Good morning and welcome to the show im dominic chu live at cnbc global headquarters. We begin with breaking news as stock futures indicate what could be a losing start to the day after the long holiday weekend. If these futures losses hold into the opening bell for regular cash equities trading, the dow would be opening by down by 300, the nasdaq off by 28 and the nasdaq down by 100 as well this selloff after an historic week for wall street the s p posting its best weekly gain on a percentage basis since 1974 the russell 2000 Small Cap Index posting its best week ever and as of this morning, the dow, s p 500 and nasdaq are all less than 20 off its most recent record or 52weekhigh levels. Turning to the bond mark, the twoyear treasury yield ticking higher, 23 below basis points. The tenyear benchmark treasury note yield a little below 74 basis points or 0. 74 . Well just take a look at the 30year long bond, 1. 35 the last trade there to the Energy Markets now and the group known as opec plus finalizing an historic agreement over the weekend to cut production by a record 9. 7 Million Barrels of oil per day after countless discussions between its members and partner countries. This is the single largest output cut in the cartels history. President trump weighing in on twitter, quote, saying the big oil deal with opec plus is done. This will save hundreds of thousands of energy, jobs in the United States. I would like to thank and congratulate president putin of russia, king solomon of saudi arabia i just spoke to them from the oval office. Great deal for all now, sundays emergency meeting, the second in just four days, came as oilproducing nations scrambled to reach an agreement on to help prop up oil prices amid historically low demand mexico was one of the final countries to fall in line agreeing to slash 100,000 Barrels Per Day instead of the 400,000 it was originally asked to cut wti grud right now, 23. 15, up by 1. 7 . Those cuts are set to begin on may 1st before trailing off starting at the end of june. There is hope among opec as well as the countries like u. S. And canada will join in cutting production much more on this throughout the course of the morning. Lets now go worldwide trading in europe remains closed for the Easter Monday holiday, but asia was open for business matt taylor is standing by in singapore with the overnight action there matt reporter hi there, dom a number of markets still closed in the asiapacific as well, including australia and new zealand. Those markets that were open, it was a fairly lackluster session to start the week because the volatility we saw in Oil Prices Also played into the equity trade as well. In particular, japan, it was a weak spot. We saw a lot of strength coming back into the japanese yen in fact, that traded beyond the 1. 08 level currently sitting right now about 107. 95 that impacted the trade when it came to japan. Were watching corporate earnings in asia as well Big Department store in japan after the close reporting net profit for the full year came in weaker, decline of 2. 5 . We also started to see some impact of shuttering of shops and stores and malls over the month of february playing into some of these numbers. South korea, the market was lower for the first trading day of the week. We got some export numbers as well for the first ten days of april, showing that exports there in south korea sliding by 18. 6 when it comes to south korea. And, of course, china coming out with trade da that tomorrow. That market ending weaker. The perils of broadcasting from home when your light goes off halfway through the hit. I know that feeling as well matt taylor, good luck with your lamp thank you for that. Back home the u. S. Has surpassed italy with the country with the most virusrelated deaths in the world, according to the latest data from johns hopkins, as every state in the United States is under a major disaster declaration amid the pandemic for the First Time Ever rahel solomon has more on the details. Good morning. So, president trump, lets start there, pushing back against the New York Times investigation claiming that he was warned about the potential for a pandemic numerous times earlier this year but internal divisions, reported lack of planning and, quote, his faith in his own instincts led to a halting response from a series of sunday tweets the president said the New York Times story is a fake, just like the paper itself it was criticized for moving too fast when i issued the china pan long before most others wanted to do so secretary alex azar told me nothing until later and Peter Navarros memo was same as ban, fake news. Disney will furlough 40,000 workers starting april 19th. Adding, however, it will maintain Health Insurance and other benefits for up to 12 months a group of less than 200 workers will now remain on the job during the shutdown. Sources close to cnbc say macys is tapping Investment Bank lazar to bolster the Balance Sheet as the u. S. Shutdown cuts deeper and deeper into sales the largest u. S. Department store operator has asked its advisers to help manage its liabilities and explore options that could include new financ g financing. Sources saying no debt restructuring is imminent, at least at this time dom, back to you shares of macys are pretty much flat. Back to the u. S. Markets now. Equities are coming off one of their best weeks with the s p posting its best performance since 1974 investors will get a big test this week as firstquarter Earnings Reports start to roll in from the big banks such as Jpmorgan Chase, wells fargo and bank of america as well as Johnson Johnson, dow component, and companies are expected to drop 25 in the First Quarter and greater 21 in the Second