Done here you see the home builders, weve had a terrific rally in the builders in the last few days but hovnanian was 29 just a month ago. Its a 9 stock right now. Yes, weve had a great rally, but bear in mind how far weve come and how many more headlines we have yet to get through a lot of people are also optimistic watching the vix drop it has dropped exactly in half since march 15th it was 86 on an intraday basis march 15th, you see it at 43 exactly a 50 drop thats making a lot more people a lot more optimistic. A lot more arguments that the markets are higher have been mitigated by the fact that weve just had such a big rally and its hard to push against this rally right now. Look at these stocks right here and how much they have moved since the market bottomed, the february 21st close, which is when things really started get getting bad. Walmarts up, verizon is only down 1 . Merck and 3m down a few percent. This is when things started getting really serious you see how much the market has come back. A lot of stocks, movers today. Levi strauss, pinterest, mcdonalds withdrawing guidance, dicks furloughing workers tesla furloughing workers. This is important to remind yourself of what were still going through when you think the worst is behind us is it bull market or bear market just bear in mind, look what weve had here we have a 23 rally off of the lows thats good news were 20 from the 52week highs. That was 35 a few weeks ago so where are we . Is it a bull market or bear market i just call it markets in the middle and i think thats the best way to characterize it right now we can go either way, still. Tough headlines ahead of us. Markets in the middle thank you, bob lets get over to Rick Santelli who is tracking the moves in the bond market, rick . If you look at the short end today, unlike the last several days, rates in the short end are a little squeamish today, not showing much upside. So priced more to the upside than the down side we are steepening the curve, but it isnt really a bear steepening, its all based on the long end look at the differences as you look at the difference of 30year bonds. We had a great aux todction tod. Peter boockvar tweeting out, you know, the treasury secretary ought to notice, only 17 billion 30s and they were gobbled up maybe we need to do more at this rate i would agree with that. Lets look at tens this is from midmarch the reason its so interesting is, the high close from the 18th is basically 120 and thats the high close after the alltime low from the 9th of march, which was 54. You could see kind of flattening out. Finally, the dollar index. Listen, its choppy in foreign exexchan exchange, but still aiming up and strong with regard to Global Demand tyler . Mr. Stantelli, thank you ver much as we await Steve Liesmans review of the fed minutes, lets turn to two experts to talk about the markets, the economy, and if we get interrupted by steve, those fed minutes samant samantha azzarello, and michelle meyer, b of a Global Research head for u. S. Economics. Welcome to both of you, ladies samantha, let me start with you. I guess im a little bit concerned that the market is ahead of itself. Do you feel that way i would agree with that if you think back to 2008, we had more than ten bear market rallies. And its very likely that we could be in one of those right now. So not going to be dismissive of the positive news were seeing and the market responding to that, in turn, but we think its too early for us to have hit the bottom, just given how the Economic Data and the corporate Earnings Data is likely to play out. There is so much, samantha, we dont know. We dont know about what the shape of the recovery is, u, l, v, whatever that spells love, doesnt it we could all use a little love right now, but what is your best guess about how quickly the economy recovers when it starts to open up later this spring or summer so speaking of those letters, we are of the view that the shape of the recession is, in fact, going to be ushaped but to your point, which is a very good one, right, how does it look at the bottom . How long does that stall and in our view, we likely need to see a vaccine for to us truly get out of that bottom of the ushape. We do think, though, that therell be a fair amount of pentup demand, and if china is any indication, were starting to hear on the ground news from china that real estate is coming back, car sales, people are back out in restaurants so i think its really interesting that when we do come out of this, we do expect demand to come back and the economy to surge. Michelle, we want to bring you into the conversation now. On the bright side, as has been well reported, the fed has already been very aggressive as far as stabilizing the economy, but looking ahead, how much more ammunition do they have in their tool kit what can investors look forward to now i do think theres more that policy makers can do, both in terms of the Federal Reserve and in terms of the fiscal authority. So in terms of the fed, yes, theyre expanding their Balance Sheet rapidly. Theyre buying unlimited amounts of treasuries and mortgages right now, so unlimited qe theyre actively engaged in a number of different markets in terms of credit facilities, funding facilities, and the like but theres more they can do in that their Balance Sheet could expand a whole lot more. There really isnt a cap to their Balance Sheet right now in terms of its share of gdp. And they can be they can lower some of the rates that theyre charging if that is needed and if you look at what the fed has done