Start on black friday, despite shoppers already splashing out on deals with online u. S. Holiday spending expected to top 140 billion and a Software Deal with japans top supermarket operator, putting shares on cost for their best day since may 2018 well, good morning, everybody. Welcome to street signs. Wall street was closed yesterday for thanksgiving, but asia was negative overnight we had the hang seng drop 2 , the weakest drop in three weeks. That spelled out the tone for europe you see behind me, there is a lot of red on the board. Again, a lot of concern building about the possibility of phase one trade talks breaking down. This after President Trump signed into legislation a law that supports the hong kong protesters, there has been somewhat of a point of contention between the two sides over the last 24 hours or so one of the reasons why we have seen declines in asian equities and as were seeing now, stoxx 600 trading down the open was weaker. We recovered some ground in the last half an hour or so. So things are moving in the right direction for this last trading day of the month of november for the month, as were talking about stoxx 600, up 2. 8 well talk about the month end in a moment. Lets talk about sectors, the individual breakdown of how things are looking and individual indices i should say. Ftse 100, 7400 is where were at, were down 10 points, a tenth of a percentage point weaker worth bearing in mind, we have been talking a lot about the polling and the general elections. We had some weak retail sales numbers, Consumer Confidence numbers come out of the uk this morning. The weakest level since 20 13. Something to bear in mind on this heavy shopping day of black friday today xetra dax down, weak german retail sales numbers, down more than 1. 5 month on month for the month of october this after being flat the month before we weak macro hanging over the dax. Cac 40, air france klm, close to the bottom, down 1. 5 percentage points, downgraded to underperform by some brokers in italy, the ftse mib is down. 2 negative tone really lets talk about the sectors, jumping the gun earlier, at the top, media up. 4, retail up. 25. Heavy shopping couple of days ahead of us with black friday today, cybermonday on monday, coming up. And already the initial indicators out of the u. S. , adobe are pointing to online sales of more than 140 billion. So well see whether or not that transpired in the uk as well a topic we will cover in the show in the next 60 minutes. At the bottom, we have basic resources down. 5 percentage point, shanghai composite weaker, basic resources down day today. And cyclicals, banks, down. 4 moderately negative start to the day for european indices on the last trading day of the month. There are more major pro democracy protests planned for the weekend in hong kong after last sundays local Council Elections precipitated a brief pause in the months of demonstrations overnight, smaller crowds celebrated President Trumps decision to approve a new law designed to protect democratic rights in hong kong. Our colleague emily tan has the latest details thousands gathered in the Central Business district last night for a thanksgiving rally, giving thanks to washington for the hong kong human rights and democracy act. And President Trump signing that bill into law. They were flying the u. S. Flag and carrying portraits of President Trump and congressmen who supported the legislation. The organizer put the turnout at 100,000 with the police giving a more conservative estimate of 9,600. Protesters say the passage of the bill and the district counsel elections are not the endgame and are urging for a continued fight with the hong kong people. It was a largely peaceful rally which ended with a brief confrontation with a man using a laser pointer. China has warned the u. S. Of firm countermeasures saying their attempt to interfere is doomed to fail Chinas Foreign Ministry has summoned a meeting with u. S. Ambassador to china, Terry Branstad here is the foreign ministrys response to trumps signing the bill into law. Translator we remind the u. S. That hong kong is part of china, and Hong Kong Affairs are chinas internal affairs, where no Foreign Government or force shall interfere. This act will only further expose the malicious nature of u. S. Intentions to the Chinese People including our hong kong compatriots and the Chinese People will only stand in greater solidarity the u. S. attempts are bound to fail as hong kong enters the 26th weekend of protests, the situation has remained largely peaceful in the past week. And in the leadup to the district Council Elections last sunday, which saw the pan democrats secure a landslide victory, taking majority in 17 of 18 district councils. Im emily tan in hong kong, back to you talking about the 26th week of protests in hong kong, lets look back at how the hang seng index did for the month of november you see that for the month, it was down 2 , most of it actually happened today so the index has been remarkably resilient, despite the demonstrations and the protests that continue to take place in hong kong. You can see that things really flared up a week ago when the university siege happened. The alibaba ipo, initially that stock was up 12 the last couple of trading days. Today, down about 2 thats one of the underperforming stocks on the hang seng index. Thats a picture for the hang seng shanghai for the month of november, a lot of focus on china in the middle of these trade war and the discussions with the u. S for the month, down equal amounts at the hang seng, 1. 