Quarter joining me now is ben ammons from medley global advisers. The earnings season is the catalyst because it drives that companys specific story just how clear will the Earnings Report be this time around and how much can you actually read into it . Good morning, dom i think you can read some of it in obviously eroding, for example, as projections show but then we have no activity on the ground to make a real good assessment, how much profits are generating going forward. I think to that point well get data looking at retail sales, Consumer Confidence and support, again, highlighting that were in the collapse of the economy currently and these earnings are added to that, its a very bleak picture, whereby the roefr in the future is still to be soon as a macro at list or strategist, how much are you looking at these particular microEconomic Data points to add to the Bigger Picture of whats going on we know the Economic Data is bad and possibly getting worse how much does that factor in, these companyspecific reports into the overall narrative for how you craft strategy one interesting thing as we cap the earnings goals is how companies are preparing for the opening of the economy how they operate because were in a new economy, so to speak. In other words, we have to have social distancing for quite a while. Thats an adjustment that is an interesting aspect of earnings this week the other end is about there is some futures still ahead of us we will see recovery to what extent these companies are confident they will be recovery in the future, how are they going to cope with that i think those two things are relevant. What exactly do investors and traders have to look at or consider what do they have to take into account as we take a look at the trajectory of the coronavirus and the potential for reopening of the economy both here and abroad i think three things to look at the first thing is that the virus does consistently moderate and from the signals were getting from the administration that were going to get measures taken in terms of testing and therapeutics to make it possible we can start reopening the economy. The second thing is data, we have leading indicators, such as jobless claims, have become extremely important. Same store stores are relevant, too. That needs to be watched because any change there will give us a sense of how strong the recovery will be in the future. Lastly, we do have, in general, what we call a breach, the Federal Reserve and the Central Banks have built that, the liquidity. That liquidity is really key now because months ago we had big stress and were in a much better position as to market functioning improvements, and consistency, continuation to carry us to the opening of the economy, and hopefully some time in may. Thank you very much for those market thoughts this morning be. We appreciate it. When we come back on this show, take a look at whats happening right now. What may be behind the markets muted response to opecs record cut. And the challenge of getting back to business under a new normal in china. Our live report from beijing coming up. Later on, minneapolis fed president neon the band wagon oa vshaped recovery. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Welcome back the number of new coronavirus cases in Mainland China has climbed to a fiveweek high with more than 100 confirmed cases yesterday. That uptick as that country looks to get back to work following its lockdown to contain that virus spread. Cnbcs eunice yoon is joining us now. What steps is being taken to get people back to work. Increased Health Monitoring people are asked to prove they most likely dont have the coronavirus with the help of Technology Reporter walk around beijing and its hard to miss these bar codes meant to get businesses back to work i want to go to a japanese restaurant to get into the building, not only do i have to get a Temperature Check and sign my name, but scan these codes that shows where ive been for the past 14 days at the restaurant i have to do the same thing this restaurant says, one code is enough. The owner says with this code system, we have a better idea if a customer is safe or not. Tech giants alibaba and tencent have been working with authorities, so individuals are green, yellow or red the qr code requires you grant permission to your mobile operator to check on your movements. As you can imagine, the codes raise privacy concerns its unclear what medical data is collected, medical records, for example. Authorities say once the pandemic is over the information will be destroyed. Whatever the case, more and more businesses in china are asking to use the codes because at the end of the day, they believe that these codes will build Consumer Confidence. Part of the reason businesses feel more comfortable because if your code comes up yellow, that means you have to be in selfquarantine. If it comes up as red, it means that you should be in government quarantine so, people feel like most likely they wont see people who have yellow or red codes, dom like i said in the piece, it raises a lot of privacy issues. This is interesting because you mention that the business comfort or confidence is a key part of this because you want businesses to open up again and this whole tracking process, this monitoring process, this bar code process could be huge is it actually now translating into consumer or individual behavior have you seen more people comfortable enough to go back into the stores, back into some aspects of normal life can we expect to see more people going to restaurants and businesses now reporter definitely. In china, obviously, some of the businesses we talked to said people would push back in the beginning, they