Now. Lets get right to it its been a sturdy here with the xhp etf tracking the group outperforming the broad are markets. Look at some of the names leading the space. Dr horton. La nar all surging double digits and less than 5 from fresh 52woke highs. The chart master says one name is building up for an even big are break out. Carter head over to the plasma and break it down. Sure looking at whirlpool not a home builder but related nonetheless. And whirlpool mab a laggard i think thats the opportunity here the fiveyearchart. Two lines you can see the divergence le nar, poulty and other names orange whirlpool basically what you are talking about is no progress for the better part of five years. Literally not no progress bad versus this. Now watch. Here is the chart. How can we draw the line sns one way we can draw the lines is call this a double bottom. You can also call this a fairly big head and shoulders become. You can all this a cup and handle any way you splice it or dice it suggesting the bottoming out has followthrough if you put in the moving average you see a way to measure trend this is clearly a dunne trend. For what its worth a uptrend a sequence of higher lows and higher highs the betting here is this breaks out lets zero in on the chart here and now a lot of tension you can see, again if you wanted to put in a couple and handle part you can do it that way. But this is important. What i see is the breakout above the top. You will see it here slight dwap above. The tension is there the lechls are remarkably precise as is so often the case with a good setup. Here today, the last two days we just punched about i think we have plenty to run here i want to play whirlpool on the longside. Carter come ban on back mike whats the trade. Whirlpool is interesting of course because this is not a growth story we are looking at revenues dplmt now where they were about five years ago. Marginally higher. Earnings improved so margins Getting Better look at this trading low double digit pe here. About 8 times ebidta its not a big growth story. Not expensive. Whats interesting is that the options are quite expensive. Looking to december what we can see is that the Options Market implies this thing moves about 21, 22 higher or lower. Consequently, the options are fairly expensive in the market market the environment and given the fact that options are expensive my inclination is call spread on the long spd looking at december 160, 17 a call preyed. That was 5 looking he willier today. Youd spend 7. 85 the 175 geps it for 285 thats the next debit of 5 a a little bit more than we like to spend on convert calcium. But its a situation where because the options are expensive and this is going to help mitigate at a that a little bit. This is one of the situations where if you just buy outright options you are paying remme up process here we limit the premium to 3 of the current stock price. And obviously if we get a move certainly a plof pliek the one the Options Market implies in our favor direction that we should do pretty well this way. Dan, what do you think . I personally dont have a lot to say on whirlpool in general the charts carter showed on the Home Builders is instruct pef. This is a name downtrend for years. It break broke tout the breakdown level landfall last year that is a lot of sales outside the u. S. Its the whole strayed trade situation is interesting for this one so i dont really i dont know how it shakes out with whirlpool. I dont like or dislike mikes trade one way or another i dont like the idea of ricking five to make ten you got to get the direction right and the stock has to be up 10 to break even. Your view is shared by most on the street opinion pap and the street is indifferent on this stock its a competitive business. There is only a handful of players in it. We were talking about earlier. Its not likely to get exciteding but i think carters point is a good one these are the types of things where there tends to be a potential flar somebody could step in and say all right well if i can at least pay for the low cost of debt at this point that you create a potential bid underneath it by the private Equity Community or Something Like that. Really was to fall out but i dont like being long it dont chase the Home Builders. Germly we saw bullish active len nar we were talking about earlier this week and last and here we are in that space. Very close to or on the alltime highs. Its a bit of chasing thats why you want to use options if you are pressing bullish bets after you see big runs and whirlpool however is not at alltime high its quite a bit thats either the opportunity or trap but what we know is its very cyclical business and cyclical stock. Here it is at 155. The the day to day action is good better to be long than short. Chip stocks put a spin cycle of their own and if you think this is the beginning of semi smackeden dan mass a way to play it. Just go look at this group you know within technology its highly cyclical and we know its been very volatile the last two years and obviously like we were talking about have been subject to the trade headlines i would tell you that the fact that they have made some new highs this year where some other groups in tech have not confirmed the Broader Market highs tells you that this is a group that people are gunning for when they think that the trade talks get better or when we get better commentary about global growth. That chart there is pretty interesting to me because there have been two new highs this year one came in april and one in july and in both instances, the april new high found a 19 peak to trough decline pap just so you know that came after q 1 earnings then go to late july the smh, the etf space tracking semi space had a 13 peak to trough decline there. Obviously you can see the uptrend from the december lows come a long way. Here we are no new high. But whats most important that the decideens we got from micron last night should have set alarm bells off on a lot of investors who thought we were closer to a bottom in the cycle. And it may not even be were that much further from a bottom. It might be a much less profitable rice from that bottom because if you think about what micron said, they are seeing pressure on Gross Margins and headwinds because of trade specifically with china. When i think about this as we go into quarter end a lot of the Semi ConductorCompanies Used to give midquarter updates they dent like transparency anymore bottas maybe because they dont have the visibility in the businesses they used to have but i think we could get a couple more negative preannouncements and you might see this group top out as theyve that he done the last two quarters around serngs season you take a shot it goes back to the upfriend somewhere down mere yb i dont know maybe a little below it 105 or so today when the smh trading at 117. 