Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240713

Swift revenge. Rattling markets and bringing the record rally to a halt a pause, maybe the s p, dow, and nasdaq all finishing the day in the red meantime, oil prices spiking to their highest level since april in fears of major disruptions to the Global Energy spry and President Trump took the stage at a rally in miami. If he makes comments on iran or others that seem jermaiger manel breng them to you. Last weeks market slide bringing jitters is it time to rethink your strategy guy, i think yes, tyler. Like you, i was surprised the market didnt react more negatively than it did should we rethink our tie combo first . The adami collection. Its great to have christina here were all been fans of her work. I wanted to match. Blue to blue. The blues me being different. I think it works. The yellow and blue is a strong thing, tyler i didnt get the memo what was the question i thought that for a while, and correctly. If you told me last night at the end of the show what was going to take place, you said where is the market going to be tomorrow, based on the fact the dow is up 300 points, i said well, we easily have to be down 2 , if not more the vix should be north of 17. The nasdaq should be down 120 or so tlt should have rallied and it did. Gold should be higher. The fact the market is down not even a percent today is remarkable given the backdrop of what happened. Forget about just what happened in terms of iran that ism number is a disaster, the worst number inten years global economies, in my opinion, are slowing. You have this now geopolitical risk market at alltime highs and the fact we cant even budge effectively is remarkable to me. Steve, were going to talk more about oil in just a minute, but i look at some of the oil stocks, and i was surprised that some of them were actually down today. Some of the big ones oversupplied. We outproduce, the u. S. Outproduces russia and saudi arabia and when you look at all those Economic Data points, those are allbackward looking. They would have been impacted by trade. You would expect them to be impacted by trade. Going forward, lets see what monday looks like. Youll have every talk show talking about it this weekend. Yeah. So everyone is going to put their spin on it are investors going to feel weaker or stronger about it come monday morning, and a lot of people are still out on vacation this week. The key is that the refiners were hit so hard, which you would expect with a bump, but the refiners have been struggling for a while, as crude, and this spike is quite different than the sort of drone attack spike, which was a flareup and a giveback. This has been more enduring. I think it implies energy at least for now will be an outperformer relative to the overall market the simple question for me is how much riskier did the market get today than it was 24 hours ago . How much more volatility should we be prepared for in 2020 than we had in 2019 well, i think we should have gone into 2020 regardless of this, expecting more volatility. Geopolitical risks have increased around the world and this is just one of those incidents. I dont think were going to see any kind of immediate backlash but it will hang over markets as do other geopolitical risks. I guess it depends on what the retaliation is, right . Tyler, hasnt the world been pretty risky, when you said how much more risky, hasnt it been onesided, a bunch of rhetoric, hasnt it been iran kind of flaring and thumbing their nose at the u. S. For quite some time now . This, to me, says to them put up or shut up is it going to escalate quickly . I dont think so the Million Dollar question is where do china and russia line up on this and do they force the u. S. To the table . Also, at what point does it move higher and crude start to impact the consumer. Were not at that point yet, but there are a lot of studies that suggest you get a year over increase of 50 , 70 , it starts to become a problem. Were not there yet, but the further you go, its going to start. Steve, last night, i sat around this table, and i sat around the table on power lunch earlier on the day and listened to a lot of what was going on, and didnt hear the word iran come up once not one of the risk elements that was out there and now it is. In a big way but we cant ignore some of the other risks. We have north korea. Were still waiting for them to test some kind of big missile. Right . Thats one of the risks. We also have the risk that once the u. S. Signs a deal with china, if it does sign that phaseone deal on january 15th, then we could potentially have the u. S. Turn its sights on europe and begin a trade war with the european union. There are lot of risks guy, lets talk about some of the groups today and how they performed. Airlines down, as you might expect, as oil prices go up, but not down all that much defense stocks, by and large, higher makes sense to me, the airlines, its not necessarily just on the back of oil, its on the fact that maybe people are now potentially not willing to travel as much as they had been over the last couple months. I think theres an aspect of that defense stocks we have been talking about forever. This is just one more sort of tailwind for that group. Quickly to answer your question about volatility in a different way, does it surprise me 100 , but it makes sense if you think about it the advent of passive investing over the past couple years absolutely has dampened volatility, whether intentional or not, and i think the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks globally have taken volatility out of the equation. The market incorrectly in my opinion has theres a bull market, a bubble in complacency, and when passive stops becoming passive, and i dont know when that happens, its not going to be ill tell you, it wont be active on the upside the advent of passive