Brent at a threemonth high, gold at 15. 12. The year end rally, the s p biggest yearly return in seven and nearing its best gains in more than 20 years. Plus ecommerce sales hitting a record, amazon saying billions of items ordered world wide. Boeing still on watch, new documents revealing whats being called quote very disturbing revelations. As 2019 heads into the home stretch, all three major indies says are on track for a fourth straight month of gains. They have surged as last months selloff we remember december 26 when everything rallied 5 . We were bottoming that horrible Christmas Eve when we had first concerns about a tariff war increasing. Then we had the Federal Reserve raising rates on the 19th. That created a cascade, four down days in a row culminating in the down day on the 27th, on the 24th and turn around today. Meanwhile, the year, if you look at the percentage of up days, almost 54 , which is i think only the folks said only five years since 1928 have you had a more consistent pattern of up versus down days. One of the things about the rally is the breath is there, sometimes analysts will complain there is a small relative markets moving forward, big cap stocks have done well, microsoft and apple, the broad market advances, many days twotoone, threetotwo, so when have you new highs on the advanced decline list on top of new highs and the indexes, thats a very powerful rally hi carl. Hi david. Into is to see you i hope you had a good holiday, a good christmas bob, nice to see you here as well its been an interesting year from a macro perspective we started this year as you say with the federally in a hawkish position we end with a much more dovish tone and china conceivably at least if you listen to the president , a deal will be signed phase 1 very soon as we head into next year at least those two concerns that dominated the macro outlook this year have abated its what i call the four horsemen, number one the trade truce, its dominated up and down number two the Federal Reserve no longer hiking, cut three times, now neutral adding liquidity since october people under estimate, the market started moving all around in the beening of october, liquidity concerns, lick quiddity issues were dealt with, markets started moving up with homes of a trade truce and finally hopes for a bottom in the Global Economy we had new highs in the european indexes, new highs in japan, all on homes, those could reverse those four factors moved stocks this year. We know the consumer will drive the u. S. Economy, market returners and amazon says it broke all prior records for the season citing items sold world wide, mastercard says overall retail sales up 3, 4, record high growth of almost 19 . Amazon didnt give us too many specifics, grocery delivery 2 x year on year, one week, 5 million new prime memberships or prime trials its really been remarkable i think the most important thing about this year is the winners and losers we like to talk about Retail Stocks being rallying in the last couple of months, really, though, its a very small group. If you look at the numbers, you see target, best buy, costco, ross stores, walmart, theyre the leadership groups. What do they have in common . Theyre discounters, best buy is the bit of an exception. Whats the lag guards . The apparel, laggards. The apparel, nordstroms, kohls, gap, l brapdz, macys. Its hard to describe these companies are not anything close to what they used to be. I think thats the real statement here even though the consumer is good, there is very obvious winners and losers the journal with a piece out today saying tear 1 malls are starting to feel the pain, which has people focusing on the simons and the nathans the forever 21 bankruptcy there have been the 50 malls considered top tier have been thought to have been at least somewhat insulated given their diversity of restaurants which attract people and high end retail particularly in the communities which they are based. This trend keeps going gap, give them break that i need that extra 2. 5 billion. Macys the loser of the year. Yeah, macys is shocking at 4. 9 billion and of course the yield. Actually below 10 now only 9. 37 is the dividend on macys. We know its been a difficult year based in the malls. Its hard to see anything that gives a sign that its going to change when we look at the number, certainly coming out of christmas. Of course, people were hopeful that sales per square foot might increase. In weird ways theyre looking at the metrix i think the important thing is because you can add a new tesla study for example if your mall doesnt mean you are overall necessarily going to make a huge difference there has been all sorts of things tried i love restaurants, alternative events, entertainment, niles water slides i vote for that. You like nice water slides . We got to get people in medical complex. Going down the water slide carl, it has been interesting. Of course, we mentioned many times, amazon under performed the Broader Market s p up over 28 . Shares up 21, 22 this year. Retail, of course, continues to cost given the focus so much of the focus on same day or next day delivery there and what that will cost, the building out we all know of the own delivery network. Aws is certainly the profit bribeer of that company. Dont forget, this year ended with them contesting the decision by the pentagon to award that important contract to microsoft as opposed to the jedi contract to amazon theyre saying, hey, that you were playing favorites in a sense, trying to follow the lead of what they believe the president was saying given all the attacks hes had during the course of the year of jeff be ezos, the Washington Post and amazon, break down all the retail numbers is brian nagle, senior retail analyst. Thanks for coming in thanks for having many e. Lets start with the mastercard, three on four would you argue towards the low end of estimates or not i think thats basically in line we are kind of the midpoint of that obviously within those numbers which you were talking about stronger online sales even in store sales is up slightly 1. 