The final techs, and the Trump Administration places new sanctions on iran putting the middle east back in the headlines. Were down 90 appoints or so down about ten basis points. Joining us for the shore is dan nathan from risk reversal advisers wassail pullback warranted when you think about how we closed the year out, the fact that were kind of up a percent, the s p 500, a couple in the nasdaq more of the same, similar outperformance that we saw, tech stocks in particular the market is digesting a bit. A lot of news, volatility. 29,000, of course, where were below that level we did have three record closes, with the ten basis points of declines 58 1 2 minutes left. The dow hitting 29k earlier in the session. Were on watch to see if it makes it above that level. Bob pisani Steve Liesman is wrapping up the jobs report, and sean darby from jeffries is here with his outlook. Two strong updates. Valuations are very my s p 500, of course a new high. Earlier today, i just want to point out from 28 to 29,000, was only the beginning of middle of november at this point lets show you where weve gone. Apple, unitedhealth, Goldman Sachs, theyre two third of the gain since november 15th four other names, theyre the other 35 or so of the move there. So we have seven stocks. Thats what we talk about when we say the yearsall advance has narrowed significantly weve had new highs, though, most of the bigger sectors are new highs. Industrials, consumers discretionary, and communication services, all 52week highs, all of them off theory highs earlier in the day. Thank you lets turn to the jobs report. Steve liesman has the details. Good afternoon, roughly inline jobs report closing on 2019 shows a modest cooling here avrng hourly ranges disappointing, maybe because of the manufacturing job losses in there. Leisure, hospital almost the same maybe the result of trade problems, Transportation Warehousing also down some of the commentary that has come in, with an interesting note here, people not at work due to illness 1. 119 million, the highest for december in over a decade its been a particularly different flu season, but good advice to get your flu shot. The labor mark is not so tight the absence of wage pressure, enduring mystery, just maybe the labor market isnt as tight as the headline numbers make them seem steve, the ties to the week, i wonder how closely tied softening in terms of wage growth is, given the fact that those tend to be higherpaying jobs so theres two forces at work, morgan, you lice manufacturing, which are higher paying jobs. Those are lower paying jobs, that would also depress the wage those two factors could be playing a role the more enduring, since the beginning of the year, wage pressure has come down amid a very tight labor market. 3 1 2 steve, thanks for that mike well, if were going to start out with what im calling a semisweet memory, that memory of about two years ago, the market rally is recement belichick sort of a twoyear plus threemonth chart we get you this leadup up into jag wear were right here, about january 10th, here we go, going up to that point, its a roughly similar advance. This was, i think 13 , thats 15 . That was a market that legitimately merited the label every meltdown we had a much more high momentum move. Wasnt quite as much it is the lowest investment agreed level of corporate here were, on a 3. 9 , so obviously with the same equity valuation, it seems as if right now, obviously lower treasury yields, it seems as if thats your explanation for why especially the large Growth Stocks are working right now. It seems like its a very familiar setup, but im not suggesting were heading up like we did pretty similar. Most of the difference is in the treasury yield, so it is about the same. Mike san tolli, thank you does it feel like jack 28th to you . If you think about it now, year over year, its being cut in half from the highs or where people were expecting it to be tess end of 2018 what we didnt know, we couldnt quantify, the similarity is we could quantify this trade war i thought the commentary was about as clear as mud, the president is already walking about one of face two, if youre telling me it means 10, 20 billion more in ag purchases, that doesnt do it when you think about the manufacturing number, thats the thing i would focus on for 2020. That plays into what youre talking about. The boeing situation continues to get worse so theres a lot of knockon effect i would argue that we dont have the clarity, you know, half a percent from an alltime high is suggesting that we have. Also cant help but think the contraction were starting to see, all red counts coming down we have seen a correlation between mining and manufacturing as well. Listen, lets put it all together what also is really different is that the fed cud Interest Rates last year, three times for the first time in ten years. It will be about half a trillion, so at this pace well be back at alltime highs. All right. A bit more on lets bring in sean darby welcomes what are your thoughts . I think the big difference is the fed has locked down the short end of the yield curve, and sort of all about the yield curve shifting up in one go, and taking a very big hit on the cost of capital. So in many ways up until q2, the fed has your back. Its the long end of the curve we have to think about and you will compares to where we are 12, 18 months ago, the dollar has weakening youve almost had a double, triple easing compared to 12, 18 months ago essentially were unwinding in terms of whether or not youre constructive or not, what is your view of Earnings Growth the sense, where we are around its going to be something between 8 to 10 Earnings Growth. The thing for me is this judgment about the trade dispute can all be reflected in infantries we saw the day to day, wholesale infantries that should mean sometimes from q2, it does tart to kick in and start to rebilled inventory. I look at the crb, rind