Pulled that into this. Treasury, we want treasury to be able to have the cash that it needs and we are essentially taking that to our work. There may come a time when we talk about that. I think we are more focused, frankly, on the bill purchases the year end and review of supervisory and regulatory issues that were digging into and we think these are structural things, right just allow the liquidity that is already there to flow more freely perhaps by making fairly straightforward noncontroversial changes. We think there is some of that if they take role changes, it will take three months and things like that these things that were working on now, like going through year end with the overnight facilities and the bill purchases and the term repo, those are things we have to do right now and are doing. Chris hi. I wanted to ask the only change in the statement was a drop in the reference to uncertainties around the economy you seem very confident or it implies theres a lot of confidence that those uncertainties have gone away what caused you to make that change for the statement what were you looking at if you look at the statement youll notice we called out inflation pressures later in the statement. Why did we do that those are things weve been monitoring all year. Weve put in policies to readdress those things those are key things we thought it was appropriate to mention them there still subject to the idea that for us to change our stance, we would want to see the material reassessment of the outlook. On the material reassessment aspect, are you worried that that set too high of a bar for potential cuts next year we were talking about rate heights but no fed policymaker seems to for see any cuts next year some economists do does the material reassessment mean you need to see data actually worsen . Does it reduce your ability to react preemptively arguably the way you did this year . 75 basis points worth of cuts and we do believe that Monetary Policy operates with long and variable lags and it will take some time before the full effects of those actions are seen in the economy. So that will take some time. Thats one reason to hold back and to wait. We think we took strong measures in fact, if you look at more broadly at the treasury yield curve, it has moved more than 75 basis points youve had quite a significant move in the direction. In terms of what is material at the end of the day, i would say whether or not it merits a policy response, there isnt any single factor that will determine our decisions. Well look at a full range of data and other information bearing on Economic Outlook. Thank you, mr. Chairman you started out talking about mr. Voluker, who cast a long sha o i wonder if that shadow was too long and if the fed was too quick to raise Interest Rates to attack an inflation boogie man that didnt materialize. My response will not be about paul volker. Look back at 2018. We had an economy growing at 3 . We had inflation at 2 and we had 1. 5 trillion, and the federal funds rate was 1. 4 . We never got policy even at the level of what we thought the neutral rate was at the time theres no sense of it being restrictive. We took steps to make it less accommodative. That seemed to be the right thing. In hindsight it still seems to be the right thing the idea we were trying to slow the economy down, we were just trying to get near neutral with the last rate increase a year ago, we were meaningfully below the median estimate. Policy was always accommodative during the course of that year you saw the Global Economic slowdown begin in the middle of last year, just look at the imf forecast of growth from the spring of 2018 and compare them to now i think there will be a very wide range of estimates, meaning effect, to a lesser extent through the tariff effects thats not to make a judgment. Thats not up to us to make a judgment about that. That would be my story. Chair powell, donna borak with cnn can you talk about what you would imagine the economic effect would be if negotiations were with china were to fall apart and how the fed would support the economy in that event . I wouldnt want to speculate on a hypothetical. Well have to see. We look at a range of factors. We try to look through volatility in trade news we try not to react. We cant react mol Monetary Policy is not the tool to in the short term to volatility and things that can change back and forth, back and forth, as is probably typical of a large, complex negotiation again, i dont want to get into hypothetical outcomes if thats all right. You met with the president last month did you have any advice for him when it came to this did you express some concerns about potential volatility and the impact given all of this im going to stick with my predecessors longtime practice of not discussing private meetings with elected or other officials really but thank you. Thank you yesterday Democratic Leaders in the house have launched an impeachment process against the president. Have you mentioned these developments within the committee as potentially presenting some risks for the confidence in the economy . No, we have not we dont consider things like tha that. Does the feds dob plot still serve useful communications purpose or do you feel it might be time to retire or change it in some fashion . I think properly understood, it can be useful, but thats been a challenge i think properly understood, to me, means looking at what it is and not at what it isnt what it is, its an expression of the thinking about individual committee members, about appropriate Monetary Policy and the path of the economy. Remember we write all that down and send it in, and it gets compiled but we dont discuss it at the meeting or negotiate a play. There is no agreement, no plan i think particularly at inflection points, its hard to convey the reality, which is that policy is always going to depend on the Economic Outlook and changes in the Economic Outlook. When the Economic Outlook is changing, the dots are just not a consideration. Were going to do what we think is the right thing for the economy. Dot