2 which is overall positive. You couple that with tiffany said about mainlined china, hong kong and japan, what itself overall tone to you right now . Look, i there i the tiffany report right now is interesting. It doesnt mean much with the stock given the pending buy. You look at the tiffany report, you saw a couple positive things, one like you said carl, theyre continued strong sales in mainland china. This u. S. Tiffany brand is continuing to res fate also we saw a modest updig in domestic tiffanys has been struggling domestically to me thats an apology for tiffany, probably more importantly an apology for overall discretionary spending. What amazes me is despite the increase in online sales, i bring this up for the holidays all the time with my friends and family, they say, no, thats not possible i do all my shopping online. Yet, the evidence is an awful lot of shopping is still done facetoface in retail sites on brick and mortar stores. How do you account for the fact the public seems to think everything is done online but its not somebody is buying in stores rather aggressively still. I think its a great point. I think a company like best buy several years ago did a phenomenal job of recon figuring their Business Model to compete better online. You look at what they have now, yes they have 25 of sales online a lot of that is happening in the store that consumer, you are seeing the omni channel model take hold. The stores are still very important. That true for other retailers, thats why best buy is one of the best examples. What happens to the gaps and macys next year my universe, i dont spend a lot of time on clothing. I got to think that subsector continues to struggle. Thats where amazon is having a big impact amazon and other smaller brands are going direct to consumer with online. So my sense that they continue to struggle. I think what we are seeing now is this increasingly large divide between the winners and losers every year it gets wider and wider. On the winners, there are clearly physical retailers best buy one of them another name five below, its a smaller store that sells stuff historically is under 5, theyre doing really well in their stores do you think lvnh will be a better store than tiffanys was, whats amazing is how well they have done increasing margins for some of its high end Luxury Brands they have been rewarded for it, really amazing do you feel tiffanys will flourish under lmb sne. I do, i followed tiffany for more than a decade theyve had their ups and downs. Look, i think this move by lbmh is what that brand needs i also think there will be the potential for lbmh to sell a wider product in their portfolio if tiffany stores that will bolster that Product Selection for customers. Whats the lesson of best buy . And i can remember sitting at this desk four years ago lets call it when the stock was at lows, maybe it was 5 people were saying maybe theyll go private or try and figure something out and theyre getting amazon, theyre getting showroom thats what we kept talking about. What did they do right and what is it that other retailers have looked at or failed to understand from best buys experience and be able to replicate . Its a great question if i had to sum it up, i think there are probably two big take away, one, this sounds simple, take amazon seriously as a competitor we used to talk about showroom all the time what allowed that to happen is best pie was fought pricing against amazon the consumer comes into the store, look at the tv, an their smartphone realize they can purchase it cheaper at amazon. Best buy is pricing against amazon is a positive leverage the power of the stores especially for a category like Consumer Electronics where especially larger screen tvs or other pieces, people want to see that product they want to be educated on that product. So really take amazon seriously, leverage the power of these stores i think the key point is how rare best buy is, we were talking its not quite a unicorn, its usually nike for example, lululemon, they stand out as unusual considering the number of the disaster in some of the Department Stores and apparel, nike is there and lululemon is there, too. Again, the group thats real winners is remarkably small. I totally agree, the clue is with online with digital, those brands are learning or really leveraging less of a need for distribution partners. Theyre going more direct to consumer its helping their margins as they bring digital into their Business Models, its helping the Product Development as well. For me, i think best buy, pickup is a huge issue pickup fulfillment, 60 year on year i mean thats, for those who dont want to go in around be educated, thats a big deal. Yeah, most retailers are i call it talk about buy an line pickup in store representing 70 of online sales. So going online, purchasing the product, subsequently going to the store and picking it up. Is there any retailer you can think that next year will say that was surprising resurgence or they suddenly got it . Target has been an example we seen this year, not that they were in that bad of a place. They picked it up enormously, the stock reflected that, any sense that any consumer will be talking about in that what i well, i have been talking act lows for a while, not necessarily a holiday play i think the lows under new management, lowes, stock is still cheap, i think we look towards 2020, thats the year that lowes catches that stride in that Home Improvement which is overall healthy home environment. Home depot the last couple quarters home depot is an extraordinarily well run company. I think they have been weaker and i think thats because lowe is getting better. Thank you when we come back, new developments surrounding the boeing 737 max documents regarding the jet reportedly being viewed as quote very disturbing. We will fill you in on that. Lets give you another look at futures as we get ready for the open 15 minutes from now more squawkon the street, live from postnine when we come ck im happy to give you the tour, i love doing it. Hey jay. Jay . Charlotte oh hi. He helped me set up my watch lists. Oh, hes terrific. Excellent