felt uncomfortable. Because of the circumstance, they understand its a pandemic, so, its odd, but people have gotten quite used to the idea they have to go through Temperature Checks, they have to register their ids, write down their cell phone numbers, give up a lot of the privacy, including your Health Information as well as your whereabouts over the past 14 days in order to go back to the shops or eat at restaurants. Because there is a need and a desire to have a bit more of a normal life, people decide they are going to give up some of that privacy in order to go out and buy that new apple speaker, for example. Its going to be a big debate here in the United States, how much in terms of Civil Liberties will we give up as a nation in order to prevent this kind of spread of virus. Well see if that debate plays out in the coming weeks. Thanks for that. Still on deck for the show bracing for a pork production shortfall. Why the Worlds Largest pork producer is shutting production at a major u. S. Facility. Comments from venture capitalist going viral as the Airlines Look to the feds for more bailouts amid the pandemic. Were back right after this. On main street today, people are getting wiped out. And right now rich ceos are not, boards that had horrible governance are want, hedge funds are not, people are. 6 Million People just this week alone basically saying, holy mack ra mack recommend, i dont know how im going to make expenses for the next six weeks, days its happening to individual americans and what weve done is disproportionately prop up and protect poor performing ceos, companies and boards you have to wash these people out. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. Aand were here for you ry day fespecially now,rs. Doing Everything Possible to keep you connected. Through the resilience of our network and people. We can keep learning, keep sharing, keep watching, and most of all, keep together. Its the job weve always done. It is the job we will always do. Its only human to find inspiration in nature. And also find answers. Our search to transform. Farm waste into renewable natural gas led chevron to partner with california bioenergy. Working to provide an alternative source of power. For a cleaner way forward. Welcome back what youre seeing right there, live shots of times square in new york city. Midtown manhattan. Its still dark out there and a lot less traffic given the shelterinplace orders. New york is coming off another deadly week as the state remains the number one u. S. Virus hot spot nbcs phillip mena with the latest good morning. It is eerie to see times square in that state. The coronavirus is being hit the hardest the death toll, one of the hardest hit states is new york death toll surpassing 8,000 but experts say they are seeing a decline in new hospitalizations due to social distancing measures state Officials Say the crisis isnt over just yet. Mayor de blasio announced schools will remain closed for the rest of the school year until fall andrew cuomo says, not so fast he says the mayor doesnt have the authority to close the district, which serves 1 million schools. In neighboring new jersey, governor murphy announced an executive order to cut the capacity of all train, bus and light rail transit by 50 of their maximum. The move ames to cut down on crowd sizes and asked all passengers to wear face coverings. This goes into effect at 8 00 p. M. Tonight. Straight ahead on the show, trouble ahead for the housing sector as the virus continues to take a big economic toll plus, not bouncing back any time soon. A new warning from minneapolis fed president Neel Kashkari. Cnbc returns right after this. Stocks poised to kick off the new trading week in the red as investors gear up for a new round of corporate Earnings Reports. Meanwhile, oil prices getting an initial boost after opec and its partner countries agree to an historic Production Cut on oil and as the u. S. Airline industry remains at a standstill, the u. S. Government is attaching new terms to a potential bailout of the industry its monday, april 13, 2020 and you are watching cnbc. Welcome back to the show im dominic chu live at cnbc global headquarters. Lets get right to the markets halfway through the 5 00 a. M. Eastern time hour, looking at futures right now, we have seen a slight improvement over, perhaps, the last hour or so still the dow jones is implied lower by 271 points at the opening bell the s p would lose about 33 points and the nasdaq down by just about 85 again, a slight improvement over the course of the past half hour, hour or so in terms of the trajectory of todays declines now, this mornings potential selloff comes after an historic week for wall street the s p posting its best weekly gain on a percentage basis since 1974 the russell 2000 Small Cap Index has posted its best week ever on record as of this morning, the dow, the s p 500 and nasdaq are all less than 20 off their most recent record highs taking away at the bond market as well, we are seeing an uptick to yields so people selling off some of the safety of those Treasury Bonds and notes pushing yields higher. Twoyear benchmark note yields a little below 0. 23 tenyear, 0. 74 and the 30year long bond, 1. 35 the last trade there. Lets go worldwide trading in europe remains closed for the Easter Monday holiday but asia was open for business matt taylor is standing by in singapore with the overnight action matt hi, dom a number of markets are still closed in this part of the world, including australia and new zealand for an extended easter break we also had a Public Holiday in hong kong as well. We had a number of other major markets like japan, south korea and china are open lets start with japan because we did see a fair bit of weakness coming through there on the back of strength we saw in the japanese yen strengthening beyond the 108 level, 107. 