index, and theyve just been starting to pick up and break through some of the longterm moves averaging. How much hinges on the dollar and the next move there . A lot i think even today, still money is going into money market funds. It was a record year to government bonds, fixed income in 2019. Dan, do you careful about the dollar i do, and this 96 to 100 range is kind of where its been for the last 18 months, it hasnt had much of an effect quarter to quarter, but i will say that thats what happens when we entered q. E. , thats what they did again, right so i guess i worry about everything that sean just said in the context of this is a midcycle adjustment, right . But where is the cap ex . The inventories might have been building because of double ordering because of the trade war. I take your point coming into an election year, a lot of uncertainty going out and building Huge Investment projects i think the one thing, again, just about the dollar is anytime the u. S. Federal reserve has done q. E. , the dollar has always weak end sean, in terms of where you perhaps could be wrong, im looking through your notes, your 2020 outlook, you are modestly bullish on every single country. We try to keep things reasonably equal. Youre not bearish on any country . Not we think every equity market the irony is a weaker is incredibly reflationary for emerging markets and europe. As i said, most of the Central Banks in the g7 have real Interest Rates negative, generally a great backdrop for equity markets whether they wentz positive it was a disaster i think we may be in a regime shift where Interest Rates remain negative for a lot longer now. Do emerging markets look more atrachive than, say the u. S. They do i think you could a big kick especially on the signing of the trade dispute so, yes, you could get some really very big moves in the end markets. Sean, thanks for joining us sean darby. Still to come here on the closing bell, boeing involved in another messaging mess after new documents show that the 737 max was, quote, designed by clowns, who are in turn supervised by monkey the potentially fall joy, straight ahead. Has l brands been so bad that now its good well get the details on closing bell. Keeping me from the things i love to do. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442142424. Because its tailored to you . Take the personal assessment and get matched with a proven weight loss plan. Find out which customized plan can make losing weight easier for you myww join today with the ww triple play and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. Thats why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk, talk we have just under 45 minute to say go. Shares of kb falling, the company said orders came in above estimates but that the average sales price was lower. That stock is down about 3. 5 . Shares of Urban Outfitters falling as well. Companies said sales at the Flagship Store declined due to increased promotions that stock is also down about 5 . Boeing releasing internal messages today, that had harsh phil lebeau has the story for you. Hey, wilf, this is an embarrassing set of emails and memos from 2013 all the way up to 2018 revolving around the 737mablgs development we wont go through all of these. One of them is i still havent been forgiven by god are regarding the covering up, then theres this one this airplane is designed by clowns who, in turn, are supervised by monkeys. Whats been the reaction of this first of all, the faa says no smoking gun near Spirit Alliance announcing it would lay oaf 2800 workers starting on january 22nd spirit builds the fuselages for the 737 maxes, they have not done production since the beginning of this year they have a big backlog, and its unclear what would be the repurr kiss for that . Criminal charges, another could be visit criminal charges, deposition on what the doj investigation comes up with, or clearly charges against boeing you could see boeing when this doj investigation is over, reached some kind of deferred settlement, where they say, okay, were going to agree to x amount of fine then were going to maybe have some oversight you know, whatever the doj believes is appropriate there. Thats assuming the doj ultimately says, look, theres enough for us to bring some charg charges. You mentioned spirit air systems, that stock is down 3 , but quite a number of the major 737max suppliers are trading lower today as well. Allegheny, ge, triumph for name a few. Is there an expectation to see more of these layoffs as we get into earnings division. Im not sure well see layoffs at the size of spirit. They get half the revenue from the max program. It has a much bigger connection that other Aerospace Suppliers it will hurt all of them to some degree, the First Quarter maybe into the Second Quarter as well, but spirit is the moexposed to e max. We have 40 minutes about the bell right now the dow is during this timing lower towards lows of the session earlier today, down about 117 points s p 500 down about a quarter of a percent as is the nasdaq up next, word on the street, find out which stock was downgraded not once, but twice by the same analyst in less than 12 hours find out what to expect and what the results will signal about corporate profits later, here on closing bell. What a time to be alive. The world is customized to you. Built for you. So why isnt it all about you, when it comes to your money . So. Whats on your mind . We are edward jones, a 97yearold firm built for right now. With one Financial Advisor per office, were all about knowing whats important to you the one who matters. Edward jones. Its time for investing to feel individual. Welcome back to closing bell. It is time now to get to the word on the street Deutsche Bank upgrading the l brands, says the holidays sales of victorias secret tips the scales more toward a split also noting that the opportunity for action is fairly limited. Wells fargo down grading six