Transcripts For CNBC Fast Money 20240714 : comparemela.com

CNBC Fast Money July 14, 2024

We begin with a teching wreck on wall street. The fang stocks stumbling, all posting big big losses the past few days is this fangfree fall taking down the Broader Market tim . Some cht frank free fall is something i think we saw three to six months ago. Clearly with the regulatory headlines on doj in june big moves facebook and google have had a tough time getting out of their own way amazon got back up to alltime high has not exceeded that ill let the chartist tack about that but when you think about the market for the last month and four or five months yes we saw the interesting rotation into cyclical stuff a month aigt. But really the defensive rotation is something thats been alive and well for plshl six to nine months as evidence by utilities thats an environment you cant see fangout perform and the multiples caught up to the stocks i know the multiple on google. Not so much. I know the multiple on facebook, not so much. But i think again you have regulatory pressures on top of very high multiple stocks. And we could get into the fundamentals on netflix. But ill leave that for. On top of the powerful rotation you also wraut up into value stocks. Into value i think this facebook and google could be considered value for a while theyll sort of traed with with the headlines and antitrust or but, i think its going to be another three and a half four weeks before we see earnings to me thats what theyre that is the ballast for these stocks if they return if they continue the growth trajectory the stocks will be fine. Today it actually it was poff it was off more closed didnt close in the high but down less than half a . I like google here i like facebook too. Even though obviously bad headlines it could trade down. You know you mentioned the chartist looking at amazon and facebook what is interesting today is that the stocks are broken below the uptrend in place from the december lows. You know, i think its important to when are when the doj and ftc headlines came out in june these guys got nailed and they are up considerable but they stalled at a point where they never made new highs. The s p made two new highs and they didnt confirm the highs. When you look at the breakdowns below the uptrends you say what is the next thing . Its earnings i would say for amazon this could be a dicey quarter for them last quarter they saw revenue acceleration unit acceleration, they had put in place in the spring in oneday prime shipping but what they also saw is spepss go up way up and the stock has stalled since then when i think about azmodan that has a lot of risk op the expense front. We know when the high multiple stocks this is not value like the google and facebook. It could be unforgiving. And just think about netflix which is down almost 40 from highs never made a new high with the s p. I think its about positioning. Its about value and growth. I dont like google and facebook because of the regulatory hurdles. I dont like amazon. I think it sets up to be a real disappointment but what i do like is microsoft. Netflix. Microsoft. Back to maga. Microsoft and apple those are the one that is can lead the market higher. Yeah. Not the fang. I dont think fang zbloents are doesnt matter is fang falls out of bed its not a problem for the market. Its a problem. I dont think it can go dramatically higher but not dramatically lower as long as we have ma. I think were okay there because apple and microsoft those charts look intact to me. I would just mention one point. One of the things interesting with about net tbs netflix its 100 billiondollar market cap and others are 80 oh billiondollar market cap and has a impact on the market but whats interesting about sentiment is this was a much loved story. People didnt care they would lose 3 or 4 billion infree cash flow to compete on the content front. And now they do. And thats what. Subscribers were really there. And thats right. People didnt care about the multiple on amazon for years as well you bring zblaup thats my only point. Im not tell you thats happening in amazon. Im saying you it. For all of you guys loving mag eu a i realize there is different colored hats with maga i dont like the multiple on microsoft. I think cloud we saw this with amazon. That may be one of the reasons why amazon is under pressure aws is not growing the margins are not there. This is a highly competitive and maybe its not commodity advertised yet and i do think that very few can compete with microsoft in terms of a multiplatform offering. But there are those that can and pricing has to come down its not going up. I dont know how the multiple expansion. I dont know. But when you look at the Revenue Sources you see in microsoft, theyre evenly split like apple were worried that services are not coming on strong enough. But when you look at microsoft theyre pretty evenly split. I dont know if people can compete with microsoft to the extent that you think they can thats why i think it stayed on top of the hill. To tims point aws did see marjingens g down in the last quarter. People were concerned about that and if they want to protect market share they have to compete on price thats when you get to the commoditization. Jeff told us this was an investment cycle for him when he does that it scarce me because its a warning sign where he floats it out saying we are spending money not seeing any earnings. Just be prepared for that. But were still cool thats the way. The broader question in in market environment do you want to would you be worried that higher multiple stocks and we have seen this already for a lot of Software Sector and cloud stocks for that matter come off. Isnt this the environment. Of course. Where you sell right now. Of course you dont have you dont have the growth to justify the multiple and you have a market that is not growth at all costs. So its nice that we saw the rotation into value. And cyclicality. But, again i think that was defensive rotation frankly with the exception of banks what we saw a lot of names are places where people feel comfortable hiding so that is the environment