Russell is up 3. 25 . So steve, i turn to you. We have in the last hour, Bernie Sanders out. That gave stocks another leg you have a comment from dr. Fauci today that the virus turnaround is likely after this week and you have the new york city mayor de blasio saying that there are enough ventilators, he thinks, to get through this week all of that seemingly is enough to keep the market where it is but we saw what happened yesterday when everything evaporated later in the day. Does this have staying power i think it does, but within this range that were in, with the downside being where we hit the lows before, im hoping we dont retest that. The focus will turn shortly to how we get back to work once the virus is over. And i do believe thats what took the market down somewhat yesterday afternoon, in addition to it just being up too high, too big a move because when Governor Cuomo said four to eight weeks, tristate area is going to come back, people are thinking, okay, how is that going to work . Whats going to be the longterm impact but generally, youre seeing optimism there i think its very positive i also believe that youre queueing in part off a tenyear thats recovered were up to 0. 75 yield, which is low historically, but well off a low that was 0. 55 yield. So optimism is always going to reign in the markets thats why theyre up 90 of the time meghan, you know, i do hear from some people today who think that this is just a euphoric sort of idea that were peaking or we may have peaked in the virus or certainly close to it in new york. And that the move of two days ago, yes, we had some selling into it yesterday, and then this move today is that more euphoria of a sense and its going to give itself back in short order. What do you think . Well, we dont know if the bottom is in i would say, historically, it would be very unusual to have the pullback in the market that we saw and a straight up recovery if you look at 2008, 2009, you had two instances of very sizable pullbacks in the market. And two bear market rallies. One of 12 and the other one of more than 20 before the market fell another 27 after that. And so, as we look at it, we think the focus has been on the peaks in new cases were looking at Second Quarter gdp thats probably the worst that we have ever seen in history, anywhere from 30 to 60 , if these mitigation measures stay in place for 45 to 90 days. We know that we know its going to be ugly on the way down whats harder to model is the uncertainty around the Human Behavior on the other side of things and we do look at examples like china, who is arguably two to three months ahead of our curve. We know that service demand there is still pretty lacklus r lackluster you know, its not a perfect example, because they handle the situation quite differently. I think theres a certain amount of fear amongst the Chinese People that maybe we dont have here, regarding a flareup again, but we think were not quite out of the woods and we have to be patient, to be cautious so, underweight equities. Jim, youve got 8 cash and thats the position youve had you questioned yesterday as to whether you were going to be wrong about a test of the bottom where are you today with this move well, i havent bought anything, scott. And you know, look, i want to be i want to be wrong i want the market to go higher i suspect that im not wrong and heres what the tugofwar is youve got an incredible negative in this virus, which we just still dont know when were coming out of this shutdown and what the recovery looks like, okay thats the negative. We also have this positive, which is the fiscal stimulus and by the way, the fed, and, you know, even if the current fiscal stimulus as it stands isnt enough, were talking about another 250 billion i mean, basically, were printing money all right, were all modern monetary theorists right now in the end, i think that wins out. So thats why i say a year from now, that fiscal stimulus wins out. But in the short run, i just think there is bad news thats j yet to come in terms of what the impact on earnings for Corporate America is and we have no insight, none im not trying to talk the market down. Im 92 invested but that 8 thats cash, im hanging on to it its dear currency for me. And as we get into earnings season and we have some air pockets, ill be looking to put it to work sarat, what about you are you a buyer of stocks today or are we going to retest the lows i do believe and i think everybody hag referring to this, were going to go through earnings season, one that you have never seen before and companies are not going to be talking about, heres my guidance for earnings. Its going to be, heres my guidance for revenue and i think once investors see that and you add to that the credit markets, which, you know, still are not where we like them to be, and Balance Sheets are going to be really important going through the next couple of quarters, whether its one, two, or three quarters, nobody knows. And kind of what im looking for are companies that will come through this with Balance Sheets that they can use or actually can depend on, and i think the opportunities ahead will be a little bit more. You know, i dont think we retest the lows. If we do, it could be pretty short. But i think there will be more opportunities ahead. Im not selling into this, but im kind of using this as an opportunity to see if i can get some more stocks for sale in the next few weeks jon najarian, what are yo watching today scott, yesterday was almost historic as far as the intraday move of the market given that the volatility i mean, we went from the high to the low, scott. And a lot of people focused on the second half of the day, saying, well, investors were nervous, they were selling thats not what i was saying as you know, we track blocks of trades and ill say most Retail Investors that are watching your show, scott, are trading somewhere between a hundred shares and 2,000 shares. Thats not what the institutions are doing. So the retail was take profits, as we were up 300, 400 points yesterday, thats when we were doing it in the late afternoon, in particular, scott, the final half hour, that was algos and program trading. And you and i have talked about, when they shut trading floors. And i guess i wasnt specific