What was behind this tim. I think we just got so oversold, mel. If you look at the tenyear, we were actually at 20 years we hadnt been this oversold in relative strength or how you want to measure it, but you can measure it we went from 204 down to kind of 161, 159 i think was the low on the 30year bond we got within a whisper, we might have touched, probably a bit north of the alltime historical low set on july 8th so when you came in this morning, it was bonds, banks and brent which were driving the story, and then suddenly that turnaround tuesday that we were talking about happened on wednesday. Again, i think you just came from a place of being extremely oversold the machines had gone to work. Whatever you want to say fundamentals on the equity market right now are such that i think bad news is bad news i think that thats not necessarily going to be a panacea in the way it has been, but i think for a day at least we are addressing the reality. I think things were oversold. We are just showing the chart of the tenyear yield, 173 is where we went out. But can you imagine that in the premarket session when the futures really started rolling over, we were more than 10 basis points lower. Lower. Thats an extraordinary intraday. I cant answer what was behind it, but we talked about this monday. We are looking on tuesday for a day with a market craters and spends the rest of the day recover, it was going to be your tell we didnt get it yesterday and we were disappoint we talked at the top of the show, we thought it was a bit of a head fake. Today is that day. I have no idea if it is the bottom or not, but if nothing else, today gives you something to trade against on the long side with the number of different stocks that im sure well talk about but basically your level is on the down side in the s p, now 2800 again, having no idea what the future holds in terms of this market, i think today gave you a very interesting tradeable bottom. So you feel better . Oh, much better today absolutely. Do you feel better . I do. We were all talking about turnaround tuesday and how it was unfortunate, we came in and the market was up. It doesnt feel very fleshing out of panic or and so it is very, you know, very good to see it down that big it was, you know, a little scary. So, you know, i like to watch the vix and we got up to not quite 24 i mean starting to get into panicysort of feeling, pete can talk more about that to me it is a day where i have to, all right, i have to start selling puts even though it is really scary to do because you feel like you need the protection but you could see it collapse i havent started thinking, all right, what am i going to buy yet. I would say a combination of the trade war, currency war issue we face right now, i think it was legit we were sold the way we were. Have we gotten to the bottom none of us know the answer to that right now i would say this many we bring it up all the time i specifically bring it up so ill put it on my shoulders. Algorithms this absolutely that turn from noon, mel, to the close on today was unbelievable how fast that move was to the upside so algorithms in my opinion were a big part of this. Were they a part of the down side absolutely. I bring it all the time to the. Net side, so im bringing it up to the upside. The algorithms were going to the upside it happens in both directions. It is a great example of that, karen brings up volatility we were stuck in the 12 to 14 in the month of july basically. Since we have gotten to august we are 18 to 24, and this volatility, i think there will be volatility within volatility. We pushed up towards 24 a couple of different times, pulled back. Today we actually pulled all the way back, back underneath 20, closer to 18, 19 i dont know that thats over with because i continue to see buyers of the vix and buyers of other different areas of the marketplace that tell me they dont think it is over just yet. Yeah, just, you know, the intraday move to the down side was almost as extraordinary, at least to the upside look, i woke up this morning, dow futures were flat, down small. It was not the day it was set up to be. By the time i got dropped done dropping my kids off at camp it was time to feel pretty concerned and it was time to actually assess what had changed this morning, and nothing had changed. If anything, we had some more reinforcement from fed governor saying that this could be an environment where the fed may have to change and be more aggressive the bottom line here is, again, back to the fed, i think the fed has been rendered irrelevant i think we have a case here whether it is ultimately good news, guy, i would pose it to you in other words, is it now good news that the fed no longer can equal good news on bad news . Does that make sense no, and usually usually in other words as we are seeing the selloff today and the rollover, et cetera, there wasnt the thinking kicking in this is going to make it more likely for the fed to again, i mean, i happen to think that central bank and Steve Liesman is coming on i dont want to bury the lead here, but well talk about Central Banks. But i think so many of them have rendered themselves irrelevant now the markets have taken over. I think to petes point. Including the u. S. Federal reserve. Well, without question. We will have that conversation but in terms of i dont feel secure it is a bottom by any stretch. My point at the top of the show is i think today gave you something to sort of shoot against on the down side for the first time in a while. In other words you have a tradeable bottom we didnt have it yesterday. We talked about it i think you might have had it today. Todays rate plunge isnt confined to the united states. Yields across the globe are collapsing as Central Banks aggressively cut rates in the past 24 hours weve seen surprise cuts from new zealand, thailand and india they join a slew of other nations that eased over the past few months the global tightening is even putting more pressure on the fed to do the same lets bring in Steve Liesman with more on this. Whats the point . Seymour said im irrelevant. No, not you welcome to the desk. But to the point is the Federal Reserve in control here . Are we being whipsawed around by what is going on around the world and in other Central Banks . I think tim is right to the extent that the markets have done substantial easing for the economy and for the Federal Reserve. The feds job now is to either meet that easing by bringing down rates or to go against it and if you look at where the probabilities are, they are substantially priced for more easing by the Federal Reserve. 