The stock getting hit today despite a big upgrade. Should you buy on this drop . Its our call of the day Halftime Report starts right now. Welcome, good to have you with us on this wednesday. What a big day it is our Investment Committee is here joe, steve, carrie, we begin with the latest in the markets where stocks are clearly waiting on the fed i was going to go to you first, weiss, but you should. Go to weiss. Penalty box sometimes its best not to lean in, steve. What has to happen today in thats what i want to know first. What has to happen today powell has to come out and not be overly hawk in what he is p projecting for the economy so you have to have a cut and you have to have a dovish cut. You have to have a dovish cut. I think that we have a market that could be disappointed after today. I think a lot has been priced in in terms of the construct of the market itself. Lets keep in mind in january of 18, you had a cyclical pique. In september of 18, you had the fang pique and in july, you now have a growth pique. You need to have growth participating. When i say an s p growth pique, hon hon honor honey well what has to happen today. Fed has to cut a quarter of a point. The first thing they have to do. They have to cut theres you need more than that though, dont you . I dont think so. 25 basis points, but you node a message with the move, dont you . I think its that we feel this is a level from which the economy can continue to move forward. That the slide back, the Industrial Production weakness, the orders that Consumer Spending will be able to remain strong at this level and that we dont have to do more. He has to give a sign of in the economy. Theres a chance of disappointment today that would only become something if powell getting up there and stumbles twice hawkish if he gives you the wrong message after weve cut that quarter point and does not give us the confidence you were just talking about in the markets themselves, scott, yeah, then joe would be right i think this market tart starts to get some high level selling pressure on the market i dont think hes going the make that mistake. We all know, i think it was 100 after of liesman the oh day about the fact theyre going to a quarter. Say this is priced in because i think that it is but its all about his communication afterward. Liesman made the point earlier, you look at the data recently, again today, they could justify, theres really no reason to cut. But then you look globally and say okay, maybe there is a reason to cut. Theyve got to you know, work through both of those sides of the deal. Yeah so i think their mandate has gotten away from them a little bit so instead of focusing on your dual mandate, employment and stability of prices, theyre now take iing a look at what the rest of the world doing and can that come over to our shores even though it hasnt. Look i think at some point, the market is going to be disappointed and i think its inconceivable he comes out and is hawkish while cutting i think thats off the table hey, if he says though steve, you know, if he reiterates that whole mid cycle adjustment stuff, not going to go over well i dont think he makes that mistake again. What id like to see him do is take, is have the market take a little bit of shortterm pain and by that, i mean come out if you got to do 25 bips, do it, i dont think he should. Steve doesnt think he should. I believe. And weve had some others come on here. The economy is doing fine. And they dont have a lot more powder you know dry powder to go so what id like to see is give the 25 the markets telling them to do that then say look, this is it for now. And well see how thats not hawkish. If he says thats it for now, thats hawkish hes not going to word i like that, but okay, thats the message. Thats what were talking about. Let me tell you what the message should be. Boowere data dependent we recognize the risks in the Global Economy u. S. Economy is doing fine data is fine well be data dependent before we make more cuts. If the market trades off, fine, let it be that way, but cant aafford to allow the market to continue to didictate what he ds theres little chance the fed would be cutting if fed futures doesnt want to dictate a move in the market by what he doesnt do he doesnt want to upset the market to the point where you get a real disappointing move in stocks hes done that before. No doubt and the president himself is obviously we all know how much hes looking at market right so does not want to stumble that one in front of the president. Oh, i disagree. I absolutely do. Do you think anything powe powells done is the result of the tweets from the president . I think theres been an influence to what some of those who sit on the fed are voting for, yes i absolutely do. Yeah its not what he says and its do you think powell wants to cut, so youre telling me, so what youre saying is that despite fact that trumps been pressuring these guys on getting our rates closer to zero and to try to compete with the rest of the world in that area, youre telling me that right now, they have the reason for this quarter point cut . Is there a quality reason right now that you can come up with . Yes, the president s own trade war. Would they be cutting rates without that. No. You think they would . The datas good. It is we are going to cut everythings in question. I got to tell you something they have, jons talk eed about this for a long time they are going to continue to cut. When you look offshore, thats the reason behind. The president s had an influence and if you dont think so, then why do we make such a big deal because the its so unusual to have a president. It is but you dont think hes having some success i dont think hes influen influencing the fed at all i think if anything, the fed will take a hard line the other way because youve got to protect the sang sanctitity of the fed which the president doesnt do theyre not going to answer that we. What we know is that Federal Express for example reported a terrible quarter and you had adobe dispoint aappoint and i th market is just react iing to whats going on in the economy