enough, scott. But when we shut down trading floors, im not just talking about the cme, new york stock exchange, or chicago board option exchange. Im talking about morgans desk. When you take all of those traders out of the mix at all of these trading firms, theyre still in the market, scott, but now theyre at home on a phone, much like, you know, sarat right now, and its not the same environment. Theres not the same sharing of information. And it is a completely more volatile situation so the volatility so whats that mean question gave up 900 points yesterday, john, in the dow. Yeah, we did. And we did it, scott, because, again,there arent those intermediaries there everybody steps back at once and i think, scott, when we get these trading floors, as well as trading desks reopened, youre going to see this volatility compress dramatically. So thats my message to you, scott. Yesterday, almost an historic move intraday, and those are the really big moves that are scary from a volatility standpoint and yet volatility traded in a range like this. We would see it shrink dramatically if, indeed, dr. Fauci is right and two weeks from now or three weeks from now if we have floors as well as desks reopened, i am buying here, scott. I think this is a great opportunity and dr. Fauci, i youre right, and if indeed you are, then were going to recover nicely a vshaped bottom, scott, but certainly a recovery holds so youre a buyer yeah. Im a buyer and volatility has continued to ebb here, scott the vsx, there have been sellers in there all day a buyer of what well, lets see, today on my list, scott, believe it or not, i was buying mgs, buying wynn along with lasry yesterday, ccl, bonds, not equity. I was buying ever jose cuervo bonds today, dollardenominated bonds on this one that have gotten whacked so that was a nice opportunity im out there putting some of this money to work still got most of the money in option spreads, rather than in stocks, scott. But in the case of some of these bonds, im willing to go pretty deep on there. So, steve weiss, on docs point about being willing to buy and certainly being willing to buy on the credit side, hes not alone, right you heard lasry yesterday on our show, howard marks in his recent memo of last night, the headline being, stop playing defense. Ill read you some from it and you can make of it what you will the risks in the environment are recognized and largely understood prospective returns have turned from paltry to attractive. Security prices have declined and investors have been chastened, causing risk taking to dry up. Given these new conditions, i no longer feel defense should be favored. Im not saying the outlook is positive, says marks, im saying that conditions have changed such that caution is no longer imperative is he right . Do you agree i do agree. I think the markets fairly valued, though and i say that without knowing what the e is, because we dont know what the earnings is going to be. Its a question of what your time frame is. Forgive me for interrupting you, steve its a question, too, what asset class youre talking about howard marks is not spending his days looking at the equity market all day long. Hes a credit guy. Thats where he cut his teeth and made his billions of dollars. And hes speaking more towards the Credit Opportunities that exist, perhaps rather than the equity opportunities, because the equity guys that ive talked to this morning are certainly more caution than a headline like marks memo would suggest and i agree with that and if youre going to buy the bonds or the airline companies, you could see tehe equity be wiped out. But if you know what equities are pledged against that, you have to value the assets and it depends where you are in the caps structure equity is a muchmore complicated thing, because you really need faith. Let me tell you how im playing it i added exposure on friday, when the market was down. I thought it was a pure riskoff day. I added monday and added tuesday morning. I began to sell a little bit early afternoon and stopped selling because it traded down too much so i still believed that the markets giving you some trading opportunities. The biggest prize yesterday was the reversal i had not anticipated it, i thought the market would stay at those levels but you supersize some positions that you know very well. Such as what . What have you been adding to you say i added, i added, i added. Where . I added to microsoft, i added to akamai, and took some akamai off. I caught it up about 15, 16 so i sold it i went back into it. And im trading it so there are names that you can trade. Im keeping my core positions, because i cant i dont know if the market is going to completely look through this quarter, next quarter, as i believe it should, because i dont believe this is comparable to 2008, 2009, nor 2002, nor 98. This is very, very different and when i come out of this, im going to have just an incredible bull market, because i do believe well get a meaningful infrastructure plan. And unlike the infrastructure plan from the last administration, where they never spent it, this time, it will be spent. So ill have zero rates and major infrastructure and well get people back to work. And youre not suggesting, obviously so youre not suggesting that its going to be a v shape its simply, when we come out, whether its u shape, whatever shape that you want to pick, that its going to be that kind of bull market that you expect lets bring another voice into the conversation now the head of Global Quantitative research at jpmorgan joins us now on the phone we hope youre well. Thank you for coming back today. Thank you for having me what prevails for you optimism or pessimism . Brief answer, optimism. Situation clearly is very difficult and were dealing with an unprecedented situation i think its a situation thats very hard to compare to basically 2008 or 000, with as you guys were just mentioning. But i think sort of big picture, i think, you know, the fiscal and the monetary injections are massive, with probably more to come and i think ultimately, that will outlast the virus and the outbreak, which, by the way, is starting to show increasingly positive signs of apex or perhaps postapex already in europe so, yeah, optimism is my brief answer