Tweet me jim kramer the worst hit, tech especially the cloud plays that were roaring hard not that long ago. They were crushed and the worst part, i dont think that the selling is over. Yeah, anything that helps enterprises harness the power of the cloud had been on fire coming into todays session along with anything related to streaming content and thats because of the wildly successful disney plus, the new over the top service. Theyve been the big winners for several weeks ever since nvidia and splunk whats driving this new found weakness and how long will it last isnt that what you want to know im going to walk you through all the reasons so you know whats ahead first, its the beginning of a new month, right almost every new month especially after a very big run we get a period where large funds decide to take something off the table. Not a dumb idea. Given that no one was expecting this selling, witness the clueless pajama traders as of last night and this morning who were still buying. You have to be weary its hard to find the other side of the trade when youre selling. There are so many etfs and its possible for one or two to bring down the whole group it is the tail wagging the dog but it happens weve seen it regularly since the Software Service meltdown in april of 2014. You like to be careful because these kinds of moves can be brutal and more important they can be longer lasting than the typical dip. You dip buyers focus in 2014 the whole group got hammered led by sales force. Given that sales force reports tomorrow i recommend proceeding with caution you know i love this company and ordinarily i like it when a stock pulls back going into earnings my first instinct is the bar has gotten lowered now i worry it may be rolling over along with the whole cloud cohort regardless of howe well t is doing i love salesforce and you can follow along by joining me shichindler slist. Com club. Not one of them ended in a day 24er7 all multidayor even multiweek shellackings. If youre nimble enough to be a trader, i would lighten up for most people thats a bad piece of advice. Stick with it through the pain because you never know if youll be fast enough to actually get back in a better price now the story here is still fantastic. Take a look at print printout the story from 2008 to here you will be able to see. We just checked in with salesforce at the big green conference two weeks ago they told an incredible story. That wont protect the shortterm turbulence. It may not im concerned. Im concerned because the cloud selloff looks like the real deal its not the etf driven selling, not that its so heavy, its that the buying is so thin think of etf selling as being like a machine gun while single stock buying is more like a bolt action rifle. The guy with the rifle simply doesnt stand a chance until the machine guns run out of ammo typically that takes twoor three days for the stocks to get low enough that the selling dries up it could be like that. But im just concerned for you second negative catalyst, do you see the stock of roku today . Heres the company thats become the face of cord cutting it lets you stream video directly over the internet to your television. They make it easy to watch disney plus. Best way to get your fix now rokus been downgraded many times in the last three months the stock was always able to bounce back until today when morgan downgraded it to a sell they called the recent rally unsustainable and that call resonated, which is why that stock plummeted 15 today when a stock thats supposed to have endless assaults, thats a sign of what i call over extension. Some traders believe rokus the key to this market, believe it or not, meaning they take the cue from the action and it actually was the proximate cause of todays vicious decline third negative catalyst, its china. Typically the cloud with streaming stocks dont really react to news about the trade war. Today was an exception going into the weekend there was a widespread belief that we would have a trade deal with chinese lockdown a deal that might have opened up our markets. When the Chinese Government said there need to be roll backs before we can have serious talks, this was taken as a sign that they dont care about it anymore. Thats right is that true my understanding is until President Trump signed this hong kong bill which imposes sanctions on chinese officials responsible for human rights abuses, we had a workable deal then the hong kong bill threw everything out of whack. You might think this has nothing to do with the trade war but the chinese view this in escalation. Now they want the tariffs rolled back i think thats very unlikely not when the president is increasing steal tariffs on argentina and brazil really i think to prevent them from buying cheap subsidized steel from china and dumping it here, which is why that was so significant. Thats why the market went down after starting to head up. My guess the chinese would rather take their chances and wait for the election next year. Well, in hope that they get a more amenable president like joe biden whos more of a globalist than trump i think theyre making a mistake. They could get four more years than trump shes had it with the chinese spoiling the earth no tariff gets rid of that once chinas in play we have the usual tech selling nvidia, we know it needs to close. The chinese have blocked it so far. Apple needs the trade talks to go smoothly. Doesnt really matter about the air pods the Financial Technology companies, theyre all hoping to get a crack at the Chinese Market china hurt more than just tech this was a market wide problem boeing seemed to trade lock step with the trade talks im starting to wonder there will be plenty of people who are thinking, wait a second, how the heck can this company make good on all of the payments as reparations for the 737 max fiasco they said they owe money we had america owing money the stock got hit hard i think boeing stock may be in a rollover