Check out your 401 k s because the rally is back on dow up nearly 200 points and were closing in on 29,000 lets check out boeing heres a stock up as much as 3 on reports that iran may have been responsible for the downed plane this week. Initially, the reports were that it was a Technical Glitch or engine failure those reports have been a bonus to boeing. Well have more on that in a minute contessa, thank you very much earnings season is the next hurdle this market has jump and it starts soon lots of hopes being rested on the you are quarterly reports. It starts flooding in next week led by jpmorgan, wells fargo, citigroup, obviously the big banks leading the way. Bob pisani joins us with more. The good news is that we are continuing to rally even today because the markets are starting to believe this magical combination of a strong u. S. Consumer, a trade truce, a friendly fed and bottom line Global Growth will produce an expansion of earnings in 2020 after a flat 2019. The bad news is stock prices are going up, but earnings estimates arent q4 estimates are now slight ly negative essentially and thats a bad sign here they have been coming down fast even as the s p 500 stays a 12 rally in the Fourth Quarter u. Prices up, earnings down, that means the multiple is climbing fast and thats whats got me worried. On january 1st year, stocks were cheap. Well below the norm. Roughly 16 is the norm today, its 18. 4 this is the higher end of its range in the last 20 years the implication here is that any negative factor that ree emerges is going to crop drop the markets fast and it could be anything the fed, it could be trade or it could be some downturn in china, Europe Markets very vulnerable right now. Guys, back to you. In a recent survey, they say this market is overvalued. 82 anticipate taking more defensive actions so should you be getting more defensive . Chief Market StrategistEric Friedman is chief Investment Officer with u. S. Bank Wealth Management gentlemen, good to see you today. Oliver, let me begin with you. Its not just the cnbcs cfo survey showing this as well. Youve got world bank downgrading the Global Growth by. 2 where do you think were heading for 2020 when theres so much. Peter pessimism . I would discount that a little bit also its a question of when you ask the question because over the last 45 day, weve seen a lot of positive developments our best Case Scenario is that trade turns out, Global Growth picks up slightly compared to previous estimates and earnings come in fairly strong for 2020 because comparisons to 2019 are relatively easy. So we see high single digit returnsfor the year in equities but we favor staying relatively defensive or at least sticking with Higher Quality names where youve got strong earnings visibility, Margin Expansion and yld ideally taking market away from competitors eric, what do you think b about not just the economy slowing, but the stocks are overvalued you heard bob talking about how dramatically weve seen this multiple expansion over the last year or so where are you seeing 2020 in the portfolios we have some optimism b about earnings for 2020. Agree d that last year was more of a flat earnings environment but multiples expanded we think were going to see Revenue Growth the biggest enl we have is looking at data across the glob and one thing we see is an improvement in parts of europe u and most pronounced in emerging markets. Thats different from this time last year, so we think this is likely to be still a single digit type of growth environment but still a healthier one than last year, so were more optimistic i would like to say in terms of the survey, if you look at Duke Universitys survey, the national fed documentation of independent business, sh both are more constructive especially in the last 45 days so theres reason for some optimism on the krrk fo front. Given your view of the market for 20, where would you put money . What kinds of stocks, what names . Bristol miyers squibb. We think thats a good place Companies LikeIntuitive Surgical a decade ahead of their competitors. We think robotic assisttive surgeries are going to continue to grow. And adobe. Its moved to a subscription model. Companies that again have strong balance sheets, strong visible Earnings Growth and when ever possible, fall to the category of what we call compounders where theres a Dividend Growth component, share buybacks, things that allow investors to compound on the growth beyond just Earnings Growth eric, what about you . Are there particular sectors you like and how do you see the domestic opportunities versus say emerging markets we think Technology Remains the place to be. Were really warming up to emerging markets a space that didnt hit highs and hasnt made new highs since january of 18 we think the Mortgage Rates are also interesting thank you so much shares of boeing. Thank you, guys. Boeing moving higher, helping to send the dow to new records. We have been talking about all day. Reports now suggest that the ukrainian jet that crashed in iran earlier this week may have been shot down phil lebeau has more thats the conclusion of the pentagon sources within the pentagon have told nbc news that satellite evidence leads them to conclude that Iranian Missiles did take down the Ukrainian Airlines plane. This happened Early Morning tuesday. Right after the u. S. Had experienced the rockets that had been coming into iraq. There was some sense that there might be a retaliation so the belief is that this was a mistake. There may have been somebody who decided this might be a u. S. Missile or some type of attack and accidentally shot it down. By the way, iran dismisses this. Heres the president today talk ing