Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20240713

Pulled that into this. Treasury, we want treasury to be able to have the cash that it needs and we are essentially taking that to our work. There may come a time when we talk about that. I think we are more focused, frankly, on the bill purchases the year end and review of supervisory and regulatory issues that were digging into and we think these are structural things, right just allow the liquidity that is already there to flow more freely perhaps by making fairly straightforward noncontroversial changes. We think there is some of that if they take role changes, it will take three months and things like that these things that were working on now, like going through year end with the overnight facilities and the bill purchases and the term repo, those are things we have to do right now and are doing. Chris hi. I wanted to ask the only change in the statement was a drop in the reference to uncertainties around the economy you seem very confident or it implies theres a lot of confidence that those uncertainties have gone away what caused you to make that change for the statement what were you looking at if you look at the statement youll notice we called out inflation pressures later in the statement. Why did we do that those are things weve been monitoring all year. Weve put in policies to readdress those things those are key things we thought it was appropriate to mention them there still subject to the idea that for us to change our stance, we would want to see the material reassessment of the outlook. On the material reassessment aspect, are you worried that that set too high of a bar for potential cuts next year we were talking about rate heights but no fed policymaker seems to for see any cuts next year some economists do does the material reassessment mean you need to see data actually worsen . Does it reduce your ability to react preemptively arguably the way you did this year . 75 basis points worth of cuts and we do believe that Monetary Policy operates with long and variable lags and it will take some time before the full effects of those actions are seen in the economy. So that will take some time. Thats one reason to hold back and to wait. We think we took strong measures in fact, if you look at more broadly at the treasury yield curve, it has moved more than 75 basis points youve had quite a significant move in the direction. In terms of what is material at the end of the day, i would say whether or not it merits a policy response, there isnt any single factor that will determine our decisions. Well look at a full range of data and other information bearing on Economic Outlook. Thank you, mr. Chairman you started out talking about mr. Voluker, who cast a long sha o i wonder if that shadow was too long and if the fed was too quick to raise Interest Rates to attack an inflation boogie man that didnt materialize. My response will not be about paul volker. Look back at 2018. We had an economy growing at 3 . We had inflation at 2 and we had 1. 5 trillion, and the federal funds rate was 1. 4 . We never got policy even at the level of what we thought the neutral rate was at the time theres no sense of it being restrictive. We took steps to make it less accommodative. That seemed to be the right thing. In hindsight it still seems to be the right thing the idea we were trying to slow the economy down, we were just trying to get near neutral with the last rate increase a year ago, we were meaningfully below the median estimate. Policy was always accommodative during the course of that year you saw the Global Economic slowdown begin in the middle of last year, just look at the imf forecast of growth from the spring of 2018 and compare them to now i think there will be a very wide range of estimates, meaning effect, to a lesser extent through the tariff effects thats not to make a judgment. Thats not up to us to make a judgment about that. That would be my story. Chair powell, donna borak with cnn can you talk about what you would imagine the economic effect would be if negotiations were with china were to fall apart and how the fed would support the economy in that event . I wouldnt want to speculate on a hypothetical. Well have to see. We look at a range of factors. We try to look through volatility in trade news we try not to react. We cant react mol Monetary Policy is not the tool to in the short term to volatility and things that can change back and forth, back and forth, as is probably typical of a large, complex negotiation again, i dont want to get into hypothetical outcomes if thats all right. You met with the president last month did you have any advice for him when it came to this did you express some concerns about potential volatility and the impact given all of this im going to stick with my predecessors longtime practice of not discussing private meetings with elected or other officials really but thank you. Thank you yesterday Democratic Leaders in the house have launched an impeachment process against the president. Have you mentioned these developments within the committee as potentially presenting some risks for the confidence in the economy . No, we have not we dont consider things like tha that. Does the feds dob plot still serve useful communications purpose or do you feel it might be time to retire or change it in some fashion . I think properly understood, it can be useful, but thats been a challenge i think properly understood, to me, means looking at what it is and not at what it isnt what it is, its an expression of the thinking about individual committee members, about appropriate Monetary Policy and the path of the economy. Remember we write all that down and send it in, and it gets compiled but we dont discuss it at the meeting or negotiate a play. There is no agreement, no plan i think particularly at inflection points, its hard to convey the reality, which is that policy is always going to depend on the Economic Outlook and changes in the Economic Outlook. When the Economic Outlook is changing, the dots are just not a consideration. Were going to do what we think is the right thing for the economy. Dot weiss did six months or three months ago dont agree with that, thats not even in the conversation its more it can be useful. And i think but as i said its been a challenge. So i do like to say if you focus too much on the dots, you can miss the broader picture. Greg rapp from market watch chairman powell, many people seem worried that the framework you guys are working on is going to be the results are going to be less rather than more. People keep coming back and saying why, asking why you took off like a 4 inflation rate off the table even when it started as you said, going around the country for all the listen events, i dont think i heard anybody worry about a 4 inflation rate or think that higher inflation rate would be a problem. Where does that concern come from is it members of congress that have said this no. So let me say, weve been working on this all year were just at the stage where weve had a really interesting discussion about the various tools that we have at the october meeting. At this meeting, we talked about the way Monetary Policy affects different groups in the economy. We talked about the fed listens events and some very Interesting Research so were just getting to the stage where were looking at conclusions. You know, what do we take away from all of this many of those things would wind up as changes, if you will, modifications to the statement of longerrun goals and monetary strategy i think that process will take until the middle of the year but we want to approach it very thoroughly, very carefully and in effect that is our framework document i wouldnt prejudge. No one i believe we will be able to reach a successful conclusion and make meaningful improvements i do in terms of 4 i think its premature for people to be saying this isnt going anywhere if you define going anywhere as a 4 inflation target, let me talk about the 4 inflation target ill go back to the point that just saying words is not itself credible i think if you said were raising the inflation target to four, what would be the effect of that . Where is the credibility in that really you havent been able to get it to 2 i think you need to lower your sights a little bit. I also think is 4 you have to ask the question, is that really, you know, price stability . Is that really price stability is that within our legal mandate . I think thats a legal question. So, you know, i think i would like for this review to come out with a set of positive results meaningful improvements. It doesnt mean it has to solve every problem Going Forward. We want to have this be a successful exercise where we meaningfully improve our Monetary Policy framework. These things dont tend to move and alert you. In a way they tend to evolve if we do this then in a few years again and again, things