youve got us putting 700 points on to the s p by next year how in the world are we going to do that . So thats a good question and look, frankly, we get a lot of pushback on that. You know, so everybody is now clearly focused on the damage done to the economy, what will earnings look like and frankly, i think its a little bit of a pointless exercise to try to talk now whats going to be the epps for 2020 150 or maybe 130 we dont know. Companies are dropping guidance left and right so i think what we need to sort of focus on right now is basically, first of all, the path of the outbreak, because i think, ultimately, that will dictate how quickly the economy opens. Two, its not just about the hit to earnings, but we have to think about the hit to earnings relative to the change in the monetary base. Now, this is a big statement, because the fed what the fed is doing is unprecedented. And i think a lot of investors have still not fully comprehended that and sort of put their head around that that tells you unlimited qe, were basically buying highgrade, you know, Investment Grade corporate debt, that will have an implication for equity multiples. And so, i basically think that, yes, we will see a big impact to earnings, but the environment that were living in, most like that well continue to live in is one of evaluated multiples, and i think the u. S. , specifically the s p 500 is the home of many, many stocks and companies that are asset lite, that are beneficiaries of call it this unprecedented Monetary Policy and so i can totally envision a situation where earnings start to recover, theyre not perhaps where they should be, but multiple rerates on account of some of these nonfundamental forces and then add to all of that one more element positioning. Positioning as derated quite substantially, especially when you look at fast money, be it the systemic side or the hedge fund side. So there is upside there as well but what about you take earnings out of the equation, theres going to be a tremendous hit, we get it i totally i take your point for what its worth. What about the hit to the american psyche . I mean, thats unquantifiable, and its going to be large, isnt it we are a resilient population, but were also not stupid. And were not going to walk back into what may be a hornets nest if we think that there are still issues to be dealt with relative to the virus and maybe that supersedes everything all of the forecasts about earnings and whatever multiple you put on it. You cant put either of those on my psyche, or that of my fellow people, who are going to be apprehensive to go out and go into a restaurant or into a hotel or airplane or into a casino a or a Movie Theater or any other of these venues where the risks are going to be perceived to be high, right . No, i agree look, you mentioned something thats very fair, and thats a risk but the way that i would basically think about it is, first of all, the country cannot stay in a lock down for a long period people will need to basically go back to work and again, you know, you have to sort of separate between sort of the upper income, the middle, and the lower income the middle and lower income, people want to go back they need to make money. They need to pay their bills so i dont think that this lockdown situation can persist i think this is temporary. Second of all, you know, certain parts of the economy will not open up immediately, or if they open up, theyre going to open up in pa ratha rather slow fash. You mentioned a lot of these Industries Like entertainment, leisure, and so forth. Arent the most important parts of the economy we have a 70 consumptionbased economy. If the most important parts are going to have a lock on the door yes, but i say that if 75 or 80 of the economy is back up and running, the other 20 to 25 could get filled with gaps on the fiscal or monetary side. Thats why im saying, you have to look at the picture more holistically rather than just the impact to the economy, the exact to earnings. Theres a lot more happening hey, scott, dubravko puts it much more eloquently than i did. Im not going to argue with you on that, but please carry on nobody will, actually not even my wife or kids, but and they dont even know dubravko, but if i look out a year, whats going to survive . Is it going to be the virus still being around or is it going to be monetary and fiscal policy . Its going to be latter. Thats right. Number two, the reason why im carrying greater exposure than i did, i was on the cdc website yesterday, there are 300 ongoing registered trials for a therapeutic or a prevention for covid19 if one of those hits, thats the magic bullet you dont want to be sitting with any cash. Im sitting with a lot of cash, but im more exposed now than i have been over the last month. I hear you. Look, i truly believe this im betting on american ingenuity, i am. The whole of the Health Care Industry is focused on working on a therapeutic, a vaccine which is further down the road, things that i hope and i know all of us do, can come to fruition faster than some people expect and then it would be some level of a game changer if combined, something with the Antibody Test and things like that, where you can get a greater number of people back into some level of normalcy, that totally is a game changer and i agree with you you wouldnt want to be caught short and you wouldnt want to be caught with a lot of cash on the side, if that situation happens. Its just so unknown, meghan so how do you play it . Yeah, i think the reference to history is important. Were clearly in uncharted territory. This is an unprecedented recession. But when we think about a v or a u, its important to remember that historically, the average recession has been 12 to 18 months long thats the contraction we know were going to have a much deeper contraction this time around, but its probably going to be much shorter and while the fall looks and sounds at this point in time like its a long way out, that would make it a very short recession by historical standards. So how do you play that . You cant get too defensive. We are a little bit defensive. Were carrying a little bit extra overweight to municipal bonds. A litigant higher levels of cash, but were also finding opportunities to sort o