Dose of downgrades today, well find out if any of our traders are touching our stock shares are lower right now as the companys Conference Call is underway well break down any of the big headlines that come out. We begin with an historic collapse in energy prices. Oil falling below zero dollars a barrel for the First Time Ever the main contract tumbling more than 300 to around minus 36 a barrel yes, minus 36 a barrel. The more actively traded june oil contract also falling hard in todays session look at what happened to some of the energy stocks. The etf held up. Are there stocks that are presenting some big opportunities in this crude collapse guy adami, could we be seeing some sort of a sign of a floor for some of these equities wait a second, we dont just go right into the show i think the last time you were request us was probably december 5th or 6th, is that right . Yes here we are december 3rd, were back april 20th, youre not going to say anything. I dont want to speak on behalf of everybody but on behalf of everybody, welcome back brian did a great job, courtney filled in a bunch of times, this is your show, and its wonderful to have you back what was the question . Could the good price compare to the bad price action we saw in the actual contracts, tell us there could be a floor in the equities coming . Yeah, personally i dont think so youve had huge moves, i mean, exxon mobil went from 30 to 46, chevron went from 50 to 84, youve had some pretty outstanding move in those names, now theres a time where we start to give it back. We dont want to get into the minutia of the may contract. You look at the june contract, that was down 14 . If you dont think this could happen again, it could absolutely happen again, in terms of if the situation doesnt clear itself up, and it doesnt seen to want to abate. Although the commodities in a death spiral, the fact that the stocks were unchanged today, doesnt tell the real story. Theres more pain ahead in the equities market. Thank you first of all for welcoming me back. Its great to be back. I appreciate that. Tim seymour, i want to go to you. I wonder if you might be nibbling if you might be nibbling on some of these equities. Thats me clapping you in thank you, tim. Nibbling is the right way to do it, i dont think this is time to be making a wholesale allocations to the Energy Sector the xle which is essentially the Energy Select etf which is chevron and exxon is up about 20 . Over the s p 500 since the low in the market. The energy has outperformed i know off a low base. Ive talked about schlumberger, that makes them more investable. This is not an environment to get excited. I think whats going on in the Energy Market where oil traders are being paid to find any place they can store oil are hitting their tank tops and thats not a reference to what guy wears to the gym its a case where literally were out of storage and i think thats a case where the industry itself is a selfcorrecting mechanism. Theres always a supply response if youre an oil trader and its good for you, why isnt it good for investors that are going to be there tomorrow. This isnt buy with all hands, this is yes, there are Companies Like schlumberger and chevron that are going to be here tomorrow and then some when oil prices are going to be higher. You cant unsee guy in a tank top. This is a family show. Indulge me if you will the Production Cuts that were agreed to by opec plus go into effect in may. Could we be seeing some relief for wti coming i also have to say i am so thrilled youre here, you cant even have any idea how happy i am to hear your voice. I dont see you, but i imagine you look great welcome back the question, is there anything to be optimistic about in energy in may yeah, the Production Cuts that opec agreed to come into effect in may. So opec agreed to it, and russia agreed to it, you know, you got to forgive me, im not fully on board with believing thats going to happen even those Production Cuts were phased in and decreasing over time guy has made this point many times. He can make it better than i but they want to see us in pain, opec and russia. Why would they step off our necks when theyre seemingly about to break im not looking for anything in the oil space. I also think that some of the energy space thats been a beneficiary like the tankers, those are up so much theres risk that if there is some kind of real Production Cut and demand improvement, that those will collapse. I think theres risk either way, i havent been active in this space. Dan mel, crossroads, they seem to come and go, but youre back and were very happy about that, i want to leave it back there. Tim mentioned a dividend cut in the equities, the way i see it, you have exxon and chevron that make up almost half of the energy etf youre seeing those dividends get fat as those stocks go down. Chevron is down 38 in those two respectively, and maybe it really is the bottom comes, the capitulation comes in some of the majors when you really start getting chatter about a dividend cut in those names, maybe thats the opportunity to buy them. I would also say, one thing to go in for the dividend the other way to play it on the short term basis would be that xle, it doesnt seem there yet youre shaking your head, tim . Well, theres no way theyre cutting the dividend at exxon, theres no way theyre cutting it at chevron, this is something theyre hanging their hats on. The reason i like chevron is not because im fired up about fundamentals, this is a Management Team thats been returning, according to free cashflow over the last three years, they didnt just wake up today and understand the dynamics in their industries theres no reason to buy a stock in my view, i think weve all said that at different