and as encouraging as it has been that hey, weve been rooking for market breadth and people said hey youre not getting the market higher with the transports and banks thats nice, although. What is the rotation to microsoft defensive as well . Is that what you say. Microsoft would have been megacap tech would have been other names would have been. But the. It crossed the line. The facebook chart and the netflix charts are terrible as you point out. Head and shoulders charts looking about ready to test down to the other shoulder. And these are massive market cap waiting in the market. We havent talked about apple. But apple is one place with google you have a kbipgs of chart, a valuation and some momentum. But with apple you dont get a d. C. Trade you dont get the head edwin, the same way with goog google are all over but do you have the company thats potentially in the cross hairs of a trade war apple. We know that. We no he that. We know that already with apple. And it seems to be impervious to that at this point not that not that it will never back off on that but it seems like the thunder it taken out of the out of the sail im going to mix metaphors at this point. Speaking of the trade war we have a news alert lets get to cakayla attach. The next right now of u. S. China trade talks take place in washington october 10th and 11th next we can a politically sensitive holiday on october 1st for the chinese. Then on october 15th you have the delayed escalation of tariffs. So this round of talks will fall just between those two dates on the calendar the treasury secretary has already confirmed that vice premier lei hao will be lead going. Et cetera unclear whether he will be special envoy allowing him to negotiate directly on behalf of xi jinping and that will be a busy woke for trump President Trump. The election campaigned announcing he holds a rally in minnesota on the 10th. But we could see another meeting. October 10th and 11th for knows playing at home the dates to circumstance zblool just to remeend us the lei huh had the stiemgts ever special envoy. For multiples rounds he has that titles. That was one reason he was meeting with President Trump in the oval office because they were on as the chinese saw it equal footing because lei huh was seen as being there on behalf of president xi he was then stripped of the title for a later round in may when the chinese backtracked from some of the earlier promises because of consternations among hard linesers within the Chinese Communist party. There is a divide over whether he has the title restored we dont know whether he carries it this zbliem Kayla Tausche in washington with the latest we expected the trade talks to happen but of course in in world anything could have happened maybe its good we got confirmation at this point. Its good we got confirmation i dont think anybody is priced by a headline that fifs you kind of a threeweek window to begin to prepare for a conversation that may or may not happen after an important communist holiday. That noun is getting in the way of look at the trade data last night. Hong kong and singapore, the production in singapore down 7. 57 . Supposed to be flat. Export data out of hong kong down seven straight months and not better its a concern. We have breaking news on the ipo market lets get get to dom at hs wow is all we can say with regard to endeavor, the megatalent Sports Management agency out there set to put the ipo price tonight to trade tomorrow. Breaking news courtesy of dow jones citing sources familiar that endeavor pulled plans for initial public offering, also that it was, again, that it is lacking due to weak stock market investor demand, according to a source at routers as well, so there is a lot of fluidity happening right now with regard to why endeavor pulled the pricing. Remember earlier today folks it reduced the size and scope of offering reducing shares they were going to sell and ds are the price of the smars in what some reports claimed was weaker investor demand sources told us at cnbc there were some good demand for shares at prices lower than the previous range but it now it looks like according to dow jones and reuters oh sources both saying they have pulled the ipo due to weak stock market demand after it scaled back the offering guys we monitor this kind of make phone calms on our side here but thats the reason we see this news cross the wires melissa back to you. Dom, quickly, the language is important. Its not just withdrawing or delaying its abandoning the ipo. Remember this is no formal announcement from he endeavor or the underwriting banks this is source reporting from both the wall street journal and the routers. Saying they are abandoning because of weak stock market demand there is no formal announcement from the company whether the plans will be resurrected in the coming days or weeks or when the ipo market picks up gwen when we hear back well let you know thats the reason why this is again source reporting from the news outlets was not a employ confirmation by the company. Thank you so many questions surrounding in endeavor deal. The first one is somehow do you get the eve of your ipo and realize at that point after scaling back the ipo earlier in the day, that there is weak demand for this thing the night before well, i think clearly peloton did not help, right . Just the sentiment. Right. Last night it looked like peloton would do okay. Maybe indicated at one point up. Its closed down a lot that clearly isnt good for them i think that, you know, we have a market that is sort of turned on money losing but growing entities, right. This one is sort of difficult. Its a mitch mash of different businesses, they say impossible to recommend kait. Maybe. But also hard to value and losing a fair amount of money. I think there is such momentum when they start down the process, it takes so much energy to get the ipo done. I mean, you want to really get it across the finish line. Almost at any price just to sell some and be public but i think shall it dsh theyre doing the right thing probably if it priced tonight it wouldnt trade well tomorrow almost regardless where they price. And