tennis player. Byebye. I recognize that voice. Annie . Yeah she helped me find the right bonds for my income strategy. Youre very popular around here. Theres a birthday going on. Karl he took care of my 401k rollover. Wow, you call a lot. Yeah, well its my money were talking about here. Joining us for karaoke later . Ah, id love to, but people get really emotional when i sing. Help from a team that will exceed your expectations. vo than just the business theryou came for. More whether thats getting a taste of where you are, or bringing some of that flavor back home. Thats room for possibility. Lets get to living boeing remains the focus after Dennis Mullenberg was ousted, reuters reveal what is being called very disturbing revelations from boeing employees regarding the grounded 737 max jet. Boeing issued a statement saying it had proactively brought documents to the faa and congress and said the tone and content of those documents which we are not aware of the specifics of they do not reflect the company we are and need to be guys, we talked, of course, on the day mr. Calhoun announced the incoming ceo january 13th of his immediate outreach to both customers and regulators, including the faa. Mullenbergs relationship with the faa to put it mildly was not the best at this point given sort of the waive he had been prodding pushing them putting dates out there they hasntdnt agreed to. There was a reboot a lot of people had credibility problems in the last year theyre not the only ones. These are very specific issues with the company for example, 3m several profit warnings we saw, issues there. The stock has been down on the year fedex, another company out there, that had very specific issues related to them even though they are tied into the Global Economy slowing or not slowing the story. So this is a good reminder that you cant just go out and buy index funds the rest of your life are you putting a warning out there for fred and for mike at 3m im saying several Big Companies had very specific issues around them this year that was unrelated to the 30,000 views i tend to give of the u. S. Economy and the Global Economy and the markets moving in tandem with big global thieves. They continue to worsen during the year one of the biggerest if not the single largest corporate story. Without a doubt i saw some polls of other ceos calling it the bigger disaster story of the year. A reporter says boeing has been doing a lot of internal survey work how it will market this plane once it returns to service. In the past month, their polling shows 40 of regular buyers will be unwilling to get on this plane. Some say 40s low who knows are you going to do what you say, walk the walk . Its hard to know at this point. They got a lot of things calhoun has on his plate to deal with as you say trying to turn Public Opinion in their favor, the plane is something they want to get on, dealing with the airlines, of course, dealing with the faa, figuring out when this thing will be able to come back into service. Getting the work force back up and running. Theyre right now theyre not what ra they called theyre not laid off, furloughed, theyre just not making planes anymore, but the question is, will that also change, too of course, the broader issue is the faa here. This ridiculously complicated plane, all planes are complicated at this point, but whats the criteria to make i make sure its safe . Cramer said, 320, 300 has been a firm floor has not really violated it despite all of this. When we come back, speaking of shakeups, the 2019 ceo shakeup will look at shares of how companies have faired since the departure of their leaders shares look good as the nasdaq is going for a win streak at 10. That you got to go back to a prior decade to see before squawk on the street from post9s is bk acin a moment. My name is john and im a 30 day fitness app user. I work long hours and i have no time to go to the gym. This app solves my problems. Its super easy, all the exercises include demonstration videos. I love the 30 day fitness app. European markets have been closed for boxing day, but our own nasdaq is going for ten straight wins hasnt done that since a 12day win streak in july of 2009 the opening bell is in 6 minutes. What if numbers tell only half the story . At t. Rowe price, hundreds of our experts go beyond the numbers to examine Investment Opportunities firsthand. Like a biotech firm that engineers a patients own cells to fight cancer. This is strategic investing. Because your investments deserve the full story. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. You are watching cnbc squawkon the street, live from the Financial Capital of the world. Opening bell on this day after the Christmas Holiday. We got today and tomorrow, really a vacuum of news until next friday when we start getting some pmis bob. I think the important thing here is it wont matter. The last few days we got the santa claus rally, the tendency for the markets to move up the last five days the trend this year for december is where it has been in the historic past. Last december was a bit of an anomaly. What strikes me as amazing is the big move in the biggest cap tex stocks where microsoft outperform and the bank rally we saw in the third and Fourth Quarter as yields started novembering up j. P. Morgan up 40 goldman up 40 all of the regional banks, regions financial, fifth third all moving up dramatically in the Fourth Quarter. For that, david, we have to wait i know j. P. Morgan kicks off earnings season on the 14th. Goldmans investor day, the next day maybe. Really midmonth of january, we will get a better look goldman investor days an important one. There was some expectation there were gift targets and so there has been a bit of a i dont want to call it confusion, at least some questions about what youre going to get there certainly its going to be about changes going on at goldman, which are not insignificant in terms of all of its various efforts aimed at a different customer than typical for goldman. Thats an important day for that stock. The steepening of the yield curve is number one, the str