Street stocks set to open at new records once again the stock market just hit another all time in history high, meaning 401 k s and jobs everybodys getting rich and im working my off. Shares of deere sliding, ahead of the open. Issuing a profit warning for fiscal 2020 as trade tensions persist. The toys r us come back, after shuttering all the stores, the new Companies First toy store set to open in new jersey this morning as stocks look to set some new records on optimism about trade, Economic Data today is also in the mix. 3q revised up. Business investment up 1. 2 proxy for investment, that was not a good number last month making up for it now. In tune with what the market has been trying to say, which is that we had this soft patch, were pulling out of it, i think there is a real willingness by the market by investors to look through any near term kind of softness in the incoming numbers because they feel as if we kind of escaped the greatest risk i think these numbers would confirm that 2 economy was an upside surprise, where the markets were in august. The only question is are we going to run this market up to a level where the recognition that were still at 2 economy will be a disappointment. I dont know where that level is were kind of clicking higher, bond yields not doing much sitting there, very benignly not because of stress or recession fears. That underwrites the valuations of equities. Lpl with nice numbers out today. Ten new highs for the s p this month is the most since january of 2018. One of the most ever for a november. Interesting, good news that we actually cannot exceed january of 2018, because thats the month that stands out as the massive overshoot. So the massive overshoot to the upside in that kind of post tax cut euphoria. David, whether you couple the data this week with the trade optimism, with the m a that got piled on today and according to you, still room to pile on some more people are talking a decent game at this point well see whether that results in any larger announcements before year end. But your point is a good one, carl m a is any banker will tell you, lawyer, anyone advising on th these transactions a reflection of confidence. You can assume there is ceo confidence out there if youre a multinational considering a large deal or a cross border, youre going to be giving pause whether it is about the overall environment right now, in terms of what your Capital Spending will look like or what the company you might be acquiring is going to look like, what is coming in in terms of orders, regulatory reviews, if you need china, for example. All that said, that was a serious merger monday we had a couple of days ago and it does have to be taken as a positive you look at financing markets, i think november is one of the biggest issuance months for high yield debt in a couple of years market just like took it all in, happy to have it all, every dealer oversubscribed. You wonder why there isnt more it seems like the market cap, the overall aggregate market, were not necessarily, you know, hitting highs for activity. No. Were not. There is a little bit of concern, sort of the ccc level and there has been a little over the last couple of weeks in particular some concern about the financing markets for the lower rated credits, mike, which could go to private equity and its appetite but youre right i mean, you know, overall you can raise enormous amounts of money what the are relatively very low rates, which is why you do at least have some people thinking about crazy not crazy, ill take that back, large, large deals like walgreens. Sure. Which had you pencil it out, it is hard to see how to returns really will be there, given the debt load they take on to your point, could be viable. People back in the envelope saying bloomberg lp could be for sale could private equity do it. Bloomberg, if that was for sale, and ive tried to make calls on that, it is very much unclear thats the case, the question with bloomberg is who the ultimate buyer of that company would be because it doesnt necessarily fit, it is very large, right so fox, for example, no. By the way, him selling it to rupert murdoch, not going to happen theyre way smaller. You got the media part of the business you have the more important cash flow part of the business, which is the data and the machines but who is large enough to buy a 50 billion asset is a real question. Black stone bought the Thompson Reuters business. They immediately almost flipped it to the appetite for that type of that was a much smaller deal. Thats a huge deal i dont know, but i think if in fact he moves along, and it really becomes a question as to whether hes going to truly try to actually sell that business, which, by the way, is completely unclear at this point, i think it will be very interesting to see private equity really could step up or whether they need to go a different route in some fashion and split it. We got m a, the data, and some guidedowns today. Deere down in the premarket, despite better than expected results, Company Forecasts weaker Equipment Sales than fiscal 20. Says deere has been hurt by uncertainties in the agricultural sector. Their line is ongoing lingering trade tensions coupled with difficult growing and harvesting conditions is one of two downward revisions to guidance, including dell, where were still talking and wondering whether this is about enterprise pain or intel chip shortage. The deere announcement, you say, thats kind of what you might have expected given foreign economics now and stress in that area the stock is up 20 from the august low it was part of this broader trade toward cyclicals, maybe we have seen the bottom, we can reaccelerate from here and right now, it is not an expensive stock, but it in terms of how it typically trades is maybe had been a bit ahead of