about this incident. I have my suspicions. I dont want to say that because o others have that also. A tranlic thing. Flying in a frit rough neighborhood and somebody could have made a mistake. Some people say it was mechanical i penlly dont think thats even a question this is the conclusion that a number of aviation crash investigators have reached on their own for a number of reason, tyler. When you lock at the debris field, which was scattered, telemetry data went away immediately. It is not a case where the pilot is trying to communicate with people and it crashed less than two minutes after takeoff so again, nbc is saying sources within the pentagon tells them satellite data leads them to believe this was an Iranian Missile that took down this plane. As you take a look at shares of boeing, the stock has moved back on this today, but also remember, theres other news regarding boeing that the investors are trying to digest and that includes the fact theres a downgrade of the stock largely because of the 737 max and that, the max story, continues to be what is driving shares of boeing you remarked on the debris field. Is there any evidence within that debris field or any physical sign that rockets were fire d at this aircraft social media, there has been a photograph floating around on social media saying theres a rocket warhead here that has been found in the debris field that has not been confirmed by any rep tabl sources out there so whether or not theres true evidence its hard to say, i should point this out that when you talk with the crash investigation experts who have done a number of commercial accident, they point to the fact the way this plane broke apart is consistent with what you might see with with a missile attack you have quite a new canadians aboard this jet, as well as europeans and other foreigners we heard the canadian Prime Minister speak out about this. Is there any indication that if iranian investigators are unable pau to work with others that they would work with another International Team they are supposed to. They are supposed to work to look at the black box, analyze the data, et cetera. Whether or not its through sending it to france or somewhere else nobody knows for sure whats going to happen for here remember, iran, they control the black box so its up to them theyve said yeah, were going to work o with the canadians and ukrainians and other, whether r r not they let them in remains to be scene. Thank you, phil coming up, Holiday Season numbers are out. A few retailers taking it on the chin today were going to take a look at the losers and winners coming up starbucks getting an upgrade in part thanks to growth in china. Well talk to the analysts who made that call after a short break on power lunch. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From finding out whats selling best. To managing your fleet. To collaborating remotely with your teams. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. The unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, youve faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. With ship skis, youre just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. With unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. Ship ahead and go catch those first tracks on fresh snow. Ship skis. Your skis. Delivered. Welcome back oppenheimer calling starbucks its top pick growing sales thanks the to mobile orders plus a boost in international sale, particularly in china the stock is up more than 2 today and more than 40 ina year here now is the analyst behind the call Jeffrey Bernstein of barclays. Good to have you u with us thank you lets talk about china because i thought for a while that china had softened for starbucks. Has it rebounded or was i erroneous in thinking it had grown soft it had softened a year or so ago and there was concern b about ramped up corp. Tigs from local players, but theyve responded in kind and continues to pursue more of the premium consumer in the past quarters, trends have improved and seems like they hit an Inflection Point this quarter comps seem to be holding in nicely positive. Otherwi otherwise, its about new growth how important is china to the overall picture . China is a meaningful component to that story. There are really two regions we focus on the u. S. And china and china is their only market where they own and operate 100 of their stores so the it has an outsized impact on their profitability so very important market for them its all o and o as opposed in the United States, where there are some kiosked that are licensed in the u. S. , 44 of their stores are licensed to somebody else so it takes away some of their vulnerability, but in china, the 4,000 stores they have, they own every one of them where are thclicking in the u. S. I know about the mobile story. I use it i think its a big growth driver not just for starbucks, but for a host of fast food or beverage companies. Yeah, no, mobile ordering is is key, especially when theyre really busy, 7 00 to 9 00 or 10 00 in the morning the Loyalty Program has 17 million members. Thats still a small fraction of the number of customers they have new beverage innovation is the primary driver of cost for them. Food continues to be a modest contributorer. So vert variety at their disposal i was really surprised to see that the starbucks card is so important. That the usage now represents 46 of all transactions. How important is that to increasing this digital momentum its critical as consumers see that others are walking into the store and pick ing up their beverage right away and theyre waiting in line of five or more people, you can see how quickly theyre incentivized to join the