Joining us for the entire hour is tobias levkovich. Welcome. Thank you is this just a bounce from oversold conditions or would you buy into the rally i think that it is more of a bounce off oversold conditions look, things like energy, financials, have come back we were so hammered in the last couple weeks the issue that you need to resolve is earnings. That will be the more problematic phenomenon and so do you feel good about what earnings could be i think that earnings are still too high for the balance of the year and beginning of next year. I think consensus numbers for next year for example are about 10 , probably should be more like 5, maybe 6. So that is the issue so doesnt feel so good the white house pushing the message that recession fears are overblown. President trump tweeting today, our economy is very strong decembspite the lack of vision the fed but democrats are trying to will the economy be bad for purposes of the 2020 election. Very slchish before our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the the world. This is after the Economic Team made rounds with a similar message over the weekend technically we did not have a yield curve inversion. Inverted yield curve requires a big spread all weve had is a flat yield curve. It is inverted for a little bit. That is not technically an inversion. It was a flat curve which is a very weak signal of any possibility. And in this case, the flat curve is actually the result of very strong trump economy i sure dont see a recession. We had some blockbuster retail sales consumer numbers towards the back end of last week. Really blockbuster numbers and in fact despite a lot of worries with the volatile stock market, most economists on wall street towards the end of the week had been marking up their forecasts for the third and Fourth Quarter those comments all helping to give the market a big boost today. Lets dive into the other stories were eamon javers has n huawei and josh lipton has the conversation with tim cook and Rick Santelli watching the bob pisani at the New York Stock Exchange a lot of mixed messaging coming from the white house on the issue of huawei. Take a listen to what the president said yesterday which made a lot of people think that he was about to crack down on huawei here is that comment im talk position to ing to u we dont want to do business with huawei for National Security reasons well see what happens im making a decision tomorrow it could be temporary, maybe not. But well make a decision tomorrow so the president there saying that he doesnt want do business with huawei and then today we see the Commerce Department offer huawei a bit of a lifeline kicking a deadline about 90 days into the future that allows u. S. Businesses to continue to transact with huawei despite the National Security concerns that you heard the president talking about there. The administration explaining that as sort of a bit of a lag time design to let american customers of huawei adapt their supply chains. And figure out exactly where they will get their material from next. So why the disparity between what the president said yesterday and this new lag time kicking in that he is offering today . Well, a white house official tells me when the president says i dont want to do business with huawei, he is not talking about the whole u. S. Economy they say what the president meant yesterday was he was just talking about the federal government buying from huawei. And that is why sounded like maybe mixed messaging, but he says no, the president is sending the same message this whole time okay. Thank you. President trump spoke with apple ceo tim cook over the weekend as well josh lipton has the details on their conversation so scott, obviously concern for investors is whether that companys iphone franchise will get hit the with tariffs but President Trump is saying that he spoke to tim cook who made persuasive arguments about why that isnt a good bet. Take a listen. Tim was talking to me about tariffs. And you know one of the things that he made a good case is that samsung is their number one competitor and samsung is not paying tariffs because they are based in south korea and it is tough for apple to pay tariffs if they are competing with a very good company now, obviously if those tariffs went through, apple executives and many other executives would have to make a choice, absorb the tariffs or raise prices but possibly risk demand guys, back to you. Josh, thank you have you gleaned anything over the last, i dont know, three days from the president s trade strategy, the punting on huawei, the comments of cook we were in washington last week visiting with people up on the hill, wilobbyists, et ceter the message was that the white house wanted to push through usmca october, november, replacing nafta. They were trying hard to get a gentleman can pan trade deal by the u. N. General assembly. And they were going to be working closely with bore about R Boris Johnson to get something done there we know there is concern, but isnt trade problems everywhere. Trying for send a modifying message to china that sounds ambitious well, they have been negotiating with japan for a while, so it is more about when the president and prime abe are in new york, they can theoretically shake hands to the agreement. And usmca has been on the dockets of congress for a while. Lets get to Rick Santelli for a look at bond yields. Key for where stocks are trading. Yeah, definitely rhyming together it is hard to tell who is leading, but i can tell you who is leading the treasury, today it has been the short end. Look at the two year note yields, notice it is the highest yield of the day if you look at the 10 or 30 year, they are starting to come back, but they have lagged but that 30 year bond right now is testing 210, a significant level. Finally, the