like that, at least were moving in a good direction. I think we will be im confident we will be. Don mi with the l. A. Times. Youve had a busy year as you look back i wonder what things you might have done differently and what lessons you will take into next year. Well, you know, i have to say my total focus is on right now and getting policy right and thinking about next year, you know thinking about what is the economy going to be doing . I like where we are in policy. My policy stance is appropriate, and likely to remain so, as long as the outlook is broadly like this you know, i mean, its too long of a question. I dont know how to get after that theres a lot of learning that comes into from the economy every year and in the way we do our jobs and were always going to be trying to learn lessons. Are there any particular surprises, whether its the economy or markets or financial so, yeah. I didnt obviously, you know, i didnt see, and i dont think anybody saw coming, the challenges we face this had year they were a surprise toward the end of 2018 there was still a sense that the economy was growing at around 3 , and didnt expect to face the challenges, but i think we did face them. And i am pleased that we moved to support the economy in the way that we did. I think our moves will prove appropriate. And i think both the economy and Monetary Policy right now, i think, are in a good place. Nancy. Nancy from marketplace. Why arent we seeing stronger wage gains wages are growing more slowly now than they were toward the beginning of the year. Why is that . Well, wage gains have moved up a bit if you look back three, four years, youll see wages were moving up 2 now you see them moving up more 3, 3. 5 . Why arent they growing higher, at a faster rate its a couple of things. I think there are a range of explanations one would be that productivity has just been low. Wages should go up to cover inflation and productivity productivity has been low. And that is very likely to be holding back wages i also think there are other possible, potential explanations such as globalization can be the idea that you can make manufacturer or even provide services anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world, i think that hangs over the wage setting process. And everywhere pretty much you dont see there isnt the kind of traction in the wage market that even in a tight labor market another thing is, though, that the labor market may not be as tight as we had thought it was and, you know, i think there are many, many possible explanations i will say, though, if you look, for example, at nonsupervisory employees in the labor report, their wages are going up at 3. 7 so you do see and wages are going up the most for people at the lower end of the thats been true the last couple of years, lower end of the wage spectrum you do see wages moving up theyre not moving up at very high rates and again at the end of theday that probably has most to do with productivity. Can i ask a quick followup as far as the market not being as tight as you thought, are you saying theres still more people on the sidelines who could join the labor force . Yes and i would also say that we if you ask people, and we did ask people, what do you think the natural rate of unemployment is people were writing down numbers in the fives and the fours now unemployment has been in the threes for a year and a half and we still see Wage Inflation, as you mentioned, level of Wage Inflation has moved down there may be compositional effects in that number younger workers coming in at lower wages than retiring workers. That shouldnt be have much of an effect. There may be more slack in the economy. Were seeing that. It really showed up to higher participation. For many years, we thought theres a trend, decline in participation. Notwithstanding that, against that trend, prime age participation has been moving up pretty steadily the last two, three years. Its a very positive thing but certainly does provide more labor supply, meaning a less tight labor market. Hi. Hannah lang with american banker thanks for being here today. I want to ask about the Community Reinvestment act since the fdic and occ may potentially join together for a proposal without the fed. Are you concerned this might cause confusion and how would the mechanics work if this proposal is finalized without the fed . We know the cra is a very important law. Were strongly committed to the mission of ensugar that banks provide credit throughout their committees, particularly addressing low to moderate income households. We think its time for modernization. We thought that for some time. We worked very hard to try to get aligned with the occ really on a proposal. My hope is that we can still do that i dont know whether thats possible or not. Well have to say. If we cant, im not sure what the path forward would be. We certainly would not want to create confusion or, you know, tension between the regimes if they do turn out to be slightly different regimes. I hope thats not something we have to face but will if we have to. Brian chung before the july meeting you said to call something hot you would need to see some heat, referring to the labor market. On nancys question, it seems that its pretty well explored already. What would you need to see to call the labor market hot in that case . A change out of the headline number of gains or in the Unemployment Rate . Really, wages so many other measures suggest that the labor market i like to say that the labor market is strong i dont really want to say that its tight someone asked me a question about a hot labor market i dont know that its tight youre not seeing wage increases. Ultimately, it should result in higher wage increases. It does come down to that, you know we look at countless measures of labor market labor utilization. Theres so many its too many to count. The one thats suggesting its a healthy number, sort of 3. 1 average Hourly Earnings number is a decent number 3. 17 is more healthy. Ultimately, though, we would like to see to call it hot, you would want to see heat you would want to see, you know, higher wages thanks. Good afternoon. Welcome to the closing bell, everyone chair powell keeping rates on holiday. S p near the highs of the session, up about a quarter of 1 , yields tenyear at 178, so the market taking todays press conference slightly constructively, slightly dovishly, but i say slightly with emphasis because s p is only slightly higher and tenyields moved to 178 from the open not huge moves in the context of things. A very big lineup of guests are ready to react to todays fed decision theyre going to break down the market for us. Plus former minneapolis fed chair president and former fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin whether today is the right one for the economy. Josh brown of ritz Wealth Management joins us. If i could sum up his press conference, riveting look at my knuckles. At the edge of my seat theres a character in this novel called found ace he goes to the foreign planet, spends the whole week meeting with everybody and theyre recording every second of him, cameras and mics and go and decipher what it all means it turns out he had all these conversations with top dignitaries and officials and said absolutely nothing. I think thats actually good were back in that realm with our fed chair. Its a throwback in some respects there really isnt anything to say. He addressed the plumbing. We heard about the funding markets, shortterm markets. Great. Not much ado about that lately anyway then they put out the 2020 3. 7. The market is fine with that, perfectly fine dollar is down 0. 4 . Paul mccauley, michelle meyer, head of u. S. Economics, david ze zervos at jeffries good afternoon to you all. Paul, ill start with you. The scope now, the hurdle to see another rate cut or rate hike is incredibly high from where we stand today. Yes, it is. Thats what mr. Powell said last time and with fist on table this time at the same time i think he stressed he did a really great job of this that its asymmetric in that the hurdle for easing would not be terribly high because they really do not want to see the economy weaken from here, but the hurdle for tightening would be exceedingl high because they actually want Inflation Higher he was most explicit he has been since he has been in the job that he wants inflation up, damn it. He sure does. He talked about that repoe market and did a fairly good job of explaining the feds action, what they did. Even if we dont really know the entire reasoning for the moves that we saw there. What did you make of his commentary and whats expected Going Forward for the actions to be continued i think what the fed is trying to do is to be very clear to markets that they have this under control. At least thats what they want to present i think jay powell did that today as well. That said, we wont really know until we get through a certain number of key events, particularly the end of the year maybe the fed doesnt quite have a handle on it, indeed, market watchers will worry. They have the repoe facilities they are expanding their Balance Sheet for technical reasons, adding reserves to the system, talking about pt move toward organic Balance Sheet expansion, something ultimately theyll need to do i think that, you know, he talked around the issue. He didnt get too many specifics. I think that was partly intentional. He also doesnt want to give specifics in this setting per se he doesnt want to appear its a form of Monetary Policy. Its plumbing. Its technical. Everything he does is very intentional. Well catch you up on some of the key things that fed chair jay powell said in todays News Conference my colleagues and i decided to leave our policy rate unchanged after lowering it a total of. 75 at the previous three meetings despite Global Developments and ongoing looks, we have a positive out look. We expect inflation will rise to 2 the median of participants rises to 1. 