Eamon javers joins us this morning with the latest. Good morning. Reporter good morning, carl. Its oddly quiet here at the white house today. We dont see Senior Administration officials out here defending the president or making arguments we dont see any events scheduled with the president publicly, other than his departure later on this afternoon. Nonetheless, the president has been venting some of his frustration that we saw boil over in that letter to nancy pelosi yesterday and continues in tweets this morning the president saying can you believe that ill be impeached today by the radical left do nothing democrats and i did nothing wrong. A terrible thing read the transcripts this should never happen to another president again. Say a prayer and, carl, having covered the last impeachment, so far today this day feels very different than the day on which the president president bill clinton was impeached back in the late 1990s on that day, there was a real sense of uncertainty about what would happen it was magnified by the fact that the sexual scandals going on at that time were sort of evolving and hitting a lot of figures, including the speaker of the house, the man we thought would be speaker of the house, bob livingston, resigning on that same day in dramatic fashion. We dont see any of that chaos or high drama today. In fact everyone in washington now assumes they know whats going to happen here and the forecast is for the president to be impeached today and then acquitted by the senate in january. Well see if that forecast holds true, carl. Eamon, his twitter account is especially active today, mostly retweeting others this morning at least do we think that sense of calm will translate to battle creek tonight . Reporter i dont i think this is the calm before the storm to use an overuse cliche the president is clearly taking to twitter venting some of that frustration. Tonight aides like the idea that theyll have a split screen moment tonight the house of representatives may still be impeaching the president even as he takes to the stage in battle creek, michigan hes going to be in front of they estimate about 10,000 adoring fans in a state that he needs to win, that hes looking to win in 2020 and the message will be america loves the president , or at least these supporters in michigan love the president and the president i think there will deliver his response to whats going on here in washington today eamon, thank you. Reporter you bet. So how do todays impeachment proceedings impact investors . As the end of 2019 quickly approaches, joining us is ben mandel along with yanna barton ben, ill start with you the fact that this does seem to be an event, these impeachment proceedings, that the market is largely shrugging off, why why is that the case with clinton the market did not shrug it off so why such a different reaction this time around i think theres a consensus thats crystallized around this idea that it gets through the house but not the senate and so thats from a market perspective, that seems fully baked into the cake. And i think thats right for the most part. Its worth considering what are the ways in which that would have an impact on the economy and markets were that to kind of derail in either direction and i think for us, we think about the interaction with trade policy as something thats very important, so weve rung the alarm bell twice this year on Recession Risks, both having to do with trade risks. Once in may when we were threatening to put tariffs on all of mexican imports, again in the summer when it looked like we were on this path with china and so thats come down. I think the question is would impeachment in either direction have a bearing on how aggressive u. S. Trade policy is and actually to be frank, i dont think it does. So i think were comfortable with the consensus view that this is an event but not a significant event from a market perspective. I think the consensus is right. Yanna, i want to get your thoughts on this if impeachment does not have a bearing on the market right now, meantime what we have seen is some pretty meaty legislation finally begin to make its way through congress simultaneously. Does that have an impact on the market here, whether its usmca, spendsi spending bill, drug prices,som of the other things that are poised to become reality thats a great point, morgan. I think at the end of the day while we are infatuated by the politics, i think the market is focused on the policies driving the markets. They are looking forward and i think they are shrugging off the event, it will be a nonevent come january what will have an impact and hopefully a positive one, the trade policies, tariff resolutions and talks that really lead to positive implication to the sentiment Capital Spending and so forth. So i think thats what the markets are telling us slowly were seeing that come through in terms of earnings revisions and growth expectations into the next year. Ben, once were in january, the first trading day, well be about 60 days from super tuesday, right its coming right down on us so i think even if were looking forward, theres a political question is there probably more market turmoil if there appears to be a moderate democrat in a leading position who might actually beat the president , or if theres a more leftleaning democrat who has less of a chance of beating the president but is more hostile to corporate interests i think we can approach that with a degree of humility when people made two mistakes, the consensus on who was going to be elected and also the Market Reaction to that a lot can happen in 60 days. Its probably not going to be clear who the democratic frontrunner is until super tuesday. So until then, i think that risk premium adds a little volatility but not a lot of direction at the beginning of the year. Keep in mind, thats all taking place against the backdrop of an economy globally thats looking a little better next year than it did this year so the fact that the Global Industrials