president mentioned the dollar being strong. He doesnt like it most americans like it, we get to buy things at a discounted price. Dollar index very solid. Back to you. Yeah, rick, going to be interesting. Jackson hole this week, i mean rick, i was asking earlier on halftime, what is more at risk, bonds or stocks. And i guess they both have a lot hanging in the balance of what could be said later this week. Oh, absolutely. And i think that the center stage ought to be mario draghi passes the baton and anything that we learn about the next administration with so many hints that we will see a rather aggressive stimulus announced on the 12th their next meeting. Rick, thanks. Dow and s p up for the Third Straight day bob pisani on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange with a look at how things are going and it is a broad rally and not just apple very broad rally so you have individual industrial names like boeing, United Technology helping, other tech names besides apple, micha microsoft is doing well. Walt disney, the energy names. Even chevron is helping for once and exxonmobile is doing well. Lagging are defensive names. So coke, mcdonalds, verizon, johnson johnson. United health to the down side what is missing is volume. Light overall. There is a few big etfs out there, utilities, vanguard another historic high, another big volume day high priced utilities continue to do well and Hong Kong Etfs are doing well and finally one of the only things down today is the vix were right near the lows for august breaking 17. Back to you. Bob, thank you. Joining us to talk broader markets, global al chief Market Strategist and head of cross asset strategy at Cantor Fitzgera fitzgerald you know you are cautious on the markets. Where do you stand on the recession fears with the inversion of the yield curve my concern really started with Global Growth slowing sort of towards the end of last year. We all seemed to have for gotten that there was a lot of talk of recession towards the end of the last year and i thought at that point of time it was a bit early, i thought the fears were overblown. Buts as the fundamentals continue to deteriorate the sole bright spot is the consumer. And that is still a result of relatively favorable financial conditions lending standards are tightening a little bit but as rates have come in obviously, that is a boon to the consumer so im concerned about a recession on the horizon, but we need to see the consumer weaken a bit more than weve seen thus far. Some say the selloff is overdo, some say wait to jump back in, what do you think well, i think chairman powell will be cautious in jackson hole with what he says. I think that it is actually a verymportant communication particularly because it is an intervening communication. And he did have two dissents so i think that chairman powell will kind of try to hit a single or double, not say too much, not say too little the make yrket is expecting qui bit. And i think the rally is wholly based on this idea that well get policy stimulus out of europe and that frankly the fed will be more aggressive than it has so far communicated so i dont think that we see much out of chairman powell and i think that the market will be disappointed with the minutes and with chairman powellsson he do you degreyou agree . I think that they are expecting him to say were still data depend ntd aentdependent you dont think he will say dont worry, we got your back. Wi dont think that he will use that terminology, but yeah, fed is here to support the economy. All he has to do is get rid of mid cycle adjustment, talk about an easing cycle. But he shouldnt. To get about what wall street wants. Fed chairman shouldnt be saying i wont talk about easing cycle, ill put in the words you want to hear. The words he said before were confusing to people. I get that, but most of the data were looking at is mid cycle correction, not recessionary even the word why do you say that others dont agree look, id have to see further credit conditions. Id have it see even Small Business credit harder to get by and they are not saying that id have to see new orders in the low 40s to believe that. I would have to watch Capital Spending collapse. We just did a study look at 700 plus companies on kapts specang and they are still saying growth so not like we are rolling off the edge i disagree with the overseas perspective. 75 of s p sales are north american dereiched and 10 are noncyclical international. Like food, beverage, tobacco, drugs. So were not were wagging the tail of the world not the other way around peter, do you want to push back i would say i dont think that the revenue at friday abuse number is correct. Ive done every single company. This is what i do for a living with all due respect. I understand. But moreover, the s p 500 in and of itself i agree with you it is only it is only a piece of the equation. Lending standards are starting to tighten and by the time frankly we see all these conditions emerge, were already in recession what one needs to do is look the earlier cycle indicators like the yield curve. Typically financial conditions are a much better indicator of future recessionary conditions than when the data is already screaming. By that time it is too late and the market is down double digits if you have 75 to 100 basis points of massive steepening after an inversion, you are on the verge of a recession we havent seen anything like that gist h every major bank is saying they are not seeing any deterioration with the do you remember consumr so if the consumer holds up, you feel good about the state of the economy . I think that the recession fears are there. The trigger for the recession after a ten year expansion is that the feds will tighten too much, will it be in trade war, is it some say it is tightened too