forgetting some of the fact that we have seen some of the biggest ipos in 2019 and most under watered people with the names gichg the indications about where they thought the valuation was going to be. Tricky then. But here we are her he here we are with losses are upper backer lyft and the little one be the zooms so small they didnt make up for that at this point now you still have some of the funky valuation stuff going on and people are saying im much lower. And just that simple. I dont want to run ahead i mean i know were having a big ipo discussion later on in the show but here we are. In terms of talk bag this, you have a dynamic where first of all most of these guys come to the market nobody needs the stock anymore anybody wanting to own it bought it in the sophisticated market thats deep and liquid you have a number of companies where frankly you have leadership issues and people truly question whether this is the right leader to take them to the next phase they should have made the decisions before they went public in many cases because these are not starrups theyre mature and finally you have the banks think about wall street or whoever is doing this. There is a koelgts conflict between what the banks want and the Company Wants, or. And what the public wants. Or what the public wants and the Company Wants and leadership wants to get liquidity in the underlying business. To answer the question how do you get to the night before no one wants to believe you run out of gas no one wants to believe the ipo market is caving. Its aproeshs and it speaks to the risk off trade you see in the overall market all the ipos equate directly to risk off. Its funny because once upon a time in the market like a month or two months ago, you know these ipos were seen as the idiosyncratic growth source in the market and people wanted to go value. And peopled wanted to believe everything was a unicorn. And here we are, you know, doesnt make money cant see past profitability im done. Karen said before you want to you shall it over the goal line. There is a part of me that says you have to price it and you have to cut it just to get it out this is worse. I would rather read the headline that it was priced in the hole they had a gain attention. Smaller and just got. Something. But to say they back out of it thats aproeshs for the market. Thats right. And when they come back out if they come back out its a wall too high to climb. Let me add one thing. We saw square. When square came public it was a difficult tape ultimately they tied lets get it done sell a small of the Company Price it wherever we need to to and tease been a fantastic story. I guess, i think thats an easier sell than a company how does this raise the bar for the other ipos waiting in the wings . Well, throw in there smile direct club now down 35 . 23 bucks last wroek week. Even crowd strike down 50 from where it was the entire bar has changed i think you have to ask yourself, what has changed its not just a market philosophy and looking for profitability. You could look at the high jeeld market is having trouble getting deals done the Leveraged Loan Market is showing cracks when the ipo market caves in an environment where liquidity is alive and well i dont want to start. Is it a canary for the overall market. Of course it is. But you said how does it raise the bar. I think it might lower the bar when you see someone cancel. The quality of the ipo has to be much higher ford to actually successfully. Or priced lower, or priced lower. One of those has to give but i want the valet expect where we start to see the rotation again kick into high gear where people grasp on value versus any type of growth whether its a unicorn or large cap tech name. To your point about canary. Wework will be a note in the decades to come there may be bits and pieces. Where is your office. Where is your office. Did they redefine a commercial real estate business . Were. Were they disruptive . Yes. Were they led by interesting procure that is did some things. Yes but it doesnt mean it has to be a 50 billion Market Cap Company raising tense of balances in the private the equity and debt markets appear its interesting when i started this business in the late 90s there are the four letter names. Amzn no one knew what they did and no one used the products and didnt have revenue didnt have profits. But it was exciting things to think about how that was changing the world they were young companies. Thats i guess the point im making these are mature companies, very disruptive but the inability to articulate the path to profitability keeps them in the dog house for years to come. Taking a break had here tesla revving hire as ceo promiseding dlefr numbers. Later ontheme beyond meet teeming up with mcdonalds we have the details lives in times square in new york city, much more fast money right after this what if other kinds of plants captured it too . If these industrial plants had technology that captured carbon like trees we could help lower emissions. Carbon capture is Important Technology and experts agree. Thats why were working on ways to improve it. So plants. Can be a little more. Like plants. Woman what gives me confidence about Investment Decisions . Rigorous fundamental research. With Portfolio Managers focused on the long term. Who look beyond the spreadsheets to understand companies, from breakroom to boardroom. Who know the only way to get a 360 view is to go around the world to get it. Can i rely on deep research to help make quality Investment Decisions . With capital group, i can. Talk to your advisor or consultant for investment risks and information. Talk to your advisor or consultant to the wait did frowe just winners. Prouders everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. Welcome back to fast money tesla bouncing today as ceo promises record breaking delivery numbers on wait phil lebeau has the details. From a report in the website electric they say they have an internal employee email from elon musk where he says the company has a shot at the delivering 100,000 vehicles in the third quarter. Now, reme

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