flags not one, but twice yesterday equal weight rate, and down today to underweight. Bullish, saying while weak necessary is record discounts, this decline wont last softbank continues to lead i think this is an interested note from Public Market sales and research analysts, china enticed people into what is sort of a private market investment vehicle. I think thats why i still have the biggest disconnect with what theyre trying to argue, it may by the discounts are there as part of the valuation, but its pretty debatable you can get some for companies, so i still think theres a massive gap in any numbers thats undefinable at this stage. I dont now how it benefits a investor here. Then we work, and theres been no shortage of large investments that they have made where you see that theyre suretying businesses or employees. I just dont know how you express those views. I think just in the last two days alone and or pursuing layoffs. Anything that really got my attention is Berkshire Hathaway, given the fact that Berkshire Hathaway does have a massive insurance float, with a big focus on cash flow, when it comes to investing in the companies that are not insurance related. So interesting. Interesting its unique in terms of the assessments, but one of the arguments they make is its like the s p 500, if you want exposure, this is one of the only ways you can do it. But it might well be those types to the next decade. I dont think it all adds up for that. One other point, public investors at least here in the u. S. So im not sure, to get some fairly pickedover private investments makes sense. Up next the result of a new poll by Goldman Sachs. Plus weve got your lastchance play and as he we had to break, heres a check on bonds, where yields are lower across the board. At fidelity, online u. S. Stocks and etfs are commissionfree. And when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. Thats why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk, talk welcome back to closing bell. We have 30 minutes left to go. The major averages are lower here are the three things driving action the overall market remains solid. The signing of the china deal appears to be on track for next week and the Trump Administration places new sanctions on iran, putting the middle east back in the headlines. It is time now, though for the cn. News update. Heres whats happening at this hour, everyone. As the Senate Impeachment trial draws near, amy klobuchar, campaigning in iowa, said it would be a sham if witnesses were not called. I think we should and must have more witnesses. It would make no sense to me and onwe would get any airing that the American People expect. Dozens of protesters gathering outside the new york courthouse where jury selection in the Harvey WeinsteinSexual Assault trial is taking place. They say they said to raise awaysness for Legal Systems that do not work for rape victims the flu is widespread in 46 states, from the cdc, 87,000 people have been hospitalized. You are up to date thats the new update this hour. Wilf, back down to you. See you again next how mike wilf, this is about candied fruit. You can imagine which stock this will address apple has been the story, this is the setup for analyst sentiment. You can see the number of buys has just inched up, the stock has forced the street to become incrementally more optimistic as its blown through the valuation range. So you see here, the symptom price still is kind of going very steeply upward. The price target is creeping higher, but really youre not having that kind of capitulation that you might otherwise expect. Now, another look at the valuation, not just about pricetoearnings ratio, this is the free cash flowed yield apple is on track, according to analysts this fiscal year to have about 60, 65 billion of free cash floup. Thats roughly what it had in fiscal to 18 the market is incredibly willing to seize on steady cash flow streams. So the cash flow is just the inversion. Look how cheap this looked up here with roughly a 10 free cash flow. Now its bled to down to about 4 1 2 its basically just gotten to the same level as the broad s p 500. This is the cash flow yield versus of market so essentially theyre saying its worth as the broad s p 500. Can it last, is the market right . We dont know, but that really is whats been happening its more confidence that you can rely on this, not as much about people saying, hey, were going to see a huge growth spurt necessarily in sales or in the top line for apple. Plenty of cash on hand, and either way they do, wilf, but the market cap has gone up so much, the net cash that apple has really is not as material as it used to be, like 20 or 25 per share in net cash right now it used to be, thats a much bigger percentage. But still quite a lot of scope with the cash flow for buybacks. Without a doubt despite the massive runup. Well, thats whats interesting. Well see what they say about their appetite with they valuation levels. Mike, as always, thank you. The dow hitting session lows moments ago off hitting record highs earlier in the session, which also took it above 29k were just under half an hour left in the session, down about half a percent. Institutional investors are split, according to the latest results of the Goldman Sachs marquee poll joins is Tony Pascarella thank you for joining us great to be back the broad one in terms of outlook on the s p 500 was still more bearish than bullish, but less pronounced than last month. Thats exactly correct. I think what we find is that couple times in the context of remarkably good returns. A 31 total return s p, and yet on net a very balanced bull versus bear skew so when we look for signs of excessive risk taking or irrational exuberance, to coin an old phrase, we just dont see it you also asked the question about which major equity market do you expect to form the best it still continues to be the s p. Exactly correct in the postcrisis per its n