thus far, theyve been really responsive. They take signals from Market Participants if one of their policies or facilities is not quite doing what it needs to do, they go ahead and they change. They adapt and they try their hardest, i think, to make sure that theres liquidity in the market. So, yeah, i think the fed absolutely can do more michelle, samantha, were going to interrupt here. Stay with us, as we go to steve liesman, who has now had some time to digest the fed minutes from that meeting a couple of weeks ago. The emergency meeting on a weekend. Hi, steve. Tyler, im going to correct you right off the bat, it was three weeks ago, which in coronavirus time, is about seven years. But this is what the fed was thinking on a weekend that was scheduled for wednesday. They said they expect the funds rate to be at zero or a quarter percent and remain at that level until the economic effects of the virus pass they said, the nearterm Economic Outlook had deteriorated sharply when they met, and they were willing and prepared to use their full set of tools to support credit markets. And you can see over the ensuing three weeks, tyler, that they ended up or have used at least a very large collection of their set of tools that they have to help credit markets. And there has been some success in that with still additional work for the Federal Reserve to do in many credit markets. So, tyler, this was the first i dont know what you want to call it, really the second emergency meeting that they had had. They had previously done 50, and this is where they brought it down to zero and a quarter and then they announced 700 billion of additional quantitative easing or purchases for credit markets. Since then, tyler, i think there have been commitments for, i dont know how much, but certainly, in the trillions of dollars since even this meeting took place, which was historic in and of itself so let me come back, then, steve, if i might to rahels very good question from a moments ago. What does the fed still have on the shelf . I suppose the simple answer is, they can make money. Well, yes and essentially, thats what theyre doing. So still on the shelf is this main Street Lending facility tyler, this main Street Lending facility that the fed has could expand the Balance Sheet by 4 or k5d trillion if they use this simple tentoone ratio of treasury money to fed money theyve used in the past just so people would understand, the fed would take 100 of collateral and the treasury would take the first 10 piece of whatever losses there the fed would be protected using that 450 billion that was given to the Federal Reserve in the cares act. There is still several areas, tyler, where the Federal Reserve has some problems in the markets. You have this Mortgage Service issue that diana olick has written a lot about. You have people not paying their mortgages. So the people the companies that are supposed to pay it are in really a bind right now of liquidity. So thats another area high yield credit is another issue. Theres all of main street theyve done a lot, i dont know what percentage, but a big chunk of the economy left for liquidity and credit problems. All right, steve liesman, thank you very much. And well talk more about that mortgage issue just a little bit later. Back to our conversation with michelle and samantha. Michelle, let me ask you this. Your prediction for Second Quarter gdp or b of as is a negative 30 print what is that going to look like in terms of unemployment and in terms of bankruptcies and in terms of general economic distress and the effect that it is going to have on consumers as they dont have money to spend so the numbers are stark, as you know a 30 decline in one quarter is quite aggressive and that comes out to what we think will be a 7 decline in q1 and most of the downturn is happening simply, its now so the last weeks of march and april, we were seeing this very acute decline in the economy and particularly in consumer spending, as part of the economy has been effectively shut down so what does that mean it means that jobs are being cut. We see that in the initial jobless claims numbers about 10 Million People filed for jobless claims over the last two weeks. Lets see what happens this week tomorrow, we get another number. We think it could be another 6. 5 Million People that file for Unemployment Insurance the april jobs report, which is released in early may, is going to show, you know, between 10 to 15 Million People have lost their jobs during this period of time the Unemployment Rate will very quickly spike into double digits so thats all known, i think, at this point the big question to me is what comes next how do we get out of it . Whats the timing and how effective are these policy tools . That is the great mystery samantha, final question to you. I know that you urge people to stick with their basic plan not to panic, but maybe to make moves around the margins, around the edges of their portfolios. What would those marginal, edgy moves be right now what are you talking about there . Thats right. Were not comfortable yet, you know, talking about opportunities. Were just not there in markets given that more needs to shake out. When were talking about on the edge, around the margins, were really talking about getting back the plan. So for example, a 60 40 stock bond portfolio from the beginning of the year to now has shifted a lot. Most investors have become more conservative just by the fact that weve had massive market moves. So adding to equities around the margins makes sense to get back