phase, my advice. These squalls of selling take multiple days to work through the system you almost never just get one day. I think the people were simply taking profits to lock in their gains have too many winners to finish trimming their positions in just one session. The pattern of sales force and the other cloud kings is to get hit for at least three days if not longer im betting President Trumps tariff hikes go into effect on december 17th which wont be good for the stock market. At the end of the day we got too complacent once we made it through the tough month of october investors get a little giddy assuming they had nothing left to worry about. That allowed the entire cloud cohort to go higher. It was too good to be true we needed and need a shakeup we needed some sellers to instill reasonable amount of fear and worry i think were on our way there bottom line, we got hammered today, okay . And it was much more of a hammering than even the averages look like because theres not enough negativity. Once people start worrying again, stocks will come down to more reasonable levels and then you can pounce buy, buy, buy. Were not there yet and i dont think you should jump the gun. Richard in new york. Richard hey, jim. How you doing . Im good, richard how about you. Caller good. My question is warren buffet maintained significant capital stake in occidental in spite of its debt laidened balance she had. He received significant terms. While its good for buffet can this change the downward exposure of the stock . He has first dibs i think they paid too much, oxy, but i do think the company has the cash flow. I dont like the stock and i dont like how they gave they took that deal from buffet rather than just go to a bank. They might defend that, but theres too many people i talk to in banking who find it too hard to defend. Lets go to steven in tennessee. Steven caller booyah from east nashville. Representing black friday. Especially for ecommerce, cyber monday 700 million on recent sale of assets, big Short Interest insider. Set me straight. Is this just a budget Stocking Stuffer for my portfolio or is this the Christmas Present that sends my kids to vanderbilt. What do you think of pit any boast . Wow, you thought of it longer than i would have. I think this is a stock that many people have tried to catch the bottom in. Do i look like a Butcher Block to you i did some cooking on thursday but i would never let those knives near me and i wouldnt let i would fear pbi. A couple things, the president tweeting again, feds got to move stronger dollar. Totally unhelpful. We have kupa reporting great quarter, getting hit todays selloff was prompted by too much complacency i think were in the early days of a much needed shakeout. On mad money tonight, im willing to sell stocks that you may have missed. Ill tell you the names and why theyre soaring. Whats the fear index signaling going into 2020 . Im going off the charts to find out. Youre not going to like it. And the Security Software space is chock full of sexy new names you can use to play the secular trend. Im eyeing an old stand by dont miss my exclusive. And stay with cramer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter tweet cramer madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc or head to mad money dath cnbc. Com vo the flock blindly falls into formation. Flying south for the winter. They never stray from their predetermined path. But this season, a more thrilling journey is calling. Defy the laws of human nature. At the season of audi sales event. Doprevagen is the number oneild mempharmacistrecommendeding . Memory support brand. You can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Wthats why xfinity hasu made taking your internetself. And tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Some rallies are flash but others are quiet happening in dribs and drabs i call them stealth moves. The two biggest stealth moves so far, jpmorgan and United Health group. Theyve been rallying relentlessly since september the financials and the health cares are higher these two names are about as close as it gets these days to blue chip stocks theyre wellrun companies with good Balance Sheets most respected members of the indust industry in september they plummeted with unh taking out the 215 level. The ceo unleeshd a passionate side who wanted to have a single payer system and put his company out of business. In September Elizabeth warren was all about medicare for all, that means no United Health. So the stock tanked. As for jpmorgan, the same thing. Heres the thing Money Managers dont have any insight in politics. That month in september, that was now looking like the apex of warrens campaign, at least for now. It was her nadir, apex, i have no idea who will be the nominee. Trading has been unluck and misfigured ever since that moment jpmorgan has become unoppressable nothing damages them although this selloff will, in the end, i suspect take these two stocks down too the Federal Reserve no longer cutting Interest Rates a stock like jpmorgan will be under pressure as for United Health, this is the kind of stock people flock to when the economy is weak. If you think people have recovered, you want to sell Something Like unh tonight it preempted better than expected earnings. This selloff could get more ferocious and it would include the stock of United Health some will say it didnt raise guidance enough. Not true but when stocks go down people make up reasons what does this tell us i think the action here is very little to do with the broader economy and a whole lot more to do with the democratic horse race you want to know why unh caught fire warren started faltering in the polls . Then she backed away saying it would be her third year until she implemented it the stock market would love to have a more centrist business friendly democrat run against trump. Wall street was terrified of warren, still is as her numbers have faded unh and jpmorgan