90 is about where we sit and that impacted the nikkei which traded down 2. 3 at the close of trade were watching corporate earnings in asia this well this week in japan a Big Department store reporting a 2. 5 decline in net profit already impacted in the month of february by a number of closures of Shopping Centers and retail outlets. Well likely see a bit more when it comes to the downside coming through in numbers beyond this still, we did see evidence of that in the month of february. South korea, we got some numbers out there on the export front as well exports falling sharply in the first ten days of april. Sliding by 18. 6 on this time from a year ago. That compares to the prior month where we saw a gain of more than 20 . The shanghai composite was also weaker this market has been in positive territory for much of the session. Were awaiting march trade numbers due out from china tomorrow this, of course, ahead of the big number well be watching at the end of the week which is the q1 gdp. Matt taylor in singapore, thank you. Investors are gearing up for the earnings season to shift into high gear take a look at what the expectations are right now and key sectors we are watching. In terms of s p 500, according to data from refinitive, these three sectors could show the biggest declines in earnings s p 500 Energy Companies would show an energy decline of nearly 50 at this stage. The industrial sector could show an almost 30 decline. The retail side of things, Consumer Discretionary off by 29 as well. Those are the worst hit sectors or the expectations are there for the worst hit sectors. Take a look at these sectors these will hold up relatively well communication services, all of that Video Conferencing were doing could lead to an 8 rise in earnings. Technology is a rise up nearly 3 and utilities up 2. 5 as well people starting to stay home, use a lot more energy, water, gas, everything else, utilities. Maybe that helps out that sector overall. For more insight on the markets and the earnings season coming up, lets bring in gina sanchez, cnbc contributor the earnings season is going to be key on so many levels but how much clarity are you going to expect from all of these Earnings Reports look, i think right now that there is a real mix. If you look, for example, at some of the highest earning pe earning sectors youre talking about Technology Communications like you said, theyve not just theyve not always stayed theyve not only kept you know, theyve remained expensive in fact, theyre expected to continue to be quite good in terms of the earning season. Retail, Consumer Discretionary, even staples are even having a very hard time that segment is im not sure that is priced for what is about to hit in terms of earnings. Lets talk about what then is priced in terms of the hit to earnings there is an argument that weve seen a massive decline from peak to trough in terms of the overall market that is already priced in a good amount of that how much more or how worse could it get as we start to see this earnings season progress and companies actually report what their outlook is i think thats going to be the hard part, the outlook right now the market is priced for a very brief interpretation. If this interpretation continues into the summer and, you know, god forbid into the fall, then youre talking about a repricing that would have to happen even in some of the sectors that have already been hit right now earnings are expected to be terrible gain the aggregae and claw their way back out and by the Fourth Quarter, most of the sectors are expected to be positive that is whats priced into the market right now. Lets talk then about what exactly is not priced in, this idea that you could have another wave, if you will . Theres a slight bit of optimism that theres plateau in certain u. S. Hot spots and global hot spots in terms of cases per day, deaths per day is this something where the market can feel a little more comfortable about that plateauing or could we see Something Else develop with the coronavirus that leads to another leg lower in markets i think what you have to see in order to get us up and out of this confidently is you have to continue to see better tracking, better testing, better ability to maintain and to keep this coronavirus contained without lockdown mechanisms because obviously the lockdown is costing us tremendously. Its a tremendous expense we are bearing and not everybody is bearing it equally what is not priced in on the downside is we do get a second wave, that it takes longer to get a vaccine, that there are any number of terrible scenarios that really amount to an elongated recovery out of this pandemic. If you look historically at pandemics, they normally dont last a long time i think thats the main reason the markets are priced the way they are. There has been a nice bounce off the lows weve seen and that could be because investors and traders are looking beyond the pandemic right now if you take a look at the overall picture for what types of industries could be poised to benefit more, what goes on your Shopping List right now . Well, obviously theres cheap and then theres cheap for a reason you look at the cheapest stuff right now, youre looking at energy and financials. And, you know, the question is, what are the banks going to have to take onto their Balance Sheet as a part of their loan programs and will they be able to make any money in the process whats interesting about this, dom, is the whole point i mentioned that the whole market is pricing this to be a very shortterm a very shortterm experience even the yield curve is pricing that way the yield curve has gotten quite steep. And theoretically speaking, that should be a benefit to banks with rates this low, thats challenging. Banks right now are priced theyre the absolute cheapest part of the market and i think its a part to watch. Banks and energy, key focus for a lot of traders and investors coming up this earnings season. Thank you for that. To the markets and energy. The group known as opec plus finalizing an historic agreement over the weekend to cut production by a record 9. 