up to plan and particular sectors we like splernl, thats going to be consumer staples, its going to be technology and health care, given everything thats going on right now. Okay. Samantha azzrello and michelle meyer, we appreciate your insight. Today, Bernie Sanders officially withdrawing from the president ial race, making joe biden the apparent nominee lets get to Kayla Tausche now for the latest kayla . Reporter hi, rahel the vermont progressive is exiting the race, but in election vernacular, the word suspend is important it gives the candidate discretion over how to use funds and direct staff that have been assembled in thefrt. And in sanders case, its especially important he told supporters in a live stream earlier today that while hes getting out of the race, he wants to stay on the ballot ahead of a slew of june primaries to try to influence the partys platform heres sanders in his own words. I will stay on the ballot in all remaining states and continue to gather delegates while Vice President biden will be the nominee we must continue working to assemble as many delegates as possible at the Democratic Convention where we will be able to exert significant influence over the party platform. The most recent delegate count according to nbc news had joe biden, the former Vice President , at close to 1,200 delegates. He needs 1,991 to become the presumptive nominee. Sanders intends to stay on the ballot in many of those critical june 2nd primary states. As for president trumps reelection campaign, they are already gearing up for november. The Campaign ManagerBrad Parscale tweeting, with bernie suspending his campaign, its clear that the dem establishment got the candidate they wanted in sleepy joe, but biden and sanders agree on all the big issues, they are both the same clearly trying to pin biden as a socialist, as they have for sanders in all of the previous months well see exactly how the messaging is shaping up as this Campaign Comes clear into view now. Guys kayla, thank. A little bit more clarity for the markets, which im sure a lot of investors can appreciate. Coming up, markets hanging on to gains. It looks like materials, utilities, and real estate right now leading the s p 500 rally. This is after yesterdays big reversal and the Small BusinessLending Program has already processed billions of dollars, but when will companies actually get their hands on that cash the ceo of oceanfirst, a Regional Bank in new jersey, will join us and tell us what hes hearing on the ground well have much more coming up after this we cannot do all the good that the world needs. But right now, the world needs all the good that we can do. To everyone working to keep america strong, thank you. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Well, welcome back, everybody. Glad you could join us Small Businesses have been applying for billions of dollars worth of loans from the governments Lending Program, but when will companies actually start seeing that cash kate rogers has the latest details. Hi, kate hi, tyler weve been speaking to Business Owners all over the country, dozens in recent days, and we did find one that made some progress so far. Hes the owner of a Primary Care Clinic in florida. He says he applied on saturday with chase by tuesday, he had a 120,000 p ppp loan cash in hand. In fact, he was able to get payroll out the door today for his nine employees for friday. But more broadly, the sba say figures that have gone out from banks to Small Businesses are not yet available. What they can tell us, 330,000 applications have been assigned those sbaetran loan numbers many businesses are still in a holding pattern, waiting for these firstcome, firstserved funds. Today we heard from Steven Mnuchin trying to ease some of tharz fears that this cash might run out. I want to assure all Small Businesses out there, we will not run out of money the president has asked us to go back to congress we hope they pass this tomorrow and friday and we want to assure everybody, if you dont get a loan this week, youll get a loan next week or the following week the money will be there. Mnuchin is working with congress on that additional 250 billion for pp rks for their part, Congressional Democrats want half of that money to be ear marked for Community Banks that serve farmers and businesses that are owned by women, minorities, and veterans a lot of concern about this cash running out, but also concerns about who this cash ends up going to back over you guys kate, what are you hearing about the frustration level of some applicants who allege that there are hairballs in the process, that the banks arent exactly making this easy you know, tyler, weve heard from people who are in all different phases some are in line, waiting to hear from their banks. So have actual applications and some have secured those e tran loan numbers that be have been assigned to their loans. That is an important step. But were hearing that some banks are waiting on further guidance from the sba and treasury about how to get these funds out the door when it comes to dispersement. Which is really important. We did ask the administration about that we were told that they cant comment on what the banks might be looking for so a lot of back and forth here, potentially some finger pointing, but good news today, we did hear from a business that actually got funded. I hope to hear from many more in the days to come kate, thank you for your reporting. As kate said, banks both large and small are getting flooded with applications for loans from the governments L