are higher. When you look at whats been leading us higher, these stocks arent hostage to the fed, trade talks or impeachment hearings. Theyre all about polls in the democratic parties and primaries. The polls could change again the recent action is realistic regardless who takes the white house, votes are like medicare for all or breaking up the banks, simply wont be there in the senate you dont need to be a keen political mind to know that you just need to know how to count although once again, when gripped with a selloff like the one i think we are having right now, it just doesnt matter how blue the chip is mad money is back. We call it the mother standard of care. Its the idea that if our mothers were diagnosed with cancer, how would we want them to be treated . Thats exactly how we care for you. With answers and actions. To hear your concerns, quiet your fears, lift your spirits. Thats the mother standard of care. This is how we inspire hope. This is how we heal. Cancer Treatment Centers of america. Appointments available now. After a rough day like today, how worried should we be . Weve had a spectacular bull run. Everybody knows that do we take this day in stride or some sort of garden variety property taki profit taking . Im concerned about the latter moments like this whats good is i find it very helpful to take a step back and look at things through a more quantitative lens a monday edition with the help of legendary larry williams. Hes been trading since i was a kid. Williams is a nearly mythic call figure on wall street. Hes written a dozen books, he has a website ireallytrade. Com over the summer when the market was getting slammed we checked in with williams and he said the negativity was peaking he nailed it the market has made a remarkable comeback three weeks ago he expressed cautious optimism. As we got closer to the end of the year the move was likely to run out of steam then the question is how close to the end of the year are we . Williams thinks whats happening right now, the decline he thinks the tide is turning its headed a little ahead of schedule with investors increasingly turning bearish and he predicts the bears will have the run of the place through mid february he thinks we could rebound but hes recommending selling into any strength even as hes still not backing away from the longterm bull market thesis lets take a look at the action in the cboe volatility index, fear index its a gauge that does a great job of reflecting the overall level of terror in the marketplace. When the vix goes down, thats a sign of fear thats 17 this is a remarkable move. I have some other people i have to tell you, this was very disconcerting to me i got to spend more time on it williams likes the vix it gives you a read. He also believes theresa cycl to volatility which is why he tries to forecast that based on the behavior and thats the red line in this chart, okay vix forecast did this. This may sound like hes making stuff up out of whole cloth. Theres a ton of rigor the vix forecast is one of the reasons why he was able to call it based on the volatility cycle, hes got a sustained up turn in the vix which tends to be very bad for the s p 500 based on his forecast, the volatility index should keep rising from february 11th, the day after my birthday, not that thats relevant in other words, investors are starting to turn bearish right here and williams is expecting it to stay that way for the next couple of months that would be different from what a lot of people are talking about. Not just the vix why dont you take a look at this chart of the s p 500. Williams has the same kind of analysis based on the cycle forecast youd expect the s p to peak right about now. The strongest shortterm cycle has lasted 80 days the market will be under presh through the beginning of march here we go daunting while these cycles can be helpful, williams likes to confirm them by Digging Deeper into tech. Take a look at the short term chart of the s p 500 with the dollar index which measures the strength of the dollar according to williams, the dollars is a good leading indicator of what will happen to stock prices so hes pushed it forward in time four weeks to illustrate that correlation while a week being back is good for american exporters, near term weakness does seem to foreshadow weakness in the stock market here are the black stock market. The dollar index has fallen off. Thats following suit. That may be one of the reasons that the price of gold is screaming higher i like gold. Thats a result of flight from stocks williams is long gold. He told us that so you know thats full disclosure i think its good to have exposure to precious metal it gives the thing hes predicting we went on and how much i like that finally, theres the commodity futures trading commissions commitment of traders report and this is called the cot report. Thats what its short for every week the cftc releases positions. We care about the large speculators, institutional money. So take a look at this chart of the s p futures with the commitment of traders data you can see theyre taking a really negative turn here in the most recent weeks. This is concrete proof that Money Managers are getting more cautious if they are getting more cautious, you dont want to take the other side no, this is about selling. This is indicating selling pressure coming. Put it altogether and williams thinks we are about to get pretty ugly here we could have one more bounce before the negativity completely takes over he thinks you should use any strength to ring the register. I agree with him that we were due for a shakeout i said that in the morning show. Since i expect the president to raise his tariffs on china in two weeks, it might take tim for the pain to unfold it suggests that the markets animal spirits are turning from bullish to bearish for the next few months he thinks you should try to side step the pain. Im going to another vix expert tomorrow because this wa