75 you could look to november expiration by the 117106 put spread paying three resist dollars for buying one of november 117 puts for 4. 50. Selling one of the november 106 puts at 1. 5 breaking even at 1. 14 and make up the as and i play the sentiment the sentiment got bullish in the space we got a negative fundamental did it point the fds look constructive but it could be a full back on fundamental if yous back to the weak. Like on negative trend we saw the smh irk missourian in particular down already and fook a leg lower when we heard about the delisting story. The thing is one kwo say it made new highs but the thing about the new high its like any new milestone. You got to make it wsh achieve the goal tp to make a slight new high and fail its a triple top. Think about the individual securities intel has never maepd in in nvidia the number one performer for six eight years is not working. Mu ment xy link its not the clear indication people would think any weakness here would trap a lot of people. Two things i would point to look how the smh formed performed to the second quarter. You saw a 20 decline in five weeks. That gives you a sense how far and fast in thing can move the other thing is because it can do that often times you have the etfs, the options are cheap. We talk about that all the time. Here you want to use the put spread though. The reason is if you look out to november if there was a vix november vix for smh wed be in the mid to high 20s. Its not cheap optionalty you get. You definitely want to use the spread here. This is another one of those situations like the one we were talking about before spending 3 for an 11dollar put spread maybe more than we otherwise would. But well justified by the fact we have the catalyst coming up we see the volatility weve had and you get the lead in with what we saw from micron. This is one of situations where you get to see smoke and now you get to bet essentially you get the fire insurance. Ill mention you talk about the high price of options and its been volatile aid i had around trade henlts. Weve seen kbr intraday moves from low or high going off the trade headline to me it makes sense to spread it thats whydy it here if you are really convicted and you thnk we get a move you buy the puts outright and wait for the move and look to spread but thats how you choose to do it i like the risk reward of ricking three to possibly make 8 2 of the underlying stock price. Is there one chip bell weather you look to. Carter mentioned a couple of names. N individually yunnia down 40 peppers from the pie xy links. Guy dam adami wouldnt show up about every day. Now down 30 and looks like its breaking down. Amd was a darling. It just broke the uptrend from the december lows and looks like its about to fail so you know, intel is in the in the midpoint orp below the midpoint of the oneyear range i dont see anything. In the whole smh. Two charts that look kood good taiwan semi conduct ertz made and Texas Instruments thats it. If texas. Mchp tourp. Of material market cap. And thats whats hold going up because those are constituents one and two i think. Correct. For everything options action check out or website options action. Cnbc. Com much more options action ahead here is whats coming up. There is a reason why the phrase too much much a good thing might soon apply to costco mike khouw explains. Calling all options actions fans reach into your pocket, grab your phone and tweet us your question at tis opon action. If its nice well answer it on air when options action returns. See thats funny, i though options action is sponsored by think or swim by Td Ameritrade whats the hesitation . Eh, it just feels too complicated, you know . Well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. Jj, will you break it down for this gentleman . Hey, ian. You know, at Td Ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until youre comfortable. I could be up for that. Thats taking options trading from wall st. To main st. Hey guys, wanna play some pool . Eh, im not really a pool guy. Whats the hesitation . Its just complicated. Stepbystep options trading support from Td Ameritrade inches welcome back to options action. Check out shares of costco down more than 2 this month after jumping to a monstrous 40 gain this year. Mike says the party might be over in the pantry over at the plasma with a call to action, mike. Were looking at a put calendar we use this strategy quite often when we go into kaltsisting like we are in the case of costco here are the things you should be paying attention to because probably like my family youre at costco a lot process we go there because things are cheap. But costco itself is not right now quite an elevate the valuation. We look at that in a second. The other thing seeing elevated valuation are options into earnings right now implying a move about 4. 5 above the 3. 8 it averages the last 8 quarter be sten oh the moves. The thing is i like the company. I just dont like the stock. For me this is kind of a hold situation. Rather than an outright sell so going into the earnings less lets just take a quick peek at the valuation. How do you like this 36 times trailing 12month earnings, that is a history of that valuation over the course of the last ten years. So in is essentially right now a peak valuation over the course of the last decade we can see that in the stock price as well and here we are. We can see what melissa was talking about, this huge move we have seen here i do think that were in this sort of tricky spot where you have to do incredible things essentially to justify a big move up after you see valuations like this. So very simply, i was just looking at the october 4th weekly november 280 put spread you could sell these puts, the 280 weeks spiering next friday more 3. 