investing coupled with Central Banks is why volatility has a 15 handle instead of in this environment a 22 handle. We began by asking, is this a moment where you rethink your strategy heading into 2020 yes or no . Its impossible to rethink it based on today on one days events because were so close to alltime highs the odds are we go higher. Still the day of reckoning is where earnings come out, q1, where estimates are, and does the market, the Corporation Step over those estimates or do they hit a wall thats going to be the true reckoning, and thats going to be a longer term event versus a one off iranian event. Final question before we move on here. Guy said there is a bubble in complacen complacency. Has the market failed to discount not just the geopolitical risks that manifest itself last night, but all of the other risks you referred to . Is there a bubble in complacency. I think the answer is actually the market has priced in central bank support. And so even if you do have those geopolitical risks, which are somewhat priced in, you also know that there are Central Banks like the fed standing ready to support markets that has changed the equation. Not just by cutting Interest Rates but by the operations on the Balance Sheet side as well absolutely. Bl were going to leave it there, but well keep talking about this all half hour im sure but were going to dive deeper into the Energy Market right now on a day that saw Oil Prices Jump more than 3 after last nights air strike crude trading at its highest level since april. Joining us is huh lima croft and a cnbc contributor what are your thoughts today as you watched the markets unfold after last nights events . I think its hard to overstate how momentous the killing of soleimani was he was the most powerful operative in the middle east, you could argue the most powerful figure in iran. What were looking at is the prospect of significant iranian retaliation. Some people have said, they have to put up or shut up, but frankly, since may, we have seen almost unprecedented attacks on Energy Infrastructure in the middle east. Tankers being struck off uaes territorial waters in may. Tankers seized over the summer, and on september 14th, iranians were basically sent cruise missiles and drones and took out half of saudis Oil Production temporarily. So i dont think we should be complacent about irans ability to respond and be chaotic in the region i think what the market is doing now is waiting to see, you know, what they bring forward in terms of additional attacks, and whether we can sort of weather a disruption storm but the u. S. Administration has moved as well from im complacency is not the right word for it, but the u. S. Was pretty patient in the face of all of those provocations. Absolutely. And now, maybe there is a new phase and a Seismic Shift where the president and the administration is saying enough already. Were not going to take this anymore. And so if iran comes back with some further provocation, we may punch back twice as hard and i think that is the issue about a retaliatory spiral President Trump has drawn a red line hes drawn this red line over the summer hes not going to use u. S. Military assets to protect persian gulf Energy Infrastructure he says that is crude going to asia we have supply in the u. S. But his red line is, no americans can be killed by iran or iranian backed groups he enforced that red line. You had a u. S. Civilian contractor killed on a base in iraq on friday and he has responded with force to that. So if the iranians retaliate in a way that targets more americans, you can expect the u. S. Military to respond potentially on targets inside iran so again, i dont think we are done with this i dont think this is a blip or a momentary issue. I think were looking at the prospect of further back and forth between the u. S. And iran over coming months whos got a question for helima when you talk about how momentous of a killing this was for the United States or what a loss it was for iran, does it make them change their strategy . Is it that type of a Tipping Point . Or is it more or less it just ratchets up all the leverage that they have on us or we have on them . I mean, i dont believe a Supreme Leader of iran is going to back down in the face of this hes vowing revenge. And i do think that, you know, again, it may not be tomorrow. It may not be the next day, but over the coming weeks, we will see some type of significant iranian response and so the question is, does this lead us back to the bargaining table i dont think were anywhere near getting back to the bargaining table someone on the panel talked about north korea, and an issue no one is really talking about is what does iran do with the Nuclear Program . They have been restarted enrichment of uranium in facilities that are heavily fortified over the summer. The question is do they potentially withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty and make a quick dash to having Nuclear Weapons capability do they go the north korea route . I think that the risk is really high that were going to see further escalation in this standoff between the u. S. And iran i do not think the iranians are going to back down after what happened yesterday kristina or guy bottom line, where do oil prices go . Well, again, i think what has been interesting is, again, we have had unprecedented attacks on middle east Energy Infrastructure but because of concerns about the trade war, because of concerns about Global Demand that did not really move the needle in terms of the market. Now, with trade war fears receding, i do think geopolitics can exert much more of an impact on the market. Yes, there is a u. S. Supply story. So perhaps 80 is a new 100, but that does not mean that we cannot go higher on the back of what i think is going to be further escalation in the coming weeks and months all right, thanks very much for your insights. We appreciate your time. Thank you lets trade what helima just said and our thoughts about oil. Carter, is there a trade here for you . Sure, there key is what oil did in relation to what it did after the missile strike on that day, it was monday, september 16th, it spiked as high as 63. 