the economy has underlying consumer structure it doesnt have underlying strength in a number of industries that are affected by world demand related to china. Interest rates commodities. The fed has to look at that data and understand what the implications are so thats what hes going to use when he says we should cut the perfect time to bring in Steve Liesman. Hooe hes live at the fed. I know you listened to the whole conversation and im sure you have thoughts on many Different Things arent you the a little embarrassed z ive got to get my cake now and if i dont get i, im going to throw a tantrum and fit thats going to embarrass you like when your kid did it when youre in line at the air participant. I dont know if thats happened to you, but its happened to me. Thats what it sounds like i need my cake and a promise of more cake to come. I dont know, steve blame the fed chair somewhat he told people, he thought we were getting cake and then he change d the menu he chaked the menu on everybody after they started salivating over the cake. I think its going to be a quarter point. And well see. Thats what i think its going to be, scott i think hes got, i think his look, the market is one of his masters. His committee is also his ma master i dont know that his committee right now given where the data are, is in a place where they can precommit. I think its, the market is priced for a 53 probability of another cut in october and its more fully priced in by december i dont think the market is priced crazy but i do think that the data has to catch up with where the fed is right now and it is not in a place where it is justifying massive cutting. I think actually, scott, you derided it earlier, but the mid cycle adjustment concept is probably the one the fed is still operating under. I do not think theyre sitting in that room envisioning eight, nine, ten quarter point cuts down the road. I think its a quarter well check it out thats fine if thats what youre operating. Its what it is its mid cycle adjustment to people who are, who understand what hes talking about. Meant three great cuts and well check it out thats the m. O. Right now in if Federal Reserve if i had to make a guess. So, steve, were going to get the announcement this afternoon and somewhat similar to july 31st is there anything that the president can do in the next 24 hours if he is dissatisfied with what he hears from the frrz . Actual policies. Weakening the dollar are there any steps that we could be prepared for . Joe, interesting because the president has complaineded about the level of the dollar. It is actually within the per view of the purview of the treasury to adjust the value of the doll r lar if the president and treasury secretary want to go in and weaken the dollar, thats up to them to do and by the way, this is an interesting aspect to what were talking about here i think it matters a good amount if the fed does too little, that could strengthen the dollar again and that would i think be counterproductive right now. But if the president wants to do that, you b obviously he has never shied away from criticizing the Federal Reserve. And i agree a bit. I think it was you know, pete or jon its pete saying it does have an effect i think it does. You cant live in a vacuum these are human beings and are survey showed guys that 36 believe that hes talking about you, pete. 36 believe this has made monetary policy. So you think the president you agree with pete that the president s tweets have impacted the feds Decision Making . I think it does i think it perhaps creates a bias its a psychological imbalance. The it creates a bias, scott, for them to be looser than they would be its hard for them to say you know what, were going to hold the line save our powder for later on when we have real weakness when in this context, the president and by the way, the president has his minions. It creates a public issue for the Federal Reserve which the fed has been trying to kind of unwind the negative Public Relations problems it had in the post financial crisis era. So, steve, let me ask the question specifically. Which 25 basis point cut that powell has done and done one of them, is it the one hes done . This one coming up thats directly atritributed to trump tweets i think you ask a good question, steve torks nail down how i feel about this, but i dont think i can answer it. I dont think theres one single thing. There have been, by the end of today, there will have been three meaningful steps one is is it reversed course from hiking and then it cut and then its going to cut again today. So those are three meaningful steps. I dont know maybe theres one extra quarter point cut in there maybe the december hike, you were talking about that, steve, about their need to protect the credibility. Maybe that hike would not have happened had the president been silent well see youre going to be busy later and we know twitters going to be busy later, too see you in a little bit. Can ask one more. Weiss has one more thing. So you talked to the fed all the time to people that are involved. I dont expect you to identify who youre talking to, but is that statement the president s had influence upon fed policy coming from what youre picking up or is it purely based upon your view of whats going on its based on two things. One is we did our fed survey and about you know, a third of the people think or actually 40 believe its had an impact is that screen up . You guys are great in the background there really nicely done we didnt even plan. But theres the guys getting it together to show you the data thats one thing you know off the record, im not picking that up from fed officials. Off the record though, they are saying they hear what the president s saying and it aint easy to make policy in this context. Well i hear you, but thats different. May not be easy. When you know youre going to g get smacked around on everything you do or dont, but that doesnt necessarily mean its n influenced the Decision Making and vote taking behind the door. Well see. Steve, thank you as always Steve Liesman for us carrie mentioned while ago