95 by the ones in november for 7. 80 obviously if you hold this after the expire appear you wait until november expiration you need it to fall below the 280 strike price by about whatever four bucks that you are spending a little bit less. But the other thing is that if it actually just comes right into here and sits here. This optionss going to decay away this one could appreciate. So this is a situation where you can own longer term protection if it does this you want to hold that put but it can profit actually if the stenograph lange wishes and fails to make new high mike why dont you come back over carter what do you think of the charts and mikes trade. Within retail we knee know we had the great bifurcatation. Losers and winners dollar general, costco home depot, target. All big moves to the upside but the one nas had that are full, if you will. I think there is a lot of risk of those giving ground and costco is in the bucket. The recent fading i think is not over but likely to be the beginning of more trouble. You know, thats from a guy who i think months ago called the break out and this thing has been off to the races since. I think thats having the stock has taken a pause and interesting to focus on the fact that walmart, target, costco home depot had the breakouts run away breakouts this one in particular feels like its getting heavy. Mikes trade is interesting. If you dont think its a strong move lower following results, that trade makes total sense if you think this stock could go down a lot next week, the 285 weekly puts are the 6 thats about 2 of the stock price to the point if you are convicted on a downmove, the options look cheap, in my opinion, on just playing that but thats just a fiveday trade and basically like flipping a coin with worst odds. He is that the key here do you think the stock is going to basically run into headwinds, maybe trade off a little bit or are you specking a big gap lower . I mean, we can think about two big names that announced earnings recently not necessarily related to costco but Federal Express here is a name everybody thought was getting cheap. I was among those. Clearly it wasnt. And you know the thing had one of its worst earnings basically since the credit crisis. You can look at nike people said look thats trading pat peak valuations then a good number and actually traded up but we did this same trade on nike and that trade actually did okay despite the enact it went higher or didnt lange wish and go lower. This is one of the situations where there is two things that can happen and both of them are going to work okay but if to your point, dan, you sawedly see a move and everyone reprices to 27 times earnings or 30 times earnings you see some real punishment in the stock i dont think thats going to happen. Think about the two instances mike referred to nikes gap up, feeble. Fedexs drop in gap, microns drop in gap. Huge a lot of asymmetriy in the market and thats the risk. All right coming up its friday. So you know what that means. Can you tweet us your burning questions at options action. You might get answers on air plus we will reveal the name of this free falling fang stock and why the recent move might be good news for one of our traders. Live from the nasdaq in times square dont go anywhere. Options action, back right after this indistinguishable muttering that was awful. Why are you so good at this . Had a coach in high school. Really helped me up my game. I had a coach. Math. Ooh. So, why dont traders have coaches . Who says they dont . Coach mcadoo you know, at Td Ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum just to help you improve your skills. Boom mad skills. Education to take your trading to the next level. Only with Td Ameritrade. What do you look for i want free access to research. Yep, Td Ameritrades got that. Free access to every platform. Yeah, that too. I dont want any trade minimums. Yeah, i totally agree, they dont have any of those. I want to know what im paying upfront. Yes, absolutely. Do you just say yes to everything . Hm. Well i say no to kale. Mm. Yeah, they say if you blanch it its better, but that seems like a lot of work. No hidden fees. No platform fees. No trade minimums. And yes, its all at one low price. Td ameritrade. Welcome back to options action. Time to a look at open trades. Its a jungle out there. Last week dan said amazon might get caught in the weeds. Amazon has a fundamental driver that could take it lower. The fact that stock broke down below the uptrend that has been in place since december and stayed down the last month and a half or so tells me its weak relevant i have to mag cup pierce its hugging the 200 day moving average. Which is the only technical support. You could look to november expiration catching the earnings event and buy the november 7, 165,000 put spread paying 50 for that breaking even at 17. 10. Amazon down 5 since the trade. What do you do now dan. Interestingly the long put strike its in the money the suffolk is down about 70. The put spread that cost 50 is worth 75 i think you have an opportunity to next we can it did break the nearterm support. There is nothing below it for a bit. I think you have the opportunity to maybe take some profits when you see this thing at some point in the 1,600 range a and in the not distant future. That was a good one broke where it should and now the june lows are in plap. Heavy and crowded downside. Maybe roll it take the profits off on li and roll down. Cut through the june lows enough to get things moving. Another three, four . Explain that real quickly the pinpoint is et cetera lets say in a week the stock is down another 50 and you have a double on it lets say you bought one contract. Great point you own the long put sometimes look at something in the delta your machines allow that you have a 60, 65 delta long put strike roll that down by the 40s against the other shorts take the profits on but keep the keep that convexity press the shorts. Meantime mike said nike move mo might have to stop and catch breat