9 next year and 2 in 2021 if developments emerge that cass a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond according accordingly. Policy is not in our preset course inflation is barely moving up, notwithstanding that unemployment is at 50year lows and expected to remain there so the need for rate increases is less. After the last couple of months, repoe markets have been functioning well markets are functioning. We think that the pressures appear manageable and we stand ready to adjust as necessary in trade negotiations we try not to react we cant react Monetary Policy is not the right tool to react in a very short term to volatility i think both the economy and Monetary Policy right now, i think were in a good place. Lets get reaction from Steve Liesman who, of course, was in that room today. What do you make of chair Powells Press Conference in general . I think that he gave us some meat around the bones of this regime that the Federal Reserve is in, this Holding Pattern that its in. And i think i asked a pretty logical question which is, okay, you told us that the rate cuts were like 98 how much further can we push the analogy . I pointed out that in seven months after that, the Federal Reserve began hiking rates are these the kind of cuts you take back or are we at a new steady state not the kind of cuts you take back i think that even when the risks of trade were to go away or even Global Economic weakness were to go away, i think chairman powell feels like were at a rate that he can still maintain, doesnt have to take back the insurance. And i think thats an important thing for the market when you try to in this new regime try to game out how long is the hold, what is the potential next move mccauley had it absolutely right, asymmetry, the unfairness, if you will, of the new policy it will be easier to cut and much harder to hike from here. Thats the bottom line of what powell told us he thinks he has the repo market under control. That, we shall see in a couple of weeks. Steve, stick with us. I thought you looked even more riveted during the montage just now. It was the music, though. It was the music . I love a good sound over tape. Do you know whats interesting to me . One of the reporters, i forget who it was, just asked chairman powell about where is the wage growth like why is it not accelerating through year end why did it seem to be faster earlier this year . I feel as though we need to have this acceptance that the nature of work itself has changed and the tools were using to make things like wage growth, the market and participation, theyre from the 60s the flexibility of the u. S. Worker, the ability to take on different jobs at different times, it doesnt all compute the way you might like to see it theres some realization on this, but maybe less on the feds part the fed cant solve that youve got massive changeover, boomers retiring at the top of the income scale who is replacing them . 73 million millennials joining the workforce, coming in at entrylevel salaries that is not if you follow one person and their trajectory, you see them getting raises. If you follow them in the aggregate you will not see the same velocity that you would see in the same cycle. We need to understand, in many respects, were using old tools to look at a new economy and you wont always see the data you expect after rates have been this low for this long. I wanted to bring in the discussion as well, in particular what you think about the potential pressures on the dollar Going Forward it seems pretty clear, were not going to get a rate hike any time soon from the fed its plausible now, perhaps, that the next rate hike comes from somebody else, ecb, bank of england or bank of japan the rate in absolute terms could be well below the fed. Is it plausible that that now happens . I really dont think were looking at rate hike stories for europe, japan. Certainly japan or the uk with all the even after the election i think thats probably a more farfetched story. Weve had three rate cuts. Weve had a significant increase in the Balance Sheet and a commitment to that and the dollar is still not that far off of its, you know, multidecade highs on a trade way to basis for all the people that a lot of people are out there that really do want to sell the dollar on this more dovish outlook. Its kind of not working as well as people might have hoped, which tells you there is underlying Dollar Strength or shorts in the dollar the repo market tells you people are short dollars, they need to borrow them. Rates theyre willing to borrow them at go up. We borrow a lot of dollars globally at qe period at very low rates particularly outside the u. S. There are a lot of people struggling to pay those dollars back and theres demand for them im not a versta sum short strategies the trade for this coming year, 2020, is really a kind of modified version of what happened in the mid 1990s, which is we got the soft landing after the rate cuts, equity markets took off the only difference is we wont get the fixed income selloff we got in 96 after the 95 rate cuts because as chair powell said this is not the same story as the 90s. This is a very different inflation story and a fed which is committed as Paul Mccauley told us earlier, and steve reiterated, fed that is committed to driving Inflation Higher that was not the case in the 1990s. Its a very, very asymmetric fed reaction really Important Message that many in the market have not fully absorbed. David you were talking about the trade. Lets talk about trade in another sense. The chair also said look, Monetary Policy is not the appropriate way to react to changes fiscal policy. The two have to be more intertwined today than perhaps they have been in recent years we dont know whats going to happen december 15th how do you think the markets are interpreting what the Federal Reserve is playing out in its own scenarios for the trade policy i think, look, trade policy, you can put that through the fed frbs model and say its going to contract demand, it possibly has price pressure increases in the short term aggregate will probably negate those. Its a Slower Growth story that comes out of it. Feedback effects if your partners retaliate against you they can do the scenarios. Theyve done the scenarios i think theyre not going to come out and tell you, hey, were explicitly reacting to trade. Its been a factor in every meeting. They discuss that theres headwinds and theyre considering them, just like there were brexit headwinds and from fiscal stimulus we saw announced last year. Thats part of the reason they were raising rates all of these go into the fed reaction function. And i think the chair powell is specifically trying to get away from this idea that if the administration does x, the fed will do y in terms of fiscal policy or trade policy because it just becomes too political and then the fed gets itself into a bind i think we want to keep it at a higher level they do it in the background they wont talk about it so explicitly. Michelle, what did you make of the way in which the fed chair addressed two or three questions he got, which is to say if today and this years policy was the correct decision, does that mean your policy last year was wrong i thought that was an interesting discussion because powell did push back against this idea that that policy was too restrictive. He said the time policy looked correct. The facts have changed the outlook has changed and thats the reason they adjusted policy i think it might be more than that they realized at the end of last year maybe they went too far in terms of Balance Sheet reduction, went a little too far in terms of rate hikes and had to pull it back a little bit part of their pivot early in the year was, yes, fundamentals were shifting, but the markets shifted really quickly part of the reason the markets shifted had to do with Monetary Policy potentially being too tight. He didnt acknowledge that he adamantly suggested otherwise, which i thought was interesting that he defended their policies to that extent. The fed didnt want that 20 decline last year. No. Take direct responsibility for t. Understandably. Steve i mean, i understand what the chairman was saying. And i remember at the time covering that time period where it was 3 growth, 1. 