much but the data would show up already. You would see that consumer falling, Manpower Survey of 30,000 companies saying that they will hire more people, that is not consistent with the data on a recession all right well leave it there peter, thank you coming up, more than 180 ceos of Major American Companies say Business Needs to do more than just make profitses. What it may mean for investors, the market and corporate performance. Plus calling the bottom in semis. Some specific calls on some trade sensitive stocks and later, liyft lockup expirin. That stock falling down 28 now since the ipo. Well discuss how new ipos pillfair it never questions the tasks at hand. But this year, theres a more thrilling path to follow. father kids. Change of plans vo defy the laws of human nature. At the summer of audi sales event get exceptional offers now who used expedia to book the Vacation Rental which led to the discovery that sometimes a little down time can lift you right up. Expedia. Everything you need to go. Expedia. Through the at t network, edgetoedge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. From managing inventory. To detecting and preventing threats. To scaling up your production. Giving you a nice big edge over your competition. Thats the power of edgetoedge intelligence. To the wait did frowe just winners. Prouders everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you preorder a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. 342 minutes left of trade dow up 266 lets send it over to mike santoli. Here is what we have ahead. Mail failu fill you failure to communicate and then ipos letting their insiders out of those stock, see if that matters for some big ipos seeking leniency, really about stock versus bond valuations, how bonds are giving a lot of credit to stocks in terms of valuation. And then unjustly punished, a whole class treated pretty harshly. First of all though, we are coming up on one year since the s p reshuffled its sectors and about 14 months since the xl etf began trading. Here is a chart since that day in june of 2018 of the Communications Services sector, the xlk, the tech sector and Consumer Discretionary along with alphabet which is the 15th anniversary as a public company, Biggest Holding what you will see is it has been the big underperformer there was a lot of concern that most of faang was going to move into the communications is services it has been a laggard. Looks like s p maybe top ticked the faang trade for a while. Google has been a bit of a weight on that as well the story with tech is softer. And communications i mean Consumer Discretionary is basically walmart holding its own right there. So interesting a lotof people thought communications was going to be the way to play this new tech world but hasnt panned out that way all right mike, well see you in a bit how do you play tech with so many different exposures we dont love the Services Side as much and semis are interesting. We did a Capital Spending study 700 plus companies and we are seeing Chip Companies kind of pulling back they are not adding too much capacity they get Pricing Power and the stock good for the chip stocks. Right they are not screwing themselves by putting on too much capacity. You feel like the faang trade can reignite itself between now and the end of the year . Just too many questions about growth and regulation. People looking for quality so to speak it is really about momentum what is working on the price momentum is what to a certain degree investors kind of chase because they have to perform and it is one of the problems for value stocks the value could be there, but if it is not working for you, you dont want to lose your job even though the stock looks attractively valued and youve underperformed google has been public for 15 years. I know. Seems like a long time. 40 minutes before the bell dow rallying full percentage point here, 261 points higher. It is a pretty wood based rbroa rally. Continuing the bounce since thursday afternoon things really started to sharply rally after the giant pull back earlier last week. Coming up, tech stock s surging. Faang all higher into the close. And well discuss tech more broadly with the former apple retail chief ron johnson, he is now ceo of enjoy find out how americans are shopping and what it mean for the likes of apple and amazon. Raymond james saying it is dipping its toes back into the water with semiconductors after downgrading it a year ago. They cite expectations allowing for a revision higher. Putting hone to work on nxp and on semiconductor just talking about the chips we like the chips i think revisions have been bad already. And if you look downward revision, you are at the lows historically but you have negative trade headlines, chip stocks will go down especially at huawei. Not necessarily because that is already in i mean very much in the far debt but it happens every time if you look at individual names, you can find the ones directly exposed barclays is initiate chevron as overweight and exingxon as el weight they site permian is the larger driver and firm says their investors should take note of the recent cbs viacom merger and newly formed Company Interest in stars which lions gate did acquire in 2016 maybe an m and a play there. Wanted to ask you about energy because it is a standout performer higher today up 2. 7 . But it feels like this one got very unloved the sector. Unloved, youre understating it despised it has been a horrific underperformer, not just for one year or month but for several years. Return on equity has been way below the rest of the market they need to get it management has been talking about it, but they have to show the discipline permian, they actually got undisciplined. So they have to return cash and prove that they are doing it i think the stocks a