im sorry, the Global Industrial sector manufacturing had a very difficult 2019, and thats starting to improve, starting to stabilize in our forecast, it improves over the course of the next year. So i think thats a relatively constructive backdrop. Keep in mind Recession Risk is a little bit lower than it was recently and Monetary Policy is a back stop so all of that is a relatively favorable environment for risk assets. So weve been edging into equities a little bit less into credit and duration. Although consensus is were not going to get the rate cuts next year, i woke up and theres headlines about eu trade, theres headlines about working with india on a potential deal obviously chinese are not confirming phase one how much do you think the market is overestimating the simplicity of the trade dynamic right now well, whats interesting is that imagine if all these headwinds become tailwinds or at least some form of resolution and thats exactly what were seeing in the marketplace right now. When you turn back to politics, i think there were areas of the market that got really punished. Health care has been a perfect example where its second worst performer to date, particularly because we dont know who the frontrunner might be. And whoever it is, will obviously have a negative implications to the policies that relate to that space. But looking forward, i think the missing link of the leadership that weve seen is really Investors Sentiment and consumer really backing up the trend here and what you need to say is really the sentiment coming through on the Capital Spending side so once we know what the rules of engagement are, i think what youre seeing, you will see a lot more resolution come through and, again, revenues and Earnings Growth story will come to fruition and thats what were seeing were still extremely positive on the equity market i think the wall that weve climbed to date has been extraordinary but its been on the heels of multiple expansion with no earnings to speak of if that reverses, i think you can see a really healthy run into the next year. So, ben, what does worry you next year . On the trade question, i dont think its totally off the question, first of all the ink is not even on the paper, never mind dry on this phase one agreement, so theres some downside and convexity there. But the complexion of the trade issue is very different. Weve had some resolution on nafta, on u. S. china, theres this bilateral deal with japan but you still have a lot of openended issues with europe, the wto is effectively being dismantled so i think what were seeing is were in the middle of the process of going from multilateral trading system to one thats much more regional and bilateral. Thats going to be a bumpy ride. But more broadly going into an election, does the president s thinking, is it more im going to look like a fighter and get hawkish or maybe more hawkish or i want stability for the economy sake and i get more dovish, at least on trade . In principle i think you can have it both ways. You can be a fighter against europe where it doesnt have global systemic implications for markets. The idea is right to back away from u. S. china and move on to these smaller, not irrelevant, but from a market perspective. So i think you can be a fighter and a peace maker at the same time lets see. We certainly will see im sure were not done talking about all of this by any means ben and yana, thank you for joining us today well, tech tops 2019 as the best performer so far this year. Our next guest says there may be more room to run before the year ends dan niles, Hedge Fund Manager and the founder of apple one Capital Partners joins us now. Dan, good morning. Good morning, john. Well, its been a tough year to call. You told us that around midyear, i think it was august. You made a call midyear about semi conductors. Semi conductors have continued to do well you were iffy on the iphone launch, the iphone 11. Thats done pretty well. Whats going on here what did you get wrong and what do you see happening as we head into 2020 . Yeah, i mean i think everybody has been surprised at how strong the u. S. Economy has held up given all the things going on in trade. Obviously getting to a phase one trade deal, thats been great. The other thing quite honestly i didnt really count on was the fed starting to go through qe again. Theyre saying its not qe but at the point youre buying 60 billion a month, i think most people would say that is qe. And youve had the fed obviously being very dovish going forward. So all of those things lining up, obviously getting through the brexit, the vote this last weekend where Boris Johnson won a landslide, that takes disorderly brexit off the table and so when you look at that the market just keeps melting up and thats why i put out that tweet on monday morning under my handle saying when the market is up 20 , over 20 going into the last two weeks of the year, it gains another 1. 2 on average to finish the year. This year with a lot of these risks behind us thats why it happens that way and thats why people talk about a santa claus rally or a january effect. We were just looking at some of your favorite picks heading into 2020 on trends like 5g, chips, et cetera, et cetera. One thing i didnt see up there was cloud. And so i look at names like sal salesforce, adobe, sap, vmware are those less significant than the 5g plays some say 5g will start to have an impact in 2021, not 2020. Yeah, we actually do like the cloud but were looking at it more from the hardware side. So, you know, if you look at the cloud, probably about six to nine months of digestion going on there what youve seen is youve started to see the demand on the hardware side start to pick up again. Public cloud is only 15 of the workload today but thats growing at about 30 per year so thats obviously going up quite a bit. People get amd, for example, we own that one their Data Processor sales were 50 . We like nvidia as well where the numbers have been coming down for about