7 Million Barrels of oil per day after countless discussions between its members and partner countries. This is the single largest output cut in history. Joining me, chief oil analyst anrita is it enough i think its a relatively easy question. The demand declines are far, far severe you could be looking at 20 million decline drops in april if some of these measures continued through may, demand will remain depressed as well. Remember the headline number might be 9. 7 actual cuts will be more around 7 Million Barrels per day. The cuts on iraq is not feasible. So that means the actual output cut wont be even as forceful as the headline number. What exactly are we cutting from what benchmark level are we using to say, hey, heres the 9. 7 Million Barrels or the effective 7 or 8 Million Barrels youre speaking of its olympic math if you come to opec numbers. The baseline that the group has used for opec plus cuts is october 2018 remember, thats when all producers search production. This is when trump had said he wouldnt be giving waivers to iran saudi arabia and russia took an even higher number in 2018 both agreed to 11 Million Barrels as the baseline. However, in april we all know after the opec plus deal fell apart in march, the countries surged production even higher than those levels. Saudi production was, they claim, close to 12. 5 Million Barrels per day. The real cuts for the ggc countries are bigger than the 23 implied by the table they published. But for all the other countries its actually because the october 2018 baseline number is actually inflated. Amirita, were showing viewers prices for wti crude and brent crude. Wti trading 22. 84 a barrel, and brent 31 a barrel, or thereabouts. As weve seen these prices come into play over the last week or so, how much, i guess, Economic Activity is priced in with the oil market at these levels right now, are we pricing in things get resolved a little more, things open up by june, july, august is that how the oil market is reading things right now i would say so because the front month prices are the lowest and subsequently the prices are going higher. Its very steep so wti, the second month already, 6 higher than the front month i think that is kind of saying we will slowly start to normalize after june. If we are going to slowly normalize after june, what exactly is the outlook for many oilproducing countries . I want to talk specifically what the outlook is for u. S. Shale producers. They seem like the ones that could be hardest hit they have some higher relative costs of extraction and production what exactly does that mean for the u. S. Shale business . When i say were going to start to normalize, im talking about demand we are going to be building record amount of inventories in the next few weeks and months. Thats going to take months if not years to run down. When i speak to them they are putting crude in places they didnt even know exacted thats the problem even though demand starts to slowly recover, we will have such a big overhang that prices will remain very much at around these levels maybe even slightly lower or a touch higher for the bulk of this year if not for a good part of at least the first half next year thats the issue for u. S. Shale. Like you say, its higher cost we cant see how u. S. Shale recovers very quickly from this. Production declines are going to be immense. A complex situation for sure. Thank you for joining us this morning. Always great to get your thoughts. Coming up on the show, the prognosis on when the u. S. May reopen for business from one of the white houses top health officials. Plus, the new requirements Jpmorgan Chase is putting in place to secure a home loan. Cnbc is back in a moment yes. The first word to any adventure. But when allergies and congestion strike, take allegrad. A nondrowsy antihistamine plus a powerful decongestant. So you can always say yes to putting your true colors on display. Say yes to allegrad. Welcome back to the show the u. S. Has surpassed italy with the country with the highest number of coronavirus deaths, now at more than 22,000. This as white house officials express cautious optimism about the outbreak slowing down in this country rahel solomon has more on the outbreak headlines. White house Health Adviser dr. Fauci giving a somewhat positive outlook on the u. S. s bounce back from covid19. He says parts of the country may start to reopen as soon as next month, but he also warns it will not be a quick process it is not going to be a light switch that we say, okay, it is now june, july, click, the light switch goes back on. It is going to be depending on where you are in the country, the nature of the outbreak that youve already experienced and the threat of an outbreak you may not have experienced Worlds Largest pork producer is warning of a risk to americas meat supply. Smithfield foods says it will keep the plant in sioux falls, south dakota, which accounts for a third of the pork production in the u. S. Good news in the fight against the coronavirus. New data in the new england journal of medicine shows twothirds of severely ill patients saw their condition improvement after treatment of an experimental drug by gilead the author called the findings hopeful but also added its difficult to interpret the results since they do not use it with a control group. Jpmorgan chase raised its standards for customers applying for a new mortgage they will need a credit score of at least 700 and also required to make a downpayment equal to 20 of the homes value. Reuters says the move is moved at cushing lending risks tied to the growing disruption from coronavirus. You can see shares of Jpmorgan Chase are down about 1. 