weiss did six months or three months ago dont agree with that, thats not even in the conversation its more it can be useful. And i think but as i said its been a challenge. So i do like to say if you focus too much on the dots, you can miss the broader picture. Greg rapp from market watch chairman powell, many people seem worried that the framework you guys are working on is going to be the results are going to be less rather than more. People keep coming back and saying why, asking why you took off like a 4 inflation rate off the table even when it started as you said, going around the country for all the listen events, i dont think i heard anybody worry about a 4 inflation rate or think that higher inflation rate would be a problem. Where does that concern come from is it members of congress that have said this no. So let me say, weve been working on this all year were just at the stage where weve had a really interesting discussion about the various tools that we have at the october meeting. At this meeting, we talked about the way Monetary Policy affects different groups in the economy. We talked about the fed listens events and some very Interesting Research so were just getting to the stage where were looking at conclusions. You know, what do we take away from all of this many of those things would wind up as changes, if you will, modifications to the statement of longerrun goals and monetary strategy i think that process will take until the middle of the year but we want to approach it very thoroughly, very carefully and in effect that is our framework document i wouldnt prejudge. No one i believe we will be able to reach a successful conclusion and make meaningful improvements i do in terms of 4 i think its premature for people to be saying this isnt going anywhere if you define going anywhere as a 4 inflation target, let me talk about the 4 inflation target ill go back to the point that just saying words is not itself credible i think if you said were raising the inflation target to four, what would be the effect of that . Where is the credibility in that really you havent been able to get it to 2 i think you need to lower your sights a little bit. I also think is 4 you have to ask the question, is that really, you know, price stability . Is that really price stability is that within our legal mandate . I think thats a legal question. So, you know, i think i would like for this review to come out with a set of positive results meaningful improvements. It doesnt mean it has to solve every problem Going Forward. We want to have this be a successful exercise where we meaningfully improve our Monetary Policy framework. These things dont tend to move and alert you. In a way they tend to evolve if we do this then in a few years again and again, things like that, at least were moving in a good direction. I think we will be im confident we will be. Don mi with the l. A. Times. Youve had a busy year as you look back i wonder what things you might have done differently and what lessons you will take into next year. Well, you know, i have to say my total focus is on right now and getting policy right and thinking about next year, you know thinking about what is the economy going to be doing . I like where we are in policy. My policy stance is appropriate, and likely to remain so, as long as the outlook is broadly like this you know, i mean, its too long of a question. I dont know how to get after that theres a lot of learning that comes into from the economy every year and in the way we do our jobs and were always going to be trying to learn lessons. Are there any particular surprises, whether its the economy or markets or financial so, yeah. I didnt obviously, you know, i didnt see, and i dont think anybody saw coming, the challenges we face this had year they were a surprise toward the end of 2018 there was still a sense that the economy was growing at around 3 , and didnt expect to face the challenges, but i think we did face them. And i am pleased that we moved to support the economy in the way that we did. I think our moves will prove appropriate. And i think both the economy and Monetary Policy right now, i think, are in a good place. Nancy. Nancy from marketplace. Why arent we seeing stronger wage gains wages are growing more slowly now than they were toward the beginning of the year. Why is that . Well, wage gains have moved up a bit if you look back three, four years, youll see wages were moving up 2 now you see them moving up more 3, 3. 5 . Why arent they growing higher, at a faster rate its a couple of things. I think there are a range of explanations one would be that productivity has just been low. Wages should go up to cover inflation and productivity productivity has been low. And that is very likely to be holding back wages i also think there are other possible, potential explanations such as globalization can be the idea that you can make manufacturer or even provide services anywhere in the world to anywhere in the world, i think that hangs over the wage setting process. And everywhere pretty much you dont see there isnt the kind of traction in the wage market that even in a tight labor market another thing is, though, that the labor market may not be as tight as we had thought it was and, you know, i think there are many, many possible explanations i will say, though, if you look, for example, at nonsupervisory employees in the labor report, their wages are going up at 3. 