a year those started to go up again their Data Center Revenues were up 11 in their most recent quarter. So we actually do like the cloud. Weve gone through the six to ninemonth digestion phase and now that should start to turn back on as you look into next year. Dan, u. S. china trade deal or not, there has been arguably this shift happening, this decoupling happening between the u. S. And china in terms of tech, whether its chips or some of the other key technologies to watch right now. Its been happening for the last couple of years as china has been investing to start to lower its reliance on u. S. Technology. Number of executives ive spoken to both on camera and off have voiced concerns that what this trade war has done is basically accelerated chinas move to cutaway from dependence on u. S. Chips and other Tech Companies how do you see it, and what does that mean in terms of investments in 2020 and beyond in the sector . Yeah, morgan, i think you brought up probably the most important point from a fundamental basis when you look at 2020. Youre absolutely correct. China now views getting into areas like semi conductors, technology, as something of a National Security issue. Its not just even a financial opportunity. And so unfortunately i think what youre going to see happen or not necessarily unfortunately, but what youre going to see happen is theres going to end up being almost two ecosystems starting to develop where the chinese do not want to have reliance on u. S. Technology products for example, if you look at huaweis new 5g phone that just came out, when that was torn down, there were no u. S. Chips in it at all youre going to start to see memory production starting to ramp up early this next year where theyre going go from 0 of the Worldwide Market in drams, for example, which are chips that go into everything, its goingto get to 5 and kee climbing so i think when you get to the back half of next year in particular, its going to get very interesting because a lot of the new phones that come out, typically u. S. Wireless companies, for example, they gain content every year. Every year it goes up. I think what will get interesting is the end of next year when you go into the holiday season, you may see chinese phones that dont have u. S. Chips in them right now the market doesnt care stocks are going up, which means they go up even more apple sounds great and air pods are sold out until january 13th, i think i saw when i looked online so the market just follows the path of least resistance, which is higher. But eventually you will go back to focusing on fundamentals and the point you brought up i think is one of the most important. Dan niles of alpha one making calls and naming names, which i appreciate a lot of people will shy away from that, but right or wrong, you put yourself on the record we love it viewers love it. Dan, thanks. Thank you, jon, appreciate it when we come back, fedex obviously getting slammed here, down almost 10 after that big miss well discuss. Plus, peloton parody how one congressionacaide l ndat use a widely mocked ad to campaign [spokesman] if youve tried college but never finished, group cheering snhu lets you transfer up to 90 credits toward you bachelors degree. [woman] it doesnt matter how old you are, you can do it, you can finish. [spokesman] finish your degree at snhu. Edu amazon is in the spotlight today. A new report from Business Insider says the company is helping protect some of its vendors from the trump tariffs by paying up to 25 more for the goods it resells the report says amazon buys products wholesale for these suppliers commonly called first party vendors. Erica poe is managing partner thats invested in Ecommerce Companies and farhud mangi welcome. Theres been so much coverage of amazon and discussion of Regulatory Risk, practices regarding vendors, is that why returns on the year have been subpar on a relative basis to faang i dont know the direct correlation but heres a good thing amazon is doing. Theyre protecting the consumer by paying more wholesale for the products and selling them for the same price for once despite all of the criticism that amazon gets, theyre doing a good thing. Certainly with victims in its path far out, if you look at fedex today. This war between them and fedex has been sort of ramping up i mean its interesting. What a read, amazon is now shipping almost half of its own stuff. So they are kind of building up their own Delivery Network, which we kind of knew for a while. I saw these amazon trucks delivering stuff to me ive got to say i think they are more reliable than when another carrier delivers it. So maybe thats their obsession, Customer Service so thats what theyre winning on. Eric, is amazon going too far in a lot of these different areas . We were just talking about this New York Times piece about the cloud and how they might be crowding out by copying some of the people trying to operate on their cloud and the enterprise space. We were talking about shipping with fedex is it brazen, is it okay, is it just the way Big Companies do business some of it is brazen. Making an exact copy of a shoe, now, you cant copyright a shoe, right . So anybody can copy it but to say, hey, this is an exact copy, im going to sell it to you for half the price. Its not biodegradable, thats brazen but on the other hand theyre following the playbook of all the big Tech Companies which is use your platform with the amount of data that you have and all the Customer Interactions and then start another business. Amazon started this with the Cloud BusinessCloud Business is the most profitable part of amazon probably a 40 billion business. Standalone would be worth a lot of money now theyre going into shipping. Theyre definitely going to be a competitor to fedex and to u. P. S. They deliver almost as many packages as fedex today. Now we see this in advertising as well. The advertising business is growing leaps and bounds and doesnt rival google yet but is definitely going very fast so youv