program and pay with the card you get a faster transaction easier, you can get rewards off of it. T only natural see, especially in the morning, youll see a will the of our breakfast and beverage players pushing loyalty like that. You cover a lot of restaur T Restaurants in this space, but im interested in Dunkin Donuts and whether theyre doing things to give starbucks a run for its money on this reward thing or are these just two totally different lanes . I think its a bit of both. Theyve taken notice of th success starbucks has had and they are similarly pursuing dinl tall and loyalty and having success with it as well. You know theyre still a much smaller brand in the u. S. And tend to target a slightly lowerr income consumer than a starbucks. Dunkin is mostly franchised . Good point. Its 100 franchised, so every one you walk into is run by a local operator so theyre less vulnerable thank you very much we appreciate it come up, our traders talk on tesla. The stock everybody is talking about. Its nearly doubled in three months can elon musk keep working his magic . And the huge move has pushed noah cindsyndergaard. Things arent going so well for e odenny frankels team and also thgo work shes doing to help fire victims in australia dont go anywhere. Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. [spokesman] if youve tried colleg group cheering shed, snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu. Edu apps except work. Rywhere. Why is that . Is it because people love filling out forms . Maybe they like checking with their supervisor to see how much Vacation Time they have. Or sending corporate their expense reports. Ill let you in on a little secret. They dont. By empowering employees to manage their own tasks, paycom frees you to focus on the business of business. To learn more, visit paycom. Com woi felt completely helpless. Hed online. My entire career and business were in jeopardy. I called reputation defender. Vo take control of your online reputation. Get your free reputation report card at reputationdefender. Com. Find out your online reputation today and let the experts help you repair it. Woman they were able to restore my good name. Vo visit reputationdefender. Com or call 18778668555. Welcome back to power lunch. Tesla losing some speed today after long time bo talk a backseat analysts there downgrading the stock to neutral but raising the price target to 525 that implies another 9 rally. Lets bring in hike and tina so, matt, looking at this chart, its almost vertical in the last little while ere how would you play this . Either stay out of the way or decide to pull back or keep going . You know, obviously this stock is a very volatile one last year, we had a couple of good calls where we said sell the stock when it was going down thats where it went when it got below 190. That worked out well the last six or seven times got to that level, the stock has seen a meaningful pullback but also its weekly chart, in the last three years, it only got above 80 one other time. That was followed by doubling the stock in just six months and the stock rolled over and fell 20 so were kind of in that same category again this time. Back in 2013 seven years aerks it got this overbought and kept rallying i think you should take some chap chips off the b table with some profits you can go to more extreme extremes the only thing has been how fast can they seize globally for electric vehicles. How would you evaluate relative to where we are . Tesla investors are experts at extrapolation and i think thats what happens. Musk met his guidance i think taking a step back makes a lot of sense because this stock has ary of running ahead of itself and diving into deep pessimism. So id say were in the former heading toward the latter because it always seems to happen i think the longterm for this, i am a believer that this is an interesting stock, but it is still really having to suffer the ebb and flow of building itself up as a company well see you it goes when they report earnings within several weeks. Thank you very much. For more trading nation, head to our website or follow us on twitter. Tyler. Ahead on power lunch, a royal rumble prince harry and meghan want to make a brexit from the royal family, but the queen says not so fast, my young ones plus sh, retailers having holiday blues. Numbers weak er than expected, but not all bad news for retail and with just a few weeks in the stock draft, the competition getting fierce the team yes is dead last. Bethenny frankel will join us to defend her strategy. Just had some bad luck all this when power lunch returns. This is apple card. A new kind of credit card. Created by apple, not a bank. With a better way to track where you spend. A new level of privacy and security. Daily cash you get back every day. And no fees. Not even hidden ones. Oh, and if you happen to be somewhere that doesnt accept apple pay yet, theres this. Nice. President trump calling for chaining that could allow projects raining from oil pipeline to mines to move forward with far less review of impact on the environment. This with the environmental policy act bill cosby asking the Pennsylvania Supreme Court for another review of his Sexual Assault case his legal team submit iting a petition claiming me too hysteria impacted the ruling no word on when the court might rule on that petition. Zblncht and members of a new York Jewish Community targeted in a hanukkah attack turned out for tactical training. A former member of the Israeli Defense forces displaying weapons last night in someones coming over your shoulder with a machete intending to do harm hes not the gardener. Hes someone intending to kill and maim you intend to neut