9 . The data has been somewhat mixed for china, we had better trade data coming out last month, but that is also underpinned by weaker manufacturing sector, weaker industrial profits and, of course, further concerns about whether or not they can get this phase one trade deal over the line. But shanghai composite slightly weaker today, but down 2 for the month of november. That is in strong contrast with global overseas equities the stoxx 600 and the performance for the month, pretty positive. Stoxx 600 up 3 for the month of november today were trading slightly on the back foot, but we saw a big bounce in the last couple of weeks of november. Mostly led by cyclicals as it emerged, data somehow appeared to be bottoming, even though at low levels, the pmis are still sub50 for some Major Economies for germany in particular. There are signs that things may be stabilizing, especially if there is a trade truce in sight. So that has been the picture for the stoxx 600, quite a good month, and third month in a row that we see the stoxx 600 end the month in positive territory. Were joined by bill denning, the chief Investment Officer from waiverton investment management. Thank you for being here i want to ask you, we saw the numbers for europe, good there, we saw the global figures that have been pretty positive for global equities. Why are they so positive given that corporate earnings havent been all that great. Well, i think some of it is down to policymakers we had the shift in the summit from the fed, so they have been cutting Interest Rates a lot of people worried they would raise Interest Rates they have been adding to their Balance Sheet again, with repo activity and the shortterm money market, the ecb firing on all cylinders. A lot of it comes down to policy easing youre right, i dont think the earnings have been there to justify it, and particularly the u. S. Market, the valuation has become very extended and on 12 month forward earnings, it is about at 18 times and that is almost certainly too ambitious. I dont necessarily think you should be too bearish here, were struggling to see what will volt the markets further up from here. Well talk about the u. S. In the next segment i want to bring it back to asian Market Performance hang seng, i was interested in actually, i was doing the wall now, the for the month of november was only down 2 , despite all the process and all that happened today r you surprised how resilient that stock market has been . We are a little bit surprised. Having said that, from what we hear on the ground, the city is getting on with life, some days you had bigger issues than others, days when schools were closed, et cetera. Broadly speaking it sounds like it is acting normally. Ive lived there for a couple of years. Hong kong has overcome lots of things in the past im surprised the market hasnt taken a little more of a down trend. It is difficult to see quite how we resolve this. There is a real impasse and what the congress and now President Trump in signing legislation around hong kong has done has sort of upped the ante a little bit. There used to be a thing where every year the peoples republic of china had to get its most favored trading nation mfn was the great buzzword that came up every 12 months. And the market used to get nervous that we wouldnt get china wouldnt get mfn in the days before it joined the trade organization they created something positive for hong kong, a test to see if hong kong is genuinely independent. This new legislation, now an annual decision. Exactly right exactly what im referring to. I think that does mean that, you know, that the stakes have been raised here. So im slightly surprised the hang seng hasnt been weaker the prc responded to this with some policy easing and youll probably see more of that. As ever, there is a balancing act between greater levels of liquidity and uncertainty. How does this fit in your view into the context of u. S. china trade to have this legislation signed by the president this week, youve seen that angry reaction from the chinese authorities, do you manage to separate this as an investor . I think you have to, because there is a the whole issue around trade and the tariffs, i think on both sides there has got to be a desire to do something about that so there is an argument that says that the introduction of tariffs has had a depressing impact on certain parts of the economy. It had probably has had a negative impact in terms in terms of the prcs economy in my opinion. So the peoples republic of china certainly i think is incentivized to do a deal despite the rhetoric trump needs a deal, he wants to be able to say the chinese have given him something in return for the tariffs, wants to say hell declare victory and say hes done something great for america here and thats good politics on his part the economics is a bit dodgy, but the politics is very good. And whatever else you think of the president , hes proved himself to be a very adept politician over the past four years. The odds are theyll do a deal my own skepticism would be the impact of that deal on the Global Economy i think it is going to be pretty diminimus. Want to take you it another market we dont talk about that often, the japanese index, the nikkei i was looking at your chart pack in preparation for the show, there was one table in particular that caught my attention. And that the valuation of the 18 Largest Real Estate Companies in japan is less than uber and lyft combined that is a remarkable statistic we just pulled it up for our viewers to look at as well what does that tell you about japanese valuations here and is it a market you want to get exposure to next year . I think japan is one of the most interesting markets out there. We think there is an interesting topdown story, so charts like that tell you there is a lot of valuation in japan away from the stock market if you