7 so you do see and wages are going up the most for people at the lower end of the thats been true the last couple of years, lower end of the wage spectrum you do see wages moving up theyre not moving up at very high rates and again at the end of theday that probably has most to do with productivity. Can i ask a quick followup as far as the market not being as tight as you thought, are you saying theres still more people on the sidelines who could join the labor force . Yes and i would also say that we if you ask people, and we did ask people, what do you think the natural rate of unemployment is people were writing down numbers in the fives and the fours now unemployment has been in the threes for a year and a half and we still see Wage Inflation, as you mentioned, level of Wage Inflation has moved down there may be compositional effects in that number younger workers coming in at lower wages than retiring workers. That shouldnt be have much of an effect. There may be more slack in the economy. Were seeing that. It really showed up to higher participation. For many years, we thought theres a trend, decline in participation. Notwithstanding that, against that trend, prime age participation has been moving up pretty steadily the last two, three years. Its a very positive thing but certainly does provide more labor supply, meaning a less tight labor market. Hi. Hannah lang with american banker thanks for being here today. I want to ask about the Community Reinvestment act since the fdic and occ may potentially join together for a proposal without the fed. Are you concerned this might cause confusion and how would the mechanics work if this proposal is finalized without the fed . We know the cra is a very important law. Were strongly committed to the mission of ensugar that banks provide credit throughout their committees, particularly addressing low to moderate income households. We think its time for modernization. We thought that for some time. We worked very hard to try to get aligned with the occ really on a proposal. My hope is that we can still do that i dont know whether thats possible or not. Well have to say. If we cant, im not sure what the path forward would be. We certainly would not want to create confusion or, you know, tension between the regimes if they do turn out to be slightly different regimes. I hope thats not something we have to face but will if we have to. Brian chung before the july meeting you said to call something hot you would need to see some heat, referring to the labor market. On nancys question, it seems that its pretty well explored already. What would you need to see to call the labor market hot in that case . A change out of the headline number of gains or in the Unemployment Rate . Really, wages so many other measures suggest that the labor market i like to say that the labor market is strong i dont really want to say that its tight someone asked me a question about a hot labor market i dont know that its tight youre not seeing wage increases. Ultimately, it should result in higher wage increases. It does come down to that, you know we look at countless measures of labor market labor utilization. Theres so many its too many to count. The one thats suggesting its a healthy number, sort of 3. 1 average Hourly Earnings number is a decent number 3. 17 is more healthy. Ultimately, though, we would like to see to call it hot, you would want to see heat you would want to see, you know, higher wages thanks. Good afternoon. Welcome to the closing bell, everyone chair powell keeping rates on holiday. S p near the highs of the session, up about a quarter of 1 , yields tenyear at 178, so the market taking todays press conference slightly constructively, slightly dovishly, but i say slightly with emphasis because s p is only slightly higher and tenyields moved to 178 from the open not huge moves in the context of things. A very big lineup of guests are ready to react to todays fed decision theyre going to break down the market for us. Plus former minneapolis fed chair president and former fed governor Sarah Bloom Raskin whether today is the right one for the economy. Josh brown of ritz Wealth Management joins us. If i could sum up his press conference, riveting look at my knuckles. At the edge of my seat theres a character in this novel called found ace he goes to the foreign planet, spends the whole week meeting with everybody and theyre recording every second of him, cameras and mics and go and decipher what it all means it turns out he had all these conversations with top dignitaries and officials and said absolutely nothing. I think thats actually good were back in that realm with our fed chair. Its a throwback in some respects there really isnt anything to say. He addressed the plumbing. We heard about the funding markets, shortterm markets. Great. Not much ado about that lately anyway then they put out the 2020 3. 7. The market is fine with that, perfectly fine dollar is down 0. 4 . Paul mccauley, michelle meyer, head of u. S. Economics, david ze zervos at jeffries good afternoon to you all. Paul, ill start with you. The scope now, the hurdle to see another rate cut or rate hike is incredibly high from where we stand today. Yes, it is. Thats what mr. Powell said last time and with fist on table this time at the same time i think he stressed he did a really great job of this that its asymmetric in that the hurdle for easing would not be terribly high because they really do not want to see the economy weaken from here, but the hurdle for tightening would be exceedingl high because they actually want Inflation Higher he was most explicit he has been since he has been in the job that he wants inflation up, damn it. He sure does. He talked about that repoe market and did a fairly good job of explaining the feds action, what they did. Even if we dont really know the entire reasoning for the moves that we saw there. What did you make of his commentary and whats expected Going Forward for the actions to be continued i think what the fed is trying to do is to be very clear to markets that they have this under control. At least thats what they want to present i think jay powell did that today as well. That said, we wont really know until we get through a certain number of key events, particularly the end of the year maybe the fed doesnt quite have a handle on it, indeed, market watchers will worry. They have the repoe facilities they are expanding their Balance Sheet for technical reasons, adding reserves to the system, talking about pt move toward organic Balance Sheet expansion, something ultimately theyll need to do i think that, you know, he talked around the issue. He didnt get too many specifics. I think that was partly intentional. He also doesnt want to