itself, to absorb this kind of a guidedown. Typical cyclical. Without a doubt question is, is it going to have leg and youll see caterpillar, i mean, agco will open layer it will go beyond this exact equipment sector, to encompass broader industrials, i doubt it, it is ag specific in terms of the nature. A lot to work with on a day where liquidity drys up before the holiday. Joining us with perspectives on this recordsetting market, david zervos, happy thanksgiving, good to see you. What is the s p earn the right to top out at given the news of the last couple of weeks. Thats a toughy i think what were really adjusting to here is mike was on it earlier, lower rates, higher multiples, settling into a fed that is not going anywhere, any higher anytime soon probably could go lower if things got messy, even though the politics will be tricky next year for that. But were really adjusting to the fact that people dont want to take these multiples up to 19 or 20, but if were really sitting at 175 tenyear note, thats not an unreasonable multiple thats the tussle that is happening today. It is a grind. We had a great year, up until the summer, we hit 3,000 first, it was a 20 year. This last 5 i think does not have a lot of participation in it people have kind of held back and said, maybe well get a pullback and i sense with our clients a lot, and even myself, there is a reluctance to jump in above 3,000, especially if you have the trade youre getting fomo and people dragged in a little bit. Thats story i dont think there is a topping out here of any kind if were really in an environment of this low rate structure and a fed back stop to the downside, kind of got a lot of room to run in 2020. Phil gross would say, 175 a year from now and stock down 10. What do you think . I think could envision that world, but to davids point, i think there is the implicit put at play. Theyre worried about equity volatility, which could tighten financial conditions, and thats when they need to get involved again. And so if anything i would say a continued grind higher in the equity market, even if and when the fed actually has to get involved so that leaves the ten year yield in a defineable range, a massive buy when i talk to bint clooi clients, theyre waiting for the opportunity, were waiting for the cyclical resteepening of the curve. Terminal rate for this cycle is in. It is 140. It is not the 425 they initially estimated. So the right call, a year ago for 2019, we have a recession scare, three rate cuts, thats it for now and the s p multiple goes from 14 to 18 on a forward basis. What does that set us up for right now in terms of the opportunity to build on that i wondered, in terms of, yes, you can incrementally inch ahead on the valuation side, are we looking at a static ten year type picture i dont think so. I think the ten year is the tricky place the front end is a much easier place to get comfortable that we dont have a normal distribution meaning the probability of 100 basis points higher versus 100 basis points lower is very different. Lower rates are much more likely at the front end in the back end, we have a fed that is going to change its inflation framework probably in 2021 the market will see that, hear about that, i think jay powell two nights ago pushed that point further in his speech that inflation undershoots are a big, big deal the long end will get a little skiddish on that and so this concept of a steepenering steepene steepenering, maybe you get some people squeezed out of it. I think thats really the story. You got to be careful in the tenyear because if the fed did change this framework, which i think they will do after the election, we will have a fed that gets very easy, very fast, that will bring the short end down, might even bring more qe to the table it could take the long end yields higher. And that actually is a pretty interesting thing for the stock market because stock market is going to have to adjust to this longer term rate that maybe goes up a little bit. It could be a wash almost for stocks thats with judy shelton not on the thats with judy shelton if the next move is a cut, your mid90s analog goes away you had three rate cuts, and the next moves were up we had the 395s and three more i get you you had an intermittent im not trying to be cute about it, but are we still basically like trying to forestall the end of the cycle . Thats what they have been trying to do for the entire cycle. By definition, Monetary Policy wants to take the highs and lows out, extend the sxnexpansion as long as possible im worried about the invasion hangover there tends to be an 18 month lag between that compression and when it truly starts to hit corporate profitability. Corporate profits shrink, layoffs increase, thats where it hits the consumer people stop spending probably wont be this Holiday Season it is certainly on the radar for 2020. Inversion two thats a sequel were not interested in. Thanks, guys good weekend. Happy holidays. When we come back, the return of toys r us just in time for black friday well take you to the mall where the new store is opening the premarket here, well get to other names, a lot of earnings on the tape on the day before holiday. Hp, box, news on ford, tesla, boeing were back in a moment im a regular in my neighborhood. Im a regular at my local coffee shop and my local barber shop. When you shop small you help support your community from after School Programs to the arts so become a regular, more regularly. Because for every dollar you spend at a Small Business, an average of 67 cents stays in the community. Join me and American Express on Small Business saturday, november 30th, and see how shopping small adds up. Today marks the return of toys r us and the new bricks and mortar store the last live shot had a bit of a costar there. He did. Hes a