38 and then it went almost back to 50. Gave the whole thing back. Now we have been deliberately and very measuredly moving higher, and today, we spiked to that high of september 16th, and actually made a slight new high at 64 and change. This in principle is a move to a prior high what do you think for me, there was a couple of names, a few names i had mentioned. Xec is one of the names, wpx energy, and rig. These are all names that have been up recently pretty big, and it could be m a, it could be energy just laggard trying to become a leader, but i think thats the beta in the name. In the names in energy space if this progresses any further. We talked about schlumberger for a while, since october when it made a bottom around 30. The stock is up about 33 in the last four months i think higher from here a lot of analysts will Start Playing catchup. I think this is a stock you can continue to own into earnings. Look for the april high, which i think was around 47 i think thats where its headed who was it last night we did that contrarian segment last night you werent here, but you were, who said the idea that energy going from laggard to leader was i said short term, you can have a trade, but its not going to last. I think the most important thing for me is going to see, we already heard from china today that theyre looking at whats going on with the real specific eye on it regarding trade. I want to hear from russia because weve seen in the last couple weeks, we have seen those joint military operations between china, iran, and russia. I think theyre having another one tonight or tomorrow night. So thats going to be really interesting to me to see how much bigger this is allowed to get. Were going to take a quick break. Coming up, we found some green arrows in todays red sea, so to speak. Well tell you what sent tesla shares into overdrive, and well reveal todays mystery chart this retail showing surprising strength in todays down market. All tell you which company it isnd why much more fast right after this ense. But now quickbooks helps me get paid, manage cash flow, and run payroll. And now im back on top. With koala kai. vo save over 40 hours a month with intuit quickbooks. Dont get mad. Get e trade, dawg. Some things are too important to do yourself. Get customized security with 24 7 monitoring from xfinity home. Awarded the best professionally installed system by cnet. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Call, click or visit a store today. Familiar with this song . Cars. By one gary newman only a half hour show. Come on, tyler pick it up, man. All right welcome back to fast money. It would not be a day, would it, without a discussion about tesla. We talked about it last night. Were going to talk about it again. Shares of the company topping the tape in todays session. It passed a major milestone after it delivered more than 100,000 cars in a quarter for the first time ever. And tesla says it delivered 112,000 in the fourth quarter. Far above wall streets estimates. The stock touching new alltime highs on the news. Will teslas record rally hold strong what do you think . So, you never know what to look at this as. Is it a battery company, is it a car company . Was it a going out of Business Company . Is it the sec company . Thats what were worried about slaps on it. And all that stuff seems to be sort of analogous to the overall market it shook off a lot of different headwinds, and right now, technically, the stock is just helium and i see overshoot levels of around 500 to 520. Every day we come in with another tailwind, makes me more confident well get there. And when you look at the relative strength index, the way when its overbought, it works it off, really, really quickly and just ratchets right back higher again i mean, listen, i have said it countless times i thought this would stall in the 320s or so, and here we are pushing to the levels steve just talked about on seemingly nothing except a lot of hope now. I think the headlines from china, a lot of the china headlines regarding tesla, i think thats a lot of this people are getting jazzed up maybe rightly so, i dont know i heard maybe incorrectly that gene munster made some positive comments, maybe changed his price target to the upside all the news has been wind at their sails, one tweet, one bad delivery, one whatever away. Again, i thought this would stop 150 or so dollars ago how much is priced in its always that at what point are you paying the right price or too much or not enough for whats coming in the next six to 12 months . My hunch is its, as you referred to, overbought, obviously. The question is how much time is there to work it off i would sell my tesla longs here move on, for more on teslas record quarter, you can head to our website. Heres what else is coming up on fast. Shares of l brands bucking the market selloff. What has one analyst so positive on the stock and later on options action, apple getting another vote of confidence from not one but two brokerage houses today but how should you play the stock as it soars from one record after another we have all that and more after thbrk. E ea terrain in telluride, the unparalleled landscape of park city, or the famed peaks of whistler, youve faced the hassle of lugging your gear through the airport. With ship skis, youre just a few clicks away from having your skis, snowboard and luggage shipped from your doorstep to your destination. With unrivaled pricing, real time tracking ship skis delivers, hassle free. 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