Employment report for november can we break the recent trend of slowing growth but we start with tesla, a boost after hours after Morgan Stanley prays raised price target on the stock from 440 to eye, sr. 500. 50 higheren than where it ended on the day pb guy what do you make of it. Adam john as i dont know this to be the case but read going now. I think he is saying the bull case, the price target he raises from 450 to 500. But i dont think he is changing the current price target i guess it doesnt matter. The bottom line is this. He says the potential surge and sentiment through the first half of 2020, the 500 is doable. But im not certain they are changing the price target. With that said its a stock you have to trade. Ill say it gwen, the move from basically 275 to 325, 330 in a Straight Line in october i think we have to revisit that. Rarely do you see a stock have a day move like that and not revisit at. You mean trade it rather than. Absolutely. Rather than own it. 100 . And the market moves suggest that im mot saying ive done it correctly by any means but i say this is a stock that doesnt go up in a Straight Line not down in a Straight Line. And i think at this point id rather sell it here than own it here. Well, here is what i say about adam john as and the call on tesla over the years. What i like about the way he handled the stock is he looked at both Balance Sheet issues and the upside and longterm kind of terminal value of the core things a lot of people get excited about tesla. When adam got cautious about 12 months ago and definitely cautious six months ago front and center around the Balance Sheet. He looked at the cap x getting cut. A lot of the places they were reeling back in spending i think he looked at growth dynamics, the Balance Sheet dynamics, looked at the converts out there. A big of the maturities out there. And said these are big issues. He must have more confidence out of the last quarter. As you heard me say many times, one quarter is not enough. Lets do this i have the note in front of me lets make a couple of things clear. Number one this is the bull case to 500. Right which is part of the roll. His base case remains unchanged. 250. With a price target of 250. And thats the point i was trying to make at the top of the show. This is not adam jonas going stratospheric tonight simply saying the bull case may be stronger than i thought. To tie a ribbon about what i was assessing with how adam jonas handled the stock and had him on the show multiple times, the 250 reflects concern on Free Cash Flow and profitability and Balance Sheet issues i think until we get that that as you know has been my call stock is up what 60 some odd in three months. Thats a lot. Its a lot. I think, so he has the blended i think the bear case is actually higher because the extent of the bear case is they are running out of money with the stock here they can raise all kinds of money easily. So youd have to you have to say that bear case is a little bit less. Why do you think they are not. They dont think they need it. Based upon the last quarter maybe they dont thats a quick turn around but thats will thats fair. I think its important to remember its had the massive run off the lows, 50 or Something Like that still unchanged on the year. Sitting in the middle of the massive range over the last 12 months and hasnt made progress. I think thats a big part of the bear story in this thing is over the last four or five years its not really done anything, especially relative to the market here. You know, listen, i look at that note and i say database a great auto analyst he is skeptical of whether or not this is an auto company or not. They cheerily have the disproportionate market in the ev market in north america now he says what does it look like in china . I dont think that if youre incorporating orders, 100 kick starter orders for the cyber truck that might or night not be built in a couple of years, i just dont see how that should factor into the current view on the stock. But what he is doing here is say egg that if im wrong on the base Case Scenario it could be 12 x my target and thats fine. Listen, again to your point, tim. I think he is introducing a lot of important fundamental concepts you how you value the company and where it could go to the upside or downside. And the think frustrating with florida is people look at five years down the road and say its a great story in five years. Thats the criticism good for adam been on tour and in the tesla model. Thats the only way the story works,right . Is you have to look out five years or however long. You sound skeptical. No but im simply saying its the only way you can justify paying up for a stock like this is believing in the longer term story. I know. I think thats. All right because you know. Of course. Right. Based on whats happening today, its ludicrous. Yes. Based on what may happen five years from now is the question yeah. Well and but how appropriate is that . And do analyst treat this stock differently than other stocks . They certainly treat it different than other auto stocks i guess its not an auto company. Thats what we know. If you are an auto analyst looking at gm which is the big one in the coverage, a 50 oh bhl Market Company with 130 stagnant sales and looking at tesla says 60 billiondollar market cap we know they were losing on each car they make and expected to do 25 billion in sales. For it to grow to the values they have to be such a big winner in the next 50 years of automotive everything for it to really to make sense thats i guess the easy one for the bear to say thats not likely. Lets do breaking news. Brian sullivan in vienna following the opec meeting there. We want to get to him with the latest, brian. Yeah, hey, scott, a bit chaotic here the meeting wrapped. Iran left did come back. I said that might happen they leave show frustration then come back. The meeting actually wrapped we dont know if they have a deal president or not. Thats the question but the uuae oil minister left and we are expecting more ministers to lead and we are expecting