5 trillion of stimulus. It would have been probably not good Monetary Policy at the time not to react with a rate hike in that context it seemed like the right way to go for the mccauleys and zervoses of the world, when the fed started the hike back in 1999 was perhaps not as different as what the chairman suggested it to be. It was still in the low twos, same place whats different now, guys, is the political atmosphere, both in the markets and in washington, which is that nobody out there is the fed for being too low. Support of democrats and republicans and theres nobody in the bond market thats saying mr. Chairman, you better protect me from inflation. In actual numbers, the inflation level was not a whole lot different than when the fed started taking back insurance hikes in 98. Paul, thats where you were focused. Everything he had to say about inflation and what powell was looking for, Going Forward. Yeah. Its profound how much the fed has changed. And accepting and embracing the victory over inflation i thought it was appropriate he gave a very loud and kind comment about paul volker, who started the war against inflation. We won that war a long time ago. I think steve was right on the data on that the fed is declaring victory we won the war effectively, mr. Powell saying its time for a peace dividend paid to labor. He really wants labor to get its fair share of the economic pie and hes ecstatic that theres more slack than he thought in the economy, say, two years ago. From the standpoint of making mistakes, sure, i thought there was less slack than there is thats a wonderful mistake i found more slack he is a principled pocketist. It is Pretty Amazing were still finding workers in this labor force and sitting at these 50year lows for unemployment. Paul mccauley, michelle meyer, steve zervos and Steve Liesman. 22 minutes left at the session at the moment, 13 points up on the dow. Pretty close to the highs of the session, about 0. 3 for s p 500. Last chance trade. Josh looking at one name down 40 year to date. Former fed president and former fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin will join us with their take on todays fed decision here is a check on the bonds following the fed decision tenyear sitting right around 1. 7 here. Closing bell will be back right after this thats what happens in golf nothiand in life. Ily. Im very fortunate i can lean on people, and that for me is what teamwork is all about. You cant do everything yourself. You need someone to guide you and help you make those tough decisions, thats Morgan Stanley. Theyre industry leaders, but the most important thing is they want to do it the right way. Im really excited to be part of the Morgan Stanley team. Im justin rose. We are Morgan Stanley. Dont get mad. Get e trade, dawg. Major averages, highlighting some of the big movers on the day, close eye on fed sensitive areas. Quarterly results after the bell make row stories and individual microstories. Up more than 90 year to date people expect big things out of this report. Any sign of weakness, pulling back in these growth areas could be an opportunity to sell. The well find out more after the bell. Definitely a tough setup. 17 minutes left to go josh, what is your last chance trade going into bells on a very special last chance trade i would like to talk about macys this is the worst performing stock in the s p 500 for 2019. It is a really unique and interesting setup here this is a stock that essentially has been finding support between 1440, 1460 all year long thats exactly where i would place my stop or just below. And then as far as a long opportunity, you have a gap up there at 19. Youre risking 9 to make 21 . Bed, bath and beyond, they were saying all the things about that stock that they now say about macys no way to win. Completely screwed company sometimes when you have a stock as despised as macys is right now, you dont need anything great to happen. You just need the bad news to stop capex or get rid of excess invento inventory. This company has no business of paying a dividend, anything like that they should reduce it, focus on how to modernize the app, website the way best buy has done it. Macys has to figure out what they have figured out and they can. You take very little risk here use your stop loss nice risk reward and i would put that trade on if i were inclined to look for a really hardhit name. Good one to watch. Just higher on the dow. Up next, uninterrupted coverage of the final minutes of trade. Taking you inside the market zone when csi bllongel returns. Its human nature to hate problems. But why is that . Problems inspire us to rewrite the rule books. The history books and future books. Thats why so many people work with ibm on everything from city traffic to ocean plastic. 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But youre not mad because you have e trade which isnt complicated. Their tools make trading quicker and simpler so you can take on the markets with confidence. Dont get mad get e trade and start Trading Commission free today. We are now in the closing bell market zone, commercialfree coverage going into the close. Cnbc commentator mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and josh brown from ritholtz Wealth Management. Stocks are higher, but marginally so for the major averages, dow is only higher by about one point here s p 500 is hanging on to. 2 dollar weekend overall, though, is largely expected, would you say . Dovish, maybe that explains longterm yields the stock market has gained traction if you didnt have this trade quasi deadline, you may see it running to the upside a little bit. Based on how youre seeing more stocks up than down. Just a fraction below the alltime highs at the moment. Head of the faa spoke out about boeing 737 max today. Were here on capitol hill, hearing focused on the faa and 737 max, congress grilling the faa about the process. We talked to steve dixon he said this is an airplane that wont be recertified this year. Its going to extend into 2020. Do you expect itby the end of january or end of february . What would you say is realistic . Its impossible to say, phil. If i had that kind of crystal ball, i would certainly be able to share it. Take a look at shares of boeing we reached out to boeing and said, is it still your guidance that this plane will be recertified this year . They said weve not changed our guidance thats the latest when it comes to the max. Thanks for that josh, your take on boeing, how will they get this thing wrong for the guidance it could be certified again when clearly its not i dont have an informed view but want to make a bigger point. Absent intervention by the regulators, this plane could have had a crash like this every two to three years were in a moment politically where were literally chainsawing the rule books in every industry, this is the end result, unfortunately. You want to create more jobs, get off the back of the Business Owner or people too easily can get around regulation. We ought to be careful how deeply we want to cut oversight. Sometimes this can be the end result. Hopefully theyll be careful with this final decision. Of course forecasting 2020 sales growth at 3 1 2 to 4 , the reason it said is its one depot strategy had yet to bring in as much revenue as it expected it would. Home depot also pointed out that theft is the reason its operating profit would be lower this year. Its been hitting home depot and others investor confidence, the first time it was dug into as having a Material Impact and, you know, mike, when you look at shares of home depot, theyre down 2 , but up 23 year to date. Lowes, however, is outperforming that. For sure. Seems like the market is determined this tremendous premium, unsailable trends in all the rest of it it was at a time earlier this year when everyone was buying the buy back giants. That probably explains most of the back and forth. Apple hitting all gnu alltime high levels today in todays trade. Two wall street firms. Hey, josh. Wilf, apple will return to growth they see upside to the streets, critical december quarter. For 2020, the analysts see Revenue Growth around 6 , strength in wearables and services offset flat to declining revenue and other products new price target 305. Apple shares will benefit from 5g adoption and attractively priced wearables portfolio Revenue Growth in Single Digits is reasonable. These firms not alone. 