100 chance for the september cut for some 30 odds or so for a 50 base cut now you move on and just about three cuts are priced in three more cuts in play exactly three more cuts currently in play i think thats a big deal. The question i think you have among other questions out there is to what extent does the fed have to act because other Central Banks are acting that becomes a question you could put in terms of is the fed the price maker or the price taker in this. It is not always one or the other, but take a look at the spread between the german tenyear and the u. S. Tenyear we have been at historic really historic wide and now it has come in. Thats what happened it is one of the things that happened today melissa, you and i were onset this morning during really extraordinary action around the world, when the german bund started hitting alltime lows and the u. S. Tenyear actually fell further, which was still on the Positive Side of zero. All right when you say the spread between the bund and the u. S. Treasury are compressed, you mean in the context of barely, but some, yeah. In the context of a belief put forth by pimco that u. S. Rates could go to zero, what then happens to that spread . Does that mean that rates around the world are that much more negative this is where you want to engage tim, but i will throw this idea out here, among other places you want to engage tim but definitely on this one here. Which is it is the price maker price taker argument did what we see happen around the world, both in what Central Banks did and markets did, in response to our cutting rates . In other words if we cut are they going to cut more i dont know that we can catch up with them i dont know that if we cut down to zero i mean it is hard to or if we want to. All of this is hard some grasp, even a discussion about zero u. S. Interest rates seems absurd to me and would have seemed more absurd if pimco hadnt tweeted it out as a real possibility not too long ago but would they go even more negative such that the spread itself is what the market is setting . Right and i dont know the answer to that. Well, what i think has happened, first of all if you think back in ovember, we were at 290 on the spread of u. S. Over germany if you think about where weve gone in the last, call it two months, thats where we tightened up and it really has been the last two weeks. From 30 to minus 50 on the bund, thats basically where you started to see the u. S. Catch up if you look at relative value spreads, to me theres no question the fed is the price maker. The fed is the one thats inflicted this upon the world. To be clear, it doesnt mean though that the other Central Banks, which have had much easier time basically spiraling to zero, and look what it has done to the Banking System in europe we know what it did to the Banking System in japan 35, 40 years ago thats what were up against here i think the fed talks about following the history books, is very aware of that. Let me ask you something, steve. Must the fed be responsive to our trade policy no. And they really dont want to be, and they would love to condition the market not to be if you look back at what bullard said the other day, we cannot be involved in every tit for tat trade development that happens, every give and take. Where the fed wants to be, which is somewhat different from where it is and where it can be, is it wants to be in a place where if you have a tariff put on, it would respond to clear evidence that it has hurt the u. S. Economy. I just dont think it is in a place right now where it can necessarily do that given the pressure from President Trump and given what is going on around the world so it is going to play politics i think theres a political backdrop to what is going on i will say one more thing about this spread. I dont think the fed targets this i dont think theyre in the business of chasing these yields lower. Right. They do know that there is someplace where it is just way out of whack with where the rest of the world is, and thats going to at least partially animate what they decide to do on rates. You want to make a guess as to what happens tomorrow i think we will have an interesting morning, thats what i think. Who knows . But what i am worried about is that all of this takes place in an orderly way when you have big moves like this, theres disruption, dislocation. I called my buddies on the repo desks and the tc markets there was some soft trade there but not the independent can of thing you worry about where you get major dislocations these where i say we have a problem. Markets can adjust and go crazy and up and down as much as they want it is not happening here. Steve, good to see you. Steve liesman. A pleasure. We have been talking about negative rates, negative bund rates for instance how exactly do negative rate, negative yields work our chairwoman did some homework for us. Right. Lets go to trade school. Lets go to school. Karen finerman. Were in this very unusual position of trying to understand what do negative rates actually mean, right . So lets look at the german tenyear bund. We can see in july things were a little better than where they are now, and it was down like maybe 28 basis points, negative 28 basis points yield. Okay but what does that really mean people are really confused does that mean you actually pay interest to germany, to the German Government for these bonds . Not exactly. So lets look what happens lets look at the price of these bonds. In july germany issued new tenyear bonds, around july 10th, and rates were still negative then. The way the mechanism actually works is you paid something north of 100 euros for these bonds, right lets say it was 103ish at the time you pay 103 and these are zero percent coupons. They do not pay any