perhaps the saudi oil minister, the son of the King Abdul Aziz bin salman i can hear the report give me a moment well see who it is. And try to get some more color and perhaps a comment. There is a lot of activity among the reporters who have been here more than 12 hours today waiting for something. They cancelled the press Conference Cancelled the media scrum. Im going to see if we cant do something here hold on. Its okay. Yes. Hold on, guys. I just lost ifb. Open the door here comes the saudi minister now. Lets go this way. Okay. Hold on guys i lost ifb. Stand by he is going to come by you can see the scrum around him. This is abdul aziz bin salman. For cnbc, any comments, sir hold on any comments, sir for cnbc, your excellency. Are we come back . Was there a deal done, sir was there a deal done. He said well he did look at us and said guys we will see you tomorrow i dont know what that means about the deal i know there is the opec plus meeting with russia tomorrow quite chaotic here guys. No word if a deal is done. But the meeting is done. And we will see you back here from the live coverage at opec headquarters tomorrow. We are throwing up slaepg bags and grab brat wurst and call it a night here. We appreciate that very much. Brian sufrlen live on the scene, the opec meeting breaking up you saw the scene there. I dont want to ask him a question in case he cant hear me oil is frozen maybe waiting to find out what the ultimate outcome is going to be tomorrow, not much move today in either wti or brent. No but interesting because you had not only aramco which people feel has given decent support. You have had inventory numbers that have been bullish ipi and eia data the were key. The key is what extent do they extend deep ner 20 but cut to 19. 5 to 19. 6 barrels i think if you look at where supply demand dynamics in the are right now they need to get through the middle part of next year because there is a glut online oil prices are right now are as high as theyve been since the aramco targets were bombed over the summers. Thats impressive into the meeting. We are literally looking at what could be the worst trade of the last decade counting down the final days of this one. For sure. Does anybody think that energy is going to be place to be in 2020. For trades absolutely listen exxon is 66 wsh 6. 50 the low in december we bounced appropriated there recently some people came out said 50 upside next omp slumber ge looks interesting off these levels analysts will upgrade them are they sustainable probably not but for trades slumber ge is up in in the last two weeks. I think you can get more. Obviously a lot of leverage look at the xle 43 is the chevronen a exxon. Xl sechlt a series of lower highs the last six or seven months the nice bounce in the mid50s but you see weakness in oil you have the xle going down led by the integrated and its a washout for a while. Those were great trades some of the drillers off the lows. I know there were other more levered napped names those are trades the chevron and exxon are salesen rallies. Lets say we got a boost in oil. There is a lot of supply waiting to come on i wonder how much of a sustained rally do we see when the supply demand dahm might be off. Its hard to make a bet with any conviction not knowing where growth is going to be next year either were up in the air globally on where were shaking out. Yeah, and i think people we always tried to determine whether its a spli or demand story. I think its really were all saying its a supply story i do think big emp and the midcap and refiners are run more we say it all the time there is less cap x. They are run better thats what gets you the turn. Xle was the final trade last night on a relative value to what i think the s p has done. I think thats about taken a look at something thats way, way oversold. Lets despite the lets get back to the markets despite to the rocky start to the month the next guest says nothing to here and time to put risk on robert from fund saturate is at the plasma to break it down. Scott, i think were at an interesting point in the market. One of the barometers for risk is the call cap x this is the daily chart back to january 2019 its trying to break out of the trading range between call it 1500, 1450 to 150 oh sitting at this range you get the bullbear push and pull weve had the bulls succeeding now the bears are arguing this is where it peaks out. There is an argument but i think the 1580 level is key. I think were not getting a pullback here. Well see how it turns out what you want to focus on is the relative performance versus s p 500 its a clear downtrend through 2019 you have a low back in october a higher low here. It hasnt quite exceeded this point. But when that turns thats an important signal risk is back ob lets talk about ideas bulls and bears in the market. People are bearish for obvious reasons and understandably so. We are bullish. We think the market cycle has longer to go on the upside lets look at ppg, pittsburgh plate and glass. Coming out of the fouryear trading range chart back to 2013, this is the 2015 highs its coming out of the that range. There is the low back in the middle of the year sideways and up. Thats an incredibly bullish chart. Somebody told me a long time ago trade what you see not what you think. This is incredibly bullish out of the twoyear range. Positive indication for cyclicals. Here is the relative strength reversing the five year trend. Its cyclical we like it longterm we want to be involved and then not everybody wants to buy cyclical stocks. Here a growth name alibaba, it had the big bear market in here. Had one leg sup sideways and breaking out for growth managers we like the name and think there is upside appear relative strength trying to turn. For the bears you dont like anything im saying you think the market is negative more toth on the soundside look at pfizer, 3. 