little busy he cut the ribbon on this brandnew toys r us store. If youre confused, thats because you might remember that the retailer did file for bankruptcy, it closed all of its 800 store 800 stortores. The brand was purchased by a whole new company. It is starting fresh it is called true kids this is the first two of planned stores this year right now they only have plans for a total of ten by the end of next year. So considerably smaller than the toys r us you once knew. The stores are 6500 square feet. The old ones, 40,000 square feet it is a lot more experiential and a bit less inventory driven. As you can see, there certainly is inventory here you can buy from 40 brands including toymakers like hasbro, lego, melissa doug and a number of others what is interesting, toys r us. Com, if you want to buy something there, you click on the link to the toy you want and it actually redirects you to target. Com target. Com is fulfilling all the orders so the website is sort of a landing page with a redirection. So ironically target is benefitting from this relaunch too. We know what kind of a weekend quarter and year target had. Just thinking about apparel, one sector that has not participated in the rally overall this month. If you look at how the Retail Stocks have performed, it is the apparel heavy ones that had the hardest time thats something that hasnt changed. It has been the kind of declared winners of omni channel that have been the ones, which are the ones that dont depend as much on clothes, so, yeah. First of many hits well be doing this week on retail. Thats for sure. You are working friday black friday. We are. One of the most fun days of the year to work. You do . Really funny you never show up for it. Usually i do. It is very nice here on the floor. All the kids come. Im always here for whatever reason seniority really works in my favor. Courtney, thanks. Well see you in a little while. When we return, vm ware and autodesk moving in opposite directions on the respective earnings reports stay tuned we are coming off record highs, looking for more this morning, all three indices riding a threeday win streak and on pace for the best month since june. Livongos mission is to empower people with chronic conditions to live better and healthier lives. We started livongo with a vision of transforming the health and Care Experiences of People Living with chronic conditions. We believe that our unique Member Experience will soon transform the Healthcare System as we know it today. Nothing could be more meaningful than impacting the health and happiness of our members and were just getting started. But he wanted snow for thelace members holidays. So we built a snow globe. Ill get that later. Dylan but the one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with homeowners insurance. What . Switching and saving was really easy i love you what . Sweetie hands off the glass. Ugh call geico and see how easy saving on homeowners and condo insurance can be. I love her most people think of verizon as a reliable phone company. woman but to businesses, were a reliable partner. We Keep Companies ready for whats next. man we weave security into their business. Virtualize their operations. woman and build ai customer experiences. We also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. Almost all the fortune 500 partner with us. woman when it comes to digital transformation. Verizon keeps business ready. Boeing shares under pressure this morning, new reports that the 777 x fuselage split dramatically during a september stress test. Phil lebeau joins us now to put this story into context. Hey, phil. Hey, mike this is one of those stories you see the headline, you see the picture, the Seattle Times has a picture of it today, people will say, oh, my goodness, how can this plane get in the air . This is part of the development process. And apparently in september this fuselage rip happened on a 777 x as they were checking the maximum pressure that the fuselage could go through. This is standard for all commercial aircraft. They do this in basically to see the limits of how far a plane can be pushed, the Seattle Times points out that despite the tear, this may not slow certification of the 777 x look at shares of boeing over the last three months, the 777 x is the next commercial airplane that the Company Expects to have certified. That certification and first flight is expected to happen by the end of next year guys, back to you. Phil, we are as we mentioned, were seeing a little bit of a backing away of boeing shares, which have been trying too come back lately do you think there is a lot of 777 expectation, you know, in the price right now . Is that the is there a knee jerk reaction here does anybody think it is going to change any sort of timeline on this new plane i would say the 777 x is not impacting shares this morning. I think it is due to the fact as we reported yesterday on fast money, the faa sent a letter to boeing yesterday saying that had it comes to certification of the 737 max, in the past what would happen is they would say, okay, the plane overall is certified, this person is delegated from boeing to sign off on a number of the aircraft as they come off the assembly line, if theyre good to go by this persons estimate, then theyre good to go, theyre certified. All the planes that are parked here, they have to be approved by the faa individually, one by one, which means the 737 max, when it is recertified, it could be a longer process for those deliveries actually to take place to customers. Phil, thanks so much. A lot of news on your beat today as well. Phil lebeau. 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I did see that bookmaker, which is a bookmaker out of the eu, has the cybertruck over the ford at 3 to 1. And they have little to go on other than