interest at all. At the end of ten years, you will get back 100. So now rates have moved more and more negative, and right now here we are, 106 so were at about 50, 60 basis points negative. So you buy the german tenyear, and this is the most active one, most recent one. You pay 106. You receive no interest nor do you pay any interest, but at the end of ten years, july 10th of 2029, you are going to get back 100. Thats the mechanism for how a new tenyear at a negative rate actually works so the coupon isnt actually negative they calculate it forward and take it off the principle . Right for what the market will bear of how Much Negative rates they will accept and 106 is where we are right now. All right karen, come on back. Do we have that pretty piano music, the more you know stuff . The more you know. If there is ever a time for that thats beautiful. Soothing, if i may. Did you have commentary to go along with that . No, it is interesting a lot of people seem to think somehow lowering rates strengthens economies. Thats a fallacy look around the world, what is going on again, i am probably the lone voice to say this, but if everybody is jumping off the empire state building, why should we . In other words if everybody is lowering rates, why should the u. S. I believe we are in a position to do nothing or raise rates, as crazy as that might sound. By the way, there are other people out there now blowing the same horn. So this is going to go on, it can and will with that said, look at the tlt today quickly. We talked about it yesterday 143 and change was the high back in july of 2016, and look where it traded today. So maybe you have in the short term a bit of a double top what does that mean . It means maybe yields in the u. S. For the short term have stopped going down maybe you can trade against that as well. Well, germany, who is in the center of the trade storm. Yes. You can make an argument that germany is the most aggrieved party here because theyre the largest export economy in the world relative to their overall gdp. If you think where they are on a negative basis, why when you hear about the ecb talking about different forms of stimulus they could provide, lets provide futures, why arent they printing millions of dollars in essentially bunds and buying u. S. Treasuries with the ultimate positive carry trade . What that tells you is that it is going to put continued downward pressure on u. S. Yields it tells you where the carry trade i think is more rooted in Central Banks than it is in hedge funds. The other part of this though is this is what steve started to talk about. He is calling around to desks around the street, repo desks. The key is if you think about the most leveraged players on wall street, i mean around the world, you are talking about guys playing on the yield curve, leveraged anywhere from 5 to 50 to 10, on low vol instruments where theyre trying to amplify. Thats where we have danger. Coming up, lyft hitting the skids in after hours following results. Plus, the one chart that says we could be headed back to december lows one top technician will break it down teve from the Nasdaq Market si much more fast money right after this we all feel, we all love, we all cry. Its part of being human. Sonoma county declared a homeless emergency in 2018. You have to know the individuals youre serving to understand their needs. Working with ibm watson we can bring together data spread across dozens of departments. That gives us a fuller view of the people we serve. Dear tech, dear tech, we need to look after everyone in our community. And we want to help our fellow human beings. Situ welcome back to fast money we have got an earnings alert on ridehailing company lyft, the stock making a uturn. Lets get to deidre bosa in San Francisco with more. Deidre. Reporter melissa, we saw shares initially surge on the back of those big beats in raised guidance shares, then went negative as the company said its lockup period is scheduled to end a month earlier than expected but it doesnt change the fundamentals which are improving. This quarter lyft gave indication of that across a number of metrics including revenue per active rider and said it is seeing an accelerated path to profitability, which should be music to wall streets ears now, as price wars ease somewhat with uber, lyft was able to cut down its sales and marketing costs. Those include the rider discounts. It improved its loss guidance this year by 300 million. Now, all of this, guys, raises the stakes for larger ridesharing rival uber which reports tomorrow it is getting a bounce on the back of these lyft results, but, remember, uber is global even if price wars are easing here in the u. S. , that is certainly not a given abroad it also has more moon shop projects it is investing heavily in, and, remember, uber has not said when it would reach peak losses, unlike lyft. So lyft analyst call is under way right now. I will get back on it but i will be back with some color. Thank you deidre bosa in San Francisco lets bring in gene munster. At first blush it looks like a great quarter. The reversal in the stock, does it have anything to do with the lockup expiration which is basically around the corner, august 19th . I think so, melissa it was an odd dynamic, the results were out about 45minute before the stock had that 10 dip, and that dip came a few minutes before the call started. So given that, i think this was related because it is about the same time that that news about the lockup seems like irrational behavior from investors that shifting a lockup period would have that kind of an impact, but i do believe that was, in fact, what is drove that pullback. Irrational in that, you know, that selling pressure of an additional 275 million shares that would exist in either august 19th or three weeks after august 19th or four weeks, and it doesnt make a difference exactly it doesnt really make much of a difference. Are you feeling better about lyft and its prospects than 24 hours ago i am, particularly about this concept of increasing revenue per user that was about that was up about 23 year over year it was about 10 higher than what i was expecting why that is important is when you think ab