times and places its not why i would own them, theres no way theyre cutting that differ dends. Were talking about today and anything can happen in the oil space. Given the trajectory we have right now, thats not a good one, theyre not cutting that dividend it sounds like theres no scenario, theres no economic environment, no price per barrel that would cause them to cut their dividend yield were staring at a huge collapse in oil were staring at a Global Economic slowdown, and even this environment wont cause them it sounds like the dividend is teflon id like to hopefully be balanced and take deep breaths on this show, when its easy to make big sweeping hyperbolic statements Companies Like chevron and exxon have healthy enough Balance Sheets that theyre not going toe cut those dividends and theyre somewhat existential to those companies. I cant tell you whats going to happen tomorrow, but in terms of Equity Investors right now, what happened today, we didnt spend enough time on it, im not sure we want to what happened in the Oil Futures Market isnt about fundamentals, its about storage, its about futures contracts, if oil in november is priced at 32 on the contract on the close today, and its 21 in june i think i want to hold out until november, i want to hold out in the right balance sheet, im telling you that ive been investing in commodities and Energy Markets for 20 years, we see these overshoots before, and we know theres demand destruction. And we dont know where the economy is going the 16 to 18 billion that are pulled out of demand in the Second Quarter is not what were going to have in the Third Quarter and Fourth Quarter in my view own Balance Sheets you can stay in, and its a great time to invest we have this great brady bunch screen going here. Who would buy large cap integrated Oil Companies today to hold until the end of the year raise your hand . Am i alone right now . That would be only tim. Am i bobby looking up at greg, peter in. Maybe alice all right. So only tim. Maybe if youre looking forward to a dividend youre thinking, wow those fat juicy dividends, theyre fairly safe, do you agree . I understand what tim is saying, exxon, chevron, one of the last things theyd do if they had to is cut their dividend i understand that, i think something that karen said, and, you know, again, im pretty steadfast in this. I think were getting played, and i think were getting played for quite some time, i dont think crude oil or anything quite frankly is something you want to negotiate with visavis twitter or in an open forum. 40 ago, we wanted lower prices and we got them, and now all of a sudden we want higher prices and were not getting them you have to wonder whats on the other side of these negotiations in public. Ill say this again, i absolutely think the saudis and the russians are stepping on our necks and they want to see our oil industry fail. I think thats what the end goal is, im steadfast in my belief that they will lose the battle to win the war and right now, they might be losing the battle, it sure looks like theyre winning this war. Lets see how it plays itself out. The s p 500 dropping more than 4 1 2 . Our next guest says the vshaped recovery may not be in the cards just yet lets bring in tony dwar welcome back. So you think things could get worse. What makes you think that . I think we haveto make sure that we know what were talking about with the vshape recovery. Theres already been an vship recovery guess what the number one performance is coming off the low of march 23rd. To believe that because the price of oil has collapsed the stocks are at the same level they were march 23rd its had a pretty good bounce off the low. Just like health care, real estate, utilities, the thing thats interesting about the market and the way its rallied. People arent used to not being permeable. But the sectors that are rallying and leading off the market are not the sectors that led the rally off the march 03 or the march 09 low were still in the view especially given how extreme were looking for a relief rally. But not a 30 relief rally were thinking its tactical the fundamental side thats interesting, if you look at the yield curve and how many times have we done the yield curve when were on set. The treasury yield curve, everyone talks about it when it inverts, its predictive of a recession. Its also predictive of the end of the recession over the last three cycles, the yield curve has resteepened to over 100 basis points. Its currently at 43 its steepens to 100 basis points and in the last two, it gets up closer to 200 basis points before you emerge from recession. The yield curve is telling you by being so low, any recovery you get is going to be very tame so far, thats what the market is saying. What does the equity picture look like against that backdrop . So i wrote a note, and i was going to call it the square route recovery until i realized its a backw d backwards square route im lo looking at now youre in this epic battle between the fed and monetary stimulus on april 9th, when they came in to announce they were going to buy 450i yield debt, that protect the the whole 2008 credit crisis. The economic reality is on the other side of that, what i think, mel, is were going to get a pull back here and our call had been to get more offense while you were away, we downgraded our market view in january. And once the panic started, it looked like it was going to end, to get a relief rally and followed by a test of the low. I dont think its going to go back to the low. I want to become more offensive as we go down, and positive divergences develop. Karen, you got a question i do. I agree with you, tony, on your general thought that the vshape rally was probably too far