60 of analysts now rate apple a buy. Back to you. Thanks so much for that we just hit session highs in the last minute or so. Can you throw in semis here real quick very important smh. Semis have been regarded as the new transports a chip or multiple chips in it the market is voting that things will be okay when you see Something Like this. Its not just one big component driving it its the full spectrum of chips. Mike, the market is saying its more than going to be okay. The risk now is that weve gone ahead. Semis, apple, everything. Certainly that will become the risk at some level maybe its this one. Maybe its higher. Whats really going on, right now the contentious target is below where theyre trading. Find a rationale to upgrade the price target you see people getting way bulled up on apple, i still dont think that the sell side is all in on apple thats not high for the most company in the world. To what extent, mike, have all the overall market strategists have to do the same next year . Its happening only grudgingly, i think. A few up targets right now. Weve got three minutes left of trade on the s p, youve been looking at the internals. Up and down stocks, its been solidly higher all day not a traumatic move on the index level. Take a note of gold prices after the fed, dollar did come down. Gold is up. 75 . That peak of 15. 60 in early september, that was at the height of the recession scare. Normally after you get the press conference, a lot more volatility bleeds out of the market this time the event risk comes sunday a lot of sort of stay long stocks, thats where its puffing out the vicks. Maybe it could be friday. You dont know for sure. Exactly by sunday presumably. Major averages with two minutes left of trade. Lets get a check in on bonds, rick santelli. Wilf, on october 30th, cycle low, rates moved up after that no ease this time. Weve certainly slipped. Twoyear note. The whole curve is falling new yield closes for the week. Tenyear, 179, twos down four, finally the dollar index, open the chart up lowest close since the 18th of july bertha, the nasdaq will close above yesterdays highs. We are. That is fueled with chips up an alltime high, as l and sirus at alltime highs. Lulu lemon, fourth best gainer in the nasdaq, continuing to hit alltime highs big ipo at the nasdaq, sp, finn tech firm from brazil. Nice pop h 179th ipo for the nasdaq which has beaten the nyc both on the number of ipos and amount of money raised on those deals. Over to bob. The important thing here, 31 points on the move on the fed. S p 500, less than a point way and a lot of sectors, health care, Consumer Staples people seem to be thinking much more optimistically about things like free port finally good day for home builder new high for it there for that particular stock we are closing essentially right near the highs of the day, dow up 31 points, s p 500 up 10 points welcome to the closing bell. Lets check in as the markets close at the session highs up 0. 3 for the dow, s p, nasdaq up. 5 into the close as you can see there 0. 3 high. Earnings from retailer lulu lemon. Well bring you those numbers as soon as they cross shares higher into the close joining us to talk about the market day, josh brown is still with us. And Lizann Sonders joins us at Charles Schwab mike, here we go, ending the day higher after largely expected fed conference like you mentioned previously, a very big uncertainty factor hanging out there still. One thing dough tracting from it right now credit markets love it firm base for market valuations because of that. Historically, the last 25 years when the fed does not change on a meeting, does not change rates, bullish for the month, that means conditions are pretty goo good. Could change the equation for the short term, tactical picture, of course, the overall on one. If the fed doesnt change rates throughout 2020 where do you stand on the forecast for the end of next year if the economic environment justifies that, we stay in the steady growth thats not a bad thing. Mike talked about how the market has done a month after the fed announces a pause or doesnt do anything is the best of the other two scenarios included if you look at three rate cuts in the past when weve gotten there, the further the fed goes from the third rate cut if they continue to cut its usually because were entering into or theyre trying to combat a recession. A fed that stands pat suggests thats not bad for the market. What do you make of where were sitting going into year end after that scare at the end of december last year . Any chance we see Something Like that again still possible but the winners were those who didnt notice it. They did okay. Liz ann, im curious what your thoughts are about the dollar. This uptrend its been in, really, all year long now it appears to be at the lower end of that trend channel. Is there something important to consider if, in fact, the dollar technically breaks down . If it were to break down, looking ahead particularly for exporters, i think that would be a benefit for s p earnings there are other uncertainties that put an Analyst Community in a state of uncertainty, not the least being a might add clarity for the export Oriented Companies but doesnt necessarily solve the uncertainty with regard to the nearterm trajectory for tariff tariffs. Federal reserve leaving rates unchanged. Press conference fed chairman Jerome Powell weighing in on policy amid trade uncertainty. We try to look through the volatile i volatility in in trade news. Monetary policy is not the right tool to react in the very short term to volatility and things that can change back and forth and back and forth, as has happene happened. What do you think the Market Reaction will be if we get a true resolution of this trade deal even if its just phase one . I think phase one could not be defined as a true resolution. I think powell has been rate to stress that theres only so much Monetary Policy can do for that. The one message he has put out there at least the last year its important for the fed to differentiate between Financial System stability and Financial Market volatility and theyre not going to move levers purely on the latter, purely on market volatility with knee jerk, but also supporting the notion that the fed can only do so much to support an economy thats plagued on the manufacturer side on uncertainty associated with trade. The fed cant do anything about tha that. Josh, if the fed stays on hold all through next year like currently predicted, what do you focus on for 2020, back by earnings one of the more yeah so to answer your question, Interest Rates and earnings over everything else. One of the things is the strength in emerging markets, not just share prices but earnings expectations even if theyre too high, will still get more Earnings Growth nechlt m than youll get in the United States i cant remember the last time youve been able to say that with a straight face probably the cheapest way for emerging markets, looking really interesting on a oneyear and threeyear timeframe lows are higher lows and buyers are coming in exactly where they should i think it could be a sleeper hit for next year. Its been so long since it has had an out performance that would be an interesting surprise. Earlier today, i spoke with brian moynihan, chairman and ceo of bank of america about the way tech is supposedly threatening his usiness, he outlined how with a big scale is a big bonus for bank of america. Mainstream competitor, we study everybody. Get scale out of our investments. 29 million mobile customers. The ability to get the ability to have the natural brand. Have a natural franchise first started, now you can have that our ability to go in a place like denver, which we did four, five years ago, get to number eight position, with an average branch size is because our National Brand leads us. Competitors have to think about that we are growing organically at a faster rate in terms of activity than weve rfr grown at this particular time. Having a company that had to go through the early part of my tenure, early part of the decade and restructure it. The stock up today. Comes off the back of encouraging comments, consumer, outlook on trade four, the markets come into this already, jp morgan in particular are trading at premiums relative to their own history on their earnings multiple. Does tech hurt or aid them moynihan, very much hes a believer that it helps and doesnt hinder. Very difficult to dispute that its hard to dislodge and spending power on technology i wonder if the affect would be more that Technology Changes the pricing and sort of attacks, in general, injury margins as opposed to grabbing huge chunks of market share. I dont know the difference right now in terms of determination on the stock. Thats definitely a question. Interestingly on the broker price where we see an example of that, robinhood comes in, leads to a price war sharls schwab, ie the big player, but go through price pressure in the process . I dont understandthis price war debate we cut prices for trades to dear zero in 20052006, whatever date it was he said. For client. Certain clients exactly. The longterm winner is the bigger player. Something interesting happens when Technology Comes in and disrupts an industry for first two or three years, you assume the incumbents are dead because the other companies are moving so fast. We doubled we tripled but then the incumbent figures out the same game and to michaels point theyve got the scale, the resources they eventually get it right and in banking youll see these guys play offense now and use the power to do it. Are you still long on any of the banks . Long for jpm for years. Bank of america is interesting, 54 over the last three years. Almost all of it has occurred in the last eight months. Theyre not getting any credit for all the great things that moynihan is talking about. The market is not saying yeah, you guys are killing it. Maybe that happens but that has really not arrived from bank of america just yet. Ten years at the helm as ceo of bank of america meg tirrell. Bead top of the line, revenue at 916 million compared with analysts estimate at 903 stock is down more perhaps on a slightly late Fourth Quarter guidance, revenue up to 1. 