5 in free market. Back to you. Thank you very much. To the Airline Sector now where treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin is telling major u. S. Airline carriers he wants them to repay some of the 25 billion in cash grants approved by Congress Just this last month. Phil lebeau joins us on the cnbc news line. Phil, what can you tell us about what treasury is asking and why airlines are responding the way they are right now well, theyre not happy with this, dom. Remember, when Congress Approved the 50 billion in government aid as part of the c. A. R. E. S. Act, 25 billion was to be in loans, the other 25 billion was to be in what was termed direct payroll cash grants. In other words, money the airlines did not need to repay the law was written so there is wide latitude for the treasury secretary to set the terms for those cash grants. Many thought, okay, well, theyll take an equity stake in the airline, which is part of the agreement, if these grants are awarded, but also the way its set up is 70 of the money that would be allocated into each airline would be in the form of a cash grant they would not have to repay 30 would be a lowinterest loan directly paid back to the Treasury Department. Now, part of the conditions are that there are no layoffs until september 30th by airlines that take this grant. In addition, they would also have to agree to award basically an amount equal to 3 of the money given in stock warrants that go to the Treasury Department the problem from the airlines perspective, and i talked to a number of executives over the weekend, is they have already taken out more lines of credit, more debt, billions in debt over the last two weeks, three weeks and when you look at what fitz said on friday regarding a number of the airlines, that they are going to be cutting their credit rating, theyre concerned about how much leverage is already in the airline, the fact the Treasury Department is adding even more is a concern for the airlines because now they may have to go back to the credit market separate from this well see how this shakes out as the discussions continue. Whats interesting to me here is how much is being made of the idea theyre talking about getting stock warrants in laymens terms, what it means is that the government will actually then own or have options to own an equity stake in these airlines given parts of these bailouts this harkens back to the financial crisis area when the government was bailing out industries and then taking stakes how exactly how big could it get . How much could the government demand in the future with an equity stake if things get progressively worse for the Airline Industry the way its set right now, lets say hypotheticalicly, you earn airline and the cash grant award, which has been cal lated by a formula based on your passenger miles, the size of your airline lets say its 2 billion. Of that, 3 would be awarded in stock warrants back to the Treasury Department set at the strike price at the end of trading on thursday. Theoretically, lets say the stock warrants are awarded and two years from now, the Treasury Department says, okay, we want to cash these in it could be worth far more than what the amount that is awarded in stock warrants as of right now when you accept this stock grant. It truly depends on when the Treasury Department would exercise those warrants. And in theory, dom, most people are saying, okay, you would exercise them. Take that money out of the market to repay the government im not sure the government has any interest in holding onto those long term. Sure, sure. Phil, its obviously a very fascinating capital structure story right now. While we have you, i want to get your take on this. We want to take a closer look at boeing as well the Company Reportedly tapping Investment Banks, lazar and evercore for securing Financial Life lines and as potential u. S. Government or private sector assistance on their front as well on top of the 60 billion its requested from the u. S. Government last month. What exactly is going on with boeing with regard to its aid and assistance and Capital Needs . Its all about assessing what the options are out there. I know from talking with boeing executives that they want to make sure that the credit markets are as active as possible because they may not want to take a loan from the federal government or a Loan Guarantee from the federal government depending on what the terms are and whether or not there is a better option in the private market relative to what they may take from the Treasury Department so, this is what boeing executives are trying to figure out right now. One reason lazard has been reportedly hired is they want to look at all options out there. At the same time, theres a substantial cash going on right now, which is why, we confirmed this, that boeing is considering cutting up the 10 of its payroll. Now, some of that could be through voluntary layoffs, some through retirement, some through attrition. Clearly the commercial division, which has no production going on right now, it is being squeezed substantially. Boeing is trying to see what options are out there and looking for the best option when it finally makes a move. Aerospace, defense and commercial airlines, some of the sectors being most hit in this Coronavirus Crisis phil will he bow always on top of that. Faux for joining us this morning. On deck for the show, the bleak forecast minneapolis fed president Neel Kashkari has on getting the economy back up and running amid the coronavirus outbreak. You can always watch or listen to us live on the go with the cnbc app we cannot do all the good that the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. Edward jones is itswell aware of that. Et. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Earnings season kicking off unofficially tuesday, wednesday, thursday youll see big banks like j. Morgan chase, citi, and managers at blackrock, dow components Johnson Johnson reports on tuesday and United Health care reports on wednesday. Neel kashkari is forecasting a gloomy road ahead. It would be wonderful if a new therapy were developed in the next few months that people would feel confident to go back to work and we would have a vshaped recovery, but bar some health care miracle like that, it seems like well have various fadeses of flaring rollups, different parts of the economy turning back on, maybe turning back off again this could be a long, hard road we have head of us until we get to either an effective therapy or vaccine its hard for me to see a vshaped recovery under that scenario. Joeing me is chief economist at rsm joe, im interesting because it doesnt seem like it could be that easy. We have nearly 16, 17 million jobs, unemployment claims filed in just the last three weeks its hard to sigh vshape recovery here despite the fact this is more like, say, a Natural Disaster than the great financial crisis of 20082009. Well, neel has it right, the first thing we have to talk about when were talking economics, how quickly can we get therapeutics to the public and when can we see a vaccine . Then well cqu qeue forecasting after that i think next fall, early winter. The important thing here is, can we get the treatment to the public quick enough to mitigate the spread of the disease and offset the negative economic effects that will come with having a start and stop economy over the next 18 months. Lets talk about, then, as an economist, your job is to try to predict the trajectory of how things will look in the future how clear is it right now and how big of a hurdle is it for economists like you to make predictions about whats going to happen . I ask because the estimates have been all over the board. We know its going to be bad, but just how bad when youre an economist doing this job right now, its humility, not huberous its forecasting on a very cloudy day i think what we can say is im pretty sure were going to see unemployment over 20 in the near term. Youre not going to see a vshape recovery i think its going to look like what we call a nike swoosh deep down turn thats going to take a couple of years earlier in the show you had a ray of hope talking about technology, media, communications, health care, biotech. There will be good plays in good areas of the economy but the things we need to worry about is leisure, hospitality, retail, portions of the Manufacturing Sector those arent going to come back so quickly when i look out over the horizon here, its going to be tough april and may are going to be the worst months of the year i dont expect a material rebound until the Fourth Quarter of this year where i expect over 20 growth but thats going to come on the tail of basically excess of 30 decline in the Second Quarter so, joe, then what exactly from an economist standpoint are the most important data points, whether Economic Data, corporate data for you in trying to predict whats going to happen in the coming quarters so the initial jobless claims every week are the number one data thats going to give us an idea of when we actually hit the bottom second, im looking at data at the ports to see when the Global Economy begins to rebound. That will be the green chutes im looking at most closely. Inside the corporate earnings data, the tmt data, that will tell us that things are beginning to get better and then we want to see that spill over into a modest rebounding Consumer Discretionary all right, joe, economist over at rsm. Thank you very much for that cnbcs continuing market coverage picks up after this commercial break its a challenging market. Edward jones is well aware of that. Which is why were ready to listen. And ready to help you find opportunity. So. Lets talk. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] good morning stocks coming off their best week in more than a decade but futures pointing to a slide of under 300 points at the open the size of the outbreak in new york passing the totals of every other foreign country, but new signs of hope as the number of icu admissions decline. Major Oil Producers agreeing to the biggest Production Cut in history. Well show you how oil prices are responding its monday, april 13, 2020. Squawk box begins right now. Good morning, everybody. Im becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. Were watching the futures this morning. As joe mentioned, we are looking at stocks after their best week in about 45 years. Its been about 45 1 2 years since the s p has seen a performance like this. S p was up 12. 1 last week the dow was up b 10. 6 this morning you are seeing a little bit of a pullback about 300 points for the futures, for the dow futures s p futures are down 37 points the nasdaq is off by about 92. The best performance for the s p since 1974 thats coming on the same were we learned another 6. 6 million americans filed for unemployment were looking at unemployment numbers of