too fast how far back do you think we retrace before you would say, lets get aggressive again its not the level thats really going to drive that decision, but what groups are out performing on the way down the relative performance in the sector like todays a great example, the financials and small caps outperformed you want to see the economic sector start to price in stability. Also i think you can get down toward 2500. Were going to be in this range, the problem i have is, when i look at how bank lending is acting, how the yield curve is acting, how the Chicago Fed NationalFinancial Condition stress indexes are acting, that predicts going to a total zero disaster the metrics weve talked about so many times on the show, dont point to, wow were going to have this turn in the economy once we go back to work, thinking were going to go back to work i think down toward 2500, but more of a broad range. Tony, thank great to speak with you. Thank you tony dwyer. Guy adami, reverse square route, i know thats going to take a lot of thinking on your part you agree with that . I dont even know what it five of all, i changed my backdrop in honor of you coming back to the show it looks very modern, very westin lobby. Yes, number one well, i mean there you go number two, let me say this, and i think karen might agree with this, you can make an argument that the markets down, whatever its down 15 from an all time high, stocks might be a tad more expensive than they were at an all time high, unless you factor in the fact that were in a zero rate environment in perpetuity and you have to change the multiple it seems like were three months into this thing and stocks may be more expensive. I tend to favor the tony camp, i dont know if were going to test that, but i think the trajectory now is probably somewhat lower from here, i would agree with t. D. Coming up, were watching shares of ibm. Theyre on the move, down almost 3 right now the companys cal is underway, commenting about the companys dividend well bring you all the headlines. Later, the Small Business aid Program Needs a Major Overhaul to get the u. S. Company back up and running agn. Ai what hes calling for. 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I have to echo your traders and guests, its wonderful to have you back and see you on screen no change to the dividends what was a little different this quarter, Arvin Krishna he was at the top of the call kicking it off his predecessor didnt usually dial into the call his heart goes out to those affected and he will be participating in these analyst calls. Hes focusing on ensuring that ibms customers emerge from the pandemic stronger and more resilient. Hes absolutely committed to growth for ibm as it emerges from the pandemic itself consistent growth is something she struggled to do during her tenu tenure jim car jim kafanov said ibm saw increase in this quarter for those that did engage, there was a noticeable change in priority that shifted from the stability it shifted to the stability of operation and a preservation of cash theyre seeing clients spend only on essential needs. I want to point out cloud and red hat numbers, both of these are key to analysts, which is the future where ibm wants to go both decelerated on a sequential basis. Which means they have their work cut out for them cloud is a must win for ibm and so far theyre way behind. While the new ceo is extremely bright shes not optimistic hes going to be able to turn ibm around. Thank you, deirdre. Dont miss jims exclusive interview with the new ibm eco thats tonight at 6 00 p. M. Eastern time i want to bring you headlines from that call saying the company will keep paying dividends theyre seeing somewhat of a rebound on the china business. Its all bounced back in the month of march where do youen sad on ibm . These guys were faced with a tough set of circumstances this is the stuff they were trying to do for a number of years. Its great that the priority coming out of this is going to be sales growth. I know that talking to a few friends, theyre not particularly happy that that red hat business decelerated in this quarter. I wouldnt expect any reacceleration basically ibms customers, this one had a really nice run off the low 90s, back to 120, i 12k3eexpect you i consolidate in the teams or so, down 5, 10 from here. Close to the after hours session, well keep you posted on the headlines that developed. Major bounce for biotech even as one of the sectors takes aim will netflix see a big boost . Its only human to find inspiration in nature. And also find answers. Our search to transform. Farm waste into renewable natural gas led chevron to partner with california bioenergy. Working to provide an alternative source of power. For a cleaner way forward. At t knows you have a lot of things on your mind. Staying connected shouldnt be one of them. Thats why were offering contactless delivery and setup on all devices. And for those experiencing Financial Hardship due to this crisis, well work with you to keep your service up and running. Hi because at at t, were always committed to keeping you connected. Welcome back to fast money there was a big bright spot in todays sea of red that pushed higher coming despite its biggest hold in gilead getting hit with two downgrades today. What do you make of the move i thought it was interesting in their bmo. Specifically mentioned tamiflu saying in the first year, it was amazing. 3 billion in revenues after that, it averaged 650 million in the years later i think one of the analysts for gilead was on last week, not on our show, but talking about how the took has gotten ahead of itself and where it traded up to on the back of those announcements. In general, weve been pretty bullish since y