fedex getting hammered today missed earnings estimates. The big issue seems to be the commentary, is this a fedex problem . That theyve had management missteps and failed to recognize it that was the Deutsche Bank comment. Price targets coming down. Bigger picture or fedex . I think this company has that had this series of mistakes for years and one could say the fact theyve walked from the amazon business might be a mistake also or to figure out a way to compromise there on the other hand, they are an enormous carrier of product around the world and to see the level of weakness that you saw in the numbers, the volumes just werent good and you have to attribute some of that to Global Demand thats softened so theyre not the only company thats seeing it this may be a fedex problem. In particular, but i think its emblemmatic of what you might see from other companies that are going to be reporting over the next few weeks thats fair. The analysts who i spoke to in the ls hour said you cant attribute everything to selfinflicted Management Issues that the global picture has something to do with this story. Superior executions coming from which side though we heard from ups back in july they say not from fed eck they crushed it you look at fedex, their execution strategy has not worked ups has put more into what theyre doing. Their far larger Ground Transportation than fedex is because of that, they are similar companies. Obviously. But i think when you really look at them, there is some differences that you could look at and say this one is more exposed here versus this one because of that, just take a look at coming into yesterday. The outperformance of ups versus fedex. I think that explains it to you right away you look at ups. Had a great year its gone with the market. Tp sligs p slight outperforminge s p. Fedex, struggling. I think says more about fedex, what we heard last night, than it does about the entire economy. Upz ups has been the place to put money year to date either way with fedex, whether the Economic Contraction globally or selfinflicted problems at fedex, you really cant look at it right now, but in fedexs defense, i dont think people recognized the significant of the cyber attack on tnt when it happened. Thats fair it was mention ed as well in tht interview. Thats incredibly important and thats been allowing for a significant loss of market share in europe to ups buying fedex today . Im looking at it its historically ridiculously cheap. You take if their numbers are right. I would take when you cut your guidance by 20 , theyre smart enough to make them right. Hope so made that mistake before. With other companies so look, cheap enough to look at big interview comie ing up heres what else is coming up. A cnbc exclusive with Jeffrey Gundlach ahead of todays fed decision what he thinks powell should do and why he thinks Interest Rates have bottomed for the year and all day tomorrow on cnbc, the dlifing alpha investors summit is back for its ninth year in new york well explore the Critical Issues impacting todays markets with david taylor. Nelson peltz and more. Plus, well hear from sec chairman, jay clayton and joe kernen will sit down for a liriala. M. With Vice President devengphco the Halftime Report is back in two minutes. Oh, wow. You two are going to have such a great trip. Thanks to you, we will. This is why voya helps reach todays goals. All while helping you to and through retirement. Can you help with these . Were more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help. Voya. Helping you to and through retirement. Roku shares are sliding. Comcast unveiling a similar service, however the stock still up over 200 and googheim saying its going higher. They keep the buy rating weve made it our call of the day. Man, this thing has been a bonanza. Up 355 year to date this volatility today is is not the first day. Look, its clearly been momentum stock. Its overcome fund mamentals and valuation. Momentum in the fundamentals has been very strong, but b i dont believe this is the kind of market to go into for overvalued equities that are momentum trades so let it come back down to earth. I dont think it is yet then get involved talking about coming back down to earth. It is just touching the 50day moving average just touching it now with this decline. Something it hasnt done in many months, so i think steven is right. Its about momentum chases l and when does it come in again competition an issue. Yes before todays announcement from our parent, competition has been maybe a central risk. There has been that thesis to it no one paid attention to it its been impervious up to this point i would say streaming overall from a fundamental thesis of investing, i think i mentioned it last week akam 15 billion company. Its been named to several of the stock indexes recent ly tha focus on esg and way to play this wave into streaming i think its a little bit less volatile than roku until they report a quarter i used to own this stock one quarter, they do well. Next, they complete lly miss it then you have to start all over. Maybe theyve gotten religion now. If you look at disney, which had the enormous move when they announced the streaming service, since then, its been basically flat you look at other participants, netflix for example, has not been a good stock recently comcast, not great i think roku is now beginning to be seen as another one of the players in a market that is costly and theyre a participant where theres going to be more pressure and theres no reason where it should have that same level of the solution. Its right in with the mix if youre into low eer beta growth stocks. Ubs, they have a top ten on there. Not just talking about tech even though we associate growth and tech in the same conversation. Next err energy. Medtronic. Boston scientific. Dollar general diamond back energy. Facebook at the top of the show, i mentioned sgx, if we could pull up the chart the s p 500 growth etx got a focus on equal thety on low beta. The names we talk b about. American express honeywell. Microsoft. Names you were mentioning here that piqued in july. I