33 billion, the street looking for up to 1. 385 billion. 2. 10 to 2. 13, the street is looking for 2. 08 to 2. 23 but a beat for the quarter comparable sales beating at 16 compared with about 14 the street was looking for pretty good quarter. Clearly High Expectations for lulu lemon you are seeing the stock down a bit. Very High Expectations, meg thank you very much. Comparable store sales increased 10 , store sales. Yeah. That is really, really strong t does seem like shares are reacting here. Definitely reacting the position was very tough. Stock was up a ton roughly on target guidance is maybe not enough to get it moving immediately doesnt cut too much in the recent gains well see where it settles out its not too much in the numbers that changes the story whatsoeve whatsoever. 50 times earnings for sweat pants. Its a 30 billion company, five times the size of gap. If youre not happy with what the stock has done because its all 4 today after doubling, i dont know what to tell you. Your expectations may have been high the stock has had ab amazing run. Is it possible that investors are taking opportunity to make money off the table . Sure. Go look back at post earnings reactions of the stock the past two years. Youve seen one or the other youve seen it fall off and then recover when people said what else am i buying in this space oh, thats right, absolutely nothing. Except maybe macys, your last chance trade. Sure. No competition between those two. Im just teasing. Thank you, josh brown and Lizann Sonders for joining us on the closing bell market zone. Former minneapolis fed president Naryana Kocherlakota and former fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin join us do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging . Prevagen is the number one pharmacistrecommended memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. But with opportunity comes risk. And to manage this risk, the world turns to cme group. We help farmers lock in future prices, banks manage Interest Rate changes and airlines hedge fuel costs. All so they can manage their risks and move forward. Its simply a matter of following the signs. They all lead here. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back the fed leaving rates unchanged. Rates fourth time in a year. Raising concerns about the economy and market fast forward 12 months, chair powell has cut rates three times. What will the next 12 months bring . Former minneapolis fed president narayana kocherlakot aa and former fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin its clear from the fed chair that the hurdle to hike is infin italy higher than to cut. Right thats exactly the read. I think thats what fed chair put out in the conference as well indicators are still coming in, will continue to come in next year and i think there will be some storm clouds, in particular manufacturering, something that is not looking good. We saw u. S. Manufacturers for the first time are not going to be spending more next year this hasnt happened since 2009. Manufacturinging is still down i dont think the storm clouds have dissipated. From the standpoint of the economy, Monetary Policy is not the only game in town. The role that fiscal policy is going to play to deal with some of the longer term structural issue issues is something theyll have to keep an eye on. If we continue to see the divergence widen between the factors that are strong like the consumer and those that are weak like manufacturing and business investment, can we continue to see growth at the same level or will that naturally start to fall great question. These are the questions the fed will have to watch no rate case is the base case. But well have to be watching do we have enough eternal strength in the economy to outweigh the Global Factors that are weighing on manufacture iing i myself wod bet on that to happen in 2020. Thats exactly what the fed has to be watching as we head into next year. Sarah, do you feel like the temporary truce that we had between the fed and the president will continue or the fact that we didnt see a cut today will lead to the reescalation of that i dont know that todays actions will lead to a reescalation but i think that kind of bullying behavior will reemerge for sure if you look at the pattern of it, it pretty much emerges when the markets do something that the president doesnt like particular will when the markets go down. Will he want to blame the fed. I have no reason to think that that technique is coming to an end. From some peoples perspective its been actually kind of effective. The president has actually gotten what he has wanted from the fed with the exception of negative Interest Rates. It has, in some sense, worked. From the institutional perspective of fed independence, i would say its been really bad. Narayana, fed chair powell was focused on inflation and his concerns for the future. What are your thoughts about where we are and where were headed for these key metrics yeah, courtney, thats a concern i have had for five years and continue to have inflation remains well below not well below but it has been below target since about 11 years, since the dark days of 2008 what puzzles me about the fed is youll hear words about were committed to our target, were committed to symmetry around our target if youre truly xhted to it and inflation continues to run below target in your forecast, if youre not worried about inflation, and i think chair powell was clear in the press conference, he would welcome above 2 inflation if thats the case, why not ease policy still further i have been puzzled five years i suspect ill remain puzzled in the coming year. Narayana, a question was posed to the fed chair why do you think that would allow the fed to meet its inflation target or accelerate the rise in prices since it didnt happen at the zero lower, and the economy is producing roughly the same amount of inflation now and even when the fed fund is up around 2 as when it was near zero. I think that the impact i think chair powell answered this, addressed this issue in the press conference the impact of slack on inflation is quite muted it is, nonetheless, there. I agree with the statements he made along those lines what that means is that you have to be willing to bring unemployment well below what you believe is a natural rate in order to have a sizeable impact on inflation i personally think were at half the rate of natural unemployment at that point you have to do more in labor markets to stimulate wage growth. That will start to spill into inflation. The point is the impact is muted. We started to see wage growth. We will see inflation. The story that that tells where boy we dont know where inflation is, lets raise rates, just doesnt hang together. Thank you for joining us. Thanks. Next, breaking down the latest data to see if retail rates are poised for a surge. We will speak with Alexis Ohanian, reddits former ceo so what are you working on . Im searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like im just wasting time. Wasted time is wasted opportunity. Exactly. Thats why Td Ameritrade designed a firstofitskind, personalized education center. See, you just oh, this is easy. Yeah, and thats oh, just what i need. Courses on options trading, webcasts, tutorials. Yeah. Their awardwinning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. And it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. So its like my streaming service. Well exactly. Well except now, youre binge learning. Oh, i like that. Thank you, i just came up with that. Youre funny. Learn fast with the Td Ameritrade education center. Call 8662967451 or visit tdameritrade. Com learn. Get started today, and