working on some prepackaged ideas how to restructure so when they go to court, they have their items lined up why thats important is because it could also be sort of a race to file, if that makes sense you dont really want to do it now because stores are closed. A key part of some of these retailers liquid daating some o the store s they have to have an open store and paa public that a come in and buy the merchandise. Once stores are reopened you might want to be among the first to file because you dont want to have competition with every one else trying to liquidate that merchandise is there going to be race to do this and to courtneys point, its not actually advantageous to file now because you cant have a Liquidation Sale now in most parts of the country . Right its not advantageous the file today. For the most parts of the country the stores are closed and liquidating into closed stores is impossible im sure lawyers in this area have never been busier at all. What are we talking about in terms of potential job loss. As the stores cease to exist and we can name some of them if you want that may be on the short list of those that are in most danger but a lot of them are going to come back with much smaller footprints and smaller employ bases, correct . I think thats absolutely correct. The entire retail segment, its between 40 and 50 million jobs one of the single largest employer, i expect well see significant permanent loss of jobs through this bank rupruptcy process. The big and super stores are best positioned, most people say, michael do you dispute that and who is on the short list of the vulnerable im not going to comment on the short list because im a banker and many of them may be clients but we expect a significant number of bankruptcies in the segment. We see bankruptcies in the depts segment. Those are two of the segments. Courtney, any final thoughts there . Its one of these things well have to watch carefully. A lot of the retailers cant answer the questions we have posed. What normal looks like when stores do reopen as we discussed its incredible period of time because of how many may come at the same point in time the dynamic the supply chain has been shut down remerchandising stores when they do reopen will be difficult. We have inventory out of season and apparel retailers when they closed in march and reopened in june its incredible period of time along with this landlord dynamic but with rents being held by most retailers in april. Thank you so much for for your time today and invietsing us, i suspect, into your home. We appreciate it thanks. Tyler, thanks. Coming up, stock mixed this afternoon. You ti utilities and real estate are weighing on the market as crude continues to tank higher you can see an even split there. Oil and gas driller pa pattersonuti reporting earnings the stock is now down about 75 this year. The ceo will join us right after this break stay with us these days, its anything but business as usual. Thats why working together is more important than ever. At t is committed to keeping you connected. So you can keep your patients cared for. Your customers served. Your students inspired. And your employees closer than ever. Our network is resilient. Our people are strong. Our job is to keep your business connected. Its what weve always done. Its what well always do. Welcome back stocks struggling to hold their gains. Losing steam after reports that gilead promising coronavirus treatment flopped in a trial the market seeming to hang on any headline about the virus we talked about whether to read too much into that one or not. You can see the concern. Were still hanging onto half percent gain for the dow lets bring in global chief ineine ineine Investment Officer kevin mahn. How important is it we get better news and not just gilead but theres other treatments out there. How important is that for the market its very important we have gotten a lot of good news coming out of the federal government and reserve with respect to additional stimulus and liquidity measures they have put in place to help us manage through this economic downturn that were going through right now. The market is looking for a more positive news on the health front whether its with respect to therapeutic, a vaccine or sochl these stay at home orders being lifted so that the American Economy can be gradually lifted again to the point where consumers can go out and start spending and help our economy grow over time its all related the better we feel about treatment, the more likely people are trying to take safe reopening measures how do you sort of take that back to the stock markets valuation today. The rally we had off the lows and whether thats justified. I think its interesting Many Companies are suspending earnings guidance. The big question will be what will the 12 months normalized earnings look like every one is hanging on the virus but the big question is when does this end and when does the economy normalize. I think a lot of that is a result of fed. The fed drew the line in the sand i think the equity market has responded in kind. Kevin, lets go back to your thoughts about the market. You said we need better news on coronavirus treatments and vaccines and testing and so forth. What do you do stocks in the meantime i think the focus should be on quality Quality Companies tend to out perform low Quality Company pps what that means to investor on the equity side is they should be looking at companies with strong Balance Sheets, low levels of debt, experienced management team, history of Earnings Growth across multiple sti cycles we believe they should be considered fixed Income Securities focus on quality during these periods of economic stress are you not worried about the munis and the fact that mcconnell would bring up support for state bankruptcies i think munis were relatively strong coming into this cry issues on the Investment Grade side we did see some support for municipalities in the cares act. We saw the Federal Reserve providing some additional liquidity and we do believe there may be a potential fifth round of stimulus that will also provide some additional support. Again, its a focus on quality for municipals as well kirk, your advice as we go. I think theres increase demand for computing services. People in medical, the need for structure upgrades i think you want to look in those areas. A lot of opportunities with great bonds that are still good credits and under pressure again, theres a line in the sand here. The Big Companies will do well others are seeing fixed income, i would argue an energy pnds they will survive. The companies that are leveraged more than six times and independent producers will have a tough time thank you guys. We appreciate it my pleasure tyler all right. Thanks very much still ahead, semikwconductor stocks are up about 25 over the past month as the group stages a comeback i cant imagine the number of semiconne se semiconductors it takes to pull this shot off. Its a lot despite bouncing today, the uso etf tracks crudes prices is down more than 35 just this week alone as oil, you know what it did why are Retail Investors piling into this security weve got a special report, after this life isnt a straight line. And sometimes, you can find yourself heading in a new direction. But when youre with fidelity, a partner who makes sure every step is clear, theres nothing to stop you from moving forward. A partner who makes sure every step is clear, since 1926, nationwide weve been there in person, during trying times. Today, being on your side means staying home. Nationwide office of customer advocacy. But we can still support you and the heroes who are with you. Were giving refunds on Auto Insurance premiums, assisting customers with Financial Hardships, and our foundation is contributing millions of dollars to charities helping with covid19 relief. Keeping our promise to be on your side. Its a voice on the other end of the phone. A note to say youre on our mind. A willingness to come to you. The world and how we interact with each other is changing. But that will never change who we are at lexus. Now, more than ever, you and your needs come first. Find out what Service Options are available in your area at lexus. Com people first welcome back, every one. Lets get to sue for an update on the coronavirus sue. Hello, good afternoon here is what we know at this hour over in italy new cases fell for the fourth straight day. However, the daily death toll rose slightly to 464 only the United States has recorded more deaths overall here in new jersey, officials are rolling out a saliva test for the virus developed by rutgers university. It develops no swabs and Health Care Workers need less protective gear. They expect to do 10,000 tests a day within a few weeks the house of representatives looks a tllittle different lawmakers are Wearing Masks thaz repair to vote legislating is being slowed down as the House Chamber is closed for cleaning between votes more than 50,000 detroit student will be receiving tablet style laptops. A 23 Million Fund Raising effort weeks ago will cover the costs. Back to you. Thank you very much. Lets go to seema for trading nation were watching i

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