are going back to 30 years, there was a period when it was alleged that the land around the imperial palace in tokyo was worth more than the entire state of california we have gone a long way from that i think that chart is just highlighting that as it values in japan are very depressed, look what is happening in corporate japan, you find a lot of companies doing the sorts of things we think tend to be additive to shareholders we have got were significantly overweight japan in our global portfolios back to the conversation in a moment bill denning is the chief Investment Officer at Waverton Investment manage speaking of japan, the eurozone is now at risk of japanifiction. The company exhibited several similar symptoms, negative rates and the continued extension of quantitative easing. Fitch says only further japanifiction could make it more vulnerable to prolonged stagnation, rising Government Debt ratios and downgrades it says greece, italy and portugal they are the economies that face the most risk. Come on, get with it. Pc culture coming up on the show, aon unveiled a restructuring for its uk division. Well have more details for you after this break no matter what i wore, i worried someone might see my bladder leak underwear. So, i switched. To always discreet boutique. Its shapehugging threads smooth out the back. So it fits better than depend. And no one notices. Always discreet. He borrowed billions donald trump failed as a businessman. And left a trail of bankruptcy and broken promises. He hasnt changed. I started a tiny investment business, and over 27 years, grew it successfully to 36 billion dollars. Im tom steyer and i approve this message. Im running for president because unlike other candidates, i can go head to head with donald trump on the economy, and expose him fo what he is a fraud and a failure. Welcome back to street signs. Corporate news for you ocado struck a deal. Neither company has disclosed the financial details of the deal another company that were looking at today, a spot of green on the board, aon shares are higher after a Million PoundRestructuring Plan for the uk business and power Union Officials say the overhaul will result in 4,500 job losses, but the German Company still raised its outlook for 2019 off the back of the groups takeover of energy. Our colleague joins us live from frankfurt with more details. Any idea why the Market Reaction has been so positive to this restructuring announcement today . Well, actually, everybody was waiting for some plan for end power because clearly this unit which they kind of took over together with energy was lost, making the uk market has been a very difficult market for quite some time. Last year the uk introduced a price cut which led to already losses, Challenging Market environment, and so the question was more or less will they keep it, will they restructure it, or will they perhaps even sell it altogether when it came off the management with the energy deal. Now we have a clear plan and that is something which most likely is going down quite well with investors so by 2022, the business should be profitable once again and generate 100 Million Pounds in ebid after some substantial investment in smart meter. Thats the plan here the medium term, a lot of pain for that unit, up to 4,500 jobs are about to go. At the same time, of course, in eon is lifting its guidance, so that is positive as well theyre saying now theyre seeing adjusted ebitda of 3. 1 to 3. 3 billion euro for the year. And the adjusted net profit of 1. 45 to 1. 65 billion euro for that year. So essentially i guess eon as a share has been lagging the general dax environment. So it is only up by not even 4 here to date, where as the dax is up by more than 25 it couldnt it didnt go that well because clearly it is very defensive stock. But now with that energy deal, which passed regulators in september, theyre the big oft infrastructure plan, Energy Infrastructure in europe and Going Forward that should be attractive investment also for investors now as their tackling all the problems theyre having. With that, back to you. Thank you so much for the details there. Just to bring you some details from an interview involving the british Prime MinisterBoris Johnson, going on at the moment. The Prime Minister saying that once again the National Health service in the uk is not up for negotiation in trade talks, of course the Opposition Labor Party has been very critical of documents that show conversations between uk trade negotiators and american counterparts that talk about things like drug pricing and the length of time for patents involving pharmaceuticals. Johnson saying also that hes working on at least a dozen trade deals, the British Government is, saying hes not sure quite exactly how many there are, but up and ready, saying some of them have been formalized talks under way with many countries. He says, of course, this is a very key issue for a lot of voters ahead of this december 12th election who are concerned about the possibility of a no deal brexit, that he says he sees no reason to go beyond the transition period deadline that is the end of december 2020 and if trade deals not agreed with the European Union by then it would mean the uk leaves on no deal terms. Wto terms. A look at the markets in the us us it is november 30th, 29th or 30th last trading day of the month. Were looking back at some of the key indices and how they perform for the month of november dow up 4 , second strongest month for this year. Remember, back in june actually jumped 7 , but still very, very Strong Performance year to date up about 20 the dow keeps on doing well. Of course, this, remember, that at the end of october the fed did cut rates for the third time