for a limited time, get up to 800 when you open and fund an account. Thats 8662967451, or tdameritrade. Com learn. I made it very clear were working closely together but were going to keep our heads down, support the team. This was an with welcome back to closing bell. Bank of americas proxy for Holiday Retail sales, the estimate for the current year. It is above the decade average, i guess around 4 . Theyre looking for Something Like a 5 top line economy wide holiday sales, obviously, better than average, but not quite as good potentially as back in 2017 take a look at the performance over several different stock retail measures. Taking it as a premise that the consumer is in pretty good shape, retail sales are strong Retail Sector fund is market cap weighted its 30 amazon and home depot and both of those stocks have been struggling a little bit lately you see its performing roughly in line with the s p 500 i put amazon in there as well. Up 16 year to date. Its been, really, though, conspicuous in its underperformance lately. Looking at this as a psychological proxy. By the way, the fact that the s p and nasdaq has been basically at highs without amazon helping out at all probably tells you something, too. Maybe thats not really a tell on the consumer or retail but sentiment at the overall business at amazon. Thank you for that. Continental resources. On a year when weve learned its been a record year for ceo exits, this is another one harold hamm, high profile outspoken founder and ceo of continental, as the company puts it, stepping up. Hes not stepping down will he become the executive chairman come jan 1, replaced by william barry. Continental has been on the forefront of leading the latest oil boom in this country, which has led to tremendous production in this country and making us oil independent. Harold hamm is usuallythe guy we want to talk to stepping up from the position of ceo and becoming executive chairman of Continental Resources january 1st. Back to you guys. Thanks so much for that. Up next, reddit cofounder Alexis Ohanian will tell us what he sees in the market in 2020. Bob iger, businessperson of the year thanks in part to baby yoda details on closing bell. We changed it up earlier. That is something we are able to do on this brilliant big board. Energy the weakest. No, real estate the weakest sector time now for cnbc sales update with sue herera. Reaching a tentative 25 million agreement with dozens of his alleged Sexual Misconduct victims of weinstein it would not require him to admit wrongdoing or pay anything to his accusers himself. Michael horowitz testifying before the Senate Judicial committee, telling them while there were errors by the fbi there was no bias in the agencys russia probe. We found and as we outline here are deeply concerned that so many basic and fundamental errors were made by three separate handpicked investigative teams on one of the most sensitive fbi investigations after the matter had been brief bid the highest levels within the fbi. All major baseball leagues will expand protective netting in stadiums starting with the 2020 season. Manfred telling cnbc that the change comes after several highprofile incidents of small children being struck by foul balls. Thats the news update back downtown to you. Earlier today i was at the Goldman Sachs Financial Service kvens. Here is what he had to say about private market valuations. Its hard to say that private market valuations arent high, but i point out theyre high pretty much across all asset classes, you name it when you have Central Bank Policy thats been fairly accommodative, youll see reflation like youve seen everywhere. Joining us now with his thoughts, Alexis Ohanian, reddit cofounder great to see you thank you so much for joining us. Glad to be on thank you for having me. He has a point. You cant really deny that theres a premium there but there is an underlying truth here every industry is being affected by software in a very meaningful and disruptive way. Companies are putting off that market value publication. Whats the view towards the way we work came about is there a sense in Silicon Valley that everyone is annoyed with him, angered with him that they ruined the party that everyone in Silicon Valley was enjoying or on the flip side do you think you cant blame a founder for taking as much money and good valuation that they can get their hands on during that process . Definitely you can blame a founder. I spend little time in the valley as possible because theres so many Great Companies being started all over the country. Yes, i think a lot of companies have now had to think a will the more seriously about things like margin, which seems obvious. A lot of companies out there have been deluded, 10x on revenue for not very software heavy businesses i think thats a good come to jesus for founders who have been trying to eye ball what adam in the short term at least has been able to accomplish we work still represents a small part of all of soft banks oefall investments and broadly its still in the grand scheme of things, is a small but person cautionary tale. A lot going on in the world of real estate largest coworking space provider and china youre also involved in a Company Called zeus that deals more with real estate for business professionals that are traveling but is residential whats the market for that why is that an opportunity airbnb led a strong series we were excited to be one of their first investors. The modern professional is far more flexible in their travel needs, spending much more time on the road, sort of on their terms. The offering of having fully furnished high quality, longterm house rentals thats over 30 days is zeus sweet spot do it really well and then expan expand. Alexis ohanian, thank you for joining us on the closing bell well have you back again real soon. Should point out comcast is an investor in zeus. Thats right. Lululemon shares are lower despite an earnings beat after the bell is this an opportunity to buy on the p diafter these shares have had quite a run . Well dig through it when closing bell comes right back. At Southern New Hampshire university, we believe in education built for all people. [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. [man] without snhu, i wouldnt be the leader i am today. [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. I still finished. [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. Thats what snhu is. You will march from this arena and say to the world. I did it. [woman] you did it. I love you. [graduate] i love you too. Nice rock. Its time to drop gold. Go digital. Go grayscale. Lulu lemon earnings, the stock slipping 4 . The setup coming into this is a little tough joining us now to break it down, chief Research Officer dana telsey what do you put that down to overall the stock is up over 20 since they reported last quarter. This is the best, best numbers weve seen from any of the retailers. 210 to 213 when consensus was 213. Everyone always wants to beat the best lulu needs to manage this carefully. You do want to keep beating. The fact they gave up same store sales when the consensus is basically up 11. 9 , certainly looks like the setup is quite solid also those comps upload double digits is impressive. Look at this Third Quarter gross margin at 55. 1 , better than consensus of 54. 6 and up 24 in dollars. Dana, we know that lulu lemon tends to guide a bit conservative is it just an opportunity to buy on some weakness here because shares are up, what, 90 year to date exactly i think its an opportunity to buy. Whether its international, mens, other categories theyre involving and continued productivity of their stores and we heard about active over the years. Its competitive its competitive you bet it is. When someone is differentiating and innovating, when a company is gaining customers like theyre gaining customers and doing it through higher profitability and margin Network Higher margin metric s, thats encouraging. I think it is a buying opportunity. So many analyst put lulu lemon as an early holiday winner it will be interesting to see how they think thats going on the call thank you for joining us. Thank you. Disney aplus performance. New numbers out for disneys first month in the world of streaming. The numbers are pretty starting. Speaking of disney, bob iger being named times businessperson of the year baby yoda is drinking in all the atto se. Right by hisid th sry, coming up next theres a lot of talk about value out there. But at fidelity, value is more than just talk. We offer commissionfree online u. S. Stock and etf trades. And, when you open a new Fidelity Brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate thats 21 times more than schwabs. Plus, fidelitys leading price improvement on trades saved investors hundreds of millions of dollars last year. Thats why fidelity continues to lead the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. Talk fidelity. Welcome back its been just under a month since disney launched its streaming service, disney plus how popular has it been . No official word from disney since its first day downloads, but today were getting some news, Julia Boorstin in los angeles with those details hi, julia. Hi, courtney. First four weeks, downloaded 22 million times to mobile devices according to atopia with 9. 