8 dividend on it its come back to the 200 week moving average which for me is always the longterm support level. Its an ugly chart but its into a tremendous amount of support i think the downside is limited. You get paid to own it ride out whatever volatility we see in the end of the year beginning of the fir quarter and the relative strength has been crushed. You can do well adding to a portfolio to diversify against the cyclicals and youll be paid out through the end of the year. Rob come on over. We will continue the conversation a lot of people look at the russell if to call it the breckout over the last three months versus the s p saying thats confirmation of a higher move. Have we broken out the high in april, russell 161. Here we are now basically at 161. In my book it takes more to see a breakout you can make an argument were topping out here if we are not you have another 7. 57 to the 174 level quickly on ppg mike mcgary was on mad money last night. S you are talking about the 10 eps growth trading at a 20 multiple thats rich in this environment in my opinion. What about guys take on the russell. He is right lack pipts marginally broken out and sitting on top of the trading range. All the indicators are overbought people talk about the shortterm data stretched the last two to three weeks. The bears have been run over on that but its marking time. Were seeing 1580 op the russell 2000 is a critical level i think it goes higher i think the pattern that we saw through the middle of 2019 where we had the rallies and fails and rallies and fails thats not the pattern to look at the cycle bottomed i think its emerging to the upside i think the market is in a trepding environment shortterm overbought staying overbought for some time. What you just said is something you could attach to commodities and industry names ppg underperformed the s p on a fiveyear basis. Is that a sign that a lot of these trades have bottomed and starting to move. I think so. When you look at a lot of the chairs the one to twoyear sideways bear markets. Many of them caught up to the 2year moving average. And theyre starting to bottom we saw that with caterpillar jp morgan breaking out of tooth youyear trading range incrementally you see the break out. I think its bullish. So you saw the first chart you had is pretty big divergence how wide has it gotten. I dont have a metric for you. But the russell doesnt in fact the russell doesnt lead in the big bull markets it actually lags and a fiveyear rolling basis back in time its not the leadership in the market you get spurts but dont have to lead to be in a bull market. Rob, good having. You thank you. Thanks for being here. Coming up after hours action in zoom video, crowdstrike and ulta beauty. Those Companies Reporting results. Plus president ial candidate Elizabeth Warren proposing a big change to how companies do business more on that ahead, live from times square in new york city. Much more fast money right after this welcome back to fast money. Time for earnings whip around from a couple of recent ipos to a big name in beauty seema modi standing about the latest op beauty and crowdstrike. What a difference a quarter makes. Shares of ulta rallying after a strong Third Quarter last time i checked up about so 9. 6 now process so in august they reported the stock tanked about 30 after diseighting results. The news today providing a bit of relief. Now domestic makeup sales stalled across the industry. But we see skincare. The ceo mary dylan pointing how to capitalize on that. Take a listen. We are taking actions to fully capture the opportunity of skincare ds trends this year we added more than 30 skincare brands to the assortment increasing offerings and increasing focus on skincare is Marketing Campaigns as well as leveraging flex space in stores to highlight growing brands and newness in the category. En at Kylie Cosmetics and cody partner announced weeks ago almost certainly coming up ulta is the exclusive Retail Partner for the brand. We will flag news from that. Rahel we appreciate it. Lets trade it on the desk. A big relief rally. I was looking at the straddle expecting a 8 or 9 move. The pe multiple had gotten crushed. The last three years average of 30 and below 20 going into the print. There was skepticism wasnt a huge giant quarter. But certainly good enough. And i think well see continue to see it rerated back closer to the higher multiple. There is such a tailwind in this space still even guys probably exfoliating after the show tonight if you look at the margin in the space, the competition you look at what ulta has been able to do i like the trend here. Yeah, so i have to respond to that. I cant just sit here. Although i typically would but i use saint ives scrub process made from apricot pits crush. Its a wonderful exfoal yant thats why at 82 i look the way i do if you look at ulta, a december low held valuation is reasonable. 18 growth rate probably margins than people expected i think despite the move higher you can buy it zbliel lets move to zoom and you dont have to respond you just have to move on go to zoom. Great tv show in the zbleefts only thing i can do. Our seema modi is all over the Earnings Results after the bell. Three words, slowing Revenue Growth thats not what the street wants to hear from zoom and ipo darling that has been on the tare this year revenue growing about 85 in Third Quarter compared to pennsylvania 96 growth rate in the previous quarter zoom which specializes in remote conferencing services went public in april at 6 it 2 a share. Even with the loss its up about 77 since the ipo. Another recent listing, Cyber Security frirm crowdstrike trading higher strong earnings plus raising guidance for 2020 as more Companies Prioritize security services. The cfo says he expects Free Cash Flow positive in fiscal 2021 the stock had a strong start on the Public Markets but recently has been under pressure just a for a days the ipo lockup is set to expire. Its down about 44 from highs hit back in august stoto scott back to you. Appreciate that seema thank you tim. Crowdstrike to me, the customers list is a whose who of the frrn 50, fortune 500 they are taking market share. One of the high profile ipos wasnt making money went from 95 to the 50 as we discussed the the