5 million daily active users, not including smart tvs or streaming devices like apple tv. We dont know what percentage of those numbers are using free trials now, engagement is strong. Aptopia reporting nearly 8 longer than Amazon Prime Video downloads are increasing thanks to the fact that those apps are both bundled with disney plus at a discounted price and apptopia tells us theres no indication of any negative impact of disney plus on its rival apps such as hbo as well as now netflix and Amazon Prime Video back to you. Julia, thank you very much for that and even more good news for disney ceo bob iger, Time Magazine crowning him as businessperson of the year, putting baby yoda in his portrait not since somebody figured out you could attach two plastic black pieces to a head since mickey mouse interestingly, guys, in the article that particular point stood out to me as well. Iger talked about it in the interview. Obviously this was initiated last year as opposed to completing and being execute this had year. Sure. When you look at the achievements that fall into 2019, you can really understand why theyve gone for iger. For sure. Definitely is a culmination. Go back multiple years, igers tenure when he first bought pixar and marvel and lucas each of those deals was criticized of being too expensive and that they wouldnt get a payback on it. Thats been disproven. You could have legitimately criticized iger for being slow to release the company from the cable bundle and trying to explain away espns numbers. When they did shift in a very aggressive way, low price point, throwing all their content, very aggressive about it. By the way, made a Technology Acquisition of bam tech to enable all of it i think you can say he has been rewarded for a longer term vision. And i think you called this out, mike, in an article you wrote how many years ago early 2008. I didnt see most of this coming, but the stock was at 32. Believe it or not, the country was in a recession there was a different beloved disney figure posing with mr. Iger. Hannah montana. Height of hannah montana. You were 32, too. I was a bit older he was upset about the theme parks, thinking it was going to be this high vacancy rates right now people pay for theme parks, operate at amazing profitability. Sometimes you get lucky. Or very thoughtful and predicted, mike. Could a trade truce impact ceo confidence in a big way . Lerae ill head to th testtor as you just saw a prediction that will come true back in a couple of minutes. Two stories on jp morgan i wanted to draw attention first the New York Times publishing an investigation into charges of racism at a jp Morgan Branch in arizona where one of the banks africanamerican clients was allegedly told he wouldnt be offered Certain Services because of his race the employee who told him that no longer works at the company and a jp morgan spokesperson said the claims about the issues in the branchy difficult and serious to read. There was extraordinarily bad judgment used all around this is notflective of the culture at the company that champions opportunities diversity and treating everyone with respect but even one employee can hurt this culture and we must call it out when we see it i would add the theme coming across was that they were were very, very uncomfortable when they heard of it and only heard of it in the last five days and the story was published this morning pan investigations go on to see if it stops. The second story the company firmed the new Wealth Management unit combining the u. S. Wealth management net weather clients and advisory business. The clear attempt to compete with more directly with the likes of Morgan Stanley and bank of america merril lynch. She reported previously to gordon smith who isthe head of chase. The memo that went out announcing this was cowritten by both gordon smith and mary eto, the head of management a cross roll the the her sister put pout a tweet which i thought wassism amusing saying congratulations to his sister. Great move by jp morgan tongue in cheek to be clear clients should invest with Goldman Sachs instead. That power set of siblings continuing and friendly rivalry. I like that thats nice. Over to mike santoli he has the final chafrt day for us. Mike, what do you got. Court, all day cale ray tausche has been talking about the business round table Business Optimism index declining. Highlighted with the chart here. Two measures of Business Confidence in blue to it Conference Board ceo Confidence Index thats mostly Large Company ceos in orange the yesterday we got the number for the nfib small Business Optimism. As you can see its unusual to have this much of a gap. When you do have a gap to have Small Businesses more optimistic than large, mall businesses sometimes bear the brunt of weak times in the economy clearly trade is an overarching issue more applicable to what Big Companies are dealing with than small renaissance macrowhich put it together suggests any clarity op trade could have the gap narrow a bit. Probably by Large Company confidence rising. I would also say nfib is also very kind of policy oriented its a lobbying group. Very, very Small Businesses not even russell 2000. Very mom and pop. Its not what gdp is doing but nonetheless you would have some cleerps for Large Company confidence to increase with clarity on trade. Thats a theme we will follow and brought up here multiple times. Up next the key things every investor needs to watch heading to the new trading day that when closing bell comes right back 20 years. 20 years. No two patients are the same. Predicting the next step for them can be challenging. Today were using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patients recovery. Ultimately, its helping thousands of patients return home. And who doesnt love going home. We believe in education built for all people. , [woman] snhu was the best experience of my life. [man] without snhu, i wouldnt be the leader i am today. [woman] i graduated high school 19 years ago. I still finished. [man] in the military, you feel that sense of accomplishment. Thats what snhu is. You will march from this arena and say to the world. I did it. [woman] you did it. I love you. [graduate] i love you too. Looking ahead to tomorrow. Key read on Consumer Sentiment when costco reports earnings court is having a look at that prevow for us. We actually have a nice preview because costco reports tomorrow but unlike other retailers the updates provide good insight into the quarter momentum as its happening Quarter Sales up 4. 3 pop or 5 if you strip out gas and foreexchange impacts the quarter wont include black friday or cyber monday the Quarter Ended before the days ended they did say the website outages on a thanksgiving day and black friday impacted online sales to a lesser extent than the kashld shift all in all Deutsche Bank sidelined to a full valuation shares up 45ed year to date as well as intensifying competitive back drop for the names competing against costco. Always expensive stock pretty much it does have pullbacks but its considered the quality favorite in there now you know beyond meat, who knows if that moves. S voting taking place tomorrow in the uk general election the exit poll comes right at the end of the show tomorrow voting closes tomorrow at 10 00 p. M. Eastern 5 00 p. M. Eastern time no direct impacts of course on u. S. Markets but could create volatility over the next couple of days for International Markets and the pound and impact op the dollar as well. Well watch that mike, broader markets, we did get a nice little lift off the back of the fed press conference, closing session highs. Only 0. 3 higher but positive momentum. It seems like positive measurement momentum it seems the market wants to gain traction at least retesting the highs less than half a point on the s p. Again we are kind of i think held steady and static by the trade deadline coming out but see if the market wants to front run that. Thank for watching closing bell. Fast money begins right now. And we do live from the market site over looking the world famous New York Times square this is fast money. Im Brian Sullivan in for melissa lee and traders on the desk tonight are brian kelly brock tepper Karen Finerman and guy adami process. The man moving markets he says there is a quote extraordinary opportunity in the market right now